Projecting Baseball's 64 - FINAL EDITION

WHAT A WEEK!

Thanks to all for coming along on another impromptu ride on the College Baseball selection process and appreciating the math behind it. I enjoyed the week personally. A ton of what was cautioned at the week’s beginning came to fruition.

The five pre-week conference tournaments to watch produced four bid steals - a stellar 80% clip. Only Northeastern was able to prevent a bid steal out of the CAA, CUSA, AAC, Big West, and Big Ten quintet. You can argue for Cal Poly and WKU to be in the field without the auto bid, but I did not feel good about either getting in. The Tops and Mustangs earned it the hard way, by winning tournaments this weekend. Nebraska and East Carolina, despite rich traditions, were both undisputed bid thieves in 2025.

Noah Bieniek was gracious enough to have me on the Live reaction show last night, to go over the Host selections and fill out a mutually agreed upon bracket live. This was a healthy experience and helped me sleep on a few final bubble decisions. Here is the full episode:

College Baseball TOP 16 SEEDS REVEAL - Final NCAA Baseball Tournament Field of 64 Bracketology Projection on @TCEonSGPN with @RoccoMiller8 https://t.co/qeieED3us9

— Noah Bieniek (@NoahB77_) May 26, 2025

HOSTS ANNOUNCED

No need to spend a lot of time on the hosts as they were officially confirmed last night by the NCAA. We had all 16 correct yesterday here at Bracketeer. More importantly, the committee process played out to exclude the Big 12 (TCU and Arizona had worthy cases to host), which may have an impact on the final bubble selections.

#1 OVERALL? It’s time to get the order correct. After hearing the case for Vanderbilt to be the top seed overall, I decided to dive deeper. This is a clear strength in a direct strength comparison. Prior to Hoover, Texas was 22-8 in the top conference, and Vandy was 19-11. Vandy, of course, picked up three wins to match Texas at 22 league wins, and matched (if you count it) with a trophy. But Vandy still lost 11 league games, and Texas sits at nine SEC losses with the Hoover results factored in. A deeper breakdown is to see how each team did against SEC host-level opposition. UT went 8-5 and Vandy went 9-8. Vandy has the edge of being the hot team, but they caught a few breaks in the SEC bracket by facing Oklahoma instead of Alabama, Tennessee instead of Texas, and Ole Miss instead of LSU. Not Vandy’s fault, though, and still great opponents. But it does leave the body of work advantage to Texas.

TOP 8 filled in with Coastal Carolina’s double championship yesterday and proof of beating Southern Miss. Baseball gurus will tell you that both teams were low on pitching, but the committee is unlikely to penalize CCU for that level of detail. This was Oregon’s spot at the beginning of the week, but of course, the Ducks left the door open.

OTHER HOST ORDER leads off with surging Ole Miss. The Rebels did enough winning and got big wins against Florida, Arkansas, and LSU to vault into the hosting picture and earn a spot at the top of this list of the next eight hosts. If the Rebels had won the SEC Tournament, they would have been a strong case to be a Top 8 as well. Rebels are followed by Oregon, Clemson, Tennessee, Florida State, and Oregon State. A few factors led to this order. I do not see Oregon falling below Oregon State in any capacity. Oregon’s 9-1 Quad 1 record is the best percentage in the country with 10 results or more and outweighs the bad elements of Oregon’s resume. FSU became the toughest team to slot, as the baseball experts understand how talented the Seminoles are and the importance of having Michael Alford on the committee. His top priority now becomes to avoid a brutal super regional matchup, which is clearly UNC (who went 3-1 vs. FSU). Some shuffling sends Oregon State down to the 14-seed, which may seem unfair to the Beavers. OSU is at the mercy of SEC/ACC comparisons + Oregon (who, of course, beat the Beavs four times). That allows for a slide to 14. Southern Miss and UCLA round us out, as we shared yesterday, in the 15th and 16th slots.

🚨 The host sites for the 2025 DI Baseball Regionals 🚨

Host sites are in alphabetical order.#RoadToOmaha pic.twitter.com/pAwaTP0qKk

— NCAA Baseball (@NCAABaseball) May 26, 2025

FINAL BUBBLE CHOICES

With Nebraska and East Carolina eating two more at-large spots, the field shrank again last night. That could mean doomsday for a conference like the Big East. Somewhat unfairly, the Big East does not have an employee in the committee room. When you look at Xavier and UConn, you see two worthy squads for selection. Trying to separate the two gets dicey quickly, because it comes back to the old question, “What do you care about most?” Head-to-head, conference standings, quad wins, quad record percentage, or strength of schedule. Some areas give UConn the edge, others (especially SOS) give Xavier the edge. In the end, it’s just very muddy to separate them. A unique thing about the Baseball Selection Committee is that they need 70% (seven of 10 members) to agree in order to put a bubble team into the field. This could get really tough for both of the Big East candidates.

That begins to bring Arizona State and Virginia back into the picture. Big XII not having a single host location could actually help ASU get the final bid, as history tells us. This is due to some theoretical horse-trading; we do know Southern Miss AD Jeremy McClain got his biggest box checked by bringing the regionals back to Hattiesburg. The ACC entered the week hoping to see Notre Dame and Virginia play well enough to take any doubt out of their chances. Well, they both lost to Boston College in upsets. Virginia has the superior conference record, and nuance with the FSU series cancellation.

Troy finished six full games behind Southern Miss for second place and went 0-4 against the Golden Eagles. Trojans were remarkably consistent otherwise, highlighted by a series win against Coastal Carolina and no other series losses on the year. The Trojans did go an underwhelming 3-10 overall in Q1 chances, and just 8-12 in the top two quad chances. Feels horrible, but I had to cut them.

The magic of having Jay Artigues (SELA AD) as the Chairman of the Committee comes to the final day. Can he convince other voters in the room to support a two-bid Southland Conference? The task got harder with the bid theft late. UTRGV and SELA are looking pretty clearly behind UConn, ASU, Xavier, Virginia, and Troy. Holding my breath still!

In the end, I am taking the team that I believe will be able to get 70% approval. This became Arizona State after a long thought process about the hosts, the final candidates, and the final conversation. UConn would be the first team out, but certainly would appreciate a Xavier or Troy inclusion, and would understand Virginia. Should be fascinating!

Oklahoma State, Miami, and Kentucky all had enough reasons to possibly be cut from the list of bubble contenders, but based on the leagues they are coming from, I am not moving them.

THE FINAL FORECAST

The Final Forecast is based on the 2025 Selection Committee Policies and Principles and is based on a full simulation of the committee’s processes. This is not an opinion, it’s based on what I believe the 2025 Selection Committee will produce Today on Selection Monday, May 26th, 2025.

LAST TEAMS IN

Kentucky
Miami
Oklahoma State
Arizona State

LEFT OUT OF THE FIELD - STILL REASON FOR HOPE

UConn
SE Louisiana
Troy
Virginia
Xavier
Texas A&M
UTRGV

Sunday Host Day - Projecting the 64

HOSTING DAY

This whirlwind of a Championship Week will come to a screeching halt later this evening as the NCAA plans to share the 16 Host locations a little after 8 PM EST. By that point, nearly all of the pre-NCAA Baseball nationwide will have concluded. Leaving bubble teams with one final sleepless night.

The timing of the host announcement tells me that the voting and final host decisions are likely to be done before any of the Sunday games go final. Which is critical for teams like Southern Miss and UCLA, who are in a good position as of now, but still have games today.

I believe we are down to Arizona, Southern Miss, TCU, or UCLA for the last two spots. Both Georgia Tech and Dallas Baptist played their way out of contention yesterday, presuming the committee factored it all in.

ARIZONA: Imagining a Big 12 without a Host at all feels uncomfortable. Arizona was a modern record breaker in last year’s Host announcement with a 31st-ranked RPI. That same Wildcat team won the Pac-12 regular season and conference tournament, and boasted a strong non-conference. This year’s team may be just as hot, and is actually up to 27th in the RPI. The 2025 Cats also had the upper hand on TCU - the Big 12’s best team by the metrics, including last night’s win for the Big 12 Tournament trophy. The difference is non-conference strength was over 200th in the country, and AZ finished in fourth in the regular season as part of a tight race. Losing a series to Utah late also could be the costly margin, hurting Arizona’s final comps.

TCU: Didn’t do a whole lot wrong this week to give away its host projection, but did leave the door open by narrowly losing to Arizona. In most seasons, the Frogs have a surefire hosting resume with a Top 18 RPI and the 13th-ranked Strength of Schedule.

UCLA: Continues to win at the B1G Tournament (3-0) and is one win away from earning the B1G Tournament Title. The Bruins are up to 11 in the RPI today and shared the regular-season title with Oregon, which remains a Top 8 projected team.

SOUTHERN MISS: Beat NCAA caliber Troy twice this week and has won 18 games in a row! Sets up a must-watch Sun Belt Title game against Coastal Carolina, which is unbelievably their first meeting of the season. Do I need to mention again that USM AD Jeremy McClain is on the committee, too? Plus, the Golden Eagles have a Top 20 Non-Conference strength of schedule to help support a Host bid.

THE DECISION

Post-mulling this over from every angle that I think the committee will value and combining the theoretical influence of Mr. McClain in the presence of his committee peers, I think it goes to UCLA and Southern Miss, which is somewhat shocking to leave the Big 12 off the list of Hosts. UCLA being 11th in RPI and having hardware is tough to top.

