Bracketology

Bracketology 03.06.2026

NOTES SINCE WEDNESDAY

  • A bit of shuffling was done to put Michigan State in the West and open the tournament in Buffalo to allow a smoother path for the committee policies surrounding the BYU Cougars. Illinois was switched to the East, which allows them to open the tournament in St. Louis.

  • Miami’s road win elevated the Canes to a 7-seed and sent SMU to the extremes of the bubble. The ponies have a pressure-packed game coming tomorrow at Florida State.

  • The Bubble is full of big games this weekend. I sent a full overview of the high-impact games to Twitter yesterday:

  • New Mexico’s home loss to Colorado State was a big hit to the Lobos tournament credentials. Indiana goes into the bracket as essentially a placeholder for the time being. As noted above, the weekend will be a separator for several teams, including the Hoosiers.

  • We have our first STUNNER! Belmont gets knocked off by 9-seeded Drake. The Bruins are an automatic bid for the NIT. Drake goes to the Arch Madness Semifinals after a really rough conference season. Bradley, for now, is the highest-remaining seed and into the forecast for the first time this year.

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BRACKET

FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia Tech, California, New Mexico, Oklahoma State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Auburn, USC, Seton Hall, San Diego State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.04.2026

MOVEMENT NOTES

  • Arizona leads the nation with 14 Quad 1 wins, and eight of its 10 wins over NCAAT-caliber opponents occurred away from Tucson. If not for the ridiculously dominant seasons that Duke or Michigan are having, these Wildcats would be a slam dunk for the top overall team in the forecast. Keep that in mind in case Duke falls to UNC or Michigan were to slip up against the Spartans later this week.

  • Speaking of the Spartans! A tremendous road sweep of the Indiana schools last week beautified the MSU resume, and they are making their debut as a 2-seed in today’s bracket. Spartans received a lot of help from the Big 12’s carnage of late to make all of this a reality.

  • Texas Tech was the big story to end last week, well, last night’s home loss to TCU undid a good chunk of the progress gained by winning at Iowa State. The Horned Frogs suddenly seem like a team that will almost certainly dance now, despite a wild resume.

  • Alabama fell at Georgia and Nebraska fell at UCLA last night; no team really took the opportunity to capitalize. Kansas fell at Arizona State, and Gonzaga has nine days off. Arkansas plays Texas tonight, but that may not give them enough juice to crack the Top 16 since the game is at Bud Walton Arena. It seemed like Virginia would benefit from some of this chaos, but the reality is that the Cavs don’t have the elite resume wins that their primary competitors do (i.e., Texas Tech, KU, Bama). On the other end, Georgia is all the way up to a 7-seed with the win, and UCLA is out of Dayton danger.

  • St. John’s has three tournament-level wins this year, and two are against Villanova. The non-conference loss to Auburn is holding them down a bit these days, and the Red Storm have to live with the home loss to Providence for the duration. So, SJU remains stuck as a 6-seed.

  • Saint Mary’s will join the 6-seed party. The Gaels’ big week to finish off WCC play is paying major dividends. Gaels gained help from BYU losing again yesterday and Kentucky falling at Texas A&M. That gives SMC the edge over both for the time being.

  • UCF took its second straight disappointing home loss last night vs. Oklahoma State. That keeps the Cowboys alive in the at-large picture. OSU finishes with a massive opportunity vs. Houston at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Utah State was swept by UNLV. UCLA hammered Nebraska as noted above. The Bruins have bypassed UCF and USU on the board today, but all three of them are 9-seeds.

  • N.C. State continues to spiral in the wrong direction. The saving grace for the Pack is the great work in scheduling, and earlier performances cannot be undone. Road wins at Clemson and SMU, combined with home wins over North Carolina and VCU, still keeps NC State reasonably safe for now.

  • SMU, on the other hand, continues to lose ground. For the first time, the Mustangs are forecasted to play in Dayton as part of the First Four. Hosting Miami tonight and traveling to Florida State won’t be easy this weekend. The Ponies could really use a win in at least one of these games.

  • Auburn knocked off LSU last night. The Tigers’ entire tournament profile comes down to the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa this weekend. A win on the road will be a substantial boost and ensure that the Tigers do not go over 15 losses for the season. The 15-loss mark has never been breached by an at-large selection. Should Auburn fall, they are likely done with the At-Large experiment because that will mean a minimum of 16 losses once you include the SECT loss. This is it, Tigers, can you beat the rival this weekend?

  • Oklahoma State earned a season sweep of UCF. Things can get very interesting if the Cowboys beat Houston on Senior Day this weekend. Keep your eye on that one.

SUPPORT FOR THE BRACKETEER PLATFORM

The Bracketeer Journey is more wide-ranging and far-reaching than ever before. Nationwide coverage, Non-Conference Schedules, Bracket Forecasting, and all 31 league coverage are the bread and butter of this platform. Our team is growing, and we can really use your support if you enjoy our work. Support Bracketeer by clicking the link below or by clicking the button in the top right corner of the page. Any amount helps us. Thank you for all of the contributions so far this season and for supporting our team in this work!

