Projecting The 64, Volume 5
Waking up early (Pacific time) all week to build projections has been refreshing and enlightening. I’ve started to develop familiarity with the baseball at-large candidates similar to my primary focus - the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
Today, I’ll add a new description to the week’s work - bubble fatigue. The most important part of accuracy within guessing what a Selection Committee may or may not do, is to begin to understand what their conversations are like and take a shot on teams who you think might be popular in the committee’s eyes. Without further ado, let’s look at a cluster of bubble candidates this morning. The amount of committee influence on four bubble teams is somewhat mind-boggling.
Bubble Outlook
Florida and Kansas State - I have been bullish on the Gators getting in all week, mainly due to earning the magic 13 number of wins in the league, getting above .500 (barely), and AD Scott Stricklin’s potential influence on the committee. If I had a vote, I’d rather see a team from the CAA or a fourth PAC team get a chance instead of the 11th-best SEC team, but that’s just not what I see happening. For K-State, the Wildcats will finish in the mid-40s RPI (45 today) with a KPI ranking of 45. So the Wildcats are hanging in the balance. Enter Casey Scott, Exec. AD and Committee member. Casey will be looking to fight for teams in his league, while not discussing the Wildcats. TCU and Cincinnati (long shot) are also in the bubble picture. I’ve come around on K-State finding a way to grab one of the final spots.
Indiana - AD Scott Dolson is the Big Ten rep on the Selection Committee. Indiana had a nice year for a northern club and is worthy of selection. I think Dolson’s primary job for the league is to ensure they get three teams in. A win by Penn State would likely steal Indiana’s bid from what I can tell. It's still a win for the B1G and Dolson in this scenario. A Nebraska win today, and I think the Hoosiers will hear their name called on Monday morning.
Coastal Carolina - Matt Hogue’s final year on the committee. HC Gary Gilmore retiring. You’ve heard it all before. CCU has holes in its resume, but I do not dare to leave them out of the field with all of the factors.
TCU - The Horned Frogs have shielded themselves from national criticism. A 17-3 non-conference run is keeping them interesting and has held up the TCU RPI at 40 today. They are also strong in KPI at 29. My question - Is there room for both the Frogs and K-State to make it? My next question is, how important are win percentages in Quads? Because TCU is under .500 in both Quads 1 and 2, plus they went under .500 in league play. It seems dicey to me, but the groupthink I’ve seen out there suggests that TCU is relatively safe. I went ahead and put them back in the field today.
James Madison - There is a home still for the Dukes today. Dukes have to be big Southern Miss fans today. It is difficult to envision the Sun Belt getting five teams in, should Georgia Southern steal the auto-bid later today.
Charleston and Northeastern - These two worthy CAA teams are paying a heavy price in today’s projection. Ran out of room for both. I hope there is room for at least one of them. Bid steals in the AAC and MVC yesterday did not help, and we could see another one in the Sun Belt today (Georgia Southern).
Georgia Tech - I may have written off the Jackets a little early. They are certainly in the thick of this race for final bids. I thought they needed one win in Charlotte this week, which they failed to do. G-Tech remains out.
California - I did not expect this yesterday, but California will be out of the field today. I’ve said the Pac-12 will find a way to get four teams in, but sadly it’s harder to see that. Cal’s 192nd-ranked schedule out of conference is tough to overcome. The Bears do have solid marks in the quad record breakdown. Utah AD Mark Harlan is new this year on the committee, he has his work cut out to get the Pac-12 a fourth team. It’s a weird time because his school is going to the Big 12 soon.
Update - Hosts
Mississippi State - The Bulldogs are trying to overcome traditional RPI challenges (24th today) and leverage strong recent metrics - 16 Quad 1 wins, a KPI ranking of 12, and winning records in each of the breakdowns. Can the Bulldogs overcome the five Quad 4 losses? It is real close. After spending a lot of time comparing them to other hosts, I am leaning yes for them today. Oregon State just does not have the same amount of evidence for earning the spot.
Duke - Will face Florida State today for the ACC Tournament crown. A win and they belong as host in my book. I’ve been impressed with this resume most of the year as well. We will find out all the hosts on Sunday night.
East Carolina - Yesterday’s loss to Wichita State sunk the Pirates to 23rd in RPI, traditionally a major red flag for hosting chances. John Gilbert from ECU is on the committee. Will be interesting to see where they land. A 2-seed in the projection today, but ECU is still in the mix.
Dallas Baptist - Up to 21st in RPI with a big title game today vs. Louisiana Tech. DBU will be worthy of hosting, should the Patriots win today, but it might be too late since the committee is announcing later tonight.
San Diego - Steamrolled the WCC and WCC Tournament with no hiccups. They are up to 18th in RPI and that warrants a deep look at the Toreros. At last check, USD’s KPI ranking was stuck in the high 40s. Depending on how much the committee values this tool, could determine the fate of hosting.
Arizona - Normally, any Pac-12 Champ and Pac-12 Tournament Champ combo would be in line for a national seed, not just hoping to host. It was a down year this year, and despite the Wildcats achieving amazing success, they are still sitting at 31 in RPI and 30 in KPI. Will the committee reach and put regional games in Tucson?
Quick Shoutouts!
Niagara Purple Eagles are dancing for the first time! Joining Northern Kentucky and High Point with this distinction. Will be awesome to see Niagara in a regional after an impressive 38-15 season that included a dominant MAAC Tournament run.
The Tarleton Texans became the first school in a transitional period to win a conference tournament. WAC rules then handed Grand Canyon the auto-bid due to winning the regular season championship. Lopes thought their season was over, now they have new life.
Evansville winning over Indiana State to earn a second bid in the Valley was great theater. The Purple Aces had a solid year and took advantage of hosting this year’s conference tourney.
Nicholls has won back-to-back Southland titles. A very solid baseball league. The Colonels worked their way up to a projected three-seed and will be dangerous in regionals.
VCU beat Richmond four times during the Rams’ current six-game win streak to win the A-10 Tournament. Adds more to the future of the crosstown rivalry.
FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - SUNDAY MAY 26th
Bubble Breakdown
Last Five In
60. Indiana
61. James Madison
62. TCU
63. Florida
64. Kansas State
First Five Out
Charleston
Georgia Tech
Northeastern
California
Georgia Southern