Championship Week: Projecting The 64, Volume 1
Hello, everybody! Welcome to The Bracketeer's Field of 64 projections. I’m excited to have you here. Over this coming week, we will go through projections for the Baseball Regionals and overall road to the CWS. Expect a daily update beginning on Thursday, May 23rd. That will take us right up to Selection Monday, May 27th.
Why Baseball?
I have long been fascinated with the way Regional hosts and regional draws are built. And of course, it is always exciting to determine who should be in, and who doesn’t belong in the Field of 64. Unlike College Basketball - the sport of College Baseball still uses the RPI Formula to help sort game results and teams overall. It makes the criteria for being selected a little different than hoops. Leveraging geography first and understanding recent committee history drives the process for region assignments.
To properly start the week, I analyze all the factors made available to the selection committee. Those criteria now include Quadrant records and the KPI rankings. This adds some additional nuance to the process.
To be ultimately prepared, let’s review who is on the 2024 NCAA Baseball Selection Committee:
How will the Projections be modeled?
I strive to stay in line with the core values of forecasting March Madness. A key to that is to forecast projections as if the season ended today, and not depend on projected results.
One of the enjoyable byproducts of this methodology for the week ahead is when a forecasted league champ enters the loser’s bracket at any given time, they will be replaced the following morning in the forecast for automatic bid purposes. A big reason for this is to stay nimble and ready for any chaos that will inevitably occur during Championship Week. I will only use teams who are in the winner’s bracket to represent each league’s automatic bid. If a league uses pool play, I will wait until pool play concludes to reallocate the forecasted representative, making things spicy around here daily.
If you love a school that needs to win its conference tournament, this makes the week a bit more fun, because you will be able to gain a sense of where your team might be slotted if they are hot and on the right side of the bracket this week.
Another key reason for this approach is to get sharp on bubble teams. There have been prior seasons where as many as seven or eight bids get stolen, which has tightened the bubble immensely and dramatically impacted the final bracket.
Which League is the most likely for Bid Steals this week?
The following leagues are the most prone for a bid steal, which would eliminate a bubble team with each bid that is taken.
American Conference - Any other team except East Carolina is a bid stealer.
WCC - Any other team except San Diego is a bid stealer.
Missouri Valley - Any other team except Indiana State is a bid stealer.
The three above leagues are just begging for a second league member to take a bid. They are piping hot red flag warnings.
The following leagues project to get two teams into the field, but perhaps a third bid would be possible with an upset this week:
Conference USA - Dallas Baptist and Louisiana Tech are locked in. That means the door is wide open for a third team to join the NCAAs from CUSA.
CAA - Likely a 2-3 bid league range outcome here. Charleston is the league champion, but not a lock to make it. Northeastern had the best RPI ranking (29), but finished in 3rd place. Huskies still have work to do this week. And UNC-Wilmington has fallen to 48th despite a strong resume - the Seahawks are not safe. Then there are the other teams looking to steal. This is a critical week in the league.
Big East - Projecting two bids. The Big East finished as the fourth-toughest league in America. Because of this, the Big East should get two bids, regardless of the outcome. If UConn wins the tournament, there is a world here where the Big East could be stuck as a one-bid league when it’s all said and done.
Big Ten - At this point, I think Illinois is going to get in. They finished 18-6 and were the clear league champs, also improving their RPI to 43. Nebraska is the only real lock in this conference. Indiana’s AD is on the committee and that has me pondering if the league can work some magic here to pick up a third team into the field. Perhaps the bid steal route, or maybe a committee-based reach to include the Hoosiers (15-9 in the league, but 59th in RPI) - it’s all in play for Selection Monday right now.
FIELD OF 64 PROJECTIONS - TUESDAY, MAY 21st
BUBBLE BREAKDOWN
Last Five In
60. James Madison
61. Vanderbilt
62. Xavier
63. UNC Wilmington
64. TCU
First Five Out
Troy
Cincinnati
California
Indiana
Lousiville