Special Edition: College Baseball FINAL Projection

Projecting The 64, Volume 6 - FINAL ANSWERS

Selection Monday is here. Hello and Good morning to you. It is time we all find out key committee decisions for the bubble and regional pairings. In case you missed the announcements, here are the official hosts for the 16 regional sites.

• Athens, Georgia – Georgia (39-15)

• Chapel Hill, North Carolina – North Carolina (42-13)

• Charlottesville, Virginia – Virginia (41-15)

• Clemson, South Carolina – Clemson (41-14)

• Bryan-College Station, Texas – Texas A&M (44-13)

• Corvallis, Oregon – Oregon State (42-14)

• Fayetteville, Arkansas – Arkansas (43-14)

• Greenville, North Carolina – East Carolina (43-15)

• Knoxville, Tennessee – Tennessee (50-11) 

• Lexington, Kentucky – Kentucky (40-14) 

• Norman, Oklahoma – Oklahoma (37-19) 

• Raleigh, North Carolina – NC State (33-20) 

• Santa Barbara, California – UC Santa Barbara (42-12) 

• Stillwater, Oklahoma – Oklahoma State (40-17) 

• Tallahassee, Florida – Florida State (42-15)

• Tucson, Arizona – Arizona (36-21)

FUN FACTS

• The State of Louisiana is sending six teams to the NCAAs, which I believe is a new record for the State. We knew Louisiana Tech, Louisiana, and LSU were in great shape this week. In addition to that powerful trio - Grambling, Nicholls, and Tulane all had somewhat surprising auto bids to double the number of teams in the field from the State.

• Fresno State rallied from the loser’s bracket to capture the Mountain West Tournament Title. This has been an incredible wild rollercoaster season for the Bulldogs.

Final: Fresno State 16, San Jose State 11

Diamond ‘Dogs win four games in three days to clinch Mountain West baseball title and spot in NCAA tournament. What a rollercoaster season: from 25-9 start, to 4-18 stretch, to four straight wins - Fresno State is on the “Road to Omaha.”

— Gabe Camarillo (@gabecamarillo_) May 26, 2024

• Nebraska Cornhuskers earned its first-ever B1G title, & first conference title since 2005. They did it the hard way, knocking off Indiana twice on Saturday before winning a hard-fought 2-1 win over Penn State in the 9th inning on Sunday.

Overall thoughts on the Host Picks and Bubble Breakdown

Last night I joined Noah Bieniek (@NoahB77_) to break down my thoughts on the field. Noah is a tremendously passionate and knowledgeable College Baseball advocate. Special thanks to him for having me on the show. You can re-watch the entire episode here:

NCAA Baseball Tournament TOP 16 SEEDS REVEALED - Final #Bracketology Projection | The College Baseball Experience (Ep. 113) w/ @NoahB77_ & @RoccoMiller8 #CollegeBaseball #NCAABaseball #CollegeWorldSeries #MCWS #RoadToOmaha #NCAATournament #Bracketology https://t.co/papjTcts4B

— The College Experience (@TCEonSGPN) May 27, 2024

Tweaks Since Sunday

I had the opportunity to sleep on some of the real narrow decisions. Here are the main changes.

• Charleston into the field, replacing James Madison. History favors the Dukes here, as JMU played the 5th toughest non-conference schedule and the Cougars played many home games in non-conference action. The reason for the switch is that the Cougars were the most consistent team all year in league play. Winning the biggest pair of series they faced all year against UNCW and Northeastern. If the committee gave us any downstream clues yesterday, they have respect for league champions. I think this could additionally benefit C of C. JMU could still be selected over other teams, however, I am sticking with the Indiana/Coastal Carolina/Florida/K-State quartet to get in (with committee help).

• Order of National Seeds. Adjustments were made to move Oklahoma State (Big XII Champ) to 10th overall and to pull N.C. State up ahead of Virginia. I also am going with ECU (AAC Regular Season Champs) to squeeze in ahead of Oregon State (no Titles).

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - FINAL

Bubble Breakdown

60. TCU
61. Indiana
62. Florida
63. Kansas State
64. Charleston

First Five Out

• James Madison

• California

• Georgia Tech

• Northeastern

• Lamar

Thank You

Thank You to everyone for taking an interest in this analysis for the past six days. I’ve enjoyed it and learned so much. Appreciate all of the insiders out there, who are so willing to answer questions. Enjoy the Regionals, everybody, we will do this again in a year. Cheers!

Special Edition: College Baseball Championship Week Vol. 5

Projecting The 64, Volume 5

Waking up early (Pacific time) all week to build projections has been refreshing and enlightening. I’ve started to develop familiarity with the baseball at-large candidates similar to my primary focus - the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.

Today, I’ll add a new description to the week’s work - bubble fatigue. The most important part of accuracy within guessing what a Selection Committee may or may not do, is to begin to understand what their conversations are like and take a shot on teams who you think might be popular in the committee’s eyes. Without further ado, let’s look at a cluster of bubble candidates this morning. The amount of committee influence on four bubble teams is somewhat mind-boggling.

Bubble Outlook

Florida and Kansas State - I have been bullish on the Gators getting in all week, mainly due to earning the magic 13 number of wins in the league, getting above .500 (barely), and AD Scott Stricklin’s potential influence on the committee. If I had a vote, I’d rather see a team from the CAA or a fourth PAC team get a chance instead of the 11th-best SEC team, but that’s just not what I see happening. For K-State, the Wildcats will finish in the mid-40s RPI (45 today) with a KPI ranking of 45. So the Wildcats are hanging in the balance. Enter Casey Scott, Exec. AD and Committee member. Casey will be looking to fight for teams in his league, while not discussing the Wildcats. TCU and Cincinnati (long shot) are also in the bubble picture. I’ve come around on K-State finding a way to grab one of the final spots.

