Bracketology

Bracketology 02.20.2026

WHAT A WEEK!

An eventful week to say the least. Let’s recap the most important changes:

  • UConn falls at home to Creighton. The loss is substantial as the Jays are far from a projected tournament team this season, and it happened at home. The door is open for Houston or Iowa State to take a leap of faith for the final 1-seed slot. This breaks a long-standing gridlock of the same 1-seeds since the first mid-season bracket forecast in early January. As we project ahead, Houston’s immediate game against Koa Peat-less Arizona tomorrow figures to give the Cougars the edge. UH has a clean resume to date and the edge in all of the listed power numbers available to the committee. Iowa State’s losses to Cincinnati and TCU allow room for skepticism for this glorified spot on the bracket until further notice. Houston punished Cincinnati in the same building as an example. Iowa State’s narrow win over UH on Monday was an evenly played game on the ISU home court. Deeper details are required to contrast and compare the two.

  • Texas Tech’s JT Toppin is sadly done for the season with a Torn ACL. In the process, the Red Raiders picked up a loss at Arizona State. Because Toppin is unquestionably one of the most important players and highest-paid players in America, this reeks of committee scrutiny. The remaining schedule may not teach us a lot, however. Five games to go, and three at home vs. K-State, Cincy, and TCU. I fully expect the Red Raiders to handle business there. If a slip-up occurs in those three games, the seeding discussion becomes more complex.

  • Michigan State annihilated UCLA and, after a tight comparison with Gonzaga, took the final 3-seed slot. Bulldogs headline the 4-seeds today. Gonzaga still has a Q1 road game at Saint Mary’s, and the entire WCC Tournament will be finished before the committee meets on March 11th. So no need to instantly sweat this one.

  • Alabama’s ability to outlast Arkansas in a 117-115 OT thriller helped the Tide regain Top 16 status ahead of tomorrow’s CBS Bracket Reveal show. Keep in mind, previous years have essentially not factored in some of the mid-week results because the committee convened too early in the week to account for the updates. If you see Vandy in tomorrow and no Bama, that is what likely happened once again.

  • Auburn’s losses hit a tipping point, despite having America’s toughest schedule. The Tigers are now 8-12 in games that don’t fall under Quad 4. That’s clearly not a successful season, despite owning a massive win at Florida. For Auburn, the remaining schedule will help simplify. Three more games against non-NCAAT forecasted squads should paint a clear picture. If successful, the Tigers will have an acceptable record. However, a home game vs. Kentucky tomorrow is first in the priority order.

  • VCU has been a resurgent group, ripping off 10 straight victories in the challenging Atlantic-10. The Rams showdown tonight with Saint Louis is the golden meal ticket. There won’t be another one like this. Won’t be easy. SLU home games have been beyond electric.

  • Utah Valley is the WAC leader thanks to a win over California Baptist last night and Utah Tech’s loss at UT Arlington. By the WAC law right this second, UVU is prohibited from playing in the WAC Tournament because of unpaid financials. The Wolverines are working through a formal TRO and injunction to that. If I had to put a percentage on this, I would think there’s at least a 75% chance that Utah Valley finds a way to play in this conference tournament. Therefore, until further notice, Wolverines are the projection.

  • Cal Poly’s late-night blitzing at Hawai’i opened the door for UC Irvine to take over the Big West race.

MOCK SELECTION COMMITTEE - TWOFOLD

NCAA MEDIA MOCK
A handful of my National Media Colleagues converged in Indianapolis yesterday to bring back the old Media Mock Selection. Great to see this came back. I’ll look to participate in a future year. This purpose was primarily to educate the major media folks on the process, how voting works, seeding, bracketing, etc. The process had to be trimmed considerably due to the nature of the beast. Our Annual Mock Committee does this in three days. The actual committee has four to five days to follow the steps. So. doing this in one day was a shotgun wedding for the fine folks yesterday. But, great to see it back. Also great to see Evan Miya (Analytics) and Jason Benetti (PxP) participate. There is a lot of bad info that circulates on this very precise process. This can only help educate the masses in a more effective way.

