WHAT A WEEK!
Thanks to all for coming along on another impromptu ride on the College Baseball selection process and appreciating the math behind it. I enjoyed the week personally. A ton of what was cautioned at the week’s beginning came to fruition.
The five pre-week conference tournaments to watch produced four bid steals - a stellar 80% clip. Only Northeastern was able to prevent a bid steal out of the CAA, CUSA, AAC, Big West, and Big Ten quintet. You can argue for Cal Poly and WKU to be in the field without the auto bid, but I did not feel good about either getting in. The Tops and Mustangs earned it the hard way, by winning tournaments this weekend. Nebraska and East Carolina, despite rich traditions, were both undisputed bid thieves in 2025.
Noah Bieniek was gracious enough to have me on the Live reaction show last night, to go over the Host selections and fill out a mutually agreed upon bracket live. This was a healthy experience and helped me sleep on a few final bubble decisions. Here is the full episode:
HOSTS ANNOUNCED
No need to spend a lot of time on the hosts as they were officially confirmed last night by the NCAA. We had all 16 correct yesterday here at Bracketeer. More importantly, the committee process played out to exclude the Big 12 (TCU and Arizona had worthy cases to host), which may have an impact on the final bubble selections.
#1 OVERALL? It’s time to get the order correct. After hearing the case for Vanderbilt to be the top seed overall, I decided to dive deeper. This is a clear strength in a direct strength comparison. Prior to Hoover, Texas was 22-8 in the top conference, and Vandy was 19-11. Vandy, of course, picked up three wins to match Texas at 22 league wins, and matched (if you count it) with a trophy. But Vandy still lost 11 league games, and Texas sits at nine SEC losses with the Hoover results factored in. A deeper breakdown is to see how each team did against SEC host-level opposition. UT went 8-5 and Vandy went 9-8. Vandy has the edge of being the hot team, but they caught a few breaks in the SEC bracket by facing Oklahoma instead of Alabama, Tennessee instead of Texas, and Ole Miss instead of LSU. Not Vandy’s fault, though, and still great opponents. But it does leave the body of work advantage to Texas.
TOP 8 filled in with Coastal Carolina’s double championship yesterday and proof of beating Southern Miss. Baseball gurus will tell you that both teams were low on pitching, but the committee is unlikely to penalize CCU for that level of detail. This was Oregon’s spot at the beginning of the week, but of course, the Ducks left the door open.
OTHER HOST ORDER leads off with surging Ole Miss. The Rebels did enough winning and got big wins against Florida, Arkansas, and LSU to vault into the hosting picture and earn a spot at the top of this list of the next eight hosts. If the Rebels had won the SEC Tournament, they would have been a strong case to be a Top 8 as well. Rebels are followed by Oregon, Clemson, Tennessee, Florida State, and Oregon State. A few factors led to this order. I do not see Oregon falling below Oregon State in any capacity. Oregon’s 9-1 Quad 1 record is the best percentage in the country with 10 results or more and outweighs the bad elements of Oregon’s resume. FSU became the toughest team to slot, as the baseball experts understand how talented the Seminoles are and the importance of having Michael Alford on the committee. His top priority now becomes to avoid a brutal super regional matchup, which is clearly UNC (who went 3-1 vs. FSU). Some shuffling sends Oregon State down to the 14-seed, which may seem unfair to the Beavers. OSU is at the mercy of SEC/ACC comparisons + Oregon (who, of course, beat the Beavs four times). That allows for a slide to 14. Southern Miss and UCLA round us out, as we shared yesterday, in the 15th and 16th slots.
FINAL BUBBLE CHOICES
With Nebraska and East Carolina eating two more at-large spots, the field shrank again last night. That could mean doomsday for a conference like the Big East. Somewhat unfairly, the Big East does not have an employee in the committee room. When you look at Xavier and UConn, you see two worthy squads for selection. Trying to separate the two gets dicey quickly, because it comes back to the old question, “What do you care about most?” Head-to-head, conference standings, quad wins, quad record percentage, or strength of schedule. Some areas give UConn the edge, others (especially SOS) give Xavier the edge. In the end, it’s just very muddy to separate them. A unique thing about the Baseball Selection Committee is that they need 70% (seven of 10 members) to agree in order to put a bubble team into the field. This could get really tough for both of the Big East candidates.
That begins to bring Arizona State and Virginia back into the picture. Big XII not having a single host location could actually help ASU get the final bid, as history tells us. This is due to some theoretical horse-trading; we do know Southern Miss AD Jeremy McClain got his biggest box checked by bringing the regionals back to Hattiesburg. The ACC entered the week hoping to see Notre Dame and Virginia play well enough to take any doubt out of their chances. Well, they both lost to Boston College in upsets. Virginia has the superior conference record, and nuance with the FSU series cancellation.
Troy finished six full games behind Southern Miss for second place and went 0-4 against the Golden Eagles. Trojans were remarkably consistent otherwise, highlighted by a series win against Coastal Carolina and no other series losses on the year. The Trojans did go an underwhelming 3-10 overall in Q1 chances, and just 8-12 in the top two quad chances. Feels horrible, but I had to cut them.
The magic of having Jay Artigues (SELA AD) as the Chairman of the Committee comes to the final day. Can he convince other voters in the room to support a two-bid Southland Conference? The task got harder with the bid theft late. UTRGV and SELA are looking pretty clearly behind UConn, ASU, Xavier, Virginia, and Troy. Holding my breath still!
In the end, I am taking the team that I believe will be able to get 70% approval. This became Arizona State after a long thought process about the hosts, the final candidates, and the final conversation. UConn would be the first team out, but certainly would appreciate a Xavier or Troy inclusion, and would understand Virginia. Should be fascinating!
Oklahoma State, Miami, and Kentucky all had enough reasons to possibly be cut from the list of bubble contenders, but based on the leagues they are coming from, I am not moving them.
THE FINAL FORECAST
The Final Forecast is based on the 2025 Selection Committee Policies and Principles and is based on a full simulation of the committee’s processes. This is not an opinion, it’s based on what I believe the 2025 Selection Committee will produce Today on Selection Monday, May 26th, 2025.
LAST TEAMS IN
Kentucky
Miami
Oklahoma State
Arizona State
LEFT OUT OF THE FIELD - STILL REASON FOR HOPE
UConn
SE Louisiana
Troy
Virginia
Xavier
Texas A&M
UTRGV