Bracketology

Bracketology 02.12.24

ANNOUNCEMENTS

Two episodes of Fielding The 68 are coming your way this week to break down all things Bracketology. Production prep took away time from the usual Monday write-up, so we will get back on schedule next week. Also, the Selection Committee will reveal the Top 16 teams, with the first four seed lines by region this coming Saturday at 1pm ET on CBS.

For me, it is time to get down to the Sunshine State for a busy week beginning tomorrow night with the Florida Gators hosting LSU. It will be packed with excitement. Here is what to expect this week from my end:

  • Monday: Fielding The 68. Live: YouTube begins at 5:30PM ET. Available for rewatch after and in Podcast (Spotify/Apple/etc.) mode.

  • Tuesday: Game Coverage: LSU at Florida, follow @RoccoMiller8 on X/Twitter

  • Wednesday: Under The Radar Show on @HoopsHD recording. Covering the “Other 22 Conferences”

  • Thursday: Game Coverage: Temple at Florida Atlantic, follow @RoccoMiller8 on X/Twitter

  • Friday: Fielding The 68. Live: YouTube begins at 5:30PM ET. Available for rewatch after and in Podcast (Spotify/Apple/etc.) mode.

  • Friday: Initial meeting with Mock Selection Committee. More information to come this week!

  • Saturday: Selection Committee reveals the Top 16 teams by region on CBS at 1 PM ET.

  • Saturday: Game Coverage: Duke at Florida State, follow @RoccoMiller8 on X/Twitter

  • Sunday: Game Coverage: Florida Atlantic at South Florida, follow @RoccoMiller8 on X/Twitter

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top-seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: New Mexico, Memphis, Wake Forest, Cincinnati

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Princeton, James Madison, Drake, Seton Hall

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.09.24 - A Focus on a Few Bubble Hopefuls

MID-WEEK SUMMARY

Happy Friday everyone. What an adventurous week it was. I had the opportunity to spend the week in Utah. On Tuesday, Nevada came into Logan and arguably played its best game of the year by defeating Utah State handily. The result dramatically improves Nevada’s tournament chances and they have another showdown later tonight vs. San Diego State. Should the Pack win tonight, I feel confident they will make it into Monday’s projected field.

Last night, I was at the Triple OT thriller between Arizona and Utah. The Cats took over finally in the third overtime to secure another quality true road win (to go along with the win at Duke). A substantial upgrade on an already great resume for the Wildcats. Combine that with North Carolina’s home loss to Clemson earlier this week, and you’ll see Arizona has taken over as the top seed in the West. It’s the first shake-up of 1-seeds since we started the mid-season updates about four weeks ago.

Florida Atlantic fell late against UAB on Thursday, which puts the surging South Florida Bulls as the AAC leaders. South Florida had an incredible rally to upend Charlotte on Tuesday. Video below of a key late steal by the Bulls that contributed to the comeback. What it means is the forecast once again has a projected bid steal from the AAC. The same is true in the Atlantic-10, where Richmond continues to lead the charge. With two projected bids eliminated, that cost Michigan State and Nevada a spot in the field.

BUBBLE BREAKDOWN - THE BIG EAST

I took the time to do a full breakdown earlier this week for several bubble hopefuls. Today, let’s zero in on the Big East. The Big East has as many as six bubble teams today. The genesis of the equation and remaining schedules is that if the league is fortunate, perhaps three within this mix will punch tickets.

ORDER OF BIG EAST TODAY:

Butler (First Four)
Seton Hall (First Four)
St. John's (3rd Team Out)
Providence (7th Team Out)
Villanova (OUT)
Xavier (OUT)

Let’s take a look at these teams in order.

Butler & Seton Hall

Similar characteristics, although different, have the Bulldogs and Pirates in the projected field. They also possess similar risks of dropping out of the projected field. Did a combined summary for these two because there was a decent amount of overlap.

PROS: Heavyweight wins. Butler has Road Marquette and Road Creighton. Seton Hall has UConn, and Marquette home wins, the wins at Butler and Providence. The top-end wins are in place, now it’s just about proving consistent winning.

