Bracketology

Bracketology 03.12.2026

POST WEDNESDAY NUGGETS + 2-BID MAC

  • HOT OFF THE AM PRESS: Miami-Ohio falls to UMass. Projection updated.

  • The top six seed lines remained unaffected. I took another dive with Iowa State, the four-seeds, the UNC-Wisconsin differences, etc., and did not see enough to make a change. Today, many of these teams will finally play a game. So we will see if anything happens to warrant a change.

  • The Selection Committee is a day into their proceedings. The bubble typically will fill up a lot of the Friday and Saturday dialogue in the room, so unless something earth-shattering happens (like UCF beating Arizona), the top of the board should be pretty stable.

  • One flip was made with Miami and Georgia swapping from seven to eight seeds and vice versa. The Canes have better overall road and away-from-home records.

  • Texas took a rough loss to Ole Miss to end its SEC Tournament abruptly. I still believe the Horns have done enough and will be in the field. Seeding favors them slightly as well to avoid Dayton. The H2H win over NC State in Maui really prevents the Pack from jumping the Longhorns until further notice.

  • SMU lost to Louisville in a tight one. Here is a breakdown of where the Mustangs stand:

Mustangs are still sitting there as a selectable option for the committee. Standardly, there are reasons to leave SMU out of the field. The BJ Edwards health status could be a factor in discussions within the selection committee room as well. Based on what we know today, they are the best option available, which can and likely will change with the MAC Tournament and other bubble teams like New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Florida State still playing.

  • No team has ever been selected with 16 losses. No team has ever been selected without being multiple games above .500. Auburn is still breaking two Cardinal Sins in Bracketology, should they not win the SEC Tournament and lose today.

  • Reminder: Forecasting 2-Bids to the Mountain West. The field has a 69% chance to cut down the nets per Ken Pomeroy. Plus, a Utah State win over New Mexico in the Title Game would give the Lobos a decent chance to grab a final at-large bid as well.

  • Oklahoma and Florida State are clearly playing well right now. FSU might fight Duke today based on how well they’ve played of late and Duke being down two players. The Noles would likely still need a run to the finals because they are 11-14 in Meaningful games, PLUS a Q4 loss to UMass. The Sooners have the identical 11-14 record as FSU, but are a tad cleaner with their worst losses at South Carolina and Mississippi State. Sooners get Texas A&M today, and it gets pretty interesting for them with a win. I don’t personally love that record, but many of these same committee members took Texas in the 2025 NCAA Tournament with an unprecedentedly poor 10-13 meaningful record. So the goalposts are shifting (which is why Auburn has better than a 0% chance as well).

  • Idaho, Lehigh, and McNeese are dancing! Particularly phenomenal moment for the Vandals. As someone who grew up in the Pacific Northwest and knows the history of Idaho basketball, it almost brought me to tears last night as I sat inside a Big West Opening Round game. The joys of Championship Week!

SUPPORT FOR THE BRACKETEER PLATFORM

The Bracketeer Journey is more wide-ranging and far-reaching than ever before. Nationwide coverage, Non-Conference Schedules, Bracket Forecasting, and all 31 league coverage are the bread and butter of this platform. Our team is growing, and we can really use your support if you enjoy our work. Support Bracketeer by clicking the link below or by clicking the button in the top right corner of the page. Any amount helps us. Thank you for all of the contributions so far this season and for supporting our team in this work!

SUPPORT HERE

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 - Mountain West, MAC (San Diego State, Akron): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: SMU, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Virginia Tech, Stanford, Seton Hall, Auburn

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.10.2026

NOTES SINCE BUBBLE CHAOS WEEKEND

  • Michigan State missed a last ditch, home run opportunity at Michigan. The Spartans remain settled in at the final 2-seed spot.

  • Despite Purdue falling once again, they still have one fewer loss than Kansas and they did not lose to a team as far off the board as KU did at home (Cincy). That combined with the H2H Boilermaker win at Alabama, keeps Purdue holding firm as the final 3-seed.

  • Alabama has credentials to move higher, however we already know that the committee had them 17th and they have the aforementioned home loss to Purdue, keeping the Crimson Tide as a 4-seed in all likelihood.