Indiana - AD Scott Dolson is the Big Ten rep on the Selection Committee. Indiana had a nice year for a northern club and is worthy of selection. I think Dolson’s primary job for the league is to ensure they get three teams in. A win by Penn State would likely steal Indiana’s bid from what I can tell. It's still a win for the B1G and Dolson in this scenario. A Nebraska win today, and I think the Hoosiers will hear their name called on Monday morning.

Coastal Carolina - Matt Hogue’s final year on the committee. HC Gary Gilmore retiring. You’ve heard it all before. CCU has holes in its resume, but I do not dare to leave them out of the field with all of the factors.

TCU - The Horned Frogs have shielded themselves from national criticism. A 17-3 non-conference run is keeping them interesting and has held up the TCU RPI at 40 today. They are also strong in KPI at 29. My question - Is there room for both the Frogs and K-State to make it? My next question is, how important are win percentages in Quads? Because TCU is under .500 in both Quads 1 and 2, plus they went under .500 in league play. It seems dicey to me, but the groupthink I’ve seen out there suggests that TCU is relatively safe. I went ahead and put them back in the field today.

James Madison - There is a home still for the Dukes today. Dukes have to be big Southern Miss fans today. It is difficult to envision the Sun Belt getting five teams in, should Georgia Southern steal the auto-bid later today.

Charleston and Northeastern - These two worthy CAA teams are paying a heavy price in today’s projection. Ran out of room for both. I hope there is room for at least one of them. Bid steals in the AAC and MVC yesterday did not help, and we could see another one in the Sun Belt today (Georgia Southern).

Georgia Tech - I may have written off the Jackets a little early. They are certainly in the thick of this race for final bids. I thought they needed one win in Charlotte this week, which they failed to do. G-Tech remains out.

California - I did not expect this yesterday, but California will be out of the field today. I’ve said the Pac-12 will find a way to get four teams in, but sadly it’s harder to see that. Cal’s 192nd-ranked schedule out of conference is tough to overcome. The Bears do have solid marks in the quad record breakdown. Utah AD Mark Harlan is new this year on the committee, he has his work cut out to get the Pac-12 a fourth team. It’s a weird time because his school is going to the Big 12 soon.

Update - Hosts

Mississippi State - The Bulldogs are trying to overcome traditional RPI challenges (24th today) and leverage strong recent metrics - 16 Quad 1 wins, a KPI ranking of 12, and winning records in each of the breakdowns. Can the Bulldogs overcome the five Quad 4 losses? It is real close. After spending a lot of time comparing them to other hosts, I am leaning yes for them today. Oregon State just does not have the same amount of evidence for earning the spot.

Duke - Will face Florida State today for the ACC Tournament crown. A win and they belong as host in my book. I’ve been impressed with this resume most of the year as well. We will find out all the hosts on Sunday night.

East Carolina - Yesterday’s loss to Wichita State sunk the Pirates to 23rd in RPI, traditionally a major red flag for hosting chances. John Gilbert from ECU is on the committee. Will be interesting to see where they land. A 2-seed in the projection today, but ECU is still in the mix.

Dallas Baptist - Up to 21st in RPI with a big title game today vs. Louisiana Tech. DBU will be worthy of hosting, should the Patriots win today, but it might be too late since the committee is announcing later tonight.

San Diego - Steamrolled the WCC and WCC Tournament with no hiccups. They are up to 18th in RPI and that warrants a deep look at the Toreros. At last check, USD’s KPI ranking was stuck in the high 40s. Depending on how much the committee values this tool, could determine the fate of hosting.

Arizona - Normally, any Pac-12 Champ and Pac-12 Tournament Champ combo would be in line for a national seed, not just hoping to host. It was a down year this year, and despite the Wildcats achieving amazing success, they are still sitting at 31 in RPI and 30 in KPI. Will the committee reach and put regional games in Tucson?

Quick Shoutouts!

• Niagara Purple Eagles are dancing for the first time! Joining Northern Kentucky and High Point with this distinction. Will be awesome to see Niagara in a regional after an impressive 38-15 season that included a dominant MAAC Tournament run.

• The Tarleton Texans became the first school in a transitional period to win a conference tournament. WAC rules then handed Grand Canyon the auto-bid due to winning the regular season championship. Lopes thought their season was over, now they have new life.

• Evansville winning over Indiana State to earn a second bid in the Valley was great theater. The Purple Aces had a solid year and took advantage of hosting this year’s conference tourney.

• Nicholls has won back-to-back Southland titles. A very solid baseball league. The Colonels worked their way up to a projected three-seed and will be dangerous in regionals.

• VCU beat Richmond four times during the Rams’ current six-game win streak to win the A-10 Tournament. Adds more to the future of the crosstown rivalry.

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - SUNDAY MAY 26th

Bubble Breakdown

Last Five In

60. Indiana
61. James Madison
62. TCU
63. Florida
64. Kansas State

First Five Out

• Charleston

• Georgia Tech

• Northeastern

• California

• Georgia Southern

Special Edition: College Baseball Championship Week Vol. 4

Projecting The 64, Volume 4

Welcome to Championship Saturday. After a few long days of shuffling and surprises, we’ve arrived at D-Day in several conferences. Only 12 tournaments are scheduled to carry over into Sunday, meaning as many as 15 automatic bids will be awarded today. Unfortunately, many great runs and seasons will come to a close. Hot teams at the right time will continue playing baseball into Regional Weekend one week from now.

