BRACKET WATCH - DECEMBER 14TH
As we approach the final stretch of non-conference play, the picture of at-large bid allocation is starting to take shape. Teams are settling into their identities, and the holiday tournament results have given me plenty to analyze. With conference play looming for many programs, these next few games will be crucial in building non-conference resumes. and momentum into league play. The pressure is mounting and we have several rivalry matchups. Let's dive into the most compelling matchups of the day. These heavyweight games take on added significance for teams hoping to secure protected seeds come March
In each Bracket Watch column, the games previewed are divided into two important categories:
Heavyweight games: Games that will potentially impact the top 16 teams on the seed list. Better known as protected seeds.
Bubble games: Games that will most influence teams inside or outside of the bubble.
HEAVYWEIGHT GAMES
Tennessee at Illinois, Saturday, 5:30 PM ET, FOX Rick Barnes has the Vols clicking on all cylinders and it isn’t just defense this year. As a team the Vols are leading the country in 2-point FG%, third in overall FG%, and 10th overall offensive efficiency, per POM. The Volunteers are getting splendid production behind Igor Milicic's emergence as an all-around contributor and the steadiness of role guys like Cade Phillips and Felix Okpara. The real story is the dynamic backcourt. Chaz Lanier has been a godsend, transferring in from North Florida. Lanier is scorching at a 49% clip from deep and his backcourt mate is Zakai Ziegler, who does an incredible job facilitating this balanced attack. The best news of all? The defense remains elite. Vols are making opponents’ lives miserable. The second-best overall defense covers the perimeter with precision and great organization. Jahmai Mashack is seemingly everywhere defensively, swarming to deny cutters and shooters. That overall Vols package is going to test Illinois' dynamic influx of talent. The Fighting Illini will be backed by what figures to be a raucous crowd in Champaign. Phenom Will Riley is looking to build on some good early outings and feed off this home energy, but the real story is Kasparas Jakucionis. Jakucionis has come over from Lithuania and to this point has not hit the typical wall a first-year star from the European ranks would hit in College Basketball here. He’s got a four-game streak of 20+ points and is prolific. Coach Brad Underwood would prefer a few fewer turnovers, otherwise, this has been impressive to see from Jakucionis early on. Tomi Ivisic at 7-1 can pose some problems potentially for the Vols. He’s been on a nice rebounding streak and getting 30+ minutes in these past few important games. The Illini took a frustrating OT loss to Northwestern on the road, then bounced back to beat Wisconsin at home earlier this week. Illinois has stepped up on defense in their last five performances, ranking as the fourth-best defense in the country since November 21st. That gives us an incredible chess match with Tennessee’s toughest road test and its unbeaten record on the line against the Illini’s perfect home record so far. The Vols project as a possible 1-seed early, so a major chance for Illinois to score a top-of-the-resume win. For the Vols, a road win at Illinois will provide a potentially elite road win and help further distance the SEC from the B1G.
Gonzaga vs. UConn at Madison Square Garden, Saturday, 8 PM ET, FOX
The defending two-time national champions face Mark Few's experienced Bulldogs in a marquee MSG matchup. More importantly, these two teams aren’t exactly sitting in the penthouse. Gonzaga had a disappointing loss in the Bahamas to West Virginia, and just recently was on the cusp of a key win over Kentucky in Seattle before falling late to a surge from the Wildcats. UConn's story is well documented nationally. Taking the three losses in Maui, yet bounced back on the mainland to beat Baylor and a road win at Texas. Gonzaga's Ryan Nembhard has justified his decision to return, making everyone around him better, particularly Graham Ike who's having a stellar senior campaign, and Ben Gregg has been really efficient off the bench. UConn will have the home crowd in MSG, which has been notorious for having strong Connecticut contingents. A marquee game against a West Coast power will be incredibly intriguing. On the floor, Dan Hurley’s Huskies need to continue to grow and improve. A healthy Alex Karaban is the appropriate place to build. Harris Reed, Hassan Diarra, and Freshman Liam McNeeley have all been really key for this group as well. The stakes are critical for the Big East to pick up a much-needed non-conference win and continue to aid UConn back toward the protected seed area. They’ll need to figure out a systematic Gonzaga offense to hang with the Bulldogs. GU has the second-best adjusted offense nationally. For Gonzaga themselves, this is a team with 1-seed in the West aspirations and two key non-conference chances left with this and UCLA. GU certainly wants to seize this opportunity, especially off the loss to Kentucky. Bulldogs will need to be organized defensively. The Huskies bring effective paint play and are prolific inside the arc. GU’s ability to whether the MSG crowd will be a mental test to overcome.
