Bracketology

Bracketology 03.04.2026

MOVEMENT NOTES

Arizona leads the nation with 14 Quad 1 wins, and eight of its 10 wins over NCAAT-caliber opponents occurred away from Tucson. If not for the ridiculously dominant seasons that Duke or Michigan are having, these Wildcats would be a slam dunk for the top overall team in the forecast. Keep that in mind in case Duke falls to UNC or Michigan were to slip up against the Spartans later this week.
Speaking of the Spartans! A tremendous road sweep of the Indiana schools last week beautified the MSU resume, and they are making their debut as a 2-seed in today’s bracket. Spartans received a lot of help from the Big 12’s carnage of late to make all of this a reality.
Texas Tech was the big story to end last week, well, last night’s home loss to TCU undid a good chunk of the progress gained by winning at Iowa State. The Horned Frogs suddenly seem like a team that will almost certainly dance now, despite a wild resume.
Alabama fell at Georgia and Nebraska fell at UCLA last night; no team really took the opportunity to capitalize. Kansas fell at Arizona State, and Gonzaga has nine days off. Arkansas plays Texas tonight, but that may not give them enough juice to crack the Top 16 since the game is at Bud Walton Arena. It seemed like Virginia would benefit from some of this chaos, but the reality is that the Cavs don’t have the elite resume wins that their primary competitors do (i.e., Texas Tech, KU, Bama). On the other end, Georgia is all the way up to a 7-seed with the win, and UCLA is out of Dayton danger.
St. John’s has three tournament-level wins this year, and two are against Villanova. The non-conference loss to Auburn is holding them down a bit these days, and the Red Storm have to live with the home loss to Providence for the duration. So, SJU remains stuck as a 6-seed.
Saint Mary’s will join the 6-seed party. The Gaels’ big week to finish off WCC play is paying major dividends. Gaels gained help from BYU losing again yesterday and Kentucky falling at Texas A&M. That gives SMC the edge over both for the time being.
UCF took its second straight disappointing home loss last night vs. Oklahoma State. That keeps the Cowboys alive in the at-large picture. OSU finishes with a massive opportunity vs. Houston at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Utah State was swept by UNLV. UCLA hammered Nebraska as noted above. The Bruins have bypassed UCF and USU on the board today, but all three of them are 9-seeds.
N.C. State continues to spiral in the wrong direction. The saving grace for the Pack is the great work in scheduling, and earlier performances cannot be undone. Road wins at Clemson and SMU, combined with home wins over North Carolina and VCU, still keeps NC State reasonably safe for now.
SMU, on the other hand, continues to lose ground. For the first time, the Mustangs are forecasted to play in Dayton as part of the First Four. Hosting Miami tonight and traveling to Florida State won’t be easy this weekend. The Ponies could really use a win in at least one of these games.
Auburn knocked off LSU last night. The Tigers’ entire tournament profile comes down to the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa this weekend. A win on the road will be a substantial boost and ensure that the Tigers do not go over 15 losses for the season. The 15-loss mark has never been breached by an at-large selection. Should Auburn fall, they are likely done with the At-Large experiment because that will mean a minimum of 16 losses once you include the SECT loss. This is it, Tigers, can you beat the rival this weekend?
Oklahoma State earned a season sweep of UCF. Things can get very interesting if the Cowboys beat Houston on Senior Day this weekend. Keep your eye on that one.

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BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, Virginia Tech, California, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Auburn, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, San Diego State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology Big Board 03.03.2026

BIG BOARD

The Big Board incorporates the 1-68 Seed List and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

New Conference leaders today are represented below as Automatic Bids:
ASUN - Central Arkansas
MEAC - Howard
Mountain West - Utah State
Sun Belt - Troy

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
New Mexico (First Four)
VCU (First Four)

Bracketology 02.27.2026

MID-WEEK HIGHLIGHTS

The Florida Gators broke through onto the 2-seed line for the first time in 2026. A fourth loss at home for Purdue sent the Boilermakers down the board. Purdue is now a projected 3-seed.

