Bracketology

Bracketology 03.10.25

MOCK SELECTION WEEKEND IS COMPLETE

As a quick reminder, I was honored to once again serve as part of a four-day exercise with a panel of six to go through each step of the NCAA’s selection, seeding, and bracketing process. Each policy, procedure, and principle was followed just like I do here for Bracketeer.Org.

This group exercise is healthy. Allowing for different perspectives on resumes, team stories, and injury reminders in certain cases. Most importantly, the selection committee decides each bracket slot by way of discussion and not by a silver bullet metric or blind voting. I thought the group this year did a great job of focusing on these areas and saving the metrics as a method to check our work instead of leading with the metrics, which can be a fatal flaw for others.

If you are interested in re-watching, all four sessions from the weekend can be found HERE on the YouTube channel under “Banner Brackets.”

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

As we charge forward with the second week of Championship Week and our final week of forecasting the bracket for 2025, Fielding The 68 is cranking up the heat!

Join me, Brad Wachtel, and Paul Fritschner as we break down the latest consensus projections and highlight several tournament hopefuls.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: North Carolina, Dayton, San Francisco, Boise State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Colorado State, Wake Forest, Ohio State, George Mason

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.07.25

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Join Us at 5PM ET today for Fielding The 68. Will be a full deep dive into all things NCAA Tournament related and we will field your live questions in the chat.

Begins Live March 3rd at 5 PM ET. The link will work for re-watching purposes as well.

MOCK SELECTION WEEKEND IS HERE!

The festivities began yesterday with a group of six of us beginning to discuss teams and breakdown resumes. 30 teams were voted into the field by the Mock Committee. The meetings will continue throughout the weekend, and on Sunday the group will build a final seed list and bracket.

If you are engrained and want to learn more about the NCAA Selection process, we follow it to the letter of the principles and procedures. Also, taking live questions on the chat as well. We appreciate the support and believe this is an invaluable exercise to gain additional perspectives on NCAA Tournament hopefuls and come to a committee decision.

Here is the link for the YouTube feed, you’ll be able to check out past years on this page as well. The group will begin tonight for Session 2 at 6pm ET. I will be joining a bit later due to our Fielding The 68 Show. Sessions 3 and 4 will be early. 9 AM ET tomorrow and Sunday. Grab some coffee and join us.

TODAY’S FORECAST - BRACKETING

To switch things up today, bracketing is going to take center stage. It is oftentimes where you will see someone struggle to build an acceptable bracket based on the many rules in play. Conference expansion and realignment has caused many to fear that bracket rules will need to be broken or seed lines will need to be compromised.

I am here to share some good news and offer some transparency. I build the bracket each exercise using the NCAA principles and procedures. I also do this for Field of 68’s consensus bracket that you see on social platforms. Happy to report, there haven’t been too many struggles as of yet and I think we should be able to get a clean bracket. BYU was moved down to a 6-seed last year due to Thursday/Saturday only religious rules, but I am sure the committee is doing everything possible to prevent that from happening again.

For anyone less familiar, bracket building begins at the top of the Seed List, and goes in order 1-68. That simple. Auburn will be the top team and head to the South Region and open the tournament in Lexington, then we assign Duke, rinse repeat until we’re done.

We will use today’s bracket to call out a few noteworthy items for every seed line..

