NOTES SINCE BUBBLE CHAOS WEEKEND
Michigan State missed a last ditch, home run opportunity at Michigan. The Spartans remain settled in at the final 2-seed spot.
Despite Purdue falling once again, they still have one fewer loss than Kansas and they did not lose to a team as far off the board as KU did at home (Cincy). That combined with the H2H Boilermaker win at Alabama, keeps Purdue holding firm as the final 3-seed.
Alabama has credentials to move higher, however we already know that the committee had them 17th and they have the aforementioned home loss to Purdue, keeping the Crimson Tide as a 4-seed in all likelihood.
Texas Tech is a team in limbo, falling to TCU at home and at BYU last week. The Red Raiders, however, were also remarkable with this same team when they went to Ames and won. Until further notice, TTU stays a protected seed.
Tennessee took a clear drop for taking a home loss and subsequent “Road Win Exchange Program Enrollment” with Vanderbilt. Pretty reasonable to move the Vols to the 6-seed area. Wisconsin’s third big road win (at Purdue) has the Badgers in a dead heat with UNC for the final spot on the 5-seed line. UNC’s win over Duke is still going to likely wow the committee to some degree, and winning at Virginia has aged tremendously well for the Heels.
The Bubble is likely why you are here today. The Notorious Nine- Virginia Tech, Cal, SMU, Cincinnati, Indiana, Auburn, Oklahoma State, New Mexico, and USC all lost this weekend. While VCU won on Friday at Dayton and Santa Clara has won twice since then to likely wrap up a bid for good. Broncos can earn an Automatic Bid tonight with a win over Gonzaga. Following the ruckus, Stanford’s Tree grew on me all day Sunday. If throw the V-Tech win as a “NCAAT-level” win, the Cardinal have six wins against the board. A sneaky four-game win streak to end the regular season was capped with a win at N.C. State, giving Stanford a substantial boost. They are in as a placeholder last team in now. Amazing.
Forecasting a 2-Bid Mountain West for probability purposes. As a quick example, there is a 69% chance of a bid steal:
Courtesy Ken Pomeroy
Several new Auto Bids are in the forecast: Queens, Furman, Northern Iowa as clinched teams. Hofstra and Lehigh as highest remaining seeds. The chaos continues daily!
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BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2025-26 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 - Mountain West (San Diego State): The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: SMU, Virginia Tech, California, Indiana
NEXT TEAMS OUT: New Mexico, Auburn, USC, Cincinnati
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