ANNUAL MOCK COMMITTEE
Yesterday was apparently Mock Thursday! Because the annual Mock Committee that I participate in held its first meeting as well. You can catch the entire two hours on YouTube, if you would like to get a breakdown of how a panel views the Top 16 discussion currently.

This group meets again for the full exercise beginning on Thursday, March 5th, through Sunday, March 8th. It’s the most thorough exercise possible as every NCAA Selection Committee step is followed by the book, much like we do here in every Bracketeer Bracket Forecast.

FIELDING THE 68 LIVE SHOW, TODAY!

Back for another outstanding season of Fielding The 68. Come hear about where the bracket stands every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT. Live analysis and discussions about all teams in the mix for March Madness. Can be found on the Field of 68 Platform. Join us!

Join via your preferred Social Platform. Here is the YouTube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@TheFieldOf68/streams

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: VCU, TCU, Auburn, California

NEXT TEAMS OUT: San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Arizona State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.16.2026

WEEKEND RECAP

  • Arizona fell at home to Texas Tech, and it was fairly simple to move both Michigan, which has only one loss, and Duke, which lost to Texas Tech in NYC, above them. Duke outclasses Arizona in wins against the field (10-9), Quad 1A heavy-hitting wins (6-4), and Quad 1 wins overall (10-9). The Red Raiders split with Houston, beat Duke, and won at Arizona. It’s a trio of wins hard to ignore. They don’t have a perfect resume by any means, but it’s enough to place them as a 3-seed.

  • Purdue took an important step forward by blowing out Iowa on the road. Interestingly, the Boilers have home losses to both Illinois and Iowa State. However, the Boilermaker body of work is clearly more fulfilling than the other two. Road wins at Alabama, Wisconsin, Iowa, and USC are an impressive collection. They also beat Texas Tech in the Bahamas, a win blossoming for extra credit today.

  • Virginia and Alabama are in a virtual tie for the final spot in the Top 16. The Cavs notched a neutral court win over Ohio State, another solid non-conference result against a big conference opponent. The Cavs only have three total losses, which helped break a somewhat of a tie here. Bama has wins over Illinois and St. John’s, no matter what Bediako stipulation you prefer to insert. I happen to believe that Bediako’s fiasco will be a non-factor. Alabama AD Greg Byrne is once again on the selection committee, and I fully expect him to calm any concerns. He’s a sharp veteran in that room.

  • BYU’s news yesterday of Richie Saunders tearing his ACL likely limits the heights for the Cougars on the floor. He is their most important floor spacer, a veteran leader, and a guy who can get buckets. It stings, and the Cougars almost lost a home game to Colorado after he went down early in the game. I will continue to evaluate the Cougars as the next weeks go by.

  • Wisconsin had a monster week. Be sure to read more about them over at Basket Under Review, as they have earned National Team of the Week honors. The wins at Illinois and over Michigan State have the Badgers in a safe space as a 7-seed today.

  • Bubble shakeups include a welcome to the field for TCU, breaking through slightly above Missouri. Tigers were blown out at home by Texas. Horns are up to a 9-seed. The Frogs won at Oklahoma State. Missouri has a losing record away from home and two home losses to Georgia and Texas. It has painted a concerning picture. Texas A&M continues to slip as well, taking some of the luster away from the Tigers’ win there.

  • Conference races were headlined by the Ivy League showdown between Yale and Harvard, which became an instant classic. Yale ultimately prevailed in OT and left Cambridge with the Ivy League lead. Hawai’i, California Baptist, Portland State, East Tennessee State, Wright State, Bethune-Cookman, and LIU all lost this weekend but maintained their edge in the conference races. Appalachian State was not as fortunate. The Mountaineers loss, combined with a miracle South Alabama comeback, puts the Jaguars in the projected field.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Missouri, New Mexico, Virginia Tech, Ohio State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: California, VCU, Seton Hall, West Virginia

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.13.2026

MID-WEEK RECAP

  • Illinois has lost two consecutive OT games, with the latest example bewildering HC Brad Underwood:

  • Iowa State lost to its second team that was on the outside looking in, by falling to TCU on the road. The Cyclones have a massive win from non-conference at Purdue in a beatdown, so that helps if ISU gets into a H2H with Purdue, but the problem is Purdue has the clear body of work edge now. Thanks to the win at Nebraska, the Boilers have seven Q1 wins, four in Q1A, and all seven of those opponents are projected to be in the field. ISU has five Q1 wins, two in Q1A, and four total against the forecasted field. Pretty clear that Purdue is in a higher category at this very moment.