The McClain effect, as we’ll call it, made me flip to Southern Miss. If KPI is considered at all by the voting committee, then Southern Miss would be significantly negatively impacted (still stuck at 26th). And TCU would benefit the most, as the Frogs are 13th in KPI, per the Sunday morning update. How much the committee cares about KPI remains a mystery. We just know they have access to it. Arizona is 20th in KPI as well, which helps close the RPI gap, should the Cats’ convo get into the weeds this morning.

CONFERENCE USA, BIG WEST DELIVERING DRAMA

Two of our heavy focus leagues delivered carnage on Saturday, impacting the bubble substantially.

The Jacksonville State Gamecocks stunned Dallas Baptist twice, in advancing to the CUSA Title Game today vs. Western Kentucky. CUSA is now guaranteed two bids to the dance, and WKU has been perfect all week in this event, to further its own at-large case. Conventional wisdom says the league is not getting more than two teams in, but still a big turn of events with DBU sent packing.

Cal Poly knocked off UC Irvine in an impressive 10-run win to set up a winner-take-all Final today in Fullerton. Cal Poly woke up this morning to the pleasant news that they jumped from 37 to 30 in the RPI. Almost impossible to ignore the Mustangs now, right? We’ve adjusted the forecast to include two Big West bids.

Who suffers? I think Virginia and Arizona State are the odd teams out now. But do not be surprised if UConn or Troy are the impacted teams, very close to call. Plus, I am not giving up on the possibility that Chairman Jay Artigues (SE Louisiana AD) helps find a spot for his Lions or UTRGV.

Lastly, a Nebraska win over UCLA today will take another spot away from the forecasted at-large field. As for WKU? A loss to Jacksonville State likely means no tournament bid for the Hilltoppers. Incredible theater is coming on Sunday in these two games.

Fascinating stuff on the bubble. Plenty more of a breakdown coming in the final forecast tomorrow!

SUNDAY FORECAST

This Forecast is based on the 2025 Selection Committee Policies and Principles and is based on a full simulation of the committee’s processes. This is not an opinion, it’s based on what I believe the 2025 Selection Committee will produce on Selection Monday, May 26th, 2025.

LAST TEAMS IN
Oklahoma State
UConn
Cal Poly
Troy

REASON FOR SOME HOPE, BUT PROJECTED OUT
Virginia
Arizona State
SE Louisiana
Texas A&M
UTRGV
Xavier

Projecting The 64 - Saturday Update

WELCOME TO CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY

Saturday promises to deliver some finality to a handful of our weeklong mysteries. The Big 12 Title Game is today, for example, with scorching Arizona looking to wrangle TCU in its backyard of Arlington, Texas, inside Globe Life Field. UC Irvine will have an opportunity to lock down the Big West double championship later tonight against Cal Poly or Hawai’i. And Creighton can take all the doubt away by knocking off UConn in today’s Big East Championship Game, with two chances to win as the tournament’s remaining unbeaten team.

FRIDAY SUMMARY

• UConn took down Xavier, 11-2, to officially put the Musketeers into the At-Large pool. The Musketeers challenged themselves all season long, but I am afraid being the clear number three in the Big East won’t be enough, especially without a Big East employee on the committee. The Huskies, however, should be pretty safe now. If I am Xavier today, I am rooting for UConn to knock off Creighton twice.

• Texas A&M was defeated in a tight one vs. LSU. The Aggies are now seeking to be the first SEC team since 1999 to win only 11 regular-season league games and be selected to the NCAA’s. Tough call, but I went ahead and took the Aggies out of the projection for now. Still struggling with what I think the committee will do with TAMU, Arizona State, and SE Louisiana. ASU would be the clear choice in an equitable committee.

• Stetson and Austin Peay finally played each other! Stetson pulled out a tight win in a matchup of the ASUN’s heavyweights. The Hatters are in the projected field now in place of APSU, and a pretty clear 3-Seed with their bright and shiny 58th-ranked RPI.

• Ole Miss knocked off Arkansas in another convincing result. The Rebels appear to be in terrific shape to host. And for the folks knocking the Ole Miss bad loss to Little Rock this season, take a peek at the current OVC bracket, where the Trojans are one win away from a regional themselves.

• Milwaukee put a crooked number up on Wright State to send shockwaves across the Horizon League. The Raiders absolutely dominated this league all year, but now its the Panthers who are one win away from the glass slipper coming with them to a regional.

• Sacramento State had a devastating day at the WAC Tournament. After beating mighty GCU earlier in the bracket, they fell to Utah Valley and fell again to Abilene Christian last night. The results end the Hornets’ season, and Utah Valley is now in the WAC driver’s seat.

SATURDAY FORECAST

This Forecast is based on the 2025 Selection Committee Policies and Principles and is based on a full simulation of the committee’s processes. This is not an opinion, it’s based on what I believe the 2025 Selection Committee will produce on Selection Monday, May 26th, 2025.

LAST TEAMS IN
UConn
Oklahoma State
Troy
Virginia
Arizona State

STILL ALIVE, BUT OUT
SE Louisiana
Texas A&M
UTRGV
Xavier
Western Kentucky
Cal Poly

Friday Preview & Forecast - Baseball's Championship Week

FRIDAY FORTUNES

Do you remember East Carolina? A Pirates program that has been to six straight NCAA Tournaments typically finds a way to host, but somehow disappeared into the American Conference muck this year? Well, the Pirates have shown up in Clearwater this week, earning a 2-0 start and are one win away from the Championship Game. The other Pool is led by Tulane (2-0), which is the two-time defending AAC Tournament Champs. Green Wave sent some shockwaves to the Bubble by handing UTSA (Tournament lock) a loss yesterday. Tulane won the head-to-head series vs. ECU and has earned the projection to be in the Field of 64 this morning as the AAC’s Auto Bid.

That kicks us off! With 27 ongoing tournaments, this is just a small taste of the larger chaos happening to the projection.

As noted on Monday - we are locked in on five key conference tournaments that have the highest likelihood of bid theft: AAC, CUSA, CAA, Big West, and the Big Ten.

Dallas Baptist, Northeastern, Oregon/UCLA, and UC Irvine are perfect this week, so chalk is holding in the other four. That can quickly change.

- Nebraska vs. Oregon today in Omaha! Almost a home game for the Cornhuskers here, and a win eliminates the Ducks in the conference tournament. That would give us Nebraska vs. Penn State in the Big Ten Semifinals, with only UCLA (who faces Iowa in the other semifinal) as the last likely At-Large worthy team alive. The Big Ten has a lot of avenues to get a fourth bid entering today, but an Oregon win over Nebraska can quickly change that.

BIG EAST & SUN BELT THOUGHTS

The Big East has a quagmire that could lead to a one-bid scenario, which would be unfair in a lot of ways - but we are dealing with reality in Bracketeer projections. Xavier vs. UConn today in a loser-out, winner-to-the finals game. Xavier beat UConn three out of four times head-to-head this season, with a chance to go up 4-1 today. On the flipside, UConn’s overall resume is better, with quad records and three games better in the uniform Big East schedule. Still leaning UConn for the Big East’s second team in, as Creighton is one win away from Regionals now. However, With bids vanishing nationally, UConn is a last four in type team today and could get chopped by Monday. Precarious situation. And again, Xavier has a path to at-large land as well with a win today.

The Sun Belt is playing to its strengths with Coastal Carolina and Southern Miss mowing down the competition in their brackets. One win away for each to play for a much anticipated Championship Game, they didn’t meet in the regular season. Troy is battling in the loser’s bracket, beating Texas State yesterday, but the bubble is close. I love Troy’s case for an at-large because they didn’t lose a series all year until the last weekend of the season against mighty Southern Miss. Troy probably can’t afford to get bounced by Old Dominion today, however. Pins and needles moments ahead for Trojan nation, but the best news is both CCU and Southern Miss are squashing the potential SBC bid thieves thus far in the event.

FRIDAY’S NEEDLE MOVER GAMES

These games will have the biggest impact on tomorrow’s forecast:

• TCU vs. Kansas, Big 12 Semifinals (KU can make big move toward hosting)

• Cal Poly vs. UC Irvine, Big West Winner’s Bracket Final (CP will be Auto Bid rep with a win)

• Xavier vs. UConn, Big East Loser’s Bracket Final (As Bubblicious as it gets)

• Northeastern vs. UNC Wilmington, CAA Winner’s Bracket Final (UNCW will be Auto Bid rep with a win)

• Arkansas vs. Ole Miss, SEC Quarterfinals, Razorbacks have a path to the #1 overall seed with some wins in Hoover, thanks to Texas loss yesterday. Will take a hard look tomorrow if Hogs win.

HOSTING SPOTS

Tennessee and Clemson’s wins this week have them in rock-solid hosting spots. They join Arkansas, Auburn, Coastal Carolina, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, North Carolina, Oregon, Oregon State, Texas, and Vanderbilt as sure-fire hosts.

That leaves us with a fierce fight for the three spots left. Ole Miss is the key here so far, they hit the magic 17 SEC wins by beating Florida in the SECT opener, and as stated earlier, I’m giving the SEC any benefit of the doubt in my forecast due to the current climate of College Sports. After the Rebels, I think UCLA and TCU are next. Georgia Tech is still very deserving, as is Southern Miss, and potentially Dallas Baptist or Kansas by the end of the week. The Yellow Jackets take on Clemson next in the ACC Tournament, a win and I believe they’ve got a host spot, but a loss would mean a 1-1 showing. The chances are pretty good that Southern Miss and DBU keep winning, and Southern Miss AD Jeremy McClain is right there sitting in the committee room. The Southern Miss File, however, also includes a 27th ranking in KPI, which could be a deterrent for committee voters. Kansas plays TCU next, possibly for a spot, so reserving a place for the Big 12 is wise here in my estimation.

