Projecting The 64, Volume 3
Chaos is alive and well. It wouldn’t be Championship Week without it. We have made it to Friday and we have key teams who hold the cards for potential bid steals playing in loser brackets or already eliminated in the case of UConn. Ahead of a wild Friday - Let’s break it all down, shall we?
Key Updates - Hosting
American Conference - This is starting to feel like an annual tradition. The ECU Pirates have fallen once again in the AAC Tournament. This leaves Wichita State and Tulane as the remaining unbeaten teams. The AAC now projects as a two-bid league, joining the MVC and Big East. ECU remains alive in the loser’s bracket, where a handful of bubble teams are rooting hard for a Pirates’ rally back to the Title.
SEC - Vanderbilt and LSU have taken this tournament by storm. LSU is solid as a two-seed with no major chance to move to a Host. However, Vandy is up to 17th in RPI today and I have to believe if they seal this tournament with two more wins, they will be a Host on Monday morning. Mississippi State has built a legitimate case as well. The Bulldogs sit at 21st in RPI. They own 19 wins over SEC teams and could get north of 20 league victories in the coming days. They get a crack at Tennessee in a loser-out game today, a win moves the needle (of course).
ACC - Duke cooled off NC State, who was red-hot, in a dominant fashion yesterday. The Blue Devils are up to 19th in the RPI and are in the thick of the hosting conversation. They’ve advanced to Saturday’s semifinals and will be playing this weekend for a chance to play Regionals at home in Durham.
Big West - No conference tournament. UC Santa Barbara is just fighting off UC Riverside and hoping to stay high enough in RPI to remain in hosting position. The Gauchos and others (such as ECU) need the Mississippi State’s, Duke’s, and Oklahoma State’s of the world to take another loss. A loss of any kind by UCSB to UC Riverside likely would mean they miss out on hosting. Just an RPI killer if it happens.
Key Updates - Bubble
Bid Allocations to focus on
Big Ten gets 3
Pac-12 gets 4
Big East gets 2 (clinched now with UConn out)
Sun Belt should get 4
That’s it, everyone else on the Bubble is in a giant pot with very little to no bids left.
What Happened?
Northeastern goes 0-2 in the CAA Tournament. A brutal result for the Huskies. A major credit to them for scheduling 31 road games and going 19-12. That keeps their RPI in a good at-large range at 33 today, but it was too difficult to find a spot for them today. This will be a sweaty 75 hours til Selection Monday.
Xavier wins a classic game over UConn, then loses a classic game to St. John’s on the same day. I am struggling to find room for three Big East teams. Xavier is at 38 in the RPI and played the second-hardest schedule in the country. Barely out for today, but the Muskies are still playing baseball - which provides its resume a chance to improve.
James Madison rallied from six down to stun Louisiana. Cajuns are done in two games of the Sun Belt tournament after running away with the regular-season championship. I am keeping Coastal Carolina in the field despite going just 1-2 this week. The KPI is strong for CCU at 19th and the committee influence here cannot be ignored. JMU and Troy are in the thick of a battle for a potential fourth bid for the conference. Georgia Southern is unbeaten this week and could steal the bid. High drama in this tournament.
Kansas State is out after a 1-2 Big XII Tourney showing. They find themselves 47th in the RPI, and 43rd in the KPI. I am keeping them on the board with their AD on the committee. Also damaging to the Wildcats, is fellow bubble teams like UCF and TCU continuing to win. Both the Knights and Frogs are climbing into a safe landing spot. Cincinnati had a great conference year, but the RPI fell to 63 after the loss to Texas Tech. That will do it for the Bearcats in 2024.
The Pac-12 produced two of four potential bid stealers into the Semifinals. USC and Stanford are right in the mix to take the bid. Cal (Bubble In) is also alive and looking to take it themselves. This helps me justify Cal projected in this week. I believe they would be out if USC or Stanford takes the auto-bid. One way or another, I believe the PAC lands with four teams in.
Indiana State (won on Thursday) and ECU are still fighting for a chance to host. They may both be in the loser’s bracket but they have plenty of motivation to storm back and with their tournaments. Right now both leagues are projected as two-bid leagues. Should either rally back to win it, a spot opens for a bubble team.
As crazy as things are, two more bids could vanish from the Bubble picture. In the WCC, San Diego is still undefeated, but Portland is surging too. Pilots can take that bid potentially. And in the CAA, UNCW is barely out and can win this bid to help the league get two bids. Critical game vs. Charleston today and we may see them meet more times in the Championship, which would only help each of their respective RPI rankings.
FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - FRIDAY, MAY 24th
Bubble Breakdown
Last Five In
60. Alabama
61. California
62. TCU
63. Florida
64. James Madison
First Five Out
Northeastern
Troy
Kansas State
UNC Wilmington
Georgia Tech