1-seeds Auburn (South) and Duke (East) get their preferred locations throughout the tournament. Florida (Midwest) will open the tournament in Raleigh, and Houston (West) opens in Wichita. All teams being sent to their preferred opening weekend destinations and Houston gets the remaining region- West.
2-seeds Fairly simple with Alabama edging out Tennessee, the Vols open the dance in Cleveland and will be in the West Region. These are the third and fourth teams in the bracket from the SEC. By rule, they have to go to the open region where no SEC team is until full. After this, our following SEC teams will have more flexibility. Michigan State (Midwest) gets its preference of Cleveland to start, then Indy for regionals. Wisconsin (South) opens in nearby Milwaukee, and takes the last open region.
3-seed Assignments almost went smooth here. Texas A&M to the preferred South and opening in preferred Wichita. Kentucky gets the Midwest in nearby Indianapolis, Wildcats do have to open in Milwaukee, but not bad overall. Texas Tech (closer to West) opens in Denver and St. John’s (prefer East) gets to start in Providence. Not so fast my friend! Texas Tech and St. John’s had to be flipped because Houston from the Big XII is already in the West, and the East didn’t have a Big XII team. Both teams open in the same cities, but should they make the second weekend its now Tech to Newark and Johnnies to San Francisco.
4-Seeds. Iowa State gets the Midwest and final pod in Denver. Then Purdue takes the East and starts in Providence. Purdue/Oregon could not go to the Midwest or South because of previous assignments of Michigan State and Wisconsin. This is only a rule that applies to the first four teams from the same conference who go into the field on the top four seed lines. Once we begin the 5-seeds this goes away. Finally, we had Arizona go to the South because Houston already has West, Texas Tech has East, and Iowa State took Midwest from the Big XII. Lastly, Oregon gets its natural spot in the West. Both Arizona and Oregon open the tournament in Seattle. It actually looks really clean here for the moment.
5-seeds Maryland was shipped to Denver, due to Purdue already have the 4-seed in Providence. Clemson lands in Providence. Same half of the bracket as fellow ACC-member Duke, but no rule against it. Michigan heads to Seattle as part of the South Region. And Saint May’s gets the natural spot in the West with a path of Seattle, then San Francisco.
The 6-seed line starts with the policies preferring to send Ole Miss away from the SEC if possible, Rebels land in Denver (East Region). That only left the West for Mizzou. Next was Memphis, who preferred Wichita and slots in there. UCLA lands in remaining Milwaukee, opposite Kentucky.
The 7-seed line features the committee’s favorite team, BYU! Since the Cougars are limited to Thursday/Saturday only action, they immediately go to Lexington (East) as the only available option. Marquette looked to avoid Wisconsin (rematch) and Michigan State (2023 NCAA’s) and lands in Cleveland - West Region. Louisville also lands in Cleveland, part of the Midwest. Kansas heads to the South, opening in Milwaukee.
The 8-seed and 9-seed line features three SEC teams plus you have two SEC teams as one seeds. So Nine-seed Vanderbilt ended up in the same pod as Florida. A team they only faced once during the season, so it is a soft rule to make this permissible. 8-seed Mississippi State (East) lands in the Duke pod in Raleigh. 9-seed Georgia (West) lands in the Houston pod in Wichita. Everyone else slotted into place.
10-seed Baylor and West Virginia of the Big XII needed to go to Midwest and West due to two Big XII teams (Kansas and BYU) on the 7-seed line. That left Arkansas and Utah State to find homes. Arkansas played Kansas in the 2023 NCAAT, so they are permissible to place in the same pod with Alabama. Ark-Bama only played once this year. Utah State heads to the South and opens against Kansas in Milwaukee.
The 11-seed line includes one of the play-in games. The Indiana/Xavier game worked best to send the winner to Wichita. The other options were not working due to Big Ten and Big East teams already there. From there VCU, San Diego State, and UC San Diego were assigned in order. Later, we had to replace Xavier with Boise State because Boise State has already played Saint Mary’s before. Moving Xavier to the 12-seed play-in game to face Oklahoma.
The 12-seed line starts with the Xavier/Oklahoma matchup. The committee doesn’t prefer to send a winner to Seattle (far from Dayton), but it was the only solution today because Seattle is a Friday-Sunday site. After this, Drake, McNeese, and Liberty were slotted in order.
The 13-seed line starts with Yale, who is close to Providence (86 miles away). I tend to think the committee will send them farther to avoid the protected seeds. Yale ends up in Denver to face Iowa State. High Point takes advantage and will take that Providence slot. Akron and Lipscomb both have to go to Seattle. Akron played Saint Mary’s this year, so they had to the South and Lipscomb gets the West.
14-seeds were a no-brainer for slotting. Everyone went in order.
15-seeds Robert Morris could not be in the same pod as West Virginia (rematch), so RMU was dealt to Lexington where they face Alabama. All others slotted in nicely, including Omaha staying somewhat regional in Milwaukee.
16-seeds saw Play-in destinations go to Wichita and Raleigh based on dates and proximity to Dayton. SEMO was swapped with Quinnipiac in Dayton to help SEMO avoid a pod with Vanderbilt (rematch). All others fit well.