In summary, it looks like TCU vs. Kansas for a host is possible. G-Tech can potentially overtake UCLA. If both fall, Southern Miss is ready to pounce. The quality options at this time of year are impressive. By Monday, anywhere from two to five deserving hosts will have to go on the road instead.

TOP 8 RACE

Arkansas has not even played, but it has been an awesome week of good fortune for the Hogs. This assumes the committee will value the 6-0 record that Arkansas posted against Texas and Vanderbilt combined. After the early rounds, Vandy has moved to #1 in both the RPI and the KPI. So it’s helping Arkansas the most! In Vandy’s case, this elevates them above UNC for now, but if UNC wins the ACC Tournament, they have a chance to get to the top of the board. Texas has the most to offer at this moment, but that can rapidly change. Vandy, Arkansas, and LSU are still alive to win the SEC Tournament, which is going to impress the committee on a superior level by the end of the week.

The others in the Top 8 for now remain Auburn, Georgia, LSU, and Oregon. Auburn and UGA have great bodies of work. Oregon, Coastal Carolina, Tennessee, and Florida State are still playing baseball, though, and can jump into this with more big wins. Oregon State is out of Top 8 contention at this point, I believe. Clemson will have a tough RPI to ignore if they win the ACC Tournament, but not sure if it will be enough for a full leap to the Top 8.

BUBBLE TALK

Time for some more cold water for the lover of mid-major programs. As stated before, the current climate of College Sports gives me limited faith that Cal Poly or Western Kentucky are going to be at-large teams. Fortunately, both haven’t lost yet this week and can go snag Auto Bids as it stands now.

Texas A&M’s baseball resume is more polarizing than some political topics. The bottom line is they are dangerous and in the right league. 13 wins is the annual benchmark for the SEC bubble, and they are technically there now with two wins in Hoover. The clear argument is three losses to historically poor Missouri. The only wins Mizzou had all year in the league! Unbelievable stuff. But do you think I’m going to guess the committee leaves an SEC team out after what we witnessed in Basketball and Softball? I don’t think so, Aggies are back in today.

That crushes a team like Arizona State or Virginia. Hard to believe that ASU would be left out after going 18-12 in the third-best league, but the final impression was brutal. Swept by fellow bubbler Oklahoma State and then lost to 12-seed BYU in a one-and-done Big 12 Tournament. I think this makes the argument for the Cowboys in over ASU fairly clear. Now we have Virginia, who is even worse in RPI than ASU, but the committee will likely understand the circumstances of UVA not getting the series vs. Florida State, which would’ve been a major boon to its RPI increasing. Give me the Cavs today, but losing to Boston College wasn’t great at all. And they are likely one of the next teams to get cut as we go forward.

The Southland remains the biggest mystery. In an equitable comparison, I think UTRGV and SELA are in a position to be left at home. Houston Christian won Game 1 of the Title Series over New Orleans and is in line to secure the Auto Bid. The elephant in the room is SE Louisiana, whose AD Jay Artigues is not just on the committee, but is the chairman. That not only helps SELA’s chances, but if the conversation leads to UTRGV being closer to the at at-large cutoff than SELA, there will still be a push for a 2-bid Southland, however possible. I’m not counting these teams out until our guy Jay sings to us on Monday!

Jay Artigues (Second from left in the photo) is not your ordinary NCAA Baseball Chairman. He is a former coach at SELA and lives and breathes baseball. He owns a Training Facility for Baseball and Softball players locally and worked to secure Hammond, LA as the Southland Tournament hosting location. He has an extraordinary feel for how this process will work and pull with the others in the room. And I may just be gutsy enough to project SE Louisiana as the last team in come Monday. Not saying they belong in, but come on people - this is just how it goes down in Baseball.

BRACKET FORECAST

LAST FIVE IN

Oklahoma State
Troy
Texas A&M
UConn
Virginia

STILL ALIVE, BUT OUT TODAY

SE Louisiana
Arizona State
UTRGV
Xavier
Cal Poly
Western Kentucky
Iowa

SPECIAL: College Baseball Pre-Championship Week Forecast

By Rocco Miller

Who sleeps in May? We certainly don’t. There are still too many games to schedule in basketball for 2025-26, and we’ve got to put a field together in baseball. How fun! Bracketeer has you covered this week. We plan to provide daily updates to the field beginning on Thursday morning. Be sure to check the Inside The Bracket tab for the latest forecasts from now until Selection Monday.

A drama-filled week is upon us in the College Baseball world. Unlike hoops, it is much more likely that we will witness surprises in Baseball’s ultimate decision week with automatic bids on the line, and the committee cares about these games tremendously - what a concept.

Behind the scenes (see BlueSky posts), a field has been built by yours truly every week down the stretch. My interest level has ballooned now into hourly RPI check-ups, several team comps, and a podcast appearance last week with the fine fellas over at 11.7 College Baseball - full episode here

SETTING THE STAGE

There are many elements on the line this week across nearly every conference tournament. We do know that the Columbia Lions will be in the Field following its Ivy Tournament Title clinching win on Sunday night over Harvard.

There are 28 more conference tournaments still ahead, including the Big West! Yes, the Big West came up with a postseason tournament which creatively only invited the top five to qualify, which could be key in helping Cal Poly’s RPI (a team stuck in the mud of the bubble currently). Also, the Patriot League Title Series is still ongoing, with Holy Cross one win away (vs. Army) from punching just its second baseball ticket to the NCAAs since 1978.

Let’s cut to the chase. These 28 conference tournaments, I believe, can be categorized into three columns:

• One-Bid League Tourney’s

• Serious Bid Thief Tourney’s

• Heavy-Bid (3 or more) Tourney’s with major host/bubble implications

ONE-BID TOURNAMENTS

The America East, ASUN, Atlantic-10, Big South, Horizon, Ivy (Columbia), MAAC, MAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, NEC, OVC, Patriot, SoCon, SWAC, Summit, WCC, and WAC have all been deemed one-bid leagues. These leagues all have varying formats to pay attention to. But regardless, they are only sending one team into the field.

I like East Tennessee State from the SoCon, however do not see an at-large path. The Bucs have a 47 RPI which is within striking distance, but despite ETSU’s double-bye until Friday, they would still take two losses in the event that ETSU is within the at-large pool instead of SoCon Tourney Champs. Too many spots will likely be gobbled at that point of the week, and simply will make the Bucs an afterthought to the committee.

SOUTHLAND SOIREE

Before diving into the larger picture of upcoming tournaments, the Southland Conference may hold the most impossible-to-guess poker hand of any league. The league had an exceptional season compared to historical standards. In the end, UTRGV (Current RPI 45) and SE Louisiana (Current RPI 58) shared the regular-season title, yet have both been eliminated during the opening weekend of conference tournament action. Leaving the Cinderella story of New Orleans (8-seed and last team to qualify for the SLC Tourney) or surging Houston Christian (6-seed) to take the league’s automatic bid.

Here is where things get somewhat complicated and potentially wild. UTRGV would be my last team into the Field of 64 as we sit here today on Monday, May 19th, based on traditional merits and a solid Top 50 Non-Conference SOS. The Vaqueros’ biggest issue is likely the many bid thief scenarios that we will cover next, but they are also dealing with SE Louisiana, which has the ultimate at-large bid silver bullet - the Selection Committee Chairman, AD Jay Artigues. SELA also beat UTRGV in a series, 2-1. That could give the Lions a tad of proof that they were the best regular-season Southland team, despite no Quad 1 wins for the year. A 58th-ranked Southland team would be quickly dismissed most seasons, but this is no ordinary year. Buckle up!

SERIOUS BID THIEF ALERTS

These are the MOST important conference tournaments that will impact “bracket math”. I’ve got five identified as absolute must-watch for the highest likelihood of bid theft:

• AAC

• Big Ten

• Big West

• CAA

• CUSA

The American Tournament boasts regional-style four-packs with the top eight teams in the conference qualifying. The two bracket winners will ultimately play a winner-take-all championship game on Sunday. Each team begins on Tuesday, so a ton of baseball and important bullpen management is at stake. More importantly, only UTSA is a lock to make the NCAA. The Roadrunners had a historic season and ran away with the regular-season crown. That means if any of the other seven competitors win this sucker, there goes an extra bid off the board. Charlotte ended the season with 10 straight wins, and has our attention as a true threat this week.

The Big Ten provides us with several intriguing scenarios. Oregon has locked up a hosting slot with its absolute domination to end the season. Ducks won 10 in a row to end the regular season, and 14 of their past 15. Oregon is in terrific shape to be a Top-8 selection regardless of what it does this week. UCLA is in a better-than-likely spot to host a regional, but still too close to the hosting bubble to have a rough showing and survive as a host. USC had a good enough season to be selected, but now finds its RPI ranking at 41. The Trojans may want to at least pick up a win this week to be extra sure.