Arizona State vs. Florida in Atlanta, Saturday, 3:30 PM ET, SECN Bobby Hurley's Sun Devils have been the surprise of the Big 12 you can argue. The Sun Devils are 8-1 with wins over St. Mary’s, New Mexico, Grand Canyon, and Santa Clara all away from home. ASU also put up a strong showing against the aforementioned Gonzaga squad in the Kennel, losing by just eight in a very tight game. Sun Devils have blended highly talented freshmen with experienced mid-major transfers in BJ Freeman and Basheer Jihad. Jihad gets to the foul line early and often for this team. The Freshman star has been Jason Sanon who has not only shot the ball well but also demonstrated grand shot selection and decision-making. Fellow Freshman Jayden Quaintance has been one of the better shot blockers nationally already and the Sun Devils have been difficult to navigate the paint against. That leads us to the Florida Gators. UF has really been steamrolling anyone and everyone in its path. They arrive in Atlanta with lofty metrics. Currently eighth overall in POM, and performing like a top-five team in the country for most of the year per Torvik. The Gators did a nice job scheduling manageable yet not bottomfeeding opponents. They’ve blown out Wichita State, Virginia, Wake Forest, and others. The closest game they’ve been a part of is a 13-point true road win at rival Florida State. They enter this two-game stretch with North Carolina next on Tuesday in Charlotte. So it does feel like the Gators’ toughest test yet, and this will be the last of the non-conference hurdles. Florida’s defense is causing opponents to go deep into shot clocks and take less-than-ideal shots. ASU will have to be careful not to fall into that trap often in the half-court game. With this game happening in Atlanta perhaps, we will see the two sides feel each other out for a bit before a run occurs. ASU continues swinging for the non-conference fences before they go to Springfield next week to face UMass. Another chance here to really feel great about its chances to be an NCAA team if they can get a major win over Florida. For the Gators, they are simply looking to win this game and stay healthy and balanced ahead of the UNC game on Tuesday.
Ohio State vs. Auburn in Atlanta, Saturday, 1 PM ET, ESPN2 Bruce Pearl's Tigers look every bit of a top-5 team behind Johni Broome's dominant interior presence. The Buckeyes' Bruce Thornton has made the leap to stardom, leading Ohio State's unexpected rise back into the national conversation. Auburn's suffocating perimeter defense meets Auburn's unstoppable and efficient all-around offense in this Holiday Hoopsgiving showcase. Ohio State’s Devin Royal has really increased his leadership and production lately. Royal owns a streak of six consecutive games in double-figures with averages of 17.5 points and 8.2 rebounds. He has hit 68 percent of his shots (41 of 60) during that span and was the recent MVP in the 80-66 win over Rutgers. This Ohio State team has mostly impressed and I liked them a lot in preseason. The faith/knowledge/trust that the administration had in Jake Diebler sent a message to this team entering the portal season where he then brought back the key winner, Meechie Johnson. Aaron Bradshaw was part of that transfer haul and he has been cleared to return. Micah Parrish from San Diego State has provided key glue early. A puncher’s chance against very elite Auburn is all you can ask for if you are the Buckeyes and they have one. Auburn has been a freight train in this event though. They love playing in nearby Atlanta and have pounded multiple Big Ten teams here in the past. A drubbing by 28 over Indiana last year, and a 31-point demolition of Nebraska three years ago. So, Ohio State has their work cut out for them. But what an opportunity!
