The end of non-conference play is quickly approaching. The quality wins are largely secured. We are at one of College Basketball’s crossroads, the transition from Non-league play to league play. And yet, we are also wrapping up another important time period - between post-Multi-Team Event and Conference play tip-offs.
Each November, the majority of programs roll out their best-perceived players and rotations in an effort to maximize results, of course. Staffs of these programs usually have a lot of puzzles to solve. Who meshes best together? Who can actually defend? Who is efficient? Which players are situationally suited for which times in the game? These and several other mysteries are unearthed during the process of a handful of November tilts. Per my analysis, a quality gauge is to start looking at teams post-MTE (Multi-Team Event). Less than a month removed from the vast majority of Holiday events, perhaps we can use the data to see who is both A) Off the Grid and B) Going to hit their stride in January, aka be a league title contender. If all else fails, these teams are finding some recent mojo and warrant your attention. November 27th was the date that most events concluded, so we will use that as a launching point.
Which programs are hitting their stride after November 27th?
FAU has been an absolute juggernaut most of the season and especially in the past month when healthy.
Before we fully go off the radar, a quick shoutout to Florida Atlantic’s Owls. FAU has been lights out in this timeframe, going 4-0 and ranking Sixth! in the country overall. FAU ranks in the Top 10 nationally over this period in both offensive and defensive rebounding, eFG%, three-point defense, and two-point offense. The Owls do a ton of things very well that contribute to winning, which is why we pegged them high in the preseason evaluations. This level of dominance has surpassed all imaginations.
Now, let’s dive into what it means to be “Off The Radar” - at least for this post-Feast Week exercise together:
Criteria for Qualification
- Non Power Conference team
- Only looking at games since 11/27 (End of Feast Week and majority of MTEs}
- Looking for candidates who have been largely overlooked or got off to a bad start to the season.
- In the Top 100 nationally during these select date ranges to discover “trends”
Vermont
John Becker’s Catamounts had an unfamiliar November going 2-7. Some bad luck in tight losses against USC and UNCW, also a two-point OT loss at Cal State Fullerton added extra pain. There were some really bad performances mixed in there as well. If you can count on anyone to turn things around it is the six-time America East Coach of the Year, John Becker.
Sure enough, since that really rough start, the Catamounts are 4-0, which includes three true road wins. UVM has held opponents to just 20% (4th in the nation) three-point shooting during the brief stretch and notched an impressive road win against perimeter darlings, Colgate. As a team, Vermont has graded out to be the 28th-best team in the country, per Torvik, during this stretch. As far-fetched as that likely is, it is mentioned as a testament to how much better UVM is playing, especially on defense. Two games are left in non-league play before the America East journey begins. A home game vs. Toledo and a trip to play at Miami. Key chances for the Catamounts to continue building up for another A-East run.
It has not been easy to score against an improved Vermont defense in December.
Montana State
The Northern Classic took place between 11/25-27 in the Great White North of Quebec, Canada. It was the opposite of friendly to the Big Sky preseason favorite, the Bobcats. MSU went up there and lost three straight games and needed to do some soul-searching afterwards.
The staff leaned heavily on Jubrile Belo in Canada and noticed perhaps a drop-off in quality by giving him 26+ minutes on three straight days. In the past three weeks, he hasn’t been out there longer than twenty minutes in any single game and overall has been more efficient. Fellow British teammate, Great Osobor is 6-8, 245 lbs. and has seen his workload increase and in turn a bigger share of minutes lately. Osobor can score in bunches and his frame can be a consistent problem for defenses - particularly while Belo is on the bench taking a breather. RaeQuan Battle, an elite shooter at times, really stepped up in the Southern Utah win, scoring 29 points including seven triples. In a mostly down Big Sky, the Bobcats remain the favorite and have really shown some efficient signs of how they are going to repeat as champions lately.
Great Osobor has earned more of a usage share of late, and is a problem off the bench for MSU.
