Bracketology

Bracketology 03.14.2026

NOTES

  • Thursday results have had their impacts and lack thereof over the years. So we take some of the results yesterday with that proverbial grain of salt as a chaser. Virginia is at a point that is clearly above Nebraska in nearly all categories besides best individual resume win (Cornhuskers win at Illinois is best on the comp). But is it too late for the Cavs to move up?

  • UCLA’s win over Michigan State was its best win away from Pauley all season long. Tyler Bilodeau gets injured in the same game, unfortunately. The Committee may be proceeding with caution here, despite the key victory.

  • The site will list the best eight teams who missed the projected field; however, I believe we are now down to Texas, VCU, SMU, San Diego State, and Oklahoma for three remaining spots in the bracket. The Aztecs and Rams are still playing. The A-10 and Ole Miss could shake things up further. So we will revisit the comparisons early on Sunday.

  • Louisiana Tech is the CUSA rep today after a tournament full of surprises. The Bulldogs take on Kennesaw State, another surprise, for the auto bid later today.

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BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 - MAC (Akron): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Oklahoma, SMU, New Mexico, Auburn

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Indiana, Stanford, Florida State, California

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.13.2026

QUICK HITS

  • Iowa State’s demolition (partly due to Christian Anderson injury) of Texas Tech has the Cyclones back in good graces for a 2-seed. The decision between Michigan State or Illinois for the other slot as a 2-seed is difficult. The Illinois evaluation tells you that the Illini body of work is stronger by a slim margin. This also means Texas Tech falls to a 5-seed. They will enter the NCAA’s on a 3-game skid and injury concerns.

  • North Carolina’s loss to Clemson and Wisconsin’s win over Washington gave enough of an edge to the Badgers to enter the 5-seed area of the bracket.

  • Villanova took a tough loss to Georgetown. Hard to think that the Wildcats can avoid the 8/9 game now.

  • Saint Louis escaped this morning over George Washington. The Billikens will certainly be dancing at this point.

  • Oklahoma continues to surge, they are in the thick of the under consideration board. Committee will need to watch the Sooners game tonight vs. Arkansas.

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BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 - Mountain West, MAC (San Diego State, Akron): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Oklahoma, SMU, New Mexico, Auburn

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Seton Hall, Indiana, Stanford, Virginia Tech

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.12.2026

POST WEDNESDAY NUGGETS + 2-BID MAC

  • HOT OFF THE AM PRESS: Miami-Ohio falls to UMass. Projection updated.

  • The top six seed lines remained unaffected. I took another dive with Iowa State, the four-seeds, the UNC-Wisconsin differences, etc., and did not see enough to make a change. Today, many of these teams will finally play a game. So we will see if anything happens to warrant a change.

  • The Selection Committee is a day into their proceedings. The bubble typically will fill up a lot of the Friday and Saturday dialogue in the room, so unless something earth-shattering happens (like UCF beating Arizona), the top of the board should be pretty stable.

  • One flip was made with Miami and Georgia swapping from seven to eight seeds and vice versa. The Canes have better overall road and away-from-home records.

  • Texas took a rough loss to Ole Miss to end its SEC Tournament abruptly. I still believe the Horns have done enough and will be in the field. Seeding favors them slightly as well to avoid Dayton. The H2H win over NC State in Maui really prevents the Pack from jumping the Longhorns until further notice.

  • SMU lost to Louisville in a tight one. Here is a breakdown of where the Mustangs stand:

Mustangs are still sitting there as a selectable option for the committee. Standardly, there are reasons to leave SMU out of the field. The BJ Edwards health status could be a factor in discussions within the selection committee room as well. Based on what we know today, they are the best option available, which can and likely will change with the MAC Tournament and other bubble teams like New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Florida State still playing.

  • No team has ever been selected with 16 losses. No team has ever been selected without being multiple games above .500. Auburn is still breaking two Cardinal Sins in Bracketology, should they not win the SEC Tournament and lose today.

  • Reminder: Forecasting 2-Bids to the Mountain West. The field has a 69% chance to cut down the nets per Ken Pomeroy. Plus, a Utah State win over New Mexico in the Title Game would give the Lobos a decent chance to grab a final at-large bid as well.

  • Oklahoma and Florida State are clearly playing well right now. FSU might fight Duke today based on how well they’ve played of late and Duke being down two players. The Noles would likely still need a run to the finals because they are 11-14 in Meaningful games, PLUS a Q4 loss to UMass. The Sooners have the identical 11-14 record as FSU, but are a tad cleaner with their worst losses at South Carolina and Mississippi State. Sooners get Texas A&M today, and it gets pretty interesting for them with a win. I don’t personally love that record, but many of these same committee members took Texas in the 2025 NCAA Tournament with an unprecedentedly poor 10-13 meaningful record. So the goalposts are shifting (which is why Auburn has better than a 0% chance as well).

  • Idaho, Lehigh, and McNeese are dancing! Particularly phenomenal moment for the Vandals. As someone who grew up in the Pacific Northwest and knows the history of Idaho basketball, it almost brought me to tears last night as I sat inside a Big West Opening Round game. The joys of Championship Week!