A full summary of the auto-bids is coming to you tomorrow. For now, let’s summarize what was learned on Friday.

Key Updates - Host Picture

• Mississippi State had a golden opportunity to jump into a hosting position against Tennessee, yet fell short late. The result puts the Bulldogs at 25th in RPI and history is not on their side for hosting, despite a great year.

• Duke is a team that is tough to ignore. The Blue Devils have had a solid resume all year long. Duke has finally cracked the Top 20 of RPI after a 2-0 start in Charlotte. They will play Miami in the Semifinals in a must-win to host a Regional contest. For today, I am giving the Blue Devils the final host spot, this will likely change again in 24 hours.

• Oregon State is sitting in the Sweet 16 spot, the 16th in the RPI that is. The Beavers are done playing this week and need to root for Miami and FSU today in Charlotte, ECU falling again would be another potential path. OSU is still in the thick of the hosting discussion, just the odd team out for this moment.

• Wake Forest had a key win over North Carolina late on Friday to advance to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament today vs. Florida State. Wake is on the brink of superseding teams with a win today and will be a projected host tomorrow should it occur.

• If Vandy runs through the rest of the SEC Tournament, they will certainly have a worthy RPI ranking (currently at 18) to be a host. After going 13-17 in SEC play during the year, this still makes that decision difficult. We will see how it shakes out with the surging Commodores.

Key Updates - Bubble

• TCU’s loss to Kansas not only ended the conference tournament run for the Horned Frogs but also left TCU wondering what Selection Monday might be like. The Big 12 is packed with bubble hopefuls. TCU is at 40 today in the RPI but had a losing conference record, a losing record in Quad 1, and a losing record in Quad 2. It’s difficult to give TCU the nod in comparison with Northeastern and others. Frogs and Huskies are both on pins and needles for the next 48 hours.

• The Pac-12 continues to hold interesting cards in the bracket math. Sticking to my guns that the league will find a way to put four teams in. Arizona, Oregon State, and Oregon are going to regionals. It comes down to if USC can secure the auto-bid with an upset over Arizona in the title today. Otherwise, I think the committee will find a way to get California into the NCAAs as one of the last bubble teams in.

• The Big Ten is also in the spotlight. Penn State is on fire, but not a bubble team. PSU and Indiana are the final two unbeaten teams in this tournament. IU has a good resume for a northern team, and I like their chances as of now. However, if Penn State takes this bid, one has to wonder if it comes at IU’s expense. Keep in mind IU’s AD is on the committee (and so is the Kansas State AD, fellow bubble team).

• Charleston and UNCW meet today in a critical matchup. UNCW is right on the edge of the bubble, and the team that doesn’t win this tournament will be sweating on Selection Monday. Due to weather delays, this is the winner’s bracket final. Delaware is still alive in the loser’s bracket to face the loser later this evening.

• James Madison continues to win important games, but they are nowhere near out of the woods yet. Today, the Dukes need to beat a very good Georgia Southern team twice to advance to Sunday’s Title game. If they fail, their 38th-ranked RPI will inevitably drop and a bid could be stolen tomorrow by the Eagles. Complicating Sun Belt matters even further is Appalachian State, which is still alive in the other semifinal. It feels like a four-bid league one way or another. If so, GSU and App State can spoil the day for JMU. I don’t want to fully write off Troy either, but the RPI (57 now) is in real rough shape.

Tournament Nuggets

• The WAC has reached peak chaos. Tarleton is ineligible (transitional year) to advance to the NCAAs. Yet, the Texans are one win away from winning the WAC Tournament. The WAC rule is that the regular-season champion would advance to the NCAAs if a non-eligible team wins its tournament. Grand Canyon is that team. Even though the Lopes were bounced early from this tournament, they are just one Texans win away from getting to the NCAAs regardless. They are back in the bracket today due to this loophole. To spice things up even further, this is the first season where California Baptist is eligible to compete in the NCAAs. The Lancers have rallied through the loser’s bracket and will face Tarleton in today’s championship game with the need to beat the Texans twice. A wild story is coming from the WAC in either result.

• Tulane and Evansville are still represented below as Auto Bids in the forecast. If ECU and/or Indiana State rally back to take the auto-bid(s) that will open up room for a team like TCU or UNCW to get back into the field. AAC and MVC remain must-watch. Also, the WCC could still have a bid steal - San Diego has been perfect, however.

• High Point is on the brink of history. The Panthers began competing in Division I in 2000 and joined the Big South Conference the same season. They have never advanced to the NCAAs. This is just their second Big South Title Game appearance ever. USC Upstate needs to beat High Point twice today to spoil the party. High Point is hosting the event.

• Northern Kentucky joined Division 1 in 2012 and has had some really rough years. Something special is brewing in 2024. The Norse have been at the top or near the top of the Horizon all year long. They are one win away from the ultimate dream. Youngstown State, the 6-seed, rallied to make the Title matchup vs. NKU. The Penguins would need to win twice today to take away the moment from the Norse.

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - SATURDAY MAY 25th

Bubble Breakdown

Last Five In

60. Alabama
61. James Madison
62. Florida
63. California
64. Northeastern

First Five Out

• TCU

• UNC Wilmington

• Kansas State

• Georgia Tech

• Troy

Special Edition: College Baseball Championship Week Vol. 3

Projecting The 64, Volume 3

Chaos is alive and well. It wouldn’t be Championship Week without it. We have made it to Friday and we have key teams who hold the cards for potential bid steals playing in loser brackets or already eliminated in the case of UConn. Ahead of a wild Friday - Let’s break it all down, shall we?