There you have it! A clean bracket. See, it’s not that crazy. Just need to go one step at a time and consider a bunch of rules. No biggie. Let’s take a look at our work:

BRACKET

FIRST FOUR OUT: North Carolina, UC Irvine, Ohio State, Nebraska

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Wake Forest, San Francisco, SMU, North Texas

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.03.25

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

I did not have enough time for my usual notes today. Fear not, however. A complete show is on the way!

A full-reveal-style show is coming in a couple of hours. Reactions to the consensus bracket and plenty of bracket talk is coming soon! I’ll be on to provide analysis and commentary.

Begins Live March 3rd at 5 PM ET. The link will work for re-watching purposes as well.

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: North Carolina, Oklahoma, Arkansas, UC Irvine

NEXT TEAMS OUT: San Francisco, SMU, Ohio State, Colorado State

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.28.25

MID-WEEK NOTES

Florida’s loss to Georgia in Athens began the process of separting the elite six teams with 1-seed worthy resumes. The Gators still have terrific overall power numbers, but are the 6th team overall in resume, despite owning the best win in the country at Auburn. Alabama, Houston, and Tennessee each slid up one place to allow the Cougars to land as a 1-seed for the first time this season.
Sometimes having an easy win can be the best recipe. It paid off for Wisconsin, which destroyed poor Washington and watched Iowa State and Texas A&M suffer rough losses. The Cyclones were stunned at Oklahoma State, sinking them to a 4-seed for the first time all year. Texas A&M took a home loss to Vanderbilt, which isn’t ideal but at least Vandy is a clear tournament team now. The carnage yielded the Badgers back up to a 2-seed.
Missouri was able to finally breakthrough as a 4-seed, thanks to a four-game losing streak from Purdue and a 30-point win over South Carolina.
Louisville was a surprise leap to a 6-seed today, earning the 24th overall spot. The Cardinals do not have a ton of upper-echelon wins, but the style-points combined with a lack of losses are adding up.
For the first time this year, Baylor is excluded from the forecast. A warning was issued last week, but the Bears did not do anything to improve matters, losing once again at Cincinnati. The Bears are now 10-12 when you remove Q4 results (aka easy wins). To make matters worse, Josh Ojianwuna is out for the season. I believe this will be discussed among the committee. The Bears are 1-4 without him so far, an OT home win over bubbly West Virginia. BU has lost road games to Colorado and Cincinnati without him in this stretch. The good news is they host Oklahoma State tomorrow, which should help them get on track. Finishing at TCU (Frogs already won in Waco) and hosting Houston, will require another win as well. Dicey.
The ACC bubble is a mess. We have SMU, UNC, and/or Wake Forest. The Deacs of course lost at home to Virginia. WF’s third bad loss this month. It’s tough to stomach. SMU won at California and continues to hang around with a wildly good 10-2 record away from home. North Carolina has started to pick up some wins but remains 1-10 in their 11 hardest games and has the home Stanford loss to deal with. I do think one of these three will find its way into the field. We all know who the committee chairman is, and I will leave it at that.
Boise State and San Francisco provide interesting options, but I'm not convinced about either one quite yet. Boise State is playing much better and picking up NCAA-level wins, just defeating Utah State rather handily. San Francisco, of course, beat Boise State in a home game earlier in the season. The Dons also beat Saint Mary’s and just got a solid road win at Oregon State. Before the Dons' loss, the Beavers had only lost at home to Oregon and Saint Mary’s.
Georgia is a road win and an overall win short of being included. There is no precedent for including a team with only one road win (at Georgia Tech) or a losing record (9-11) in meaningful games. The Bulldogs finish with at Texas, at South Carolina, and home Vanderbilt. So the bid is right there for them to snatch long-term.