Utah Tech
Do you like surprises? Here is one for you: The Trailblazers of Utah Tech (formerly Dixie State) are performing like a Top 50 team efficiency-wise in the past three weeks and change. You can ignore the two wins over non-D1 teams (because I certainly am) and take a closer look at a five-point loss in Logan where the Trailblazers actually had a second-half lead and hung with the unbeaten USU Aggies from start to finish. This is not to say that UT is now a WAC favorite or even a contender yet, but it is fascinating to see how they’ve been able to improve. Utah Tech has quickly jumped 52 spots from 274 to 222 in KenPom since playing in its Feast Week event in North Dakota.
Depending on the matchup, 6-10 Tanner Christensen can just be a flat-out mismatch for opponents. The Sophomore transfer via Idaho had a dominant outing recently in a 12-point road win at Weber State, where he had nine field goals at close range. He can uphold his endurance (logged 30+ minutes on four occasions) with consistent play (84th in ORtg nationally for the season). The 5-11 Cameron Gooden’s hot outside shooting kept them close to Utah State, and that can open up things in the post. Also, defenses need to respect the abilities of 6-5 Junior Isaiah Pope. Pope went for 29 against Weber State and has been most efficient in this stretch. The only bad loss of the season came against North Dakota earlier in November, and this team remains a deep dark horse and could certainly play spoiler in the super competitive WAC.
Cameron Gooden is the straw that stirs the Utah Tech drinks. Gooden has a career-high 106.3 ORtg, three game MVP awards, shooting 42.5% from deep, and has three 20+ point performances.
Rice
The Owls were likely written off by many after getting completely dominated at Middle Tennessee in the way-too-early CUSA opener back on November 15th. That ugly loss combined with losing by 40 at Pepperdine on opening night had many analysts looking for other options while investigating the depth of Conference USA. Well in its past five contests, the Owls are 4-1, which of course includes the infamous game at Texas (following the arrest of Chris Beard) where Rice lost in overtime. Over the weekend, Rice punished an accomplished Northwestern State team by 37. Prior to that, the Owls secured a double-digit road win at Texas State and took care of Prairie View A&M. Rice is a very quiet 8-3 with three very loud losses.
Quincy Olivari has elevated his game in a big way during our preferred time frame for the article. Olivari has scored at least 22 points in each of the five games and earned KenPom MVP game awards in four of them. Olivari is able to get to the foul line with regularity, create opportunities for his teammates involved, and makes teams pay at the line (81% FT shooter). He has hovered around a 100 ORtg most of his career, and this season that metric has ballooned to a 111 rating. All signs are positive in recent games. The Owls will find out for real where they stand, as they head to Western Kentucky to resume CUSA play on 12/29.
Quincy Olivari is playing his best basketball of his Rice career and the Owls have really elavated their game as a team in the past few weeks.
Ball State
Fresh off its third straight double-digit margin victory, the Cardinals are splashing the nets all over North America. During feast week, this Ball State program under the new leadership of first-year Head Coach Michael Lewis learned some tough lessons in narrow losses to both the aforementioned Vermont program and San Jose State. The positive was a tight win over Missouri State to help build late-game confidence. Coming out of the Bahamas, the Cards went to Pittsburgh and played its best game of the year at Duquesne, only to lose in heartbreaking fashion:
The Cardinals didn’t dwell on that despite it being a one in fifty (estimated odds based on the degree of difficulty) shot. Ball State came back from it focused and ready to show that it wasn’t a fluke. As mentioned in the open, they’ve now steamrolled three teams in a row, and two of those were away from Muncie. Some of Lewis’ finest work early on was convincing Jaylin Sellers to stay at Ball State. Sellers, the Sophomore from Columbus, GA, has gone for 20+ the past two games. The 129.8 ORtg for Sellers is ranked 52nd nationally out of all eligible players. The 6-9, 240 lb. Peyton Sparks is healthy and contributing now as a Sophomore. He gives Coach Lewis a real difference maker inside plus bringing Jarron Coleman back to Muncie from Mizzou was key. This team is shooting 40% from three this season, and over 45% during the selected period since Feast Week. If Coach Lewis can achieve any kind of consistent defense, they will be a real threat to win the MAC Tournament in March.
Ball State HC Michael Lewis worked hard to assemble talent and now has Ball State in position to be a top four team in the MAC in his first season.