Key Updates - Hosting

American Conference - This is starting to feel like an annual tradition. The ECU Pirates have fallen once again in the AAC Tournament. This leaves Wichita State and Tulane as the remaining unbeaten teams. The AAC now projects as a two-bid league, joining the MVC and Big East. ECU remains alive in the loser’s bracket, where a handful of bubble teams are rooting hard for a Pirates’ rally back to the Title.

SEC - Vanderbilt and LSU have taken this tournament by storm. LSU is solid as a two-seed with no major chance to move to a Host. However, Vandy is up to 17th in RPI today and I have to believe if they seal this tournament with two more wins, they will be a Host on Monday morning. Mississippi State has built a legitimate case as well. The Bulldogs sit at 21st in RPI. They own 19 wins over SEC teams and could get north of 20 league victories in the coming days. They get a crack at Tennessee in a loser-out game today, a win moves the needle (of course).

ACC - Duke cooled off NC State, who was red-hot, in a dominant fashion yesterday. The Blue Devils are up to 19th in the RPI and are in the thick of the hosting conversation. They’ve advanced to Saturday’s semifinals and will be playing this weekend for a chance to play Regionals at home in Durham.

Big West - No conference tournament. UC Santa Barbara is just fighting off UC Riverside and hoping to stay high enough in RPI to remain in hosting position. The Gauchos and others (such as ECU) need the Mississippi State’s, Duke’s, and Oklahoma State’s of the world to take another loss. A loss of any kind by UCSB to UC Riverside likely would mean they miss out on hosting. Just an RPI killer if it happens.

Key Updates - Bubble

Bid Allocations to focus on

• Big Ten gets 3

• Pac-12 gets 4

• Big East gets 2 (clinched now with UConn out)

• Sun Belt should get 4

That’s it, everyone else on the Bubble is in a giant pot with very little to no bids left.

What Happened?

• Northeastern goes 0-2 in the CAA Tournament. A brutal result for the Huskies. A major credit to them for scheduling 31 road games and going 19-12. That keeps their RPI in a good at-large range at 33 today, but it was too difficult to find a spot for them today. This will be a sweaty 75 hours til Selection Monday.

• Xavier wins a classic game over UConn, then loses a classic game to St. John’s on the same day. I am struggling to find room for three Big East teams. Xavier is at 38 in the RPI and played the second-hardest schedule in the country. Barely out for today, but the Muskies are still playing baseball - which provides its resume a chance to improve.

• James Madison rallied from six down to stun Louisiana. Cajuns are done in two games of the Sun Belt tournament after running away with the regular-season championship. I am keeping Coastal Carolina in the field despite going just 1-2 this week. The KPI is strong for CCU at 19th and the committee influence here cannot be ignored. JMU and Troy are in the thick of a battle for a potential fourth bid for the conference. Georgia Southern is unbeaten this week and could steal the bid. High drama in this tournament.

• Kansas State is out after a 1-2 Big XII Tourney showing. They find themselves 47th in the RPI, and 43rd in the KPI. I am keeping them on the board with their AD on the committee. Also damaging to the Wildcats, is fellow bubble teams like UCF and TCU continuing to win. Both the Knights and Frogs are climbing into a safe landing spot. Cincinnati had a great conference year, but the RPI fell to 63 after the loss to Texas Tech. That will do it for the Bearcats in 2024.

• The Pac-12 produced two of four potential bid stealers into the Semifinals. USC and Stanford are right in the mix to take the bid. Cal (Bubble In) is also alive and looking to take it themselves. This helps me justify Cal projected in this week. I believe they would be out if USC or Stanford takes the auto-bid. One way or another, I believe the PAC lands with four teams in.

• Indiana State (won on Thursday) and ECU are still fighting for a chance to host. They may both be in the loser’s bracket but they have plenty of motivation to storm back and with their tournaments. Right now both leagues are projected as two-bid leagues. Should either rally back to win it, a spot opens for a bubble team.

• As crazy as things are, two more bids could vanish from the Bubble picture. In the WCC, San Diego is still undefeated, but Portland is surging too. Pilots can take that bid potentially. And in the CAA, UNCW is barely out and can win this bid to help the league get two bids. Critical game vs. Charleston today and we may see them meet more times in the Championship, which would only help each of their respective RPI rankings.

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - FRIDAY, MAY 24th

Bubble Breakdown

Last Five In

60. Alabama
61. California
62. TCU
63. Florida
64. James Madison

First Five Out

• Northeastern

• Troy

• Kansas State

• UNC Wilmington

• Georgia Tech

Special Edition: College Baseball Championship Week Vol. 2

Projecting The 64, Volume 2

Welcome to Thursday, everybody. It’s a big moving day today with nearly every top-seed within conference tournament play taking the field. Since Volume 1 on Tuesday, a few impactful results have occurred. Let’s break it down.

Updates to Automatic Bids

SEC - The Top four seeds all lost on Wednesday, which means the highest remaining team in the winner’s bracket is now Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are on the brink of coming up to take one of the 16 host spots should they stay hot deep into the weekend. Currently up to 19 in the RPI, a top 16 finish will likely bring a regional to Starkville.

Sun Belt - Louisiana got beat by Old Dominion in the opener and find themselves in the loser’s bracket right now. Southern Miss is the new projected auto-bid from the league. Both teams remain a projected 2-seed within regionals.

