BRACKET REVEAL RECAP
The first indicators are now public for all to see when it comes to the 23-24 NCAA selection committee. In the annual spirit, guessing this with 100% perfection once again proved to be a challenge. At Bracketeer, 15 of the 16 were identified accurately and 13 of the 16 were seeded correctly. Here is what the committee revealed:
SURPRISES
San Diego State was the team I missed on. The Aztecs certainly challenged themselves in non-conference play. SDSU is the first reigning national finalist to turn around the following year and take on four true road games in non-conference action that I can remeber in any recent season. They came away from that schedule with high-end NET wins over Saint Mary’s in Las Vegas, and a true road win at the near-impossible Kennel over Gonzaga. With the Gaels trending up (current winners of 12 straight) yet not quite in the protected seed discussion and Gonzaga still near the bubble, I did not believe the Committee would have them as a 4-seed (and especially 14th overall). The indication is that this group of commissioners and AD’s were impressed by a Top 15 schedule, 7-6 record away from home, and no losses outside of Q1.
Depending on how you prefer to interpret these clues, this could be great news for the Mountain West as a whole, Gonzaga’s bubble hopes, Grand Canyon’s bubble hopes (if an at-large is needed), Florida’s seed (if they remain perfect outside of Q1), and any team who scheduled hard (like a Utah, who is on the bubble). Or simply all of the above.
North Carolina was deemed the highest-rated two-seed by the committee. Which to me was a clue that the committee really respected the high-end road winning- UNC is currently 6-1 in true road games within the top two quadrants, highlighted by a win at Clemson. Nine total wins away from the Dean Dome as well, includes a win over Oklahoma in Charlotte. The sheer quantity and win pct. of this resume stands out but UNC did not have the elite high-end wins yet. Interesting part was this won out over teams with high-end wins like Tennessee, Marquette, and Kansas. The NCAAT coordinator and magnificent communicator is David Worlock. He publicly confirmed to me that the committee did not gather until after Wednesday (2/14) of last week, which meant the UNC loss to Syracuse was accounted for.
Always terrific to get validation like this. The priority, goal, and mission of Bracketeer is to provide education, insight, and accuracy into what I believe the committee values the most in this process and on building a real-time bracket on a regular basis that is done step-by-step the same way as the committee.
Lastly, Alabama appeared as the ninth overall seed and Auburn 13th. Another case where road wins seemed to matter more and much like SDSU, the Tide also do not have a bad loss to point at. So a pretty good set of clues were delivered with them being the highest of the three-seeds. Auburn (prior to home Kentucky loss), had its best road win come at bubble-ish Ole Miss. Tigers fell to the highest 4-seed as of Saturday AM.
tOP SEEDS
We covered a lot of the learnings, now let’s talk about some actual games that impacted today’s bracket.
The Ohio State upset over Purdue left the Boilermakers sitting with three losses this year, which is lower than two. Purdue still has more (7) high quality wins than UConn (5) and has better marks in a handful of key areas. Purdue really has a good case to remain as the top overall seed, but in this case- we have two teams who win every game almost. If UConn wins out (play at Creighton tonight, later at Marquette), then the Huskies have the path to leave no doubt as the top overall team. We are going to wait for someone to prove that UConn is beatable (perhaps tonight?) until moving them down. So UConn is the choice today for top overall team in the Bracket.
The Kansas win at Oklahoma combined with Marquette’s blowout loss at UConn was enough to slot KU higher in the 2-seed pecking order.
No changes to the three-seed line.
The Auburn home loss to Kentucky, dropped the Tigers from 13th overall to 15th. Still a fairly safe 4-seed in the Field. The Wisconsin loss over the weekend was its ninth overall loss and it came to non-NCAA bound Iowa, which hurts a little more. That opened the door for a new team to enter. Creighton seized a big opportunity with a blowout win at Butler, and enters the group. Dayton was close here. And Clemson was entering Saturday, before falling to NC State.
MIDDLE SEEDS
Kentucky is the highest riser by a long shot here. The Wildcats became the first team to win at Auburn, a team who had won every home SEC game by double-digits. The ‘Cats defensive clinic throughout the night kept the rowdy Jungle mostly tame. This meant a jump over several teams today and landed Kentucky back up to a five-seed.