Memphis at Clemson, Saturday, 11 AM ET, ESPN2 Penny Hardaway's Tigers are proving they belong in the national discussion, with the dynamic duo of PJ Haggerty and Tyrese Hunter. Clemson's recent run of six straight wins includes a win over Kentucky and much-improved Penn State. Littlejohn Coliseum has become one of the nation's toughest venues as the Wildcats learned, it is Kentucky’s only loss to date. Ian Schieffelin is a joy to watch operate in the paint. He is a near-contortionist with a variety of angles to create different shots. He has also used that body to be one of the top offensive and defensive rebounders in the ACC. Clemson brought in Viktor Lakhin from Cincinnati to help pose the two-big threat and it has worked. The Chase Hunter and Chauncey Wiggins backcourt has been delivered with flying colors. The intrigue now comes as Memphis took a somewhat surprising home loss to Arkansas State last Sunday. How will these Tigers respond? For the home Clemson Tigers, another key non-league win helps a lot with the ACC down as a collective whole and Clemson has to be ready for a trip to rival South Carolina on Tuesday night as well. Unfortunately for Memphis, the AAC is down - so these next few non-league games (at Clemson, at Virginia, Mississippi State, and Ole Miss) are paramount for the bigger picture.
Texas A&M vs. Purdue in Indianapolis, Saturday, 12 PM ET, CBS The Boilermakers' Braden Smith continues his quest as a made star in the Big Ten. The big story is the planted flag on the ground by big man Trey Kaufman-Renn, who is not only the vocal point offensively but an all-around beast. His passing skills must be addressed too. Kaufman-Redd woke up this morning as the 7th best player in the KenPom POTY measure. Buzz Williams's team is notoriously tough as nails. The Aggies still have Wade Taylor IV navigating the offense, who presents the experience to go into Indy and lead the Aggies to a win here. The addition of Zhuric Phelps not only adds scoring threats but substantially increases ball pressure. Matt Painter's squad owns two losses thus far but does own wins over Ole Miss and Alabama. Now he has Texas A&M and Auburn on consecutive weekends. A chance here for the B1G as a whole to close the gap. For the Aggies, the squad with the nation’s top offensive rebounding rates, this serves as a chance for its best win away from home and follows last week’s impressive neutral-court win over Texas Tech. Henry Coleman and Pharrel Payne each weigh 250 pounds and its no secret why they are two of the top offensive rebounders in the SEC. This is the last substantial non-conference test for Texas A&M.
This is Non-Conference? Welcome to 2024-25.
UCLA vs. Arizona in Phoenix, Saturday, 3 PM ET, ESPN2 It is challenging for anyone to digest this as a non-conference game, but it is for now. Tommy Lloyd's Wildcats have stumbled out of the gate more often than what we are used to. Four Wildcat losses have sent the coach soul-searching a bit. Perhaps the Cats needed another shooter? Hard to say, but Arizona continues to demolish anyone inferior to their level as proven by its 36-point drubbing over Southern Utah a week ago. UCLA's not a great candidate to fall into any kind of track meet and poses a threat to the way Arizona prefers to go rim-to-rim. The Bruins go at a slower pace and defend at pretty much an elite level. Kobe Johnson had a reputation in the Pac-12 as the best overall defender, and he remains the standard. To date, Eric Dailey has matched his energy defensively and created a bundle of defensive love per Evan Miya’s player ratings. The Bruins are big at most positions and can go bigger if needed with four different rotation players weighing 230+ pounds and reserve Aday Mara standing at 7-3. They’ve been a freight train since losing to New Mexico early in the year, winning seven straight. Arizona has the upper hand with this game being played in Phoenix. How Caleb Love responds to different UCLA looks, of course, will be under the microscope. Arizona does not want to take a fifth non-league loss prior to entering an unfamiliar league for conference play. Bruins are looking to add another piece of silver to its solid resume and keep the wins stacking.