Missouri Valley - One of the key leagues to track as Indiana State is an absolute lock for the NCAAs, but nobody else is even on the bubble. The Sycamores fell in extra innings against SIU yesterday in a marathon. The odds of ISU rallying through the loser’s bracket may be even stiffer thanks to the long game yesterday and going deep into the bullpen. A strong likelihood has emerged for the MVC to become a 2-Bid league. Evansville won and is the host of the tournament here. We went with the Purple Aces for the auto-bid choice because they are already a round deeper than the 2-seed, Murray State. Keep your eye on the Valley.

Big Ten - Top-seed Illinois ran into a recent buzzsaw in Penn State to taste an upset loss to open. For the two-seed Nebraska, it was even worse. To get beat 15-2 against Ohio State is not a great showing. Both the Huskers and Illini remain alive in the loser’s bracket and are part of the projected Field of 64. The projected auto-bid is now Indiana as the highest remaining unbeaten team. We talked about the Hoosiers in Volume 1, a lot of intrigue in Bloomington - especially with their AD on the Selection Committee.

Atlantic-10 - Saint Louis was knocked into the Loser’s Bracket at the hands of Richmond. The Billikens do not own an at-large resume, so this has them entirely out for today. VCU has had a solid year and is the new favorite to win the league. RPI in the 70’s right now with a decent road record. All of that was just enough to get the Rams one of the final three-seeds in Regional forecasting.

Southland - Lamar’s once-storied season has leaked oil down the stretch. That continued in the SLC Tournament opening loss to eighth-seeded UIW. Nicholls also had another strong season and is the new projected auto-bid. Should Nicholls win this tournament, you may see the Colonels as a three-seed in regionals.

SWAC - An interesting regular season format containing two divisions (West and East) who never face each other. So here at the conference tournament, we have teams facing each other for the first time. The West top-seed Texas Southern fell, so we have switched to the East top-seed, Florida A&M, who took care of business yesterday.

ASUN - The league tournament groups the top four seeds for round-robin pool play. I hesitate to change an auto-bid projection based on pool play alone, but in this case, all four teams were tied with 10 league losses. Kennesaw State has emerged thus far with a 2-0 start. Our forecasted champ previously was Austin Peay, who lost the opener. Today, Kennesaw State is the projected auto-bid.

Summit League - The most unpredictable league of them all! Oral Roberts had a rough year for ORU standards and is coming off of their epic run to the College World Series in 2023. Down the stretch, the Golden Eagles have shown more life, and ORU happens to be hosting the conference tournament. Omaha was the original pick, they fell in the opener to Northern Colorado and ORU took care of North Dakota State. Somehow, ORU has made it back into the projected field today after months of misery. Let’s see if they can finish the job this weekend in Tulsa.

Bubble Updates

Costly Losses

• James Madison fell to Georgia Southern, dropping the Dukes down to 49th in RPI

• Georgia Tech went 0-2 in the ACC Tournament, dropping to 50th in the RPI

• Kansas State’s opening-round loss to Kansas hurt from a record standpoint. A nice bounceback win over West Virginia yesterday has the Wildcats at 41 in RPI. Keep in mind that the K-State AD is on the committee. A critical game vs. TCU looms large today.

• Virginia Tech needed a monster week. Instead, they go 0-2 and their season is done. There is no chance for the Hokies at this point.

Moving Up

• Troy got off to a good start by beating Appalachian State. Despite a 52nd-ranked RPI, the Trojans are 17-10 in road games and crush the rest of the current bubble in that key area. With JMU falling out, finding a home in the forecast for the Trojans was additionally logical.

• Vanderbilt went from bubbles to a solid two-seed in two performances at the SEC Tournament. Commodores took it to Tennessee on the big stage yesterday.

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - THURSDAY, MAY 23rd

Bubble Breakdown

Last Five In

60. Florida
61. California
62. TCU
63. Troy
64. Kansas State

First Five Out

• UNC Wilmington

• St. John’s

• Cincinnati

• James Madison

• Georgia Tech

Special Edition: College Baseball Championship Week Vol. 1

Championship Week: Projecting The 64, Volume 1

Hello, everybody! Welcome to The Bracketeer's Field of 64 projections. I’m excited to have you here. Over this coming week, we will go through projections for the Baseball Regionals and overall road to the CWS. Expect a daily update beginning on Thursday, May 23rd. That will take us right up to Selection Monday, May 27th.

Why Baseball?

I have long been fascinated with the way Regional hosts and regional draws are built. And of course, it is always exciting to determine who should be in, and who doesn’t belong in the Field of 64. Unlike College Basketball - the sport of College Baseball still uses the RPI Formula to help sort game results and teams overall. It makes the criteria for being selected a little different than hoops. Leveraging geography first and understanding recent committee history drives the process for region assignments.

To properly start the week, I analyze all the factors made available to the selection committee. Those criteria now include Quadrant records and the KPI rankings. This adds some additional nuance to the process.

To be ultimately prepared, let’s review who is on the 2024 NCAA Baseball Selection Committee:

With Sherard Clinkscales’ vacancy on the NCAA Baseball Selection Committee, his replacement is Florida athletic director Scott Stricklin. Here’s the entire selection committee roster. pic.twitter.com/aUq8gtflV1

— Kendall Rogers (@KendallRogers) April 30, 2024

How will the Projections be modeled?

I strive to stay in line with the core values of forecasting March Madness. A key to that is to forecast projections as if the season ended today, and not depend on projected results.