After that? The league is stuck looking for another bid. Despite heavy commitments and increased focus on Baseball over the past few seasons, the league is falling short of its goal of five or more bids. Four bids is still very much alive. That’s because 12 teams are heading to Omaha this week to battle it out in four different pools. A lot of interesting scenarios as Nebraska will have the near-home edge, Michigan State could opt to save their ace, Joseph Dzierwa, for the matchup vs. Oregon (a team he already beat), and the resumes of Washington, Iowa, Indiana, and/or Michigan could look a lot more interesting if they can go on a run to reach the Championship Game. Another possible sleeper is Rutgers, which went 10-3 to close out the string.

Give it up for the Big West! Two major areas of kudos to the league.

1. Finally, adding a conference tournament, which could lead to an extra dance ticket. This league held on to tradition until the bitter end. With the changing economics over the past decade, the BW has sadly taken a talent hit. Several historic programs and national championships live in this league. The Big West continues to produce quality programs because the coaching is still great, and these places are absolutely beautiful places to attend school and play baseball.

2. The league made the wise choice to limit the field to five teams. This already provided Sunday night drama in Hawai’i. The Rainbow Warriors and UC San Diego were tied for 5th on the final night of league play, creating a win-and-in, lose-go-home scenario. Hawai’i met the moment and will get to play in Fullerton now. The pressure stays scorching hot as Hawai’i and UC Santa Barbara effectively play a 5-seed vs. 4-seed play-in game. The other genius of the format played out with Cal Poly (2-seed) needing more chances to build a resume. The Mustangs scheduled hard this season and have looked like a tournament-caliber team most of the season. However, Cal Poly finished just 2-10 in its Quad 1 chances. They are sitting at #42 in the RPI. They open with CSUF, in what is a road game. And the other possible opponents are UC Irvine (RPI 24), UCSB (RPI 65), and Hawai’i (RPI 64). There is a world where the Mustangs can lose the Championship Game and still improve their RPI rank. Getting even one win over UC Irvine would slightly help that Quad 1 record as well.

   Big drama and up to four quality teams fighting for a bid steal in SoCal ahead. UC Irvine may have a shot to host a regional if they handle business this weekend, but the Anteaters likely need too many things to happen elsewhere for it to all come together.

The CAA once again will provide some theater for the national bid allocation outlook. This season was completely dominated by Northeastern, which went an astonishing 25-2 in a nine-weekend CAA. So dominant that the Huskies are a lock to make the field. The rest of the league, which includes traditional heavy hitters UNC Wilmington and Charleston, will have to swing for a stealing of the CAA Auto Bid. The Seahawks ran away with the all-important 2-seed by ending the regular season with six straight wins. UNCW has the coveted second bye. Charleston, who was the preseason pick to win the league, still has everyone’s attention despite finishing 10 games out of first (which is wild). That is because the Cougars have the privilege of hosting this tournament, and C of C went 9-1 in its last 10 games.

Speaking of runaway conference races, how about Conference USA? Dallas Baptist mounted an impressive season, winning weekend after weekend, and mixed in some big non-conference wins along the way. DBU is threatening to be a host team if they can win the CUSA Tournament. That certainly will add extra motivation for the Patriots this weekend in Lynchburg.

The rest of the league is in limbo. Western Kentucky has had a memorable year and a fantastic CUSA season, finishing three games behind DBU at a stellar 18-9 record. A season-ending series loss to Jacksonville State hurt the RPI, however, and WKU may have been doomed for a while with the 285th-ranked Non-Conference Strength of Schedule. History is not on the Tops’ side for an at-large bid.

Jacksonville State will not only have momentum heading into Lynchburg, but Jax State AD Greg Seitz is on the NCAA’s Selection Committee. He will have the brutal task of fighting for a second CUSA team should DBU win the double championship this weekend. Otherwise, I think Seitz would gladly take a CUSA bid steal (preferably by his Gamecocks) and coast during voting this weekend.

Liberty had an ultra-competitive season going for most of the campaign, only to hit an absolute wall. Held on to qualify as the 8th and final team in the CUSA Tournament. The Flames get to open with DBU now, but they are hosting! So the Flames are live. Also, Kennesaw State went 17-9 and will be the 3-seed here. They’ve been very consistent and could be another good story to watch.

Just like the AAC, you get two pods of regional-style double-elimination action all week. Building into a winner-take-all Title Game on Sunday.

Are the Big East and Sun Belt Spoken for?

As leagues, the projections for both the Big East (2 Bids) and Sun Belt (3 Bids) seem to be inevitable, barring some extreme scenarios. Allow me to explain:

Big East - The four-team field contains three at-large hopefuls. Co-Champs Creighton (RPI 50) and UConn (RPI 39), plus Xavier (RPI 38), who had the 5th-toughest schedule in America. St. John’s is the 4-seed and the last team in the field. I played out the combinations of results for the upcoming tournament, including St. John’s winning this, and in nearly all scenarios, I still land with the Big East getting two bids exactly. UConn, I believe, will be in the NCAA’s unless they lose two straight here or take two SJU losses as a whole. I think Xavier or certainly Creighton adding two losses to the mix is going to be pretty hard to overcome, especially when considering the likely national carnage headed our way. No need to post this bracket because it’s a simple four-team double-elim tournament with games in Ohio (not far from Xavier) once again.

Best case for the league, I think, is Creighton beating Xavier for the title, with UConn getting a win as well. Even in that case, there is not a Big East employee on the selection committee, so I’m all in on two bids here.

Sun Belt - The always strong Sun Belt produced three dominant teams this season. Two are striving to host regionals. Coastal Carolina is in a prime position to host again, and that should be locked up now. Southern Miss ended the season by sweeping Troy on the road, which is the third strongest team in the conference. The Golden Eagles are soaring into the Sun Belt Tournament, which will be played at Coastal, by the way. Amazing that Southern Miss has ripped off 15 wins in a row and Coastal has put together 14 in a row. These guys just don’t lose!

If I am a Troy fan, I am okay with the above. A Southern Miss or Coastal tournament title would likely help Troy get in as the league’s third bid. Despite being swept by Southern Miss to end the season, Troy had not lost any other series for the entire season. Trojans have earned a lot of respect in the region, and Southern Miss’s AD Jeremy McClain is on the committee to help ensure the league gets a minimum of three in. Troy as a bubble team, is sitting at 43rd in the RPI, but they do stack up well to a lot of the bubble with the series statistics and a Top 50 non-conference schedule.

It becomes a major fire alarm for Troy if any of the other seven teams in this field win the tournament to steal the bid. Going to be difficult to sell the other committee members that this league deserves a fourth bid, I think Troy can’t afford a bid steal due to these committee dynamics. Watch out for Marshall, which surged to the 4-seed by winning its final six games of the season.

POWER LEAGUE BIDS

This section is designated for the big three leagues. The SEC, ACC, and Big XII. They will have more influence (by a mile) than the other 26 leagues on bid allocation.

SEC - 12 teams are locked in (Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Tennessee, Texas, Vanderbilt). Those six squads you see in bold are locks to be a host. I believe we will see seven hosts on Selection Monday (maybe more). The battle between Tennessee, Alabama, and Ole Miss (who all went 16-14 in the league) should play itself out in Hoover. If two of these teams go deep into the single-elimination week, we could have up to eight SEC hosts in the regionals. Remember, Softball just got nine regional hosts. The SEC continues to push the previous committee limits, and baseball specifically is the bread and butter of the league’s history.

That should make Kentucky pretty safe regardless of the carnage this week. They’ve got the magic 13 league wins required, and the Wildcats did not get the luxury of playing Missouri, which was historically bad. UK opens the SEC Tournament against Oklahoma, so the RPI (currently 36) should hold near-40 in the event of a loss. If a surplus of bid-stealing occurs, perhaps Kentucky could get axed, but I’m not seeing it.

Texas A&M had a well-documented wild year. Opened the season ranked 1st in the nation, only to go on a rollercoaster that included huge wins and a ton of disappointment. Nothing crazier than being swept by Missouri in College Station. A Tigers team that was 0-24 in the SEC prior to the series commencing. Today, the Aggies are stuck on 11 SEC wins. If they can get past Mississippi State and Auburn to reach the Quarterfinals, things get really interesting. Anything short of those two wins and they are done. Should TAMU pull it off, I feel sorry for other bubble teams with good records because its hard to foresee the committee not taking the Aggies on the surface.

The only chance of a bid steal in Hoover would have to come from South Carolina or Mizzou. Feels like a near 0% chance of that happening based on how badly these two clubs were outclassed all year long and needing to win five in a row.

ACC - Nine of the league’s 16 baseball members are seemingly locks heading into the week, which is not a bad position to be in, considering Virginia is trending toward in, and Notre Dame very much has a pulse. The nine for now are Clemson, Duke, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Louisville, Miami, N.C. State, North Carolina, and Wake Forest. Three in bold will almost certainly be hosts with UNC locking up a Top-8 spot last weekend. This league had three Top-8 hosts last year, and probably will be capped at two this season. FSU will need a couple of wins this week to secure a Top-8. I project them to do it, as they have supreme talent, but anything can and will happen during Championship Week.

Georgia Tech, by virtue of a cancellation involving UNC, ends up winning the league title for the regular season. Which is a pretty big surprise despite the unbalanced league scheduling argument. The Yellow Jackets put a bow on the season with arguably their most impressive series win, at Duke, this past weekend. If G-Tech can do some more winning this week, I think they will be one of the last hosts and get the league to four hosts overall.

Virginia has played well down the stretch and had the unfortunate bad luck of having the series at Florida State cancelled. Now UVA has the clear 16-11 league record showing they belong, but the RPI is still stuck in the mud at #55. The Cavs have a super interesting draw against the winner of Notre Dame-Boston College. The Irish are fighting for a bid of their own. BC is there to play spoiler on both of them.