  • That leaves the cluster of Illinois, Iowa State, and Nebraska now. Illinois and Nebraska split the season series, with the latest version convincingly going to the Illini in Lincoln. If I were a voter, I’d support the Illini to take the final 2-seed despite owning five losses. Keep in mind, the tough loss to Wisconsin came without Andrej Stojakovic, and of course, they’ve played for weeks without Kylan Boswell (who may be back soon, per reports). The Cornhuskers have a worthy resume, but recent play has knocked their power numbers down to around 14th in the country and quite clearly not at the Iowa State/Illinois threat of dominance.

  • Vanderbilt went to Auburn and controlled the game, winning 84-76. The Commodores are a clear protected seed, but for Auburn its beginning to get worrisome. They’ve played a crazy 15 games against NCAA-level opponents (leads the nation), but they are sitting at 5-10 in those games. In addition, they have won at Ole Miss, beat South Carolina, and Oregon in Quad 3. Every other game (six of them) falls into Quad 4. It’s a concerning body of work based on the record. Tigers play both Mississippi schools, Oklahoma, and LSU down the stretch. They’ll need not to slip up there, one would think. Before any of that, a trip to Arkansas comes tomorrow.

  • Miami’s win over North Carolina has the Canes safe for now. On the other end, UNC’s short-lived rise following the Duke win has come crashing back to sea level. The Tar Heels now need to figure out how to navigate life for a bit without Caleb Wilson.

  • Iowa took a surprising loss at Maryland. The Hawkeyes had been rolling for a bit, but the jury remains out after a loss like this. It’s a resume that will ultimately be beefed or drained by its closing stretch of games: two vs. Nebraska, hosting Purdue (tomorrow) and Michigan, and a trip to Wisconsin will tell the committee a lot.

  • Particular bubble teams really stepped up. Virginia Tech’s 10-point win at Clemson was massive. Perhaps capitalizing on the Tigers’ return from West Coast travel, but it will look just the same at the end of the season. Missouri’s narrow win at Texas A&M is a potential shapeshifter for the Tigers’ fate - they are clearly in for now. With the Aggies dropping three in a row, they are going from SEC contenders to the danger bubble zone. Texas A&M fell into the 40’s of WAB and SOR this week, and now has to go to Vanderbilt tomorrow. New Mexico’s win at Grand Canyon really impressed me, and it falls in Quad 1. Really would like to include the Lobos, but out of room right now. Let’s see who falls this weekend. TCU (mentioned above) is creeping closer, but there is a lot of bad on that resume; more wins are needed to convince the committee they belong.

  • League title races were fluid once again this week. South Florida gaining full control of the American certainly spices the bracket up. The Bulls have high major talent and are a realistic threat as a 12-seed. UNC Wilmington currently has command of a very complex CAA. A league that could ultimately produce a representative from any variety of schools - it is that deep this season, with 10 teams still alive for the four double-bye slots. Austin Peay picked up another key win at Queens on Wednesday for their ASUN title hopes. Troy fell at Texas State, which allows us to welcome Appalachian State to the projected field today for the first time in 2025-26. Thursday alone had a good chunk of movement:

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: New Mexico, Ohio State, San Diego State, TCU

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Oklahoma State, California, VCU, Boise State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.10.26

RECAP oF THE WEEKEND AND MONDAY

  • Top teams are finally falling! Arizona, Duke, UConn, and Illinois all have fallen since the last bracket update. Despite all of this, the top remains intact with Michigan moving ahead of Duke in the pecking order. Houston is making a strong case to be an eventual 1-seed. They have outperformed UConn according to the power rankings (POM, Torvik, BPI). However, the Huskies still own the stronger resume with their road win at Kansas, and neutral-court heavyweight wins over Illinois, Florida, and BYU.