One of the enjoyable byproducts of this methodology for the week ahead is when a forecasted league champ enters the loser’s bracket at any given time, they will be replaced the following morning in the forecast for automatic bid purposes. A big reason for this is to stay nimble and ready for any chaos that will inevitably occur during Championship Week. I will only use teams who are in the winner’s bracket to represent each league’s automatic bid. If a league uses pool play, I will wait until pool play concludes to reallocate the forecasted representative, making things spicy around here daily.

If you love a school that needs to win its conference tournament, this makes the week a bit more fun, because you will be able to gain a sense of where your team might be slotted if they are hot and on the right side of the bracket this week.

Another key reason for this approach is to get sharp on bubble teams. There have been prior seasons where as many as seven or eight bids get stolen, which has tightened the bubble immensely and dramatically impacted the final bracket.

Which League is the most likely for Bid Steals this week?

The following leagues are the most prone for a bid steal, which would eliminate a bubble team with each bid that is taken.

• American Conference - Any other team except East Carolina is a bid stealer.

• WCC - Any other team except San Diego is a bid stealer.

• Missouri Valley - Any other team except Indiana State is a bid stealer.

The three above leagues are just begging for a second league member to take a bid. They are piping hot red flag warnings.

The following leagues project to get two teams into the field, but perhaps a third bid would be possible with an upset this week:

• Conference USA - Dallas Baptist and Louisiana Tech are locked in. That means the door is wide open for a third team to join the NCAAs from CUSA.

• CAA - Likely a 2-3 bid league range outcome here. Charleston is the league champion, but not a lock to make it. Northeastern had the best RPI ranking (29), but finished in 3rd place. Huskies still have work to do this week. And UNC-Wilmington has fallen to 48th despite a strong resume - the Seahawks are not safe. Then there are the other teams looking to steal. This is a critical week in the league.

• Big East - Projecting two bids. The Big East finished as the fourth-toughest league in America. Because of this, the Big East should get two bids, regardless of the outcome. If UConn wins the tournament, there is a world here where the Big East could be stuck as a one-bid league when it’s all said and done.

• Big Ten - At this point, I think Illinois is going to get in. They finished 18-6 and were the clear league champs, also improving their RPI to 43. Nebraska is the only real lock in this conference. Indiana’s AD is on the committee and that has me pondering if the league can work some magic here to pick up a third team into the field. Perhaps the bid steal route, or maybe a committee-based reach to include the Hoosiers (15-9 in the league, but 59th in RPI) - it’s all in play for Selection Monday right now.

FIELD OF 64 PROJECTIONS - TUESDAY, MAY 21st

BUBBLE BREAKDOWN

Last Five In

60. James Madison
61. Vanderbilt
62. Xavier
63. UNC Wilmington
64. TCU

First Five Out

• Troy

• Cincinnati

• California

• Indiana

• Lousiville

Bracketology Big Board 02.12.24

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The list shown below will be reflected in Today’s Bracket Forecast under the “Bracketology” tab, which will be posted on Monday afternoon (Pacific Time), February 12th.

CHANGES SINCE FRIDAY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
CUSA - Sam Houston (First Place representative due to Head-to-Head results)
SEC - Alabama (First Place representative due to Head-to-Head results)

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
Nevada (First Four)
Gonzaga (First Four)

SEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 02.02.2024

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The list shown below will be reflected in Today’s Bracket Forecast under the “Bracketology” tab, which will be posted on Friday afternoon (Pacific Time), January 26th.

MID-WEEK SUMMARY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big 12 - Iowa State (First Place representative due to Head-to-Head results)
CAA - Towson (First Place representative due to Head-to-Head results)
MEAC - N.C. Central (First Place representative due to Head-to-Head results)
Patriot - Colgate (First Place alone)
SEC - Alabama (First Place alone)
SWAC - Grambling (First Place representative due to Head-to-Head results)

New At-Large teams today represented below in the Field of 68:
Nebraska (10-Seed)
Michigan State (First Four)
Oregon (First Four)

SEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 01.26.24

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The list shown below will be reflected in Today’s Bracket Forecast under the “Bracketology” tab, which will be posted on Friday afternoon (Pacific Time), January 26th.

MID-WEEK SUMMARY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Charlotte (First Place representative due to Head-to-Head results)
MAAC - Quinnipiac (First Place alone)
MVC - Indiana State (First Place alone)
SEC - Tennessee (First Place representative due to Head-to-Head results)

New At-Large teams today represented below in the Field of 68:
Texas (10-Seed)
Northwestern (11-Seed)
Colorado (First Four)

SEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 01.19.24

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The New Bracket can be found - HERE

SEED LIST 1-68

Preseason Big Board 2023-24 Season

As part of the season’s opening week, it is finally time to reveal the forecasted Field of 68. More to come later this week on how the selections came to be. For now, here is the starting point for 2023-24.

SEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 03.12.23

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The list shown below will be largely reflected in the next Bracket Forecast under the “Bracketology” tab, which will be posted on Sunday, March 12th.

This is a final look at the seed list this A.M. following Princeton’s win. You may notice a few tweaks in Bracketeer’s final bracket, which should be posted by 5PM EST.

WEEKEND SUMMARY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
IVY - Princeton (IVY Champs)
SWAC - Texas Southern (SWAC Champs)
WAC - Grand Canyon (WAC Champs)

Bracketology Big Board 03.07.23

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The list shown below will be largely reflected in the next Bracket Forecast under the “Bracketology” tab, which will be posted on Tuesday PM, March 7th.

