WELCOME TO CHAMPIONSHIP SATURDAY
Saturday promises to deliver some finality to a handful of our weeklong mysteries. The Big 12 Title Game is today, for example, with scorching Arizona looking to wrangle TCU in its backyard of Arlington, Texas, inside Globe Life Field. UC Irvine will have an opportunity to lock down the Big West double championship later tonight against Cal Poly or Hawai’i. And Creighton can take all the doubt away by knocking off UConn in today’s Big East Championship Game, with two chances to win as the tournament’s remaining unbeaten team.
FRIDAY SUMMARY
UConn took down Xavier, 11-2, to officially put the Musketeers into the At-Large pool. The Musketeers challenged themselves all season long, but I am afraid being the clear number three in the Big East won’t be enough, especially without a Big East employee on the committee. The Huskies, however, should be pretty safe now. If I am Xavier today, I am rooting for UConn to knock off Creighton twice.
Texas A&M was defeated in a tight one vs. LSU. The Aggies are now seeking to be the first SEC team since 1999 to win only 11 regular-season league games and be selected to the NCAA’s. Tough call, but I went ahead and took the Aggies out of the projection for now. Still struggling with what I think the committee will do with TAMU, Arizona State, and SE Louisiana. ASU would be the clear choice in an equitable committee.
Stetson and Austin Peay finally played each other! Stetson pulled out a tight win in a matchup of the ASUN’s heavyweights. The Hatters are in the projected field now in place of APSU, and a pretty clear 3-Seed with their bright and shiny 58th-ranked RPI.
Ole Miss knocked off Arkansas in another convincing result. The Rebels appear to be in terrific shape to host. And for the folks knocking the Ole Miss bad loss to Little Rock this season, take a peek at the current OVC bracket, where the Trojans are one win away from a regional themselves.
Milwaukee put a crooked number up on Wright State to send shockwaves across the Horizon League. The Raiders absolutely dominated this league all year, but now its the Panthers who are one win away from the glass slipper coming with them to a regional.
Sacramento State had a devastating day at the WAC Tournament. After beating mighty GCU earlier in the bracket, they fell to Utah Valley and fell again to Abilene Christian last night. The results end the Hornets’ season, and Utah Valley is now in the WAC driver’s seat.
SATURDAY FORECAST
This Forecast is based on the 2025 Selection Committee Policies and Principles and is based on a full simulation of the committee’s processes. This is not an opinion, it’s based on what I believe the 2025 Selection Committee will produce on Selection Monday, May 26th, 2025.
LAST TEAMS IN
UConn
Oklahoma State
Troy
Virginia
Arizona State
STILL ALIVE, BUT OUT
SE Louisiana
Texas A&M
UTRGV
Xavier
Western Kentucky
Cal Poly