Building the preseason bracket serves as complete preparation for the season ahead. This turned into a year-round gig as soon as the NCAA granted the extra year to Seniors who wanted to stick around for another season. There was plenty of transfer movement, and plenty of teams opting to bring the band back together (Loyola-Chicago, Stephen F. Austin, Missouri State, and several others). The upcoming season promises to provide some intense battles and a very deep pool of teams. Around 60 teams received an “At-Large level” grade. We only have room for 36 at-large teams. That is a problem for over 20 programs, there won’t be room for them. And what about bid thieves? We may be kicking more at-large teams out in March.
In five short months, difficult decisions will be made by the NCAA selection committee.
This very busy offseason materialized into an overall rewarding effort. In addition to that, going through the bracketing exercise itself is always a valuable activity (about 5-7 hours in length per bracket). This consists of looking for repeat matchups, following bracketing rules, what happens if BYU makes it and can’t play on Sundays, etc. The popularity of Bracketology increases each year and there is a lot to explore, review, and analyze.
In 2021, we witnessed extremely unique circumstances. A variety of season lengths due to playing in a pandemic, teams that did not have a true offseason to prepare, and an entire tournament in the Indianapolis Bubble. The focus now returns to a normal season length, and hopefully limited or no canceled games. The very best coaching staffs will gain more of an edge, to install more offense/defense and overall lineup combinations.
Why do these Eleven leagues get so many At-large Bids?
The bracket preview brings us to the Multi-Bid conferences. With the power of TV Contracts and Coaching Salaries, the very large majority of control in College Basketball resides within these eleven leagues. That also translates to a lot of bids. In 2019, 35 of 36 At-Large Bids came from these ten conferences. The exception was Belmont, who had a fantastic resume but barely squeezed into the First Four. In 2021, all 36 at-large bids went to these leagues. The advantages for the eleven leagues at the top of College Basketball mean quite simply, more opportunities. Until the committee decides to not consider quality wins more important than a quality record, then the built-in advantage for power leagues will always be protected. The NCAA Tournament revenue model provides distribution per conference. For each tournament game in which a conference member participates, that equals one monetary share for the conference. The more shares for the conference, the more the league will be able to reallocate to their conference members. These eleven leagues today are steadfast at sending as many members to the NCAA Tournament as possible, motivated not only by success but monetarily as well. And for Gonzaga, the Bulldogs are set up to receive an even larger piece of the revenue due to their arrangement with the WCC.
Tournament Bid Breakdown
Let’s get into these teams who are fighting to get to the dance and eventually New Orleans come April. After spending months reading, listening, and tracking personnel changes, I’ve put my best guesses for this season together. I have considered the early, middle, and late-season scenarios based on coaching philosophy, roster makeup, and overall perceived team strength. You will notice that some leagues have a different league champion than the projected Auto-Bid winner. This was done by design, as it is realistic to see this in at least a couple of conferences.
B1G
The Big Ten once again leads the way with eight at-large caliber teams. The opportunity is there for others to break through with programs such as Rutgers and Iowa or even Nebraska. In general, the ratio of eight of 14 felt best given the quality of the top. Four Big Ten teams are in our Top 15. Rutgers is our first team out of the field, and without our projected bid-thief the Scarlet Knights would’ve been in. So we will consider them “At-large worthy.”
SEC & ACC
The SEC and ACC are projected to send seven teams dancing this season. The SEC has a revamped Kentucky team ready to return to blue blood status and Alabama may have the brightest coach in the game in Nate Oats. Tennessee is also loaded with talent. This gives the rest of the SEC several chances to collect quality wins. In the ACC, more parity is projected. Duke has the most talent, Florida State is a problem for nearly everyone stylistically, Virginia has less talent but the best defense and coach. Plus UNC and Louisville are really talented. We also thought Notre Dame could do a little better defensively this season to make that potent offense of theirs turn into enough wins to warrant selection alongside Va. Tech.
Mike Brey has a roster capable of returning the Irish to the Big Dance for the first time since 2017.