WEEKEND SUMMARY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
CAA - Charleston (Highest Remaining Seed in CAA Tournament)
Horizon - Cleveland State (Highest Remaining Seed in HL Tournament)
SoCon - Furman (SoCon Champs)
Sun Belt - Louisiana (Sun Belt Champs)

New At-Large teams today represented below in the Field of 68:
Wisconsin (11-Seed)
Penn State (First Four)

SEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 02.27.23

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The list shown below will be largely reflected in Tomorrow’s Bracket Forecast under the “Bracketology” tab, which will be posted on Tuesday AM, February 28th following the first night of Championship Week.

WEEKEND SUMMARY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big West - UC Riverside (three-way tie with UCI and UCSB, 2-1 record)
MVC - Bradley (Regular Season Champs)
SoCon - Furman (Regular Season Champs)

New At-Large teams today represented below in the Field of 68:
Arizona State (First Four)
North Carolina (First Four)

DESMOND CAMBRIDGE HALF-COURT GAME WINNER FOR ARIZONA STATE!!! pic.twitter.com/7RZK0gpcJd

— Aram Cannuscio (@AC__Hoops) February 25, 2023

SEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 02.24.23

BIG BOARD

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The list shown below will be largely reflected in Tomorrow’s Bracket Forecast under the “Bracketology” tab, which will be posted on Saturday AM, February 25th following a critical night of league play.

MID-WEEK SUMMARY

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Pittsburgh (First Place due to Head-to-Head results)
MAC - Toledo (First Place alone)
Sun Belt - Marshall (First Place due to Head-to-Head results)

New At-Large teams today represented below in the Field of 68:
West Virginia (First Four)

SEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 02.20.23

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The list shown below is reflected in Today’s Bracket Forecast under the “Bracketology” tab, which will be posted later this afternoon.

SEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 02.18.23

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The list shown below is reflected in Today’s Bracket Forecast under the “Bracketology” tab.

SEED LIST 1-68

Bracketology Big Board 02.15.23

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The Next Bracket will be posted on Friday, February 17th.

Last night’s action created a lot of movement, particularly in the middle of the board. Many more key contests are coming tonight and Thursday to help get us a completely revised board for Friday. Here is a check-in on where things stand:

BIG BOARD

Bracketology Big Board 02.07.23

The Big Board, which incorporates the 1-68 Seed List, and the next set of teams in the hunt for an At-Large. This is intended to give the College Basketball community a glimpse of the big picture.

The New Bracket can be found - HERE

BIG BOARD

SEED LIST 1-68

Off The Radar: Who is improving the most?

The end of non-conference play is quickly approaching. The quality wins are largely secured. We are at one of College Basketball’s crossroads, the transition from Non-league play to league play. And yet, we are also wrapping up another important time period - between post-Multi-Team Event and Conference play tip-offs.

Each November, the majority of programs roll out their best-perceived players and rotations in an effort to maximize results, of course. Staffs of these programs usually have a lot of puzzles to solve. Who meshes best together? Who can actually defend? Who is efficient? Which players are situationally suited for which times in the game? These and several other mysteries are unearthed during the process of a handful of November tilts. Per my analysis, a quality gauge is to start looking at teams post-MTE (Multi-Team Event). Less than a month removed from the vast majority of Holiday events, perhaps we can use the data to see who is both A) Off the Grid and B) Going to hit their stride in January, aka be a league title contender. If all else fails, these teams are finding some recent mojo and warrant your attention. November 27th was the date that most events concluded, so we will use that as a launching point.

Which programs are hitting their stride after November 27th?

FAU has been an absolute juggernaut most of the season and especially in the past month when healthy.

Before we fully go off the radar, a quick shoutout to Florida Atlantic’s Owls. FAU has been lights out in this timeframe, going 4-0 and ranking Sixth! in the country overall. FAU ranks in the Top 10 nationally over this period in both offensive and defensive rebounding, eFG%, three-point defense, and two-point offense. The Owls do a ton of things very well that contribute to winning, which is why we pegged them high in the preseason evaluations. This level of dominance has surpassed all imaginations.

Now, let’s dive into what it means to be “Off The Radar” - at least for this post-Feast Week exercise together:

Criteria for Qualification

- Non Power Conference team
- Only looking at games since 11/27 (End of Feast Week and majority of MTEs}
- Looking for candidates who have been largely overlooked or got off to a bad start to the season.
- In the Top 100 nationally during these select date ranges to discover “trends”

Vermont

John Becker’s Catamounts had an unfamiliar November going 2-7. Some bad luck in tight losses against USC and UNCW, also a two-point OT loss at Cal State Fullerton added extra pain. There were some really bad performances mixed in there as well. If you can count on anyone to turn things around it is the six-time America East Coach of the Year, John Becker.

Sure enough, since that really rough start, the Catamounts are 4-0, which includes three true road wins. UVM has held opponents to just 20% (4th in the nation) three-point shooting during the brief stretch and notched an impressive road win against perimeter darlings, Colgate. As a team, Vermont has graded out to be the 28th-best team in the country, per Torvik, during this stretch. As far-fetched as that likely is, it is mentioned as a testament to how much better UVM is playing, especially on defense. Two games are left in non-league play before the America East journey begins. A home game vs. Toledo and a trip to play at Miami. Key chances for the Catamounts to continue building up for another A-East run.

It has not been easy to score against an improved Vermont defense in December.

Montana State

The Northern Classic took place between 11/25-27 in the Great White North of Quebec, Canada. It was the opposite of friendly to the Big Sky preseason favorite, the Bobcats. MSU went up there and lost three straight games and needed to do some soul-searching afterwards.