SUPPORT HERE

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, Virginia Tech, California, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Auburn, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, San Diego State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology Big Board 03.03.2026

BIG BOARD

The Big Board incorporates the 1-68 Seed List and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

New Conference leaders today are represented below as Automatic Bids:
ASUN - Central Arkansas
MEAC - Howard
Mountain West - Utah State
Sun Belt - Troy

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
New Mexico (First Four)
VCU (First Four)

Bracketology 02.27.2026

MID-WEEK HIGHLIGHTS

  • The Florida Gators broke through onto the 2-seed line for the first time in 2026. A fourth loss at home for Purdue sent the Boilermakers down the board. Purdue is now a projected 3-seed.

  • Today, there are five strong options for the four 3-seed slots. I’ll hold Gonzaga there above Kansas due to much stronger power numbers. GU has a road game at Saint Mary’s tomorrow, and a victory would give the Bulldogs the outright WCC Title along with a high Q1 win. Kansas heads to Arizona tomorrow with an even greater opportunity. We will take a deeper look on Sunday after the weekend dust begins to settle.

  • Alabama gains the final spot in the Top 16. The Crimson Tide is in an ultra-tight comparison with fellow SEC foes: Tennessee, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt. The Vols fell at Mizzou, which created an opening. Arkansas has a strong argument if the committee focuses on the H2H results among the four. The Hogs dominated Vandy and the Vols, while going to double OT at Bama. Easily the most impressive team in head-to-head action between the four options. The Hogs’ body of work does not have a road win stronger than LSU currently, and that remains their biggest issue for moving up.

  • Louisville missed another opportunity to impress. The Heels put the clamps down on the Cards early in the second half. The win for UNC made them the natural choice for the final 5-seed, while Louisville remains stuck as a 6-seed.

  • UCF made a ton of noise by completely dismantling BYU in its biggest road win of the year. The win likely makes the Knights an at-large team for just the second time in school history. Today, the Knights have climbed up to a 7-seed.

  • It was a rough week for the existing bubble hopefuls. USC, Santa Clara, Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Texas each had major opportunities to be firmly in the field, but they could not get it done. The Missouri Tigers were one of the few bright spots, earning a significant home win over Tennessee. Cal’s win over SMU was important as well. The Golden Bears are back in the field today. The naughty list includes Indiana, Auburn, and New Mexico, which lost games to non-NCAA-level opponents. Particularly worse for the Hoosiers, who fell at home to Northwestern.

  • San Diego State’s win over Utah State gives them the current inside track to the top-seed at the MWC Tournament. They are represented today as the Automatic Qualifier. Liberty has dropped two straight CUSA games and fell to a 13-seed. Tennessee State earned a key win at SEMO last night to enter the bracket as the projected OVC Tournament top-seed.

FIELDING THE 68 LIVE SHOW, TODAY!

Back for another outstanding season of Fielding The 68. Come hear about where the bracket stands every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT. Live analysis and discussions about all teams in the mix for March Madness. Can be found on the Field of 68 Platform. Join us!

SUPPORT FOR THE BRACKETEER PLATFORM

The Bracketeer Journey is more wide-ranging and far-reaching than ever before. Nationwide coverage, Non-Conference Schedules, Bracket Forecasting, and all 31 league coverage are the bread and butter of this platform. Our team is growing, and we can really use your support if you enjoy our work. Support Bracketeer by clicking the link below or by clicking the button in the top right corner of the page. Any amount helps us. Thank you for all of the contributions so far this season and for supporting our team in this work!

SUPPORT HERE

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1, San Diego State (Mountain West): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, Virginia Tech, VCU, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Auburn, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Seton Hall

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.23.2026

QUICK WEEKEND RECAP

Due to time constraints, a more thorough set of thoughts will be presented in Friday’s Forecast. For now, let’s touch on a few quick hitters:

  • UConn’s win at Villanova combined with Iowa State and Houston both losing, reversed what the actual committee announced earlier on Saturday. UConn is back in the saddle as the final 1-seed, despite the Cyclones being handed the throne as part of the Bracket Preview Show.

  • Tennessee’s win at Vanderbilt pushes the Vols into a protected seed, the final 4-seed. It is a dead heat with Alabama, Vandy, and Arkansas currently. Bama has a case for the best overall resume, but Tennessee won in Tuscaloosa. Arkansas has the strongest head-to-head results against the others, but owns a poor road resume and leaves room for extra scrutiny. Vandy lost their spot, but still have a win vs. Alabama. The Tide happened to be the one team Arkansas did not beat. Make sense? Good. Advantage Vols.

  • Wisconsin’s win over Iowa on Sunday allows the Badgers to slip in as the final 6-seed. Losses to Utah State, Kentucky, and Villanova helped create an opening.

  • Bubble will be broken down today on Fielding The 68. See info here:

FIELDING THE 68 LIVE SHOW, TODAY!

Back for another outstanding season of Fielding The 68. Come hear about where the bracket stands every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT. Live analysis and discussions about all teams in the mix for March Madness. Can be found on the Field of 68 Platform. Join us!

Today’s show is a full bracket reveal format. Just like the Selection Show with live reactions.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, California, Ohio State, VCU

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

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