Notre Dame is up to the Top 40 of the RPI, which is a big feather in the cap for a team that started 4-14 in the ACC, only to finish 14-16. The surging Irish will have the committee’s attention, but with the sub-.500 league record, there is work to do in Durham. Must win against BC, and likely UVA might be enough. Big moments ahead for the Irish this week.

That gives the league an angle to get as many as 11, but with UVA and Notre Dame in the same path together, it looks difficult. The other path to 11 is to get one of UVA or Notre Dame and an unlikely bid thief. Stanford, who just won a series at N.C. State, lead a five-pack of spoilers. The list includes BC, Virginia Tech, California, and Pitt.

Big 12 - Here is a league in the midst of a tug-of-war. The fierce battle from the bottom of the league to either qualify for the Big 12 Tournament or re-emerge into the tournament picture (Oklahoma State and Cincinnati) down the stretch took a bite out of the established class of the league. It was a six-bid league pretty clearly for several weeks - Arizona, Arizona State, Kansas, Kansas State, TCU, and West Virginia. These six are still in good-to-great shape to make the field, however, there is no clear host. TCU has the best case today and will be projected to be one of the final hosts. The margins are so slim though.

The Kansas Jayhawks swept WVU in Morgantown to finish and now can make some serious history if they make a run this week to secure a hosting spot. They have a feel of last year’s Arizona team in the Pac-12, which went on a crazy tear and won the Pac-12 Tournament and ultimately was rewarded with the 13th overall seed, despite a dicey RPI.

If Kansas and TCU choke this week, then what? No hosts for this power league? West Virginia would be next at #28 in the RPI, and they won the regular-season title by a fraction. Perhaps if the Mountaineers go on a deep run combined with early Frogs and Jayhawks exits, they are back in the host mix I believe. All of this also spells a possibility of no Big XII hosts at all. I think its wise to budget one for the league, as Kansas State AD Casey Scott will need to throw some weight around in the committee room here.

Bubble belongs to Cincinnati and Oklahoma State. The Bearcats have held their own down the stretch and finished the league above .500. Oklahoma State’s sweep over Arizona State to finish finally got the Cowboys into this at-large mix, but OK State is still just a few games over .500 overall (27-22). Perhaps most impressive about this duo, is they played the two toughest schedules in conference and came out with good enough win percentages to be strongly considered for the NCAAs.

Four teams enter Arlington this week as party spoilers - Baylor, Texas Tech, Houston, and BYU. Three of these teams being Texas schools makes the potential for a bid steal more realistic you’d think. We know Texas Tech and Baylor has talent to make noise. So many scenarios in this event ahead, must-watch baseball here:

FORECAST - BASED ON WHAT IS KNOWN

Now that we have broken down and categorized all 29 Auto Bids and league tournaments, ideally you have a much more organized view of what is at stake this week, which tournaments are likely to create chaos, and a subtle idea of how the host picture is coming together.

Today’s Forecast is here.

REGIONAL FORECAST

LAST FOUR IN
Virginia
Oklahoma State
Troy
UTRGV

FIRST FIVE OUT
Cal Poly
SE Louisiana
Western Kentucky
Notre Dame
Xavier

Bracketology Big Board 03.14.25

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams still alive at this stage for a potential At-Large bid. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The complete Bracketology update for Friday, March 14th will be posted soon on the “Bracketology” tab.

CHANGES SINCE MONDAY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big Sky - Montana (Champions!)
CAA - UNC Wilmington (Champions!)
NEC - Saint Francis (Champions!)
SoCon - Wofford (Champions!)
SWAC - Jackson State (Highest Remaining Seed in SWAC Tournament)

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
North Carolina (First Four)

sEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 03.07.25

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams still alive at this stage for a potential At-Large bid. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The complete Bracketology update for Friday, March 7th will be posted soon on the “Bracketology” tab.

CHANGES SINCE MONDAY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big Sky - Northern Colorado (1-Seed in the Big Sky Tournament)

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
Arkansas (10-Seed)
Oklahoma (First Four)

sEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 02.24.25

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The complete Bracketology update for Monday, February 24th will be posted soon on the “Bracketology” tab.

CHANGES SINCE FRIDAY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Atlantic-10 - VCU (Tiebreaker edge with H2H win over George Mason)
Big 10 - Michigan State (First Place alone)
Horizon - Robert Morris (First Place with tiebreaker edge over Cleveland State)
Sun Belt - James Madison (First Place alone)

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
Indiana (First Four)
Arkansas (First Four)
Xavier (First Four)

sEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 02.14.25

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The complete Bracketology update for Valentine’s Day, February 14th will be posted soon on the “Bracketology” tab.

CHANGES SINCE MONDAY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ASUN - Lipscomb (Three-Way tie with JAX/UNA. Lipscomb has top resume)
Big 10 - Michigan (First Place alone)
OVC - SEMO (First Place alone)
SoCon - UNC Greensboro (First Place tiebreaker over Chattanooga)

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
Ohio State (10-Seed)
BYU (First Four)
Arkansas (First Four)

sEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 02.03.25

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The complete Bracketology update for Monday, February 3rd will be posted following results on Monday night on the “Bracketology” tab. This will shake things up slightly because Iowa State plays at Kansas. Plus Pittsburgh, Northern Colorado, Southern U., Norfolk State, and McNeese are all in action on Monday evening.

CHANGES SINCE FRIDAY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big East - St. John’s (First Place alone)
Mountain West - New Mexico (First Place alone)
WAC - Grand Canyon (First Place representative due to better resume than Utah Valley)

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
Nebraska (10-Seed)
BYU (First Four)
Wake Forest (First Four)

sEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 01.27.25

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The complete Bracketology update for Monday, January 27th will be posted following results on Monday night on the “Bracketology” tab.

CHANGES SINCE SATURDAY MORNING

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Ivy League - Yale (First Place alone)
MAC - Akron (First Place alone)
MEAC - Norfolk State (First Place representative due to tiebreaker win over Howard)
Patriot - American (First Place representative due to tiebreaker win over Colgate)

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
Texas (10-Seed)

SEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 01.21.25

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

CHANGES SINCE FRIDAY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
American - Temple (First Place representative due to tiebreaker win over Memphis)
CAA - Charleston (First Place representative due to tiebreaker win over Towson, have not played William & Mary)
SEC - Auburn (First Place alone)

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
Vanderbilt (10-Seed)
Wake Forest (First Four)

SEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 01.13.2025

BIG BOARD

The Big Board incorporates the 1-68 Seed List and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

WEEKEND SUMMARY

Several conference races are off to surprising starts. Look no further than the Sun Belt, where 6-9 Old Dominion has a 4-1 start in league play following the stunner at South Alabama in OT on Saturday. There have been so many changes to the league representatives since the preseason that I condensed the list to changes that only occurred in the past week here:

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
America East - Bryant
Big Sky - Northern Colorado
CAA - William & Mary
Conference USA - New Mexico State
Horizon - Cleveland State
NEC - LIU
OVC - Morehead State
Patriot - Colgate
Summit - Omaha
Sun Belt - Old Dominion
WAC - Utah Valley

The Seed List below is reflected in Today’s Bracket Forecast under the “Bracketology” tab, which will be posted later this afternoon.

SEED LIST 1-68

Special Edition: College Baseball FINAL Projection

Projecting The 64, Volume 6 - FINAL ANSWERS

Selection Monday is here. Hello and Good morning to you. It is time we all find out key committee decisions for the bubble and regional pairings. In case you missed the announcements, here are the official hosts for the 16 regional sites.

• Athens, Georgia – Georgia (39-15)

• Chapel Hill, North Carolina – North Carolina (42-13)

• Charlottesville, Virginia – Virginia (41-15)

• Clemson, South Carolina – Clemson (41-14)

• Bryan-College Station, Texas – Texas A&M (44-13)

• Corvallis, Oregon – Oregon State (42-14)

• Fayetteville, Arkansas – Arkansas (43-14)

• Greenville, North Carolina – East Carolina (43-15)

• Knoxville, Tennessee – Tennessee (50-11) 

• Lexington, Kentucky – Kentucky (40-14) 

• Norman, Oklahoma – Oklahoma (37-19) 

• Raleigh, North Carolina – NC State (33-20) 

• Santa Barbara, California – UC Santa Barbara (42-12) 

• Stillwater, Oklahoma – Oklahoma State (40-17) 

• Tallahassee, Florida – Florida State (42-15)

• Tucson, Arizona – Arizona (36-21)

FUN FACTS

• The State of Louisiana is sending six teams to the NCAAs, which I believe is a new record for the State. We knew Louisiana Tech, Louisiana, and LSU were in great shape this week. In addition to that powerful trio - Grambling, Nicholls, and Tulane all had somewhat surprising auto bids to double the number of teams in the field from the State.

• Fresno State rallied from the loser’s bracket to capture the Mountain West Tournament Title. This has been an incredible wild rollercoaster season for the Bulldogs.

Final: Fresno State 16, San Jose State 11

Diamond ‘Dogs win four games in three days to clinch Mountain West baseball title and spot in NCAA tournament. What a rollercoaster season: from 25-9 start, to 4-18 stretch, to four straight wins - Fresno State is on the “Road to Omaha.”

