Projecting The 64, Volume 2
Welcome to Thursday, everybody. It’s a big moving day today with nearly every top-seed within conference tournament play taking the field. Since Volume 1 on Tuesday, a few impactful results have occurred. Let’s break it down.
Updates to Automatic Bids
SEC - The Top four seeds all lost on Wednesday, which means the highest remaining team in the winner’s bracket is now Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are on the brink of coming up to take one of the 16 host spots should they stay hot deep into the weekend. Currently up to 19 in the RPI, a top 16 finish will likely bring a regional to Starkville.
Sun Belt - Louisiana got beat by Old Dominion in the opener and find themselves in the loser’s bracket right now. Southern Miss is the new projected auto-bid from the league. Both teams remain a projected 2-seed within regionals.
Missouri Valley - One of the key leagues to track as Indiana State is an absolute lock for the NCAAs, but nobody else is even on the bubble. The Sycamores fell in extra innings against SIU yesterday in a marathon. The odds of ISU rallying through the loser’s bracket may be even stiffer thanks to the long game yesterday and going deep into the bullpen. A strong likelihood has emerged for the MVC to become a 2-Bid league. Evansville won and is the host of the tournament here. We went with the Purple Aces for the auto-bid choice because they are already a round deeper than the 2-seed, Murray State. Keep your eye on the Valley.
Big Ten - Top-seed Illinois ran into a recent buzzsaw in Penn State to taste an upset loss to open. For the two-seed Nebraska, it was even worse. To get beat 15-2 against Ohio State is not a great showing. Both the Huskers and Illini remain alive in the loser’s bracket and are part of the projected Field of 64. The projected auto-bid is now Indiana as the highest remaining unbeaten team. We talked about the Hoosiers in Volume 1, a lot of intrigue in Bloomington - especially with their AD on the Selection Committee.
Atlantic-10 - Saint Louis was knocked into the Loser’s Bracket at the hands of Richmond. The Billikens do not own an at-large resume, so this has them entirely out for today. VCU has had a solid year and is the new favorite to win the league. RPI in the 70’s right now with a decent road record. All of that was just enough to get the Rams one of the final three-seeds in Regional forecasting.
Southland - Lamar’s once-storied season has leaked oil down the stretch. That continued in the SLC Tournament opening loss to eighth-seeded UIW. Nicholls also had another strong season and is the new projected auto-bid. Should Nicholls win this tournament, you may see the Colonels as a three-seed in regionals.
SWAC - An interesting regular season format containing two divisions (West and East) who never face each other. So here at the conference tournament, we have teams facing each other for the first time. The West top-seed Texas Southern fell, so we have switched to the East top-seed, Florida A&M, who took care of business yesterday.
ASUN - The league tournament groups the top four seeds for round-robin pool play. I hesitate to change an auto-bid projection based on pool play alone, but in this case, all four teams were tied with 10 league losses. Kennesaw State has emerged thus far with a 2-0 start. Our forecasted champ previously was Austin Peay, who lost the opener. Today, Kennesaw State is the projected auto-bid.
Summit League - The most unpredictable league of them all! Oral Roberts had a rough year for ORU standards and is coming off of their epic run to the College World Series in 2023. Down the stretch, the Golden Eagles have shown more life, and ORU happens to be hosting the conference tournament. Omaha was the original pick, they fell in the opener to Northern Colorado and ORU took care of North Dakota State. Somehow, ORU has made it back into the projected field today after months of misery. Let’s see if they can finish the job this weekend in Tulsa.
Bubble Updates
Costly Losses
James Madison fell to Georgia Southern, dropping the Dukes down to 49th in RPI
Georgia Tech went 0-2 in the ACC Tournament, dropping to 50th in the RPI
Kansas State’s opening-round loss to Kansas hurt from a record standpoint. A nice bounceback win over West Virginia yesterday has the Wildcats at 41 in RPI. Keep in mind that the K-State AD is on the committee. A critical game vs. TCU looms large today.
Virginia Tech needed a monster week. Instead, they go 0-2 and their season is done. There is no chance for the Hokies at this point.
Moving Up
Troy got off to a good start by beating Appalachian State. Despite a 52nd-ranked RPI, the Trojans are 17-10 in road games and crush the rest of the current bubble in that key area. With JMU falling out, finding a home in the forecast for the Trojans was additionally logical.
Vanderbilt went from bubbles to a solid two-seed in two performances at the SEC Tournament. Commodores took it to Tennessee on the big stage yesterday.
FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - THURSDAY, MAY 23rd
Bubble Breakdown
Last Five In
60. Florida
61. California
62. TCU
63. Troy
64. Kansas State
First Five Out
UNC Wilmington
St. John’s
Cincinnati
James Madison
Georgia Tech