Bracketology

Bracketology 02.02.2026

Another impactful weekend has come and gone. Due to time constraints and preparation for live coverage of McNeese-Stephen F. Austin tonight, I will reserve my overall observations for another time.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Missouri, Ohio State, Virginia Tech, San Diego State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: George Mason, Oklahoma State, Texas, VCU

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER or BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.30.26

MID-WEEK RISERS AND FALLERS

  • Michigan solidified its place as a top-seed for now with a narrow home win over shorthanded Nebraska, who was without Rienk Mast. The Cornhuskers impressed so much that they do not move from the best available 2-seed option. Another showdown for Nebraska this Sunday, rematching Illinois, who is a fellow 2-seed.

  • Houston handled road business at TCU. The comp between UH and Gonzaga was a tight one for the final 2-seed on Monday. This result made it more clear that the Cougars deserve the nod. GU has not played in anticipation for this weekend’s primetime matchup with Saint Mary’s. But while the Bulldogs rest, teams like Iowa State and Vanderbilt had dominant wins. It’s a slippery slope for Gonzaga at the top of the board because so much of their seed list position is predicated on perceived dominance, and they’ll need to reflect that in the power numbers (Torvik, POM, BPI).

  • The Vols have another quality road win under its belt, thanks to the OT win at Georgia earlier this week. The strength of the Tennessee wins have now earned them a 5-seed and bumped North Carolina to the 6-seed line.

  • Auburn’s four-game win streak has accumulated. The Tigers strength continues to build and they took the final 6-seed spot today with a better resume than Louisville, who slipped to a 7-seed.

  • Texas lost to Auburn, and there is no more wiggle room to include the Longhorns at this time. They were ultimately replaced by another big brand who barely have enough credentials to be selected, that would be Indiana. The Hoosiers earned its first NCAA-level win over Purdue earlier this week. They nipped out Santa Clara in a tight comparison for the final spot today.

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Today is Episode #2 of another outstanding season of Fielding The 68. Check us out every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT. Live analysis and discussions about all teams in the mix for March Madness. Can be found on the Field of 68 Platform.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Santa Clara, Missouri, George Mason, Seton Hall

NEXT TEAMS OUT: California, Stanford, Texas, Oklahoma State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.26.26

WEEKEND RECAP

  • Top five teams in the land have been quite elite. The issue for today is that I can only project four of them to be top-seeds. The debate rages on between Michigan or Nebraska. The Wolverines are no longer #1 in either the NET or POM, but they are still clearly the second-most powerful squad per the predictive measures. Nebraska is hammering the committee with more quality wins. The win at Illinois is platinum-level good after the Illini stole the show and won at Purdue this past weekend. But, I found the exercise to be quite unconvincing, so I kept Michigan as the last top seed today. BTW- look who plays on Tuesday Night: Huskers at Wolverines!

  • The teams in the seed list from six to 14 are a cut above the next group. A complete re-evaluation was required work to determine how high Illinois, Michigan State, and Texas Tech should climb. On the flipside where does Houston, Purdue, Iowa State, BYU slot in? That was a fun re-grouping. By the time I made it to the 15th-best team (Kansas), there was a clear drop-off in resume quality.

  • From 16 to 33, seeding can arguably get messy. UCF for example, stellar resume, shaky power numbers. Saint Louis has a stellar set of power numbers, but no data that helps them from a resume perspective sans the lone loss on the season. The big results were Tennessee’s road win at Bama, North Carolina’s road win at Virginia, and Auburn’s loud victory at Florida.

  • The 34 to 46 group are all within a bad result or two of being out. USC helped itself out tremendously by winning at Wisconsin on Sunday to escape Crown Tournament danger. N.C. State’s win earlier last week at Clemson really got the Pack on the right side of the bracket. Utah State stopped the bleeding by winning on the road at Colorado State. Texas pounded Georgia, and despite the Horns have a losing record in its biggest opportunities, I am taking my 2025 selection learnings and reconfiguring to include Texas today. Virginia Tech missed out on a big chance by losing at Louisville, and the Hokies are right on the cliff now.

  • Bubble gainers also included Missouri, California, TCU, and Butler. Those four are making strides toward getting in, but aren’t quite there yet in terms of total body of work. George Mason, Seton Hall, Baylor, and LSU took losses that it will need some work to make up for.

  • Conference races got juicy over the weekend! Texas A&M took over the SEC lead by themselves at 6-1. Bucky Ball in Texas has been unstoppable in January. Houston’s loss to Texas Tech, hands the Big 12 race solely to Arizona for now. Cats are at BYU in a Monday showdown coming up. Belmont is now tied with Murray State for the lead in the Valley after the Racers fell to UNI on the road. The two have not met this season, Bruins have a stronger SOR and will replace Murray State in today’s projection. South Florida is back as the American rep. Bulls have wins over Tulsa and FAU, who project as USF Bulls’ primary threats in the AAC five-way tie for first place at two losses each. UT Arlington capitalized on another Utah Valley loss to become the WAC rep today.

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Today is the season debut of another outstanding season of Fielding The 68. Every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT. Live analysis and discussions about all teams in the mix for March Madness.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Missouri, California, George Mason, Stanford

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Santa Clara, TCU, Seton Hall, Butler

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER/X & BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.16.2026 - Welcome to the Journey

WELCOME TO MID-SEASON

We made it, folks!

The 2025-26 midway point is essentially here for the upper echelon of College Hoops. Power programs are sitting near, above, or at 16 of their 31 games, so I’d argue that we can now evaluate 50% or more of the season-long data.

The ACC is the primary story this season as the league has made a leap from four or five bids to the majority of the conference now being alive and well following a mostly impressive non-conference.

PROGRAMMING NOTE

The plan here is to provide a much more elaborate set of thoughts and preview for the next eight weeks of projections following the upcoming MLK Day weekend, on Tuesday, January 20th.

Also, be sure to join me this Monday on Field of 68 for the debut episode of Fielding The 68. Show airs LIVE at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT.

bRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1: Mountain West (San Diego State). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year. However, in the age of super conferences - bid steals are sadly trending downward.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Texas, Oklahoma State, George Mason, Auburn

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Virginia Tech. Indiana, TCU, Creighton

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

2026 Preseason Bracket Forecast

The 2025-26 College Basketball season has finally arrived.

A preseason bracket exercise is once again part of the celebratory package of gifts today. The following bracket forecast is based on a number of factors including but not limited to: perceived team strength, perceived coaching strength, roster evaluations, strength of schedule evaluations, and conference tournament locations, including league tournament format.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0: The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids disappear per year during Championship Week.

FIRST FOUR OUT: West Virginia, Boise State, Nebraska, SMU

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Georgetown, San Francisco, USC, Memphis

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER/X: @RoccoMiller8

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