Today, there are five strong options for the four 3-seed slots. I’ll hold Gonzaga there above Kansas due to much stronger power numbers. GU has a road game at Saint Mary’s tomorrow, and a victory would give the Bulldogs the outright WCC Title along with a high Q1 win. Kansas heads to Arizona tomorrow with an even greater opportunity. We will take a deeper look on Sunday after the weekend dust begins to settle.
Alabama gains the final spot in the Top 16. The Crimson Tide is in an ultra-tight comparison with fellow SEC foes: Tennessee, Arkansas, and Vanderbilt. The Vols fell at Mizzou, which created an opening. Arkansas has a strong argument if the committee focuses on the H2H results among the four. The Hogs dominated Vandy and the Vols, while going to double OT at Bama. Easily the most impressive team in head-to-head action between the four options. The Hogs’ body of work does not have a road win stronger than LSU currently, and that remains their biggest issue for moving up.
Louisville missed another opportunity to impress. The Heels put the clamps down on the Cards early in the second half. The win for UNC made them the natural choice for the final 5-seed, while Louisville remains stuck as a 6-seed.
UCF made a ton of noise by completely dismantling BYU in its biggest road win of the year. The win likely makes the Knights an at-large team for just the second time in school history. Today, the Knights have climbed up to a 7-seed.
It was a rough week for the existing bubble hopefuls. USC, Santa Clara, Ohio State, Texas A&M, and Texas each had major opportunities to be firmly in the field, but they could not get it done. The Missouri Tigers were one of the few bright spots, earning a significant home win over Tennessee. Cal’s win over SMU was important as well. The Golden Bears are back in the field today. The naughty list includes Indiana, Auburn, and New Mexico, which lost games to non-NCAA-level opponents. Particularly worse for the Hoosiers, who fell at home to Northwestern.
San Diego State’s win over Utah State gives them the current inside track to the top-seed at the MWC Tournament. They are represented today as the Automatic Qualifier. Liberty has dropped two straight CUSA games and fell to a 13-seed. Tennessee State earned a key win at SEMO last night to enter the bracket as the projected OVC Tournament top-seed.

FIELDING THE 68 LIVE SHOW, TODAY!

Back for another outstanding season of Fielding The 68. Come hear about where the bracket stands every Monday and Friday at 5 PM ET / 2 PM PT. Live analysis and discussions about all teams in the mix for March Madness. Can be found on the Field of 68 Platform. Join us!

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BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1, San Diego State (Mountain West): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, Virginia Tech, VCU, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Auburn, New Mexico, Oklahoma State, Seton Hall

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Bracketology 02.23.2026

QUICK WEEKEND RECAP

Due to time constraints, a more thorough set of thoughts will be presented in Friday’s Forecast. For now, let’s touch on a few quick hitters:

UConn’s win at Villanova combined with Iowa State and Houston both losing, reversed what the actual committee announced earlier on Saturday. UConn is back in the saddle as the final 1-seed, despite the Cyclones being handed the throne as part of the Bracket Preview Show.
Tennessee’s win at Vanderbilt pushes the Vols into a protected seed, the final 4-seed. It is a dead heat with Alabama, Vandy, and Arkansas currently. Bama has a case for the best overall resume, but Tennessee won in Tuscaloosa. Arkansas has the strongest head-to-head results against the others, but owns a poor road resume and leaves room for extra scrutiny. Vandy lost their spot, but still have a win vs. Alabama. The Tide happened to be the one team Arkansas did not beat. Make sense? Good. Advantage Vols.
Wisconsin’s win over Iowa on Sunday allows the Badgers to slip in as the final 6-seed. Losses to Utah State, Kentucky, and Villanova helped create an opening.
Bubble will be broken down today on Fielding The 68. See info here:

FIELDING THE 68 LIVE SHOW, TODAY!

Today’s show is a full bracket reveal format. Just like the Selection Show with live reactions.

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, California, Ohio State, VCU

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Virginia Tech, San Diego State, Seton Hall, Oklahoma State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.20.2026

WHAT A WEEK!