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The Bracketeer Journey is more wide-ranging and far-reaching than ever before. Nationwide coverage, Non-Conference Schedules, Bracket Forecasting, and all 31 league coverage are the bread and butter of this platform. Our team is growing, and we can really use your support if you enjoy our work. Support Bracketeer by clicking the link below or by clicking the button in the top right corner of the page. Any amount helps us. Thank you for all of the contributions so far this season and for supporting our team in this work!

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BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 - Mountain West, MAC (San Diego State, Akron): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: SMU, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Virginia Tech, Stanford, Seton Hall, Auburn

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.10.2026

NOTES SINCE BUBBLE CHAOS WEEKEND

  • Michigan State missed a last ditch, home run opportunity at Michigan. The Spartans remain settled in at the final 2-seed spot.

  • Despite Purdue falling once again, they still have one fewer loss than Kansas and they did not lose to a team as far off the board as KU did at home (Cincy). That combined with the H2H Boilermaker win at Alabama, keeps Purdue holding firm as the final 3-seed.

  • Alabama has credentials to move higher, however we already know that the committee had them 17th and they have the aforementioned home loss to Purdue, keeping the Crimson Tide as a 4-seed in all likelihood.

  • Texas Tech is a team in limbo, falling to TCU at home and at BYU last week. The Red Raiders, however, were also remarkable with this same team when they went to Ames and won. Until further notice, TTU stays a protected seed.

  • Tennessee took a clear drop for taking a home loss and subsequent “Road Win Exchange Program Enrollment” with Vanderbilt. Pretty reasonable to move the Vols to the 6-seed area. Wisconsin’s third big road win (at Purdue) has the Badgers in a dead heat with UNC for the final spot on the 5-seed line. UNC’s win over Duke is still going to likely wow the committee to some degree, and winning at Virginia has aged tremendously well for the Heels.

  • The Bubble is likely why you are here today. The Notorious Nine- Virginia Tech, Cal, SMU, Cincinnati, Indiana, Auburn, Oklahoma State, New Mexico, and USC all lost this weekend. While VCU won on Friday at Dayton and Santa Clara has won twice since then to likely wrap up a bid for good. Broncos can earn an Automatic Bid tonight with a win over Gonzaga. Following the ruckus, Stanford’s Tree grew on me all day Sunday. If throw the V-Tech win as a “NCAAT-level” win, the Cardinal have six wins against the board. A sneaky four-game win streak to end the regular season was capped with a win at N.C. State, giving Stanford a substantial boost. They are in as a placeholder last team in now. Amazing.

  • Forecasting a 2-Bid Mountain West for probability purposes. As a quick example, there is a 69% chance of a bid steal:

Courtesy Ken Pomeroy

  • Several new Auto Bids are in the forecast: Queens, Furman, Northern Iowa as clinched teams. Hofstra and Lehigh as highest remaining seeds. The chaos continues daily!

SUPPORT THE BRACKETEER PLATFORM

The Bracketeer Journey is more wide-ranging and far-reaching than ever before. Nationwide coverage, Non-Conference Schedules, Bracket Forecasting, and all 31 league coverage are the bread and butter of this platform. Our team is growing, and we can really use your support if you enjoy our work. Support Bracketeer by clicking the link below or by clicking the button in the top right corner of the page. Any amount helps us. Thank you for all of the contributions so far this season and for supporting our team in this work!

SUPPORT HERE

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 - Mountain West (San Diego State): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: SMU, Virginia Tech, California, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: New Mexico, Auburn, USC, Cincinnati

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.06.2026

NOTES SINCE WEDNESDAY

  • A bit of shuffling was done to put Michigan State in the West and open the tournament in Buffalo to allow a smoother path for the committee policies surrounding the BYU Cougars. Illinois was switched to the East, which allows them to open the tournament in St. Louis.

  • Miami’s road win elevated the Canes to a 7-seed and sent SMU to the extremes of the bubble. The ponies have a pressure-packed game coming tomorrow at Florida State.

  • The Bubble is full of big games this weekend. I sent a full overview of the high-impact games to Twitter yesterday:

  • New Mexico’s home loss to Colorado State was a big hit to the Lobos tournament credentials. Indiana goes into the bracket as essentially a placeholder for the time being. As noted above, the weekend will be a separator for several teams, including the Hoosiers.

  • We have our first STUNNER! Belmont gets knocked off by 9-seeded Drake. The Bruins are an automatic bid for the NIT. Drake goes to the Arch Madness Semifinals after a really rough conference season. Bradley, for now, is the highest-remaining seed and into the forecast for the first time this year.

SUPPORT FOR THE BRACKETEER PLATFORM

The Bracketeer Journey is more wide-ranging and far-reaching than ever before. Nationwide coverage, Non-Conference Schedules, Bracket Forecasting, and all 31 league coverage are the bread and butter of this platform. Our team is growing, and we can really use your support if you enjoy our work. Support Bracketeer by clicking the link below or by clicking the button in the top right corner of the page. Any amount helps us. Thank you for all of the contributions so far this season and for supporting our team in this work!

SUPPORT HERE

BRACKET

FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia Tech, California, New Mexico, Oklahoma State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Auburn, USC, Seton Hall, San Diego State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

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