HOSTING DAY
This whirlwind of a Championship Week will come to a screeching halt later this evening as the NCAA plans to share the 16 Host locations a little after 8 PM EST. By that point, nearly all of the pre-NCAA Baseball nationwide will have concluded. Leaving bubble teams with one final sleepless night.
The timing of the host announcement tells me that the voting and final host decisions are likely to be done before any of the Sunday games go final. Which is critical for teams like Southern Miss and UCLA, who are in a good position as of now, but still have games today.
I believe we are down to Arizona, Southern Miss, TCU, or UCLA for the last two spots. Both Georgia Tech and Dallas Baptist played their way out of contention yesterday, presuming the committee factored it all in.
ARIZONA: Imagining a Big 12 without a Host at all feels uncomfortable. Arizona was a modern record breaker in last year’s Host announcement with a 31st-ranked RPI. That same Wildcat team won the Pac-12 regular season and conference tournament, and boasted a strong non-conference. This year’s team may be just as hot, and is actually up to 27th in the RPI. The 2025 Cats also had the upper hand on TCU - the Big 12’s best team by the metrics, including last night’s win for the Big 12 Tournament trophy. The difference is non-conference strength was over 200th in the country, and AZ finished in fourth in the regular season as part of a tight race. Losing a series to Utah late also could be the costly margin, hurting Arizona’s final comps.
TCU: Didn’t do a whole lot wrong this week to give away its host projection, but did leave the door open by narrowly losing to Arizona. In most seasons, the Frogs have a surefire hosting resume with a Top 18 RPI and the 13th-ranked Strength of Schedule.
UCLA: Continues to win at the B1G Tournament (3-0) and is one win away from earning the B1G Tournament Title. The Bruins are up to 11 in the RPI today and shared the regular-season title with Oregon, which remains a Top 8 projected team.
SOUTHERN MISS: Beat NCAA caliber Troy twice this week and has won 18 games in a row! Sets up a must-watch Sun Belt Title game against Coastal Carolina, which is unbelievably their first meeting of the season. Do I need to mention again that USM AD Jeremy McClain is on the committee, too? Plus, the Golden Eagles have a Top 20 Non-Conference strength of schedule to help support a Host bid.
THE DECISION
Post-mulling this over from every angle that I think the committee will value and combining the theoretical influence of Mr. McClain in the presence of his committee peers, I think it goes to UCLA and Southern Miss, which is somewhat shocking to leave the Big 12 off the list of Hosts. UCLA being 11th in RPI and having hardware is tough to top.
The McClain effect, as we’ll call it, made me flip to Southern Miss. If KPI is considered at all by the voting committee, then Southern Miss would be significantly negatively impacted (still stuck at 26th). And TCU would benefit the most, as the Frogs are 13th in KPI, per the Sunday morning update. How much the committee cares about KPI remains a mystery. We just know they have access to it. Arizona is 20th in KPI as well, which helps close the RPI gap, should the Cats’ convo get into the weeds this morning.
CONFERENCE USA, BIG WEST DELIVERING DRAMA
Two of our heavy focus leagues delivered carnage on Saturday, impacting the bubble substantially.
The Jacksonville State Gamecocks stunned Dallas Baptist twice, in advancing to the CUSA Title Game today vs. Western Kentucky. CUSA is now guaranteed two bids to the dance, and WKU has been perfect all week in this event, to further its own at-large case. Conventional wisdom says the league is not getting more than two teams in, but still a big turn of events with DBU sent packing.
Cal Poly knocked off UC Irvine in an impressive 10-run win to set up a winner-take-all Final today in Fullerton. Cal Poly woke up this morning to the pleasant news that they jumped from 37 to 30 in the RPI. Almost impossible to ignore the Mustangs now, right? We’ve adjusted the forecast to include two Big West bids.
Who suffers? I think Virginia and Arizona State are the odd teams out now. But do not be surprised if UConn or Troy are the impacted teams, very close to call. Plus, I am not giving up on the possibility that Chairman Jay Artigues (SE Louisiana AD) helps find a spot for his Lions or UTRGV.
Lastly, a Nebraska win over UCLA today will take another spot away from the forecasted at-large field. As for WKU? A loss to Jacksonville State likely means no tournament bid for the Hilltoppers. Incredible theater is coming on Sunday in these two games.
Fascinating stuff on the bubble. Plenty more of a breakdown coming in the final forecast tomorrow!
SUNDAY FORECAST
This Forecast is based on the 2025 Selection Committee Policies and Principles and is based on a full simulation of the committee’s processes. This is not an opinion, it’s based on what I believe the 2025 Selection Committee will produce on Selection Monday, May 26th, 2025.
LAST TEAMS IN
Oklahoma State
UConn
Cal Poly
Troy
REASON FOR SOME HOPE, BUT PROJECTED OUT
Virginia
Arizona State
SE Louisiana
Texas A&M
UTRGV
Xavier