Florida continues to build momentum. A win at Georgia gave the Gators a second good road win to back up its win over Kentucky. That’s of course a win that aged well this weekend. Plus, the committee was perhaps high on San Diego State due to no losses outside of Q1, and Florida can still boast this as well.
Washington State has won seven in a row. Several teams fell over the weekend, which opened the door for WSU to move up substantially. The Cougars currently own four Q1 wins and have a showdown at Arizona this Thursday. An upset in Tucson would not only launch WSU further up the board, it would put the Cougars in the drivers seat for a Pac-12 Championship for the first time since 1941 in its final year as a league.
Florida Atlantic and Virginia had a rough outing last time out causing some slippage. FAU was able to rally hard in a AAC showdown at South Florida, but came up just short. The Cavs were completely blown out in the Commonwealth Clash in Blacksburg, which hurt some of their overall strength numbers, which can influence seeding.
BUBBLE
Mississippi State racked up a tight win over Arkansas this past weekend. The win likely didn’t seem like much to most, but in my view the Bulldogs just need to continue to rack up these base hits while several other competitors for the final spots tumble. With losses to Southern U. and at Georgia Tech, the last thing the Bulldogs need is a bigger mix of bad results. On the positive side, the wins over WSU and Northwestern in Connecticut are aging well, plus Tennessee and Auburn home wins are great to anchor with. The listed metrics on team sheets all align to MSU being a top 40 team and that was enough insurance for me to feel comfortable bringing them up the board as MSU finds themselves as a nine-seed today.
Texas A&M lost at Alabama handily. On the surface, that is somewhat an expected loss. TAMU has such an interesting body of work that boasts six Quad 1 wins, but they also have four subpar losses. That includes the recent loss to Vanderbilt last week. There are enough questions on this Aggie profile that I believe the committee would have a difficult time voting them into a nine or 10 seed right now, compared to other options. They landed in the first four - destined for Dayon today.
Ole Miss and Nebraska find themselves in razor thin positions due to an abundance of meaningless Quad 4 games that aren’t helping and which led to each school owning NCSOS rankings north of 320. This is typically grounds for termination near the bubble. The Huskers have really cleaned house at home to build its resume, but 1-7 in true road games add even deeper red flags to the Cornhuskers’ body of work. Ole Miss has the weakest in-conference schedule in the SEC to go along with its poor NCSOS. However, the Rebels passed big tests already at TAMU and at UCF, which continue to show the committee some solid evidence that they belong with its 5-5 record away from Oxford. For now, both of these teams are avoiding Dayton in the Bracket. But another loss for either can mean complete exclusion. I generally have a hard time seeing either of them being Dayton teams, as I think they both will either play its way in convincingly or be out all together.
Butler is the last team in today. Despite the beautiful road wins at Creighton and Marquette, a record of 9-10 in meaningful games (when Q4 is removed from record) is beyond risky business. The Bulldogs really don’t have a bad loss, just a bad winning percentage compared to its amount of chances. Hanging on for now, plus there remains two projected bid steals in this forecast which may or may not mean a little more cushion when we get to the finish line.
New Mexico is a team that I believe is more worthy of selection than Butler. The forecast today is calling for the Lobos to be left out however. In large part this is due to the remaining Mountain West schedule. With several more games between the six tourney hopefuls (SDSU/CSU/USU/Nevada/Boise State/UNM), the chances of all six remaining in are fairly slim. I am sure there is a mathematical formula of road wins and no bad losses that would overturn my forecast. For now, the Lobos are the odd team out. The big road win at Nevada and overall sweep of Nevada looks great, but its next best road win is in Quad 3. All four neutral court wins unfortunately are Quad 3 or worse. It leaves the Lobos’ proverbial high-end cupboard bare compared to the other bubble options (sans Butler). The three home wins against tournament teams all came at home and against teams in the league. Non-Conference wise, the Lobos got stuck with a poor schedule due to home game demands from its athletic department. If they end up in this situation on Selection Sunday, it would be a brutal pill to swallow. This team is highly skilled and deeply talented, my analyst brain thinks they will close strong and play well into the at-large field. For today, there is either work to do or some inner-conference upsets to Boise State to root for (Lobos really don’t want to root against Nevada, since they swept the Pack). New Mexico plays at both Boise State and Utah State in March, I believe they need to win one of them at minimum.
AUTO BIDS
Charleston