CONS: The Hall is just 7-8 in meaningful games and currently is the only projected team in the field with a losing record. Butler is a suspect 6-8 in the top 2 Quads and 8-8 in meaningfuls. Both have to keep winning at a decent to high clip or these areas take them out of balance and to an NIT destiny.

Remaining Schedule- BUTLER: Hinkle will host 5 important ones beginning Saturday, Prov/Marq/Creighton/St. John's/Xavier. Road slate is down to Hall/Villanova/DePaul.

SETON HALL: All 4 remaining roadies are tough - Nova on Sunday, then SJU/UConn/Creighton. Host Xavier/Butler/Villanova/DePaul.

St. John’s

PROS: Right in the mix for selection, the first team out today if there are no bid steals (currently two are forecasted). A disproportionate amount of wins vs. opportunities. 2-6 vs. NCAAT teams. A front-loaded league schedule should provide the Johnnies with the needed chances to even up some key inner team sheet records.

CONS: These records: 2-7 Q1, 7-8 vs. Top 2. A ninth loss in Q3. A Loss to Michigan at home and the BC loss in Brooklyn begins to take any zest that one can get away from the tourney-level wins at Seton Hall and Home Butler. The Villanova sweep unfortunately lost most of its sting for now.

Remaining Schedule: At Marquette is the biggest chance left for a splash, and it’s on Saturday. Also, road chances at Butler and Providence will be significant to play H2H vs. Bubble rivals. Also hosting Creighton can make a splash and another Bubble showdown with hosting Seton Hall is ahead.

Providence

CONS: The 6-8 record in meaningful competition is a killer. Hard to take a team in that situation, full stop. 1-5 in road games vs. Top 2 Quads. 3-6 overall Away/Neutral.

PROS: The Bryce Hopkins injury case concerns can mostly be dismissed after the Friars earned the Creighton win. Friars should get a fair evaluation going forward. PC has a 5-5 record vs. NCAAT-level teams. Four of those came at home, one at Seton Hall. Would be highly preferred to get another one or two on the road.

Remaining Schedule: At Butler, this Saturday is as bubblicious as it gets. Road tests at Marquette and Xavier will be challenging. Gotta win at Georgetown just to at least help the road records. The UConn home game to end the year would be a needle-mover and hosting SJU/Villanova is important.

Villanova

Owning 11 losses with eight games to go plus a conference tournament is a big obstacle. If the Wildcats finish 5-3, they are still in trouble. Go 6-2? Then we can really talk about a bid. Two Seton Hall games, two against Georgetown. Host Butler and Creighton. At UConn and at Providence. So there is a path for Villanova to get there, just tough to envision due to recent play and there is no room for mistakes.

Xavier

A poor road record, just 1-5 against high-quality opponents is a gap for the Musketeers. The home losses to Oakland and Delaware only compound the resume challenges. Xavier is 9-10 in meaningful games, which is just not going to cut it given this rate of losing. That information is what makes it clear they are out today. X would need to collect multiple road wins and a cluster of overall wins to get into the serious consideration category. Host Creighton Sat. Also host Prov/Marq/DePaul. All important road games are on the docket with at Seton Hall/Marq/G'Town/Butler. Even a road Georgetown win helps some due to the poor road record that presently is an issue.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top-seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi State, Nevada, St. John's, Memphis

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Oregon, Wake Forest, Providence, Princeton

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

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Bracketology 02.05.24

TOP SEEDS

A weekend full of opportunities came, saw, and conquered the national landscape. It was a hyped-up all-around weekend with several takeaways. In arguably Saturday’s two biggest games, the home teams controlled for most of the way. Kansas never took its foot off the gas against Houston, to earn another big home win for the millionth time it seems, and North Carolina had a mostly comfortable win over Duke. Purdue was able to outlast Wisconsin in Madison to deepen its already bright and shiny resume. Auburn’s road win at Ole Miss solidified the Tigers finally with at least one Quad 1 victory. UConn took over at MSG in a rowdy environment to also earn a road win over St. John’s. What did it all mean? Let’s break it down.