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Several layers of bracket talk are coming soon! I’ll be on to discuss more teams and the overall tournament picture.

Begins Live February 28th at 5PM ET. Link will work for re-watching purposes as well. The panel, including me, will focus on mid-week changes and the bubble on today’s episode.

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: San Francisco, Baylor, Georgia, George Mason

NEXT TEAMS OUT: North Carolina, UC Irvine, Wake Forest, Cincinnati

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.24.25

WEEKEND RECAP

We are at a crossroads. Six supreme teams are 1-seed worthy. With Auburn and Duke being the obvious picks. Then there are Florida, Alabama, Houston, and Tennessee with incredible resumes for various reasons. They all handled business this weekend and the two tailing teams achieved high-quality wins. Vols won at Texas A&M, and Houston held off Iowa State. It still was not quite enough to warrant a change at the top quite yet. After all, Florida has just three losses total and the best road win money can buy (at Auburn). And Alabama packs such a mean punch with its eight wins in Quad 1A (elite) and nine wins against the field. Houston will take the court in Lubbock tonight. An opportunity for the Cougars to further cloud up the picture. Save the date: March 5th. Florida at Alabama.
Quite the opposite happened with the next six teams from last Friday!

From yesterday's forecasted seed list. This group went 0-6 this weekend. Crazy sport and that's why we love it. pic.twitter.com/sBgYdNMa6m
— Rocco Miller (@RoccoMiller8) February 23, 2025

Enter Michigan State. The Spartans did not see their name displayed at the February bracket preview. But they were mentioned as one of the next teams out by Bubba Cunningham, UNC AD, and committee chairman. Perhaps the exercise also served as a major wake-up call for the Spartans. They are 3-0 since with three critical victories. At Michigan on Friday, at Illinois, and at home against Purdue. They won each of these games by nine or more points, which clearly shows that they are in charge of the Big Ten race and becoming more appealing in seeding.
Saint Mary’s continues to climb. A night the program won’t forget as they handled Gonzaga in the Kennel, earning the season sweep, and clinching the WCC Title with two games to spare. Incredible stuff. Gaels are very close to that 5-seed line that they have landed on in recent years.
Oregon rallied late to win at Wisconsin and suddenly the sun is shining in Eugene despite it being the Winter. We all remember this team winning the first-ever Players Era event in Las Vegas. The Big Ten has been brutal at times, but this win helped considerably. The Ducks had four Q1 road wins, but all against non-NCAA projected teams. Now they have a fifth and a clear top-of-the-resume road win.
Bubble madness just continues. VCU sent George Mason into the at-large pool by taking over the A-10 race. That leaves us with no projected bid steals (unrealistic). And that means room for Indiana and Xavier, which I am not convinced on either but of course, both are coming off wins. I normally would not have Arkansas (who is two games under .500 in Q1-3 contests) included, but I am taking a shortcut! Arkansas hosts Texas on Wednesday, and I will have the winner in the field on Friday. So I felt it was logical to pencil in Arkansas as a placeholder for Friday. A true winner-in, loser-out game in Fayetteville coming this week.
Robert Morris has been scorching hot. The Colonials finally have reached the Horizon League mountain top! One win away from clinching a share of the trophy. RMU has won 12 of 13 and are one of the best stories in the nation.

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: George Mason, Boise State, Texas, San Francisco

NEXT TEAMS OUT: UC Irvine, SMU, North Carolina, TCU

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8