An eventful week to say the least. Let’s recap the most important changes:

UConn falls at home to Creighton. The loss is substantial as the Jays are far from a projected tournament team this season, and it happened at home. The door is open for Houston or Iowa State to take a leap of faith for the final 1-seed slot. This breaks a long-standing gridlock of the same 1-seeds since the first mid-season bracket forecast in early January. As we project ahead, Houston’s immediate game against Koa Peat-less Arizona tomorrow figures to give the Cougars the edge. UH has a clean resume to date and the edge in all of the listed power numbers available to the committee. Iowa State’s losses to Cincinnati and TCU allow room for skepticism for this glorified spot on the bracket until further notice. Houston punished Cincinnati in the same building as an example. Iowa State’s narrow win over UH on Monday was an evenly played game on the ISU home court. Deeper details are required to contrast and compare the two.
Texas Tech’s JT Toppin is sadly done for the season with a Torn ACL. In the process, the Red Raiders picked up a loss at Arizona State. Because Toppin is unquestionably one of the most important players and highest-paid players in America, this reeks of committee scrutiny. The remaining schedule may not teach us a lot, however. Five games to go, and three at home vs. K-State, Cincy, and TCU. I fully expect the Red Raiders to handle business there. If a slip-up occurs in those three games, the seeding discussion becomes more complex.
Michigan State annihilated UCLA and, after a tight comparison with Gonzaga, took the final 3-seed slot. Bulldogs headline the 4-seeds today. Gonzaga still has a Q1 road game at Saint Mary’s, and the entire WCC Tournament will be finished before the committee meets on March 11th. So no need to instantly sweat this one.
Alabama’s ability to outlast Arkansas in a 117-115 OT thriller helped the Tide regain Top 16 status ahead of tomorrow’s CBS Bracket Reveal show. Keep in mind, previous years have essentially not factored in some of the mid-week results because the committee convened too early in the week to account for the updates. If you see Vandy in tomorrow and no Bama, that is what likely happened once again.
Auburn’s losses hit a tipping point, despite having America’s toughest schedule. The Tigers are now 8-12 in games that don’t fall under Quad 4. That’s clearly not a successful season, despite owning a massive win at Florida. For Auburn, the remaining schedule will help simplify. Three more games against non-NCAAT forecasted squads should paint a clear picture. If successful, the Tigers will have an acceptable record. However, a home game vs. Kentucky tomorrow is first in the priority order.
VCU has been a resurgent group, ripping off 10 straight victories in the challenging Atlantic-10. The Rams showdown tonight with Saint Louis is the golden meal ticket. There won’t be another one like this. Won’t be easy. SLU home games have been beyond electric.
Utah Valley is the WAC leader thanks to a win over California Baptist last night and Utah Tech’s loss at UT Arlington. By the WAC law right this second, UVU is prohibited from playing in the WAC Tournament because of unpaid financials. The Wolverines are working through a formal TRO and injunction to that. If I had to put a percentage on this, I would think there’s at least a 75% chance that Utah Valley finds a way to play in this conference tournament. Therefore, until further notice, Wolverines are the projection.
Cal Poly’s late-night blitzing at Hawai’i opened the door for UC Irvine to take over the Big West race.

MOCK SELECTION COMMITTEE - TWOFOLD

NCAA MEDIA MOCK
A handful of my National Media Colleagues converged in Indianapolis yesterday to bring back the old Media Mock Selection. Great to see this came back. I’ll look to participate in a future year. This purpose was primarily to educate the major media folks on the process, how voting works, seeding, bracketing, etc. The process had to be trimmed considerably due to the nature of the beast. Our Annual Mock Committee does this in three days. The actual committee has four to five days to follow the steps. So. doing this in one day was a shotgun wedding for the fine folks yesterday. But, great to see it back. Also great to see Evan Miya (Analytics) and Jason Benetti (PxP) participate. There is a lot of bad info that circulates on this very precise process. This can only help educate the masses in a more effective way.

ANNUAL MOCK COMMITTEE
Yesterday was apparently Mock Thursday! Because the annual Mock Committee that I participate in held its first meeting as well. You can catch the entire two hours on YouTube, if you would like to get a breakdown of how a panel views the Top 16 discussion currently.

This group meets again for the full exercise beginning on Thursday, March 5th, through Sunday, March 8th. It’s the most thorough exercise possible as every NCAA Selection Committee step is followed by the book, much like we do here in every Bracketeer Bracket Forecast.

FIELDING THE 68 LIVE SHOW, TODAY!

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BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: VCU, TCU, Auburn, California

NEXT TEAMS OUT: San Diego State, Virginia Tech, Oklahoma State, Arizona State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8