  • The Gators destroyed Texas A&M on the road last Saturday. As a result, Florida is now a solid 3-seed and rising. The Vanderbilt Commodores took a bad home loss to Oklahoma and are now barely holding on to a 4-seed.

  • St. John’s is solidly a projected 5-seed at this juncture following its key win over UConn and hanging on to finally beat Xavier on Monday.

  • Clemson’s great week on the West Coast has the Tigers back up to a 6-seed. Fellow ACC members, Louisville, join them. The Cardinals put on a clinic over NC State on Monday in a flat-out demolition of a win.

  • UCF’s loss to Cincinnati knocks the Knights pretty far down the list. The Knights had a NET of 44 as of Monday, and its KenPom rank is now at 50th. Not a great situation for seeding, but UCF making the dance would still make folks in Orlando rejoice. They get four of the final seven Big 12 games at home. Only two of the seven games (at BYU and hosting Oklahoma State) are against tournament-level teams at the moment.

  • The bubble is quite fluid, with several teams presenting incomplete resumes. Miami might be the most interesting right now. They have done well on the road, beating Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Notre Dame, and Syracuse as all are Top 90 road wins, but none of them are forecasted tournament teams. The Canes also have the home loss to Cal, which doesn’t bode well if any of the voters compare the two side-by-side. Fortunately, Miami has a gauntlet of a finish coming. Hosting UNC on Tuesday and traveling to NC State on Saturday to initiate the ultra-competitive festivities.

  • Conference champs are mostly steady. The Temple Owls are tied in the loss column with Tulsa and South Florida atop the American Conference. Temple’s H2H win over USF has them getting the tiebreaker today. USF, of course, swept Tulsa. Temple and Tulsa do not meet until the season finale. Hawai’i benefitted from UC Irvine’s loss to UC Santa Barbara. Welcome back, Rainbow Warriors. Morgan State’s six-game win streak has the Bears making their first bracket appearance today.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: San Diego State, California, New Mexico, Ohio State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Virginia Tech, TCU, VCU, Boise State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.06.2026

MID-WEEK RECAP

  • Michigan State’s loss at Minnesota, Gonzaga’s meteoric loss at Portland, combined with Kansas earning a stunning road win at Texas Tech, meant that a full re-evaluation of the 3-seeds and beyond was required forensics.

  • Tennessee was able to win out on the evaluation vs. Texas Tech for the final four-seed slot. The Vols have twice as many wins vs. the field as the Red Raiders, and now have an edge in performance measurements.

  • St. John’s earned the final five-seed in a narrow comparison with Arkansas, North Carolina, and Saint Louis. The Johnnies are lacking an elite-level win, but have been dominant in enough road games. SJU is also 6-0 in true road games vs. the top two Quadrants.

  • NC State - The Wolfpack are not only establishing themselves as a true NCAAT team, but the Pack are also fast risers. Road wins at SMU and at Clemson are quality headliners at the top of the resume. NC State did a nice job of scheduling to own 11 top-two Quadrant wins. The Pack’s collection of these 11 wins is more than any team below Vandy on the board.

  • Utah State’s statement road win at New Mexico has them back on the rise. USU is winning comps over Villanova, UCF, and others today to be a Top 31 selection on the Big Board

  • We welcome Oklahoma State to the projected field. The Cowboys’ wins over BYU, UCF, and Texas A&M all came at home, but they also own a Q2 road win at Utah to help supplement. The NCAA WAB tool is a fan as well, now 39th there.

  • Seton Hall’s convincing loss at Villanova punts the Pirates well outside of the cut-line.

FIELDING THE 68 SHOW LIVE

Today is Episode #4 of another outstanding season of Fielding The 68. Come hear about where the bracket stands every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT. Live analysis and discussions about all teams in the mix for March Madness. Can be found on the Field of 68 Platform.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Missouri, San Diego State, Ohio State, Virginia Tech

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Texas, VCU, Seton Hall, West Virginia

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

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