Big 12
Big 12 is very top-heavy with the big three of Kansas, Baylor, and Texas. I think Texas will be a lights-out team with all of the rich talents by March. However, I believe it will take Coach Beard a little while to really get things rolling. The defending champs - Baylor - lose a lot, but return enough and are so well-disciplined that they will be in the mix. Kansas brings a deep roster. Overall the Big 12 would’ve had six bids, if not for the recent Oklahoma State news (see video). Should that brutal blow ultimately send the Cowboys season into a tailspin, there is room for Oklahoma or even perhaps Kansas State or TCU to play their way into the field. Texas Tech cleaned house in the portal and West Virginia should also have enough to earn bids.
PAC-12 & Big East
The Pac-12 and Big East come in with 4.5 bids each. The PAC had such an incredible March last season, and the league is feeling really good heading into the season. After UCLA and Oregon, it is hard to know with certainty which teams will elevate. We like the Arizona teams, both U of A and ASU to step it up this season. Both have upgraded rosters and are ready to score the basketball. The USC Trojans are in our projected First Four with Isaiah Mobley back to lead the way. They’ll be joined the First Four with Providence of the Big East. Ed Cooley has some nice pieces around Nate Watson, and we fully expect the Friars to be tough late in the season, after a potential slower start. Villanova and UConn should be the class of the conference. Seton Hall and St. John’s have enough going for them to warrant a preseason selection. Too many question marks about Travis Steele and some injury concerns leave Xavier just out of the projected field for now.
Arizona’s Ben Mathurin is coming off of an outstanding U19 FIBA performance with Team Canada and is poised to lead Arizona back to the NCAA Tournament.
AAC & WCC
The American has two substantially tough teams in Houston and Memphis. The Tigers are the toughest to place because of all of the talent and program makeover with Larry Brown and Rasheed Wallace assisting Penny Hardaway. If the Tigers can hold it all together, watch out in March. SMU continues to intrigue and just missed the field. In the WCC, Gonzaga and BYU will be dancing again. The third bid goes to Saint Mary’s who returns everyone (includes Logan Johnson back from injury) and adds European sensation Augustas Marciulionis, who will absolutely turn heads this season. The fourth WCC team in Loyola Marymount narrowly missed the field.
The aforementioned Marciulionis pictured. Remember that Bracketeer.Org got you to watch Saint Mary’s this season, and thank us in March!
Mountain West & Atlantic-10
Two bids to each of these fine leagues. Although both have the potential to add more bids. The A-10 figures to be in the hands of St. Bonaventure who returns a complete starting five and layers some intriguing talent into the Bonnies bench. The Richmond Spiders are one of the teams running it back and we will put them in our First Four to start the season. In the Mountain West, there are three teams that have enough going for them, that we feel they all belong in the field. Consistent powerhouse San Diego State is back to lead the way, Colorado State has virtually everyone back and should be improved, plus there’s Nevada who returns their core players. The Wolf Pack were the hottest team in the conference last March, we have them in the First Four.
Matt Bradley figures to be an absolutely perfect fit to the Aztecs system as a deadly shooter and highly intellegent player.
Missouri Valley
The Valley got two bids last season, and that’s where I think they land this year. The quartet of Drake, Loyola-Chicago, Northern Iowa, and Missouri State is riddled with experience and talent. The call here is for our only projected bid thief - the Northern Iowa Panthers. We like this Panthers team in an Arch Madness setting behind AJ Green. Drake has what it takes to earn the second bid as an At-Large. Loyola-Chicago isn’t far off from making this a 3-bid league (with the inclusion of a bid thief).
Drake’s Roman Penn returns from injury and changed his jersey to number one. As long as he returns to form, there is no reason why Drake can’t win at least a share of the Valley Championship this season.
It’s time to reveal the predicted order finish for each of these leagues. Please be sure to take a look at the Darkhorse’s as well.
Without further ado, here is how I see the power conferences shaking out this year. And as always - lets all laugh about this together come April:
The Landscape (47 Bids)
Look for our complete Bracket posted soon and 1 thru 68 Seed List. Happy Hoops season!