  • Texas Tech is a team in limbo, falling to TCU at home and at BYU last week. The Red Raiders, however, were also remarkable with this same team when they went to Ames and won. Until further notice, TTU stays a protected seed.

  • Tennessee took a clear drop for taking a home loss and subsequent “Road Win Exchange Program Enrollment” with Vanderbilt. Pretty reasonable to move the Vols to the 6-seed area. Wisconsin’s third big road win (at Purdue) has the Badgers in a dead heat with UNC for the final spot on the 5-seed line. UNC’s win over Duke is still going to likely wow the committee to some degree, and winning at Virginia has aged tremendously well for the Heels.

  • The Bubble is likely why you are here today. The Notorious Nine- Virginia Tech, Cal, SMU, Cincinnati, Indiana, Auburn, Oklahoma State, New Mexico, and USC all lost this weekend. While VCU won on Friday at Dayton and Santa Clara has won twice since then to likely wrap up a bid for good. Broncos can earn an Automatic Bid tonight with a win over Gonzaga. Following the ruckus, Stanford’s Tree grew on me all day Sunday. If throw the V-Tech win as a “NCAAT-level” win, the Cardinal have six wins against the board. A sneaky four-game win streak to end the regular season was capped with a win at N.C. State, giving Stanford a substantial boost. They are in as a placeholder last team in now. Amazing.

  • Forecasting a 2-Bid Mountain West for probability purposes. As a quick example, there is a 69% chance of a bid steal:

Courtesy Ken Pomeroy

  • Several new Auto Bids are in the forecast: Queens, Furman, Northern Iowa as clinched teams. Hofstra and Lehigh as highest remaining seeds. The chaos continues daily!

SUPPORT THE BRACKETEER PLATFORM

The Bracketeer Journey is more wide-ranging and far-reaching than ever before. Nationwide coverage, Non-Conference Schedules, Bracket Forecasting, and all 31 league coverage are the bread and butter of this platform. Our team is growing, and we can really use your support if you enjoy our work. Support Bracketeer by clicking the link below or by clicking the button in the top right corner of the page. Any amount helps us. Thank you for all of the contributions so far this season and for supporting our team in this work!

SUPPORT HERE

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 - Mountain West (San Diego State): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: SMU, Virginia Tech, California, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: New Mexico, Auburn, USC, Cincinnati

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.06.2026

NOTES SINCE WEDNESDAY

  • A bit of shuffling was done to put Michigan State in the West and open the tournament in Buffalo to allow a smoother path for the committee policies surrounding the BYU Cougars. Illinois was switched to the East, which allows them to open the tournament in St. Louis.

  • Miami’s road win elevated the Canes to a 7-seed and sent SMU to the extremes of the bubble. The ponies have a pressure-packed game coming tomorrow at Florida State.

  • The Bubble is full of big games this weekend. I sent a full overview of the high-impact games to Twitter yesterday:

  • New Mexico’s home loss to Colorado State was a big hit to the Lobos tournament credentials. Indiana goes into the bracket as essentially a placeholder for the time being. As noted above, the weekend will be a separator for several teams, including the Hoosiers.

  • We have our first STUNNER! Belmont gets knocked off by 9-seeded Drake. The Bruins are an automatic bid for the NIT. Drake goes to the Arch Madness Semifinals after a really rough conference season. Bradley, for now, is the highest-remaining seed and into the forecast for the first time this year.

SUPPORT FOR THE BRACKETEER PLATFORM

The Bracketeer Journey is more wide-ranging and far-reaching than ever before. Nationwide coverage, Non-Conference Schedules, Bracket Forecasting, and all 31 league coverage are the bread and butter of this platform. Our team is growing, and we can really use your support if you enjoy our work. Support Bracketeer by clicking the link below or by clicking the button in the top right corner of the page. Any amount helps us. Thank you for all of the contributions so far this season and for supporting our team in this work!

SUPPORT HERE

BRACKET

FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia Tech, California, New Mexico, Oklahoma State

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Auburn, USC, Seton Hall, San Diego State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 03.04.2026

MOVEMENT NOTES

  • Arizona leads the nation with 14 Quad 1 wins, and eight of its 10 wins over NCAAT-caliber opponents occurred away from Tucson. If not for the ridiculously dominant seasons that Duke or Michigan are having, these Wildcats would be a slam dunk for the top overall team in the forecast. Keep that in mind in case Duke falls to UNC or Michigan were to slip up against the Spartans later this week.

