Projecting The 64, Volume 4
Welcome to Championship Saturday. After a few long days of shuffling and surprises, we’ve arrived at D-Day in several conferences. Only 12 tournaments are scheduled to carry over into Sunday, meaning as many as 15 automatic bids will be awarded today. Unfortunately, many great runs and seasons will come to a close. Hot teams at the right time will continue playing baseball into Regional Weekend one week from now.
A full summary of the auto-bids is coming to you tomorrow. For now, let’s summarize what was learned on Friday.
Key Updates - Host Picture
Mississippi State had a golden opportunity to jump into a hosting position against Tennessee, yet fell short late. The result puts the Bulldogs at 25th in RPI and history is not on their side for hosting, despite a great year.
Duke is a team that is tough to ignore. The Blue Devils have had a solid resume all year long. Duke has finally cracked the Top 20 of RPI after a 2-0 start in Charlotte. They will play Miami in the Semifinals in a must-win to host a Regional contest. For today, I am giving the Blue Devils the final host spot, this will likely change again in 24 hours.
Oregon State is sitting in the Sweet 16 spot, the 16th in the RPI that is. The Beavers are done playing this week and need to root for Miami and FSU today in Charlotte, ECU falling again would be another potential path. OSU is still in the thick of the hosting discussion, just the odd team out for this moment.
Wake Forest had a key win over North Carolina late on Friday to advance to the semifinals of the ACC Tournament today vs. Florida State. Wake is on the brink of superseding teams with a win today and will be a projected host tomorrow should it occur.
If Vandy runs through the rest of the SEC Tournament, they will certainly have a worthy RPI ranking (currently at 18) to be a host. After going 13-17 in SEC play during the year, this still makes that decision difficult. We will see how it shakes out with the surging Commodores.
Key Updates - Bubble
TCU’s loss to Kansas not only ended the conference tournament run for the Horned Frogs but also left TCU wondering what Selection Monday might be like. The Big 12 is packed with bubble hopefuls. TCU is at 40 today in the RPI but had a losing conference record, a losing record in Quad 1, and a losing record in Quad 2. It’s difficult to give TCU the nod in comparison with Northeastern and others. Frogs and Huskies are both on pins and needles for the next 48 hours.
The Pac-12 continues to hold interesting cards in the bracket math. Sticking to my guns that the league will find a way to put four teams in. Arizona, Oregon State, and Oregon are going to regionals. It comes down to if USC can secure the auto-bid with an upset over Arizona in the title today. Otherwise, I think the committee will find a way to get California into the NCAAs as one of the last bubble teams in.
The Big Ten is also in the spotlight. Penn State is on fire, but not a bubble team. PSU and Indiana are the final two unbeaten teams in this tournament. IU has a good resume for a northern team, and I like their chances as of now. However, if Penn State takes this bid, one has to wonder if it comes at IU’s expense. Keep in mind IU’s AD is on the committee (and so is the Kansas State AD, fellow bubble team).
Charleston and UNCW meet today in a critical matchup. UNCW is right on the edge of the bubble, and the team that doesn’t win this tournament will be sweating on Selection Monday. Due to weather delays, this is the winner’s bracket final. Delaware is still alive in the loser’s bracket to face the loser later this evening.
James Madison continues to win important games, but they are nowhere near out of the woods yet. Today, the Dukes need to beat a very good Georgia Southern team twice to advance to Sunday’s Title game. If they fail, their 38th-ranked RPI will inevitably drop and a bid could be stolen tomorrow by the Eagles. Complicating Sun Belt matters even further is Appalachian State, which is still alive in the other semifinal. It feels like a four-bid league one way or another. If so, GSU and App State can spoil the day for JMU. I don’t want to fully write off Troy either, but the RPI (57 now) is in real rough shape.
Tournament Nuggets
The WAC has reached peak chaos. Tarleton is ineligible (transitional year) to advance to the NCAAs. Yet, the Texans are one win away from winning the WAC Tournament. The WAC rule is that the regular-season champion would advance to the NCAAs if a non-eligible team wins its tournament. Grand Canyon is that team. Even though the Lopes were bounced early from this tournament, they are just one Texans win away from getting to the NCAAs regardless. They are back in the bracket today due to this loophole. To spice things up even further, this is the first season where California Baptist is eligible to compete in the NCAAs. The Lancers have rallied through the loser’s bracket and will face Tarleton in today’s championship game with the need to beat the Texans twice. A wild story is coming from the WAC in either result.
Tulane and Evansville are still represented below as Auto Bids in the forecast. If ECU and/or Indiana State rally back to take the auto-bid(s) that will open up room for a team like TCU or UNCW to get back into the field. AAC and MVC remain must-watch. Also, the WCC could still have a bid steal - San Diego has been perfect, however.
High Point is on the brink of history. The Panthers began competing in Division I in 2000 and joined the Big South Conference the same season. They have never advanced to the NCAAs. This is just their second Big South Title Game appearance ever. USC Upstate needs to beat High Point twice today to spoil the party. High Point is hosting the event.
Northern Kentucky joined Division 1 in 2012 and has had some really rough years. Something special is brewing in 2024. The Norse have been at the top or near the top of the Horizon all year long. They are one win away from the ultimate dream. Youngstown State, the 6-seed, rallied to make the Title matchup vs. NKU. The Penguins would need to win twice today to take away the moment from the Norse.
FIELD OF 64 PROJECTION - SATURDAY MAY 25th
Bubble Breakdown
Last Five In
60. Alabama
61. James Madison
62. Florida
63. California
64. Northeastern
First Five Out
TCU
UNC Wilmington
Kansas State
Georgia Tech
Troy