— Gabe Camarillo (@gabecamarillo_) May 26, 2024

• Nebraska Cornhuskers earned its first-ever B1G title, & first conference title since 2005. They did it the hard way, knocking off Indiana twice on Saturday before winning a hard-fought 2-1 win over Penn State in the 9th inning on Sunday.

Overall thoughts on the Host Picks and Bubble Breakdown

Last night I joined Noah Bieniek (@NoahB77_) to break down my thoughts on the field. Noah is a tremendously passionate and knowledgeable College Baseball advocate. Special thanks to him for having me on the show. You can re-watch the entire episode here:

NCAA Baseball Tournament TOP 16 SEEDS REVEALED - Final #Bracketology Projection | The College Baseball Experience (Ep. 113) w/ @NoahB77_ & @RoccoMiller8 #CollegeBaseball #NCAABaseball #CollegeWorldSeries #MCWS #RoadToOmaha #NCAATournament #Bracketology https://t.co/papjTcts4B

— The College Experience (@TCEonSGPN) May 27, 2024

Tweaks Since Sunday

I had the opportunity to sleep on some of the real narrow decisions. Here are the main changes.

• Charleston into the field, replacing James Madison. History favors the Dukes here, as JMU played the 5th toughest non-conference schedule and the Cougars played many home games in non-conference action. The reason for the switch is that the Cougars were the most consistent team all year in league play. Winning the biggest pair of series they faced all year against UNCW and Northeastern. If the committee gave us any downstream clues yesterday, they have respect for league champions. I think this could additionally benefit C of C. JMU could still be selected over other teams, however, I am sticking with the Indiana/Coastal Carolina/Florida/K-State quartet to get in (with committee help).

• Order of National Seeds. Adjustments were made to move Oklahoma State (Big XII Champ) to 10th overall and to pull N.C. State up ahead of Virginia. I also am going with ECU (AAC Regular Season Champs) to squeeze in ahead of Oregon State (no Titles).

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - FINAL

Bubble Breakdown

60. TCU
61. Indiana
62. Florida
63. Kansas State
64. Charleston

First Five Out

• James Madison

• California

• Georgia Tech

• Northeastern

• Lamar

Thank You

Thank You to everyone for taking an interest in this analysis for the past six days. I’ve enjoyed it and learned so much. Appreciate all of the insiders out there, who are so willing to answer questions. Enjoy the Regionals, everybody, we will do this again in a year. Cheers!

Special Edition: College Baseball Championship Week Vol. 5

Projecting The 64, Volume 5

Waking up early (Pacific time) all week to build projections has been refreshing and enlightening. I’ve started to develop familiarity with the baseball at-large candidates similar to my primary focus - the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

Today, I’ll add a new description to the week’s work - bubble fatigue. The most important part of accuracy within guessing what a Selection Committee may or may not do, is to begin to understand what their conversations are like and take a shot on teams who you think might be popular in the committee’s eyes. Without further ado, let’s look at a cluster of bubble candidates this morning. The amount of committee influence on four bubble teams is somewhat mind-boggling.

Bubble Outlook

Florida and Kansas State - I have been bullish on the Gators getting in all week, mainly due to earning the magic 13 number of wins in the league, getting above .500 (barely), and AD Scott Stricklin’s potential influence on the committee. If I had a vote, I’d rather see a team from the CAA or a fourth PAC team get a chance instead of the 11th-best SEC team, but that’s just not what I see happening. For K-State, the Wildcats will finish in the mid-40s RPI (45 today) with a KPI ranking of 45. So the Wildcats are hanging in the balance. Enter Casey Scott, Exec. AD and Committee member. Casey will be looking to fight for teams in his league, while not discussing the Wildcats. TCU and Cincinnati (long shot) are also in the bubble picture. I’ve come around on K-State finding a way to grab one of the final spots.

Indiana - AD Scott Dolson is the Big Ten rep on the Selection Committee. Indiana had a nice year for a northern club and is worthy of selection. I think Dolson’s primary job for the league is to ensure they get three teams in. A win by Penn State would likely steal Indiana’s bid from what I can tell. It's still a win for the B1G and Dolson in this scenario. A Nebraska win today, and I think the Hoosiers will hear their name called on Monday morning.

Coastal Carolina - Matt Hogue’s final year on the committee. HC Gary Gilmore retiring. You’ve heard it all before. CCU has holes in its resume, but I do not dare to leave them out of the field with all of the factors.

TCU - The Horned Frogs have shielded themselves from national criticism. A 17-3 non-conference run is keeping them interesting and has held up the TCU RPI at 40 today. They are also strong in KPI at 29. My question - Is there room for both the Frogs and K-State to make it? My next question is, how important are win percentages in Quads? Because TCU is under .500 in both Quads 1 and 2, plus they went under .500 in league play. It seems dicey to me, but the groupthink I’ve seen out there suggests that TCU is relatively safe. I went ahead and put them back in the field today.

James Madison - There is a home still for the Dukes today. Dukes have to be big Southern Miss fans today. It is difficult to envision the Sun Belt getting five teams in, should Georgia Southern steal the auto-bid later today.

Charleston and Northeastern - These two worthy CAA teams are paying a heavy price in today’s projection. Ran out of room for both. I hope there is room for at least one of them. Bid steals in the AAC and MVC yesterday did not help, and we could see another one in the Sun Belt today (Georgia Southern).

Georgia Tech - I may have written off the Jackets a little early. They are certainly in the thick of this race for final bids. I thought they needed one win in Charlotte this week, which they failed to do. G-Tech remains out.

California - I did not expect this yesterday, but California will be out of the field today. I’ve said the Pac-12 will find a way to get four teams in, but sadly it’s harder to see that. Cal’s 192nd-ranked schedule out of conference is tough to overcome. The Bears do have solid marks in the quad record breakdown. Utah AD Mark Harlan is new this year on the committee, he has his work cut out to get the Pac-12 a fourth team. It’s a weird time because his school is going to the Big 12 soon.

Update - Hosts

Mississippi State - The Bulldogs are trying to overcome traditional RPI challenges (24th today) and leverage strong recent metrics - 16 Quad 1 wins, a KPI ranking of 12, and winning records in each of the breakdowns. Can the Bulldogs overcome the five Quad 4 losses? It is real close. After spending a lot of time comparing them to other hosts, I am leaning yes for them today. Oregon State just does not have the same amount of evidence for earning the spot.

Duke - Will face Florida State today for the ACC Tournament crown. A win and they belong as host in my book. I’ve been impressed with this resume most of the year as well. We will find out all the hosts on Sunday night.

East Carolina - Yesterday’s loss to Wichita State sunk the Pirates to 23rd in RPI, traditionally a major red flag for hosting chances. John Gilbert from ECU is on the committee. Will be interesting to see where they land. A 2-seed in the projection today, but ECU is still in the mix.

Dallas Baptist - Up to 21st in RPI with a big title game today vs. Louisiana Tech. DBU will be worthy of hosting, should the Patriots win today, but it might be too late since the committee is announcing later tonight.

San Diego - Steamrolled the WCC and WCC Tournament with no hiccups. They are up to 18th in RPI and that warrants a deep look at the Toreros. At last check, USD’s KPI ranking was stuck in the high 40s. Depending on how much the committee values this tool, could determine the fate of hosting.

Arizona - Normally, any Pac-12 Champ and Pac-12 Tournament Champ combo would be in line for a national seed, not just hoping to host. It was a down year this year, and despite the Wildcats achieving amazing success, they are still sitting at 31 in RPI and 30 in KPI. Will the committee reach and put regional games in Tucson?

Quick Shoutouts!

• Niagara Purple Eagles are dancing for the first time! Joining Northern Kentucky and High Point with this distinction. Will be awesome to see Niagara in a regional after an impressive 38-15 season that included a dominant MAAC Tournament run.

• The Tarleton Texans became the first school in a transitional period to win a conference tournament. WAC rules then handed Grand Canyon the auto-bid due to winning the regular season championship. Lopes thought their season was over, now they have new life.

• Evansville winning over Indiana State to earn a second bid in the Valley was great theater. The Purple Aces had a solid year and took advantage of hosting this year’s conference tourney.

• Nicholls has won back-to-back Southland titles. A very solid baseball league. The Colonels worked their way up to a projected three-seed and will be dangerous in regionals.

• VCU beat Richmond four times during the Rams’ current six-game win streak to win the A-10 Tournament. Adds more to the future of the crosstown rivalry.

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - SUNDAY MAY 26th

Bubble Breakdown

Last Five In

60. Indiana
61. James Madison
62. TCU
63. Florida
64. Kansas State

First Five Out

• Charleston

• Georgia Tech

• Northeastern

• California

• Georgia Southern

Special Edition: College Baseball Championship Week Vol. 4

Projecting The 64, Volume 4

Welcome to Championship Saturday. After a few long days of shuffling and surprises, we’ve arrived at D-Day in several conferences. Only 12 tournaments are scheduled to carry over into Sunday, meaning as many as 15 automatic bids will be awarded today. Unfortunately, many great runs and seasons will come to a close. Hot teams at the right time will continue playing baseball into Regional Weekend one week from now.

A full summary of the auto-bids is coming to you tomorrow. For now, let’s summarize what was learned on Friday.

Key Updates - Host Picture

• Mississippi State had a golden opportunity to jump into a hosting position against Tennessee, yet fell short late. The result puts the Bulldogs at 25th in RPI and history is not on their side for hosting, despite a great year.