  • Speaking of the Spartans! A tremendous road sweep of the Indiana schools last week beautified the MSU resume, and they are making their debut as a 2-seed in today’s bracket. Spartans received a lot of help from the Big 12’s carnage of late to make all of this a reality.

  • Texas Tech was the big story to end last week, well, last night’s home loss to TCU undid a good chunk of the progress gained by winning at Iowa State. The Horned Frogs suddenly seem like a team that will almost certainly dance now, despite a wild resume.

  • Alabama fell at Georgia and Nebraska fell at UCLA last night; no team really took the opportunity to capitalize. Kansas fell at Arizona State, and Gonzaga has nine days off. Arkansas plays Texas tonight, but that may not give them enough juice to crack the Top 16 since the game is at Bud Walton Arena. It seemed like Virginia would benefit from some of this chaos, but the reality is that the Cavs don’t have the elite resume wins that their primary competitors do (i.e., Texas Tech, KU, Bama). On the other end, Georgia is all the way up to a 7-seed with the win, and UCLA is out of Dayton danger.

  • St. John’s has three tournament-level wins this year, and two are against Villanova. The non-conference loss to Auburn is holding them down a bit these days, and the Red Storm have to live with the home loss to Providence for the duration. So, SJU remains stuck as a 6-seed.

  • Saint Mary’s will join the 6-seed party. The Gaels’ big week to finish off WCC play is paying major dividends. Gaels gained help from BYU losing again yesterday and Kentucky falling at Texas A&M. That gives SMC the edge over both for the time being.

  • UCF took its second straight disappointing home loss last night vs. Oklahoma State. That keeps the Cowboys alive in the at-large picture. OSU finishes with a massive opportunity vs. Houston at Gallagher-Iba Arena. Utah State was swept by UNLV. UCLA hammered Nebraska as noted above. The Bruins have bypassed UCF and USU on the board today, but all three of them are 9-seeds.

  • N.C. State continues to spiral in the wrong direction. The saving grace for the Pack is the great work in scheduling, and earlier performances cannot be undone. Road wins at Clemson and SMU, combined with home wins over North Carolina and VCU, still keeps NC State reasonably safe for now.

  • SMU, on the other hand, continues to lose ground. For the first time, the Mustangs are forecasted to play in Dayton as part of the First Four. Hosting Miami tonight and traveling to Florida State won’t be easy this weekend. The Ponies could really use a win in at least one of these games.

  • Auburn knocked off LSU last night. The Tigers’ entire tournament profile comes down to the Iron Bowl in Tuscaloosa this weekend. A win on the road will be a substantial boost and ensure that the Tigers do not go over 15 losses for the season. The 15-loss mark has never been breached by an at-large selection. Should Auburn fall, they are likely done with the At-Large experiment because that will mean a minimum of 16 losses once you include the SECT loss. This is it, Tigers, can you beat the rival this weekend?

  • Oklahoma State earned a season sweep of UCF. Things can get very interesting if the Cowboys beat Houston on Senior Day this weekend. Keep your eye on that one.

SUPPORT FOR THE BRACKETEER PLATFORM

The Bracketeer Journey is more wide-ranging and far-reaching than ever before. Nationwide coverage, Non-Conference Schedules, Bracket Forecasting, and all 31 league coverage are the bread and butter of this platform. Our team is growing, and we can really use your support if you enjoy our work. Support Bracketeer by clicking the link below or by clicking the button in the top right corner of the page. Any amount helps us. Thank you for all of the contributions so far this season and for supporting our team in this work!

SUPPORT HERE

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: USC, Virginia Tech, California, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Auburn, Oklahoma State, Arizona State, San Diego State

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER and BLUESKY: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology Big Board 03.03.2026

BIG BOARD

The Big Board incorporates the 1-68 Seed List and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

New Conference leaders today are represented below as Automatic Bids:
ASUN - Central Arkansas
MEAC - Howard
Mountain West - Utah State
Sun Belt - Troy

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
New Mexico (First Four)
VCU (First Four)

Show Your Support

Rocco Miller's Bracketology. Bracketeer.Org. All Rights Reserved