FRIDAY FORTUNES
Do you remember East Carolina? A Pirates program that has been to six straight NCAA Tournaments typically finds a way to host, but somehow disappeared into the American Conference muck this year? Well, the Pirates have shown up in Clearwater this week, earning a 2-0 start and are one win away from the Championship Game. The other Pool is led by Tulane (2-0), which is the two-time defending AAC Tournament Champs. Green Wave sent some shockwaves to the Bubble by handing UTSA (Tournament lock) a loss yesterday. Tulane won the head-to-head series vs. ECU and has earned the projection to be in the Field of 64 this morning as the AAC’s Auto Bid.
That kicks us off! With 27 ongoing tournaments, this is just a small taste of the larger chaos happening to the projection.
As noted on Monday - we are locked in on five key conference tournaments that have the highest likelihood of bid theft: AAC, CUSA, CAA, Big West, and the Big Ten.
Dallas Baptist, Northeastern, Oregon/UCLA, and UC Irvine are perfect this week, so chalk is holding in the other four. That can quickly change.
- Nebraska vs. Oregon today in Omaha! Almost a home game for the Cornhuskers here, and a win eliminates the Ducks in the conference tournament. That would give us Nebraska vs. Penn State in the Big Ten Semifinals, with only UCLA (who faces Iowa in the other semifinal) as the last likely At-Large worthy team alive. The Big Ten has a lot of avenues to get a fourth bid entering today, but an Oregon win over Nebraska can quickly change that.
BIG EAST & SUN BELT THOUGHTS
The Big East has a quagmire that could lead to a one-bid scenario, which would be unfair in a lot of ways - but we are dealing with reality in Bracketeer projections. Xavier vs. UConn today in a loser-out, winner-to-the finals game. Xavier beat UConn three out of four times head-to-head this season, with a chance to go up 4-1 today. On the flipside, UConn’s overall resume is better, with quad records and three games better in the uniform Big East schedule. Still leaning UConn for the Big East’s second team in, as Creighton is one win away from Regionals now. However, With bids vanishing nationally, UConn is a last four in type team today and could get chopped by Monday. Precarious situation. And again, Xavier has a path to at-large land as well with a win today.
The Sun Belt is playing to its strengths with Coastal Carolina and Southern Miss mowing down the competition in their brackets. One win away for each to play for a much anticipated Championship Game, they didn’t meet in the regular season. Troy is battling in the loser’s bracket, beating Texas State yesterday, but the bubble is close. I love Troy’s case for an at-large because they didn’t lose a series all year until the last weekend of the season against mighty Southern Miss. Troy probably can’t afford to get bounced by Old Dominion today, however. Pins and needles moments ahead for Trojan nation, but the best news is both CCU and Southern Miss are squashing the potential SBC bid thieves thus far in the event.
FRIDAY’S NEEDLE MOVER GAMES
These games will have the biggest impact on tomorrow’s forecast:
TCU vs. Kansas, Big 12 Semifinals (KU can make big move toward hosting)
Cal Poly vs. UC Irvine, Big West Winner’s Bracket Final (CP will be Auto Bid rep with a win)
Xavier vs. UConn, Big East Loser’s Bracket Final (As Bubblicious as it gets)
Northeastern vs. UNC Wilmington, CAA Winner’s Bracket Final (UNCW will be Auto Bid rep with a win)
Arkansas vs. Ole Miss, SEC Quarterfinals, Razorbacks have a path to the #1 overall seed with some wins in Hoover, thanks to Texas loss yesterday. Will take a hard look tomorrow if Hogs win.
HOSTING SPOTS
Tennessee and Clemson’s wins this week have them in rock-solid hosting spots. They join Arkansas, Auburn, Coastal Carolina, Florida State, Georgia, LSU, North Carolina, Oregon, Oregon State, Texas, and Vanderbilt as sure-fire hosts.
That leaves us with a fierce fight for the three spots left. Ole Miss is the key here so far, they hit the magic 17 SEC wins by beating Florida in the SECT opener, and as stated earlier, I’m giving the SEC any benefit of the doubt in my forecast due to the current climate of College Sports. After the Rebels, I think UCLA and TCU are next. Georgia Tech is still very deserving, as is Southern Miss, and potentially Dallas Baptist or Kansas by the end of the week. The Yellow Jackets take on Clemson next in the ACC Tournament, a win and I believe they’ve got a host spot, but a loss would mean a 1-1 showing. The chances are pretty good that Southern Miss and DBU keep winning, and Southern Miss AD Jeremy McClain is right there sitting in the committee room. The Southern Miss File, however, also includes a 27th ranking in KPI, which could be a deterrent for committee voters. Kansas plays TCU next, possibly for a spot, so reserving a place for the Big 12 is wise here in my estimation.