• Duke is a team that is tough to ignore. The Blue Devils have had a solid resume all year long. Duke has finally cracked the Top 20 of RPI after a 2-0 start in Charlotte. They will play Miami in the Semifinals in a must-win to host a Regional contest. For today, I am giving the Blue Devils the final host spot, this will likely change again in 24 hours.

• Oregon State is sitting in the Sweet 16 spot, the 16th in the RPI that is. The Beavers are done playing this week and need to root for Miami and FSU today in Charlotte, ECU falling again would be another potential path. OSU is still in the thick of the hosting discussion, just the odd team out for this moment.

• Wake Forest had a key win over North Carolina late on Friday to advance to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament today vs. Florida State. Wake is on the brink of superseding teams with a win today and will be a projected host tomorrow should it occur.

• If Vandy runs through the rest of the SEC Tournament, they will certainly have a worthy RPI ranking (currently at 18) to be a host. After going 13-17 in SEC play during the year, this still makes that decision difficult. We will see how it shakes out with the surging Commodores.

Key Updates - Bubble

• TCU’s loss to Kansas not only ended the conference tournament run for the Horned Frogs but also left TCU wondering what Selection Monday might be like. The Big 12 is packed with bubble hopefuls. TCU is at 40 today in the RPI but had a losing conference record, a losing record in Quad 1, and a losing record in Quad 2. It’s difficult to give TCU the nod in comparison with Northeastern and others. Frogs and Huskies are both on pins and needles for the next 48 hours.

• The Pac-12 continues to hold interesting cards in the bracket math. Sticking to my guns that the league will find a way to put four teams in. Arizona, Oregon State, and Oregon are going to regionals. It comes down to if USC can secure the auto-bid with an upset over Arizona in the title today. Otherwise, I think the committee will find a way to get California into the NCAAs as one of the last bubble teams in.

• The Big Ten is also in the spotlight. Penn State is on fire, but not a bubble team. PSU and Indiana are the final two unbeaten teams in this tournament. IU has a good resume for a northern team, and I like their chances as of now. However, if Penn State takes this bid, one has to wonder if it comes at IU’s expense. Keep in mind IU’s AD is on the committee (and so is the Kansas State AD, fellow bubble team).

• Charleston and UNCW meet today in a critical matchup. UNCW is right on the edge of the bubble, and the team that doesn’t win this tournament will be sweating on Selection Monday. Due to weather delays, this is the winner’s bracket final. Delaware is still alive in the loser’s bracket to face the loser later this evening.

• James Madison continues to win important games, but they are nowhere near out of the woods yet. Today, the Dukes need to beat a very good Georgia Southern team twice to advance to Sunday’s Title game. If they fail, their 38th-ranked RPI will inevitably drop and a bid could be stolen tomorrow by the Eagles. Complicating Sun Belt matters even further is Appalachian State, which is still alive in the other semifinal. It feels like a four-bid league one way or another. If so, GSU and App State can spoil the day for JMU. I don’t want to fully write off Troy either, but the RPI (57 now) is in real rough shape.

Tournament Nuggets

• The WAC has reached peak chaos. Tarleton is ineligible (transitional year) to advance to the NCAAs. Yet, the Texans are one win away from winning the WAC Tournament. The WAC rule is that the regular-season champion would advance to the NCAAs if a non-eligible team wins its tournament. Grand Canyon is that team. Even though the Lopes were bounced early from this tournament, they are just one Texans win away from getting to the NCAAs regardless. They are back in the bracket today due to this loophole. To spice things up even further, this is the first season where California Baptist is eligible to compete in the NCAAs. The Lancers have rallied through the loser’s bracket and will face Tarleton in today’s championship game with the need to beat the Texans twice. A wild story is coming from the WAC in either result.

• Tulane and Evansville are still represented below as Auto Bids in the forecast. If ECU and/or Indiana State rally back to take the auto-bid(s) that will open up room for a team like TCU or UNCW to get back into the field. AAC and MVC remain must-watch. Also, the WCC could still have a bid steal - San Diego has been perfect, however.

• High Point is on the brink of history. The Panthers began competing in Division I in 2000 and joined the Big South Conference the same season. They have never advanced to the NCAAs. This is just their second Big South Title Game appearance ever. USC Upstate needs to beat High Point twice today to spoil the party. High Point is hosting the event.

• Northern Kentucky joined Division 1 in 2012 and has had some really rough years. Something special is brewing in 2024. The Norse have been at the top or near the top of the Horizon all year long. They are one win away from the ultimate dream. Youngstown State, the 6-seed, rallied to make the Title matchup vs. NKU. The Penguins would need to win twice today to take away the moment from the Norse.

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - SATURDAY MAY 25th

Bubble Breakdown

Last Five In

60. Alabama
61. James Madison
62. Florida
63. California
64. Northeastern

First Five Out

• TCU

• UNC Wilmington

• Kansas State

• Georgia Tech

• Troy

Special Edition: College Baseball Championship Week Vol. 3

Projecting The 64, Volume 3

Chaos is alive and well. It wouldn’t be Championship Week without it. We have made it to Friday and we have key teams who hold the cards for potential bid steals playing in loser brackets or already eliminated in the case of UConn. Ahead of a wild Friday - Let’s break it all down, shall we?

Key Updates - Hosting

American Conference - This is starting to feel like an annual tradition. The ECU Pirates have fallen once again in the AAC Tournament. This leaves Wichita State and Tulane as the remaining unbeaten teams. The AAC now projects as a two-bid league, joining the MVC and Big East. ECU remains alive in the loser’s bracket, where a handful of bubble teams are rooting hard for a Pirates’ rally back to the Title.

SEC - Vanderbilt and LSU have taken this tournament by storm. LSU is solid as a two-seed with no major chance to move to a Host. However, Vandy is up to 17th in RPI today and I have to believe if they seal this tournament with two more wins, they will be a Host on Monday morning. Mississippi State has built a legitimate case as well. The Bulldogs sit at 21st in RPI. They own 19 wins over SEC teams and could get north of 20 league victories in the coming days. They get a crack at Tennessee in a loser-out game today, a win moves the needle (of course).

ACC - Duke cooled off NC State, who was red-hot, in a dominant fashion yesterday. The Blue Devils are up to 19th in the RPI and are in the thick of the hosting conversation. They’ve advanced to Saturday’s semifinals and will be playing this weekend for a chance to play Regionals at home in Durham.

Big West - No conference tournament. UC Santa Barbara is just fighting off UC Riverside and hoping to stay high enough in RPI to remain in hosting position. The Gauchos and others (such as ECU) need the Mississippi State’s, Duke’s, and Oklahoma State’s of the world to take another loss. A loss of any kind by UCSB to UC Riverside likely would mean they miss out on hosting. Just an RPI killer if it happens.

Key Updates - Bubble

Bid Allocations to focus on

• Big Ten gets 3

• Pac-12 gets 4

• Big East gets 2 (clinched now with UConn out)

• Sun Belt should get 4

That’s it, everyone else on the Bubble is in a giant pot with very little to no bids left.

What Happened?

• Northeastern goes 0-2 in the CAA Tournament. A brutal result for the Huskies. A major credit to them for scheduling 31 road games and going 19-12. That keeps their RPI in a good at-large range at 33 today, but it was too difficult to find a spot for them today. This will be a sweaty 75 hours til Selection Monday.

• Xavier wins a classic game over UConn, then loses a classic game to St. John’s on the same day. I am struggling to find room for three Big East teams. Xavier is at 38 in the RPI and played the second-hardest schedule in the country. Barely out for today, but the Muskies are still playing baseball - which provides its resume a chance to improve.

• James Madison rallied from six down to stun Louisiana. Cajuns are done in two games of the Sun Belt tournament after running away with the regular-season championship. I am keeping Coastal Carolina in the field despite going just 1-2 this week. The KPI is strong for CCU at 19th and the committee influence here cannot be ignored. JMU and Troy are in the thick of a battle for a potential fourth bid for the conference. Georgia Southern is unbeaten this week and could steal the bid. High drama in this tournament.

• Kansas State is out after a 1-2 Big XII Tourney showing. They find themselves 47th in the RPI, and 43rd in the KPI. I am keeping them on the board with their AD on the committee. Also damaging to the Wildcats, is fellow bubble teams like UCF and TCU continuing to win. Both the Knights and Frogs are climbing into a safe landing spot. Cincinnati had a great conference year, but the RPI fell to 63 after the loss to Texas Tech. That will do it for the Bearcats in 2024.

• The Pac-12 produced two of four potential bid stealers into the Semifinals. USC and Stanford are right in the mix to take the bid. Cal (Bubble In) is also alive and looking to take it themselves. This helps me justify Cal projected in this week. I believe they would be out if USC or Stanford takes the auto-bid. One way or another, I believe the PAC lands with four teams in.

• Indiana State (won on Thursday) and ECU are still fighting for a chance to host. They may both be in the loser’s bracket but they have plenty of motivation to storm back and with their tournaments. Right now both leagues are projected as two-bid leagues. Should either rally back to win it, a spot opens for a bubble team.

• As crazy as things are, two more bids could vanish from the Bubble picture. In the WCC, San Diego is still undefeated, but Portland is surging too. Pilots can take that bid potentially. And in the CAA, UNCW is barely out and can win this bid to help the league get two bids. Critical game vs. Charleston today and we may see them meet more times in the Championship, which would only help each of their respective RPI rankings.

