TOP SEEDS
A weekend full of opportunities came, saw, and conquered the national landscape. It was a hyped-up all-around weekend with several takeaways. In arguably Saturday’s two biggest games, the home teams controlled for most of the way. Kansas never took its foot off the gas against Houston, to earn another big home win for the millionth time it seems, and North Carolina had a mostly comfortable win over Duke. Purdue was able to outlast Wisconsin in Madison to deepen its already bright and shiny resume. Auburn’s road win at Ole Miss solidified the Tigers finally with at least one Quad 1 victory. UConn took over at MSG in a rowdy environment to also earn a road win over St. John’s. What did it all mean? Let’s break it down.
The one-seed line remains unchanged. As mentioned, the Boilermakers further entrenched themselves as the top overall seed by winning a headline road game at Wisconsin. UConn’s road win at St. John’s may not have been as strong as Purdue’s, but it continues to paint a really strong picture for the Huskies. In the case of Houston and North Carolina, the gap shrunk. Houston still has a slightly stronger resume than UNC thanks to road wins at BYU and TCU and six overall wins against the projected field. The Heels have the road win at Clemson and four overall wins against the field. UH remains the top team in all relevant performance metrics as well (BPI, KenPom, NET) to help solidify its place at third overall.
The Kansas Jayhawks were able to surpass Wisconsin as a 2-seed today. The Badgers still have a strong resume. The reality is taking six losses at this stage of the season and middling records in key road games and overall games away from Madison, make it fairly clear they are behind pace of the 2-seeds (Arizona/Tennessee/Marquette/Kansas) for now.
South Carolina continues to be impossible to ignore. The naysayers may argue that the performance metrics are still in the Mid-40 rankings range, but my friends, sometimes the proof is already in the pudding. Another road win at Georgia on Saturday gave South Carolina a ridiculous 8-2 Away/Neutral record, which is second best in all of Power Six basketball. The toughest final decision was between Duke and Iowa State as the final 4-seed in the overall Top 16. Duke has the edge in winning pct. vs. quality opponents and overall high-end quantity of wins, while the Cyclones own a better road win (TCU) and three elite-level wins compared to Duke’s two. The real difference came within the road damage. Duke is at 6-3 in Away/Neutral battles compared to ISU’s 3-5 record.
MIDDLE SEEDS
Iowa State and Creighton are a tier above the rest as you begin looking at the 5-seeds today. San Diego State rejoins the party after its quality win over Utah State and Florida Atlantic takes a jump up after several consistent wins and the Owls benefited from a cluster of teams all losing this weekend.
Saint Mary’s (7-seed) continues to climb after its road win at Gonzaga. The Gaels remain the only perfect team in true road games in the nation. The Big 12 continues to beat up on each other with advantageous methods. The latest example was Texas winning at TCU. The Horns have shaky records still, but they made it impossible to ignore the road wins now at TCU, Oklahoma, and Cincinnati. TCU themselves is just 4-6 against the top two quadrants, but have the Baylor road win looking nice and shiny. Oklahoma also has shaky quad records, but a win at Cincinnati combined with no bad losses, keeps the Sooners breathing. Its a cornucopia of winning on the road that is keeping all of these teams off the bubble today and standing out enough to be 7-seeds.
Mountain West squads ended up invading the 8-seed line with Clemson sandwiched in between them. Boise State has the elite road win at New Mexico and beat St. Mary’s on a neutral court, but the performance metrics still don’t love them (50 AVG). Those same metrics love New Mexico, but the Lobos still haven’t secured a marquee road win, and remain stuck. And finally Colorado State, is dealing with the worst loss in the group (At Wyoming) and has no road wins against the top two quadrants.
BUBBLE
The Butler Bulldogs got the party started early for the weekend Bubble Watch. The Bulldogs and Creighton got into an offensive slugfest all night in Omaha, with the Bulldogs capturing its second vital road win of the year. That win paired with the earlier win from Marquette makes the Butler resume different than the rest. Two very high-quality road wins as it stands now. The Bulldogs shot up the board to a 9-seed after not being in the field a week ago. Butler will need to continue winning at a high level, however. The Big East is crowded with Bubble teams in Seton Hall (last team in today), St. John’s (second team out today), Villanova (fifth team out), and Providence (ninth team out). Seems like big-time chaos, for now, we will see how it shakes up as these teams continue to play each other.
A key factor in this forecast is that two bid steals are projected. If you believe none will occur in March, that would mean tickets punched for Mississippi State and St. John’s. I believe the Bulldogs and Red Storm are in a position to be selected, but after the ever-changing profiles of Washington State and Cincinnati, we ran out of room. The Bulldogs are just 5-7 against the top two quadrants. No true road wins still, and the Q4 loss to Southern U. really began to create a case for exclusion. In the case of the Red Storm, their sweep of Villanova lost a bit of luster in the past week. SJU fans need to be rooting like crazy for Villanova the rest of the way. As it stands, SJU is just 2-5 against forecasted tourney teams and just 9-9 in meaningful games. Like any of these examples, they are one key win and/or some help from quickly being back on the right side of the bubble.
We welcome Washington State and Cincinnati thanks to some recent great play. WSU picked up an OT win on the road at rival, Washington on Saturday. That is now three road wins over teams within the top two Quadrants, which begins to stand out against other bubble hopefuls. WSU is firmly above water in every record breakdown and it gave the Cougars enough juice to finally overcome its poor 305th-ranked NCSOS. The Bearcats got a key road win in Lubbock, a difficult place to win. That paired with the road win at BYU makes the top of the resume pop for Cincy. However, they are average (7-7) in meaningful games (Top 3 Quads) and just 4-6 in the top two quads. The 297th-ranked NCSOS sure doesn’t help either. In the end, Cincy going to the First Four in Dayton worked itself out.
PROJECTED AUTOMATIC BIDS
Louisiana Tech finally broke out of its tie with Sam Houston, and we are excited to welcome the Bulldogs to the forecast. They play a physical, defensive brand of basketball and are just a few close losses away from being in the at-large chatter. The bracketing process led the Bulldogs to a matchup with South Carolina, which would be fascinating because both teams have similar reputations, making life impossible at teams for opposing shooters.
McNeese fell at SE Louisiana to answer the question if anyone would beat them in league play. It will be difficult and probably unlikely now for the Cowboys to realistically have any at-large scenarios in March. They will need to handle its Southland Tournament business. I still like their chances, considering McNeese is hosting it.
Quick shout out to High Point! Panthers will be tested this coming week with showdowns at UNC Asheville and at Gardner-Webb. For today, the Panthers are projected to play in Memphis against the Baylor Bears.
BRACKET
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big Ten - Purdue (First Place alone)
Big 12 - Baylor (Head-To-Head Tiebreakers favor the Bears)
CAA - Drexel (First Place alone)
Conference USA - Louisiana Tech (First Place alone)
New At-Large teams today are represented below in the Field of 68:
Butler (9-Seed)
Virginia (10-seed)
Washington State (11-Seed)
Cincinnati (First Four)
Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top-seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (Charlotte), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: Mississippi State, St. John's, Memphis, Oregon
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Villanova, Princeton, Colorado, James Madison
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