Marquette at Dayton, Saturday, 7 PM ET, CBS Sports Network A storied rivalry will be renewed Today with substantial stakes. Let’s start with the low-hanging fruit, the Dayton Flyers. Dayton is 11-6 all-time vs. Marquette in UD Arena. With Marquette being a clear contender and the top current contender to win the Big East, this opportunity offers a significant reward with a Dayton win. The Flyers played very competitively in Maui and had many chances to beat both UNC and vaunted Iowa State. They did leave the islands with an 18-point win over UConn and now a chance to inflict even more pain against the Big East. Any other A-10 program likely would not have this opportunity to host a premier Big East team, but Dayton’s budget and reputation for incredible fan support provide them a privilege today. You look at the lineup and you see a power conference roster as well with Zed Key, Malachi Smith, Nate Santos, Enoch Cheeks, Posh Alexander, etc. The only similar home game was against Northwestern early, a five-point Flyers win. Marquette enters this road game on a high after burying their arch-rival last weekend, Wisconsin. Kam Jones is not only playing like an All-American, but a possible Naismith Award winner. He had 32 points and six assists in that win over the Badgers and will be the calming presence in a hostile environment today. Marquette also has wins over Purdue, Georgia, and road Maryland at the top of its early resume. A win at Dayton would continue to keep them near the top of the forecasted seed list. Golden Eagles have not been getting to the foul line much in recent games, that could be a separator if it continues in this one today. Dayton has struggled to stop dribble penetration, so we could see a lot of back-and-forth high-octane action in this one.
Xavier at Cincinnati, Saturday, 2 PM ET, ESPN+ The Crosstown Shootout reaches a new height of urgency for Cincinnati. It has been a while since they were in a position like this, with the seemingly stronger roster and home court. But Xavier has continued to excel in this heated rivalry over recent years. Cincinnati's competition level was unmatched for most of the early season. That changed when the Bearcats visited Villanova and didn’t play well. So despite being 7-1, there is arguably no real meat on the bone for Cincy’s resume yet. That is reflected in a 49 Strength Of Resume (SOR) ranking to date. Making this game a little extra important. The Bearcats will have Dayton next, so one of two remaining chances to beef up their non-conference profile. The frontcourt of Aziz Bandaogo, Simas Lukosius, and Dillon Mitchell have posed countless problems for opponents. That’s where Xavier will need to come prepared with answers to have a puncher's chance to keep its Crosstown Shootout winning streak going. The Musketeers rely heavily on the backcourt duo of Dayvion McKnight and Ryan Conwell. The frontcourt production from Zach Freemantle also makes opposing defenses worried. Xavier has simply made too many mistakes lately, with a recent turnover rate of 18.6% on its possessions. Cincinnati hasn’t been a pest either at turning its opponents over, so it could be a chance to clean this up for Xavier. But Cincy has been stellar at guarding shooters and getting rebounds. Xavier’s shot selection will be paramount to keep this game close, and then be in a position to steal the road win late. Xavier’s wins over Wake Forest and South Carolina have not aged as well as they’d prefer, so the resume need is here for them, and it’s the last hurrah in non-conference for the Muskies.
Oklahoma vs. Oklahoma State in Oklahoma City, Saturday, 8 PM ET, ESPNU Bedlam was saved! This game had many twists and turns in the offseason, but alas we’ve made it to an Oklahoma City truce between the schools. The surprise winners of the Battle 4 Atlantis has generated extra intrigue. That’s right the Sooners, who are new to the SEC and did not have the biggest expectations, are thriving early on at 9-0 this season. Jeremiah Fears has been one of several freshmen nationally playing well. Fears had 26 and went perfect from the line in the big win over Arizona. He’s been a double-figure scorer in each OU game and the Sooners are running a ton of offense through him as their most talented playmaker. The Cowboys are intriguing under first-year head coach Steve Lutz. Not a lot of expectations nationally, but Lutz has brought his non-power programs to the last three March Madness tournaments. OSU plays fast and lately, it has clicked well on offense, as they’ve been the 15th most efficient offense over the past handful of weeks. I believe under Lutz they will continue to improve all season. They demonstrated amazing shot selection in the last game, scoring 85 against a typically brutal Seton Hall defense. Time is not on their side however, this will be the last major non-conference test for the Cowboys who do have wins over Miami and Seton Hall, but nothing against an NCAA-level team. That can change with a win today.
ENJOY IT ALL!
~Rocco Miller