The one-seed line remains unchanged. As mentioned, the Boilermakers further entrenched themselves as the top overall seed by winning a headline road game at Wisconsin. UConn’s road win at St. John’s may not have been as strong as Purdue’s, but it continues to paint a really strong picture for the Huskies. In the case of Houston and North Carolina, the gap shrunk. Houston still has a slightly stronger resume than UNC thanks to road wins at BYU and TCU and six overall wins against the projected field. The Heels have the road win at Clemson and four overall wins against the field. UH remains the top team in all relevant performance metrics as well (BPI, KenPom, NET) to help solidify its place at third overall.

The Kansas Jayhawks were able to surpass Wisconsin as a 2-seed today. The Badgers still have a strong resume. The reality is taking six losses at this stage of the season and middling records in key road games and overall games away from Madison, make it fairly clear they are behind pace of the 2-seeds (Arizona/Tennessee/Marquette/Kansas) for now.

South Carolina continues to be impossible to ignore. The naysayers may argue that the performance metrics are still in the Mid-40 rankings range, but my friends, sometimes the proof is already in the pudding. Another road win at Georgia on Saturday gave South Carolina a ridiculous 8-2 Away/Neutral record, which is second best in all of Power Six basketball. The toughest final decision was between Duke and Iowa State as the final 4-seed in the overall Top 16. Duke has the edge in winning pct. vs. quality opponents and overall high-end quantity of wins, while the Cyclones own a better road win (TCU) and three elite-level wins compared to Duke’s two. The real difference came within the road damage. Duke is at 6-3 in Away/Neutral battles compared to ISU’s 3-5 record.

MIDDLE SEEDS

Iowa State and Creighton are a tier above the rest as you begin looking at the 5-seeds today. San Diego State rejoins the party after its quality win over Utah State and Florida Atlantic takes a jump up after several consistent wins and the Owls benefited from a cluster of teams all losing this weekend.

Saint Mary’s (7-seed) continues to climb after its road win at Gonzaga. The Gaels remain the only perfect team in true road games in the nation. The Big 12 continues to beat up on each other with advantageous methods. The latest example was Texas winning at TCU. The Horns have shaky records still, but they made it impossible to ignore the road wins now at TCU, Oklahoma, and Cincinnati. TCU themselves is just 4-6 against the top two quadrants, but have the Baylor road win looking nice and shiny. Oklahoma also has shaky quad records, but a win at Cincinnati combined with no bad losses, keeps the Sooners breathing. Its a cornucopia of winning on the road that is keeping all of these teams off the bubble today and standing out enough to be 7-seeds.

Mountain West squads ended up invading the 8-seed line with Clemson sandwiched in between them. Boise State has the elite road win at New Mexico and beat St. Mary’s on a neutral court, but the performance metrics still don’t love them (50 AVG). Those same metrics love New Mexico, but the Lobos still haven’t secured a marquee road win, and remain stuck. And finally Colorado State, is dealing with the worst loss in the group (At Wyoming) and has no road wins against the top two quadrants.

BUBBLE

The Butler Bulldogs got the party started early for the weekend Bubble Watch. The Bulldogs and Creighton got into an offensive slugfest all night in Omaha, with the Bulldogs capturing its second vital road win of the year. That win paired with the earlier win from Marquette makes the Butler resume different than the rest. Two very high-quality road wins as it stands now. The Bulldogs shot up the board to a 9-seed after not being in the field a week ago. Butler will need to continue winning at a high level, however. The Big East is crowded with Bubble teams in Seton Hall (last team in today), St. John’s (second team out today), Villanova (fifth team out), and Providence (ninth team out). Seems like big-time chaos, for now, we will see how it shakes up as these teams continue to play each other.