In summary, it looks like TCU vs. Kansas for a host is possible. G-Tech can potentially overtake UCLA. If both fall, Southern Miss is ready to pounce. The quality options at this time of year are impressive. By Monday, anywhere from two to five deserving hosts will have to go on the road instead.
TOP 8 RACE
Arkansas has not even played, but it has been an awesome week of good fortune for the Hogs. This assumes the committee will value the 6-0 record that Arkansas posted against Texas and Vanderbilt combined. After the early rounds, Vandy has moved to #1 in both the RPI and the KPI. So it’s helping Arkansas the most! In Vandy’s case, this elevates them above UNC for now, but if UNC wins the ACC Tournament, they have a chance to get to the top of the board. Texas has the most to offer at this moment, but that can rapidly change. Vandy, Arkansas, and LSU are still alive to win the SEC Tournament, which is going to impress the committee on a superior level by the end of the week.
The others in the Top 8 for now remain Auburn, Georgia, LSU, and Oregon. Auburn and UGA have great bodies of work. Oregon, Coastal Carolina, Tennessee, and Florida State are still playing baseball, though, and can jump into this with more big wins. Oregon State is out of Top 8 contention at this point, I believe. Clemson will have a tough RPI to ignore if they win the ACC Tournament, but not sure if it will be enough for a full leap to the Top 8.
BUBBLE TALK
Time for some more cold water for the lover of mid-major programs. As stated before, the current climate of College Sports gives me limited faith that Cal Poly or Western Kentucky are going to be at-large teams. Fortunately, both haven’t lost yet this week and can go snag Auto Bids as it stands now.
Texas A&M’s baseball resume is more polarizing than some political topics. The bottom line is they are dangerous and in the right league. 13 wins is the annual benchmark for the SEC bubble, and they are technically there now with two wins in Hoover. The clear argument is three losses to historically poor Missouri. The only wins Mizzou had all year in the league! Unbelievable stuff. But do you think I’m going to guess the committee leaves an SEC team out after what we witnessed in Basketball and Softball? I don’t think so, Aggies are back in today.
That crushes a team like Arizona State or Virginia. Hard to believe that ASU would be left out after going 18-12 in the third-best league, but the final impression was brutal. Swept by fellow bubbler Oklahoma State and then lost to 12-seed BYU in a one-and-done Big 12 Tournament. I think this makes the argument for the Cowboys in over ASU fairly clear. Now we have Virginia, who is even worse in RPI than ASU, but the committee will likely understand the circumstances of UVA not getting the series vs. Florida State, which would’ve been a major boon to its RPI increasing. Give me the Cavs today, but losing to Boston College wasn’t great at all. And they are likely one of the next teams to get cut as we go forward.
The Southland remains the biggest mystery. In an equitable comparison, I think UTRGV and SELA are in a position to be left at home. Houston Christian won Game 1 of the Title Series over New Orleans and is in line to secure the Auto Bid. The elephant in the room is SE Louisiana, whose AD Jay Artigues is not just on the committee, but is the chairman. That not only helps SELA’s chances, but if the conversation leads to UTRGV being closer to the at at-large cutoff than SELA, there will still be a push for a 2-bid Southland, however possible. I’m not counting these teams out until our guy Jay sings to us on Monday!
Jay Artigues (Second from left in the photo) is not your ordinary NCAA Baseball Chairman. He is a former coach at SELA and lives and breathes baseball. He owns a Training Facility for Baseball and Softball players locally and worked to secure Hammond, LA as the Southland Tournament hosting location. He has an extraordinary feel for how this process will work and pull with the others in the room. And I may just be gutsy enough to project SE Louisiana as the last team in come Monday. Not saying they belong in, but come on people - this is just how it goes down in Baseball.
BRACKET FORECAST
LAST FIVE IN
Oklahoma State
Troy
Texas A&M
UConn
Virginia
STILL ALIVE, BUT OUT TODAY
SE Louisiana
Arizona State
UTRGV
Xavier
Cal Poly
Western Kentucky
Iowa