The staff leaned heavily on Jubrile Belo in Canada and noticed perhaps a drop-off in quality by giving him 26+ minutes on three straight days. In the past three weeks, he hasn’t been out there longer than twenty minutes in any single game and overall has been more efficient. Fellow British teammate, Great Osobor is 6-8, 245 lbs. and has seen his workload increase and in turn a bigger share of minutes lately. Osobor can score in bunches and his frame can be a consistent problem for defenses - particularly while Belo is on the bench taking a breather. RaeQuan Battle, an elite shooter at times, really stepped up in the Southern Utah win, scoring 29 points including seven triples. In a mostly down Big Sky, the Bobcats remain the favorite and have really shown some efficient signs of how they are going to repeat as champions lately.

Great Osobor has earned more of a usage share of late, and is a problem off the bench for MSU.

Utah Tech

Do you like surprises? Here is one for you: The Trailblazers of Utah Tech (formerly Dixie State) are performing like a Top 50 team efficiency-wise in the past three weeks and change. You can ignore the two wins over non-D1 teams (because I certainly am) and take a closer look at a five-point loss in Logan where the Trailblazers actually had a second-half lead and hung with the unbeaten USU Aggies from start to finish. This is not to say that UT is now a WAC favorite or even a contender yet, but it is fascinating to see how they’ve been able to improve. Utah Tech has quickly jumped 52 spots from 274 to 222 in KenPom since playing in its Feast Week event in North Dakota.

Depending on the matchup, 6-10 Tanner Christensen can just be a flat-out mismatch for opponents. The Sophomore transfer via Idaho had a dominant outing recently in a 12-point road win at Weber State, where he had nine field goals at close range. He can uphold his endurance (logged 30+ minutes on four occasions) with consistent play (84th in ORtg nationally for the season). The 5-11 Cameron Gooden’s hot outside shooting kept them close to Utah State, and that can open up things in the post. Also, defenses need to respect the abilities of 6-5 Junior Isaiah Pope. Pope went for 29 against Weber State and has been most efficient in this stretch. The only bad loss of the season came against North Dakota earlier in November, and this team remains a deep dark horse and could certainly play spoiler in the super competitive WAC.

Cameron Gooden is the straw that stirs the Utah Tech drinks. Gooden has a career-high 106.3 ORtg, three game MVP awards, shooting 42.5% from deep, and has three 20+ point performances.

Rice

The Owls were likely written off by many after getting completely dominated at Middle Tennessee in the way-too-early CUSA opener back on November 15th. That ugly loss combined with losing by 40 at Pepperdine on opening night had many analysts looking for other options while investigating the depth of Conference USA. Well in its past five contests, the Owls are 4-1, which of course includes the infamous game at Texas (following the arrest of Chris Beard) where Rice lost in overtime. Over the weekend, Rice punished an accomplished Northwestern State team by 37. Prior to that, the Owls secured a double-digit road win at Texas State and took care of Prairie View A&M. Rice is a very quiet 8-3 with three very loud losses.

Quincy Olivari has elevated his game in a big way during our preferred time frame for the article. Olivari has scored at least 22 points in each of the five games and earned KenPom MVP game awards in four of them. Olivari is able to get to the foul line with regularity, create opportunities for his teammates involved, and makes teams pay at the line (81% FT shooter). He has hovered around a 100 ORtg most of his career, and this season that metric has ballooned to a 111 rating. All signs are positive in recent games. The Owls will find out for real where they stand, as they head to Western Kentucky to resume CUSA play on 12/29.

Quincy Olivari is playing his best basketball of his Rice career and the Owls have really elavated their game as a team in the past few weeks.

Ball State

Fresh off its third straight double-digit margin victory, the Cardinals are splashing the nets all over North America. During feast week, this Ball State program under the new leadership of first-year Head Coach Michael Lewis learned some tough lessons in narrow losses to both the aforementioned Vermont program and San Jose State. The positive was a tight win over Missouri State to help build late-game confidence. Coming out of the Bahamas, the Cards went to Pittsburgh and played its best game of the year at Duquesne, only to lose in heartbreaking fashion:

Duquesne is now 7-1 after buzzer beating win over Ball State. Jimmy Clark with the 3-pointer to turn 2-point deficit into one point win 78-77. Great call by @TimBenzPGH pic.twitter.com/YiEc4Jhast

— Bob Pompeani (@KDPomp) December 4, 2022

The Cardinals didn’t dwell on that despite it being a one in fifty (estimated odds based on the degree of difficulty) shot. Ball State came back from it focused and ready to show that it wasn’t a fluke. As mentioned in the open, they’ve now steamrolled three teams in a row, and two of those were away from Muncie. Some of Lewis’ finest work early on was convincing Jaylin Sellers to stay at Ball State. Sellers, the Sophomore from Columbus, GA, has gone for 20+ the past two games. The 129.8 ORtg for Sellers is ranked 52nd nationally out of all eligible players. The 6-9, 240 lb. Peyton Sparks is healthy and contributing now as a Sophomore. He gives Coach Lewis a real difference maker inside plus bringing Jarron Coleman back to Muncie from Mizzou was key. This team is shooting 40% from three this season, and over 45% during the selected period since Feast Week. If Coach Lewis can achieve any kind of consistent defense, they will be a real threat to win the MAC Tournament in March.

Ball State HC Michael Lewis worked hard to assemble talent and now has Ball State in position to be a top four team in the MAC in his first season.