A key factor in this forecast is that two bid steals are projected. If you believe none will occur in March, that would mean tickets punched for Mississippi State and St. John’s. I believe the Bulldogs and Red Storm are in a position to be selected, but after the ever-changing profiles of Washington State and Cincinnati, we ran out of room. The Bulldogs are just 5-7 against the top two quadrants. No true road wins still, and the Q4 loss to Southern U. really began to create a case for exclusion. In the case of the Red Storm, their sweep of Villanova lost a bit of luster in the past week. SJU fans need to be rooting like crazy for Villanova the rest of the way. As it stands, SJU is just 2-5 against forecasted tourney teams and just 9-9 in meaningful games. Like any of these examples, they are one key win and/or some help from quickly being back on the right side of the bubble.

We welcome Washington State and Cincinnati thanks to some recent great play. WSU picked up an OT win on the road at rival, Washington on Saturday. That is now three road wins over teams within the top two Quadrants, which begins to stand out against other bubble hopefuls. WSU is firmly above water in every record breakdown and it gave the Cougars enough juice to finally overcome its poor 305th-ranked NCSOS. The Bearcats got a key road win in Lubbock, a difficult place to win. That paired with the road win at BYU makes the top of the resume pop for Cincy. However, they are average (7-7) in meaningful games (Top 3 Quads) and just 4-6 in the top two quads. The 297th-ranked NCSOS sure doesn’t help either. In the end, Cincy going to the First Four in Dayton worked itself out.

PROJECTED AUTOMATIC BIDS

Louisiana Tech finally broke out of its tie with Sam Houston, and we are excited to welcome the Bulldogs to the forecast. They play a physical, defensive brand of basketball and are just a few close losses away from being in the at-large chatter. The bracketing process led the Bulldogs to a matchup with South Carolina, which would be fascinating because both teams have similar reputations, making life impossible at teams for opposing shooters.

McNeese fell at SE Louisiana to answer the question if anyone would beat them in league play. It will be difficult and probably unlikely now for the Cowboys to realistically have any at-large scenarios in March. They will need to handle its Southland Tournament business. I still like their chances, considering McNeese is hosting it.

Quick shout out to High Point! Panthers will be tested this coming week with showdowns at UNC Asheville and at Gardner-Webb. For today, the Panthers are projected to play in Memphis against the Baylor Bears.

BRACKET

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big Ten - Purdue (First Place alone)
Big 12 - Baylor (Head-To-Head Tiebreakers favor the Bears)
CAA - Drexel (First Place alone)
Conference USA - Louisiana Tech (First Place alone)

New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
Butler (9-Seed)
Virginia (10-seed)
Washington State (11-Seed)
Cincinnati (First Four)

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top-seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (Charlotte), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi State, St. John's, Memphis, Oregon

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Villanova, Princeton, Colorado, James Madison

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 02.02.24

ANNOUNCEMENT

Due to time constraints and appearing on Today’s Fielding The 68 Show, Live at 5:30 PM ET, I am inviting all of you to watch today’s episode for all of my collective thoughts on teams and their respective placement in the bracket. Live questions will be answered on the YouTube feed, podcast version will be available by tomorrow morning.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 3: AAC (Charlotte), A-10 (Richmond), IVY (Yale). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Virginia, Washington State, Butler, Gonzaga

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Memphis, Providence, James Madison, Colorado

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.29.2024

ANNOUNCEMENT

Due to time constraints and appearing on Today’s Fielding The 68 Show, Live at 5:30 PM ET, I am directing all of you to watch today’s episode for all of my collective thoughts on teams and their respective placement in the bracket.

SUMMARY

NEW Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Atlantic 10 - Richmond Spiders
Mountain West - Utah State Aggies
Ohio Valley - Morehead State Eagles
PAC-12 - Arizona Wildcats
SWAC - Alabama State Hornets

NEW At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
TCU (7-Seed)
Mississippi State (9-Seed)
Florida (First Four)
Virginia (First Four)

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 3: AAC (Charlotte), A-10 (Richmond), IVY (Yale). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Washington State, Nebraska, Providence, Butler

NEXT TEAMS OUT: James Madison, Colorado, Michigan State, Oregon

FOLLOW ME ON X/TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

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