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - FRIDAY, MAY 24th

Bubble Breakdown

Last Five In

60. Alabama
61. California
62. TCU
63. Florida
64. James Madison

First Five Out

• Northeastern

• Troy

• Kansas State

• UNC Wilmington

• Georgia Tech

Special Edition: College Baseball Championship Week Vol. 2

Projecting The 64, Volume 2

Welcome to Thursday, everybody. It’s a big moving day today with nearly every top-seed within conference tournament play taking the field. Since Volume 1 on Tuesday, a few impactful results have occurred. Let’s break it down.

Updates to Automatic Bids

SEC - The Top four seeds all lost on Wednesday, which means the highest remaining team in the winner’s bracket is now Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are on the brink of coming up to take one of the 16 host spots should they stay hot deep into the weekend. Currently up to 19 in the RPI, a top 16 finish will likely bring a regional to Starkville.

Sun Belt - Louisiana got beat by Old Dominion in the opener and find themselves in the loser’s bracket right now. Southern Miss is the new projected auto-bid from the league. Both teams remain a projected 2-seed within regionals.

Missouri Valley - One of the key leagues to track as Indiana State is an absolute lock for the NCAAs, but nobody else is even on the bubble. The Sycamores fell in extra innings against SIU yesterday in a marathon. The odds of ISU rallying through the loser’s bracket may be even stiffer thanks to the long game yesterday and going deep into the bullpen. A strong likelihood has emerged for the MVC to become a 2-Bid league. Evansville won and is the host of the tournament here. We went with the Purple Aces for the auto-bid choice because they are already a round deeper than the 2-seed, Murray State. Keep your eye on the Valley.

Big Ten - Top-seed Illinois ran into a recent buzzsaw in Penn State to taste an upset loss to open. For the two-seed Nebraska, it was even worse. To get beat 15-2 against Ohio State is not a great showing. Both the Huskers and Illini remain alive in the loser’s bracket and are part of the projected Field of 64. The projected auto-bid is now Indiana as the highest remaining unbeaten team. We talked about the Hoosiers in Volume 1, a lot of intrigue in Bloomington - especially with their AD on the Selection Committee.

Atlantic-10 - Saint Louis was knocked into the Loser’s Bracket at the hands of Richmond. The Billikens do not own an at-large resume, so this has them entirely out for today. VCU has had a solid year and is the new favorite to win the league. RPI in the 70’s right now with a decent road record. All of that was just enough to get the Rams one of the final three-seeds in Regional forecasting.

Southland - Lamar’s once-storied season has leaked oil down the stretch. That continued in the SLC Tournament opening loss to eighth-seeded UIW. Nicholls also had another strong season and is the new projected auto-bid. Should Nicholls win this tournament, you may see the Colonels as a three-seed in regionals.

SWAC - An interesting regular season format containing two divisions (West and East) who never face each other. So here at the conference tournament, we have teams facing each other for the first time. The West top-seed Texas Southern fell, so we have switched to the East top-seed, Florida A&M, who took care of business yesterday.

ASUN - The league tournament groups the top four seeds for round-robin pool play. I hesitate to change an auto-bid projection based on pool play alone, but in this case, all four teams were tied with 10 league losses. Kennesaw State has emerged thus far with a 2-0 start. Our forecasted champ previously was Austin Peay, who lost the opener. Today, Kennesaw State is the projected auto-bid.

Summit League - The most unpredictable league of them all! Oral Roberts had a rough year for ORU standards and is coming off of their epic run to the College World Series in 2023. Down the stretch, the Golden Eagles have shown more life, and ORU happens to be hosting the conference tournament. Omaha was the original pick, they fell in the opener to Northern Colorado and ORU took care of North Dakota State. Somehow, ORU has made it back into the projected field today after months of misery. Let’s see if they can finish the job this weekend in Tulsa.

Bubble Updates

Costly Losses

• James Madison fell to Georgia Southern, dropping the Dukes down to 49th in RPI

• Georgia Tech went 0-2 in the ACC Tournament, dropping to 50th in the RPI

• Kansas State’s opening-round loss to Kansas hurt from a record standpoint. A nice bounceback win over West Virginia yesterday has the Wildcats at 41 in RPI. Keep in mind that the K-State AD is on the committee. A critical game vs. TCU looms large today.

• Virginia Tech needed a monster week. Instead, they go 0-2 and their season is done. There is no chance for the Hokies at this point.

Moving Up

• Troy got off to a good start by beating Appalachian State. Despite a 52nd-ranked RPI, the Trojans are 17-10 in road games and crush the rest of the current bubble in that key area. With JMU falling out, finding a home in the forecast for the Trojans was additionally logical.

• Vanderbilt went from bubbles to a solid two-seed in two performances at the SEC Tournament. Commodores took it to Tennessee on the big stage yesterday.

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - THURSDAY, MAY 23rd

Bubble Breakdown

Last Five In

60. Florida
61. California
62. TCU
63. Troy
64. Kansas State

First Five Out

• UNC Wilmington

• St. John’s

• Cincinnati

• James Madison

• Georgia Tech

Special Edition: College Baseball Championship Week Vol. 1

Championship Week: Projecting The 64, Volume 1

Hello, everybody! Welcome to The Bracketeer's Field of 64 projections. I’m excited to have you here. Over this coming week, we will go through projections for the Baseball Regionals and overall road to the CWS. Expect a daily update beginning on Thursday, May 23rd. That will take us right up to Selection Monday, May 27th.

Why Baseball?

I have long been fascinated with the way Regional hosts and regional draws are built. And of course, it is always exciting to determine who should be in, and who doesn’t belong in the Field of 64. Unlike College Basketball - the sport of College Baseball still uses the RPI Formula to help sort game results and teams overall. It makes the criteria for being selected a little different than hoops. Leveraging geography first and understanding recent committee history drives the process for region assignments.

To properly start the week, I analyze all the factors made available to the selection committee. Those criteria now include Quadrant records and the KPI rankings. This adds some additional nuance to the process.

To be ultimately prepared, let’s review who is on the 2024 NCAA Baseball Selection Committee:

With Sherard Clinkscales’ vacancy on the NCAA Baseball Selection Committee, his replacement is Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin. Here’s the entire selection committee roster. pic.twitter.com/aUq8gtflV1

— Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogers) April 30, 2024

How will the Projections be modeled?

I strive to stay in line with the core values of forecasting March Madness. A key to that is to forecast projections as if the season ended today, and not depend on projected results.

One of the enjoyable byproducts of this methodology for the week ahead is when a forecasted league champ enters the loser’s bracket at any given time, they will be replaced the following morning in the forecast for automatic bid purposes. A big reason for this is to stay nimble and ready for any chaos that will inevitably occur during Championship Week. I will only use teams who are in the winner’s bracket to represent each league’s automatic bid. If a league uses pool play, I will wait until pool play concludes to reallocate the forecasted representative, making things spicy around here daily.

If you love a school that needs to win its conference tournament, this makes the week a bit more fun, because you will be able to gain a sense of where your team might be slotted if they are hot and on the right side of the bracket this week.

Another key reason for this approach is to get sharp on bubble teams. There have been prior seasons where as many as seven or eight bids get stolen, which has tightened the bubble immensely and dramatically impacted the final bracket.

Which League is the most likely for Bid Steals this week?

The following leagues are the most prone for a bid steal, which would eliminate a bubble team with each bid that is taken.

• American Conference - Any other team except East Carolina is a bid stealer.

• WCC - Any other team except San Diego is a bid stealer.

• Missouri Valley - Any other team except Indiana State is a bid stealer.

The three above leagues are just begging for a second league member to take a bid. They are piping hot red flag warnings.

The following leagues project to get two teams into the field, but perhaps a third bid would be possible with an upset this week:

• Conference USA - Dallas Baptist and Louisiana Tech are locked in. That means the door is wide open for a third team to join the NCAAs from CUSA.

• CAA - Likely a 2-3 bid league range outcome here. Charleston is the league champion, but not a lock to make it. Northeastern had the best RPI ranking (29), but finished in 3rd place. Huskies still have work to do this week. And UNC-Wilmington has fallen to 48th despite a strong resume - the Seahawks are not safe. Then there are the other teams looking to steal. This is a critical week in the league.

• Big East - Projecting two bids. The Big East finished as the fourth-toughest league in America. Because of this, the Big East should get two bids, regardless of the outcome. If UConn wins the tournament, there is a world here where the Big East could be stuck as a one-bid league when it’s all said and done.

• Big Ten - At this point, I think Illinois is going to get in. They finished 18-6 and were the clear league champs, also improving their RPI to 43. Nebraska is the only real lock in this conference. Indiana’s AD is on the committee and that has me pondering if the league can work some magic here to pick up a third team into the field. Perhaps the bid steal route, or maybe a committee-based reach to include the Hoosiers (15-9 in the league, but 59th in RPI) - it’s all in play for Selection Monday right now.

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTIONS - TUESDAY, MAY 21st

BUBBLE BREAKDOWN

Last Five In

60. James Madison
61. Vanderbilt
62. Xavier
63. UNC Wilmington
64. TCU

First Five Out

• Troy

• Cincinnati

• California

• Indiana

• Lousiville

Bracketology Big Board 02.12.24

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The list shown below will be reflected in Today’s Bracket Forecast under the “Bracketology” tab, which will be posted on Monday afternoon (Pacific Time), February 12th.

CHANGES SINCE FRIDAY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
CUSA - Sam Houston (First Place representative due to Head-to-Head results)
SEC - Alabama (First Place representative due to Head-to-Head results)

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
Nevada (First Four)
Gonzaga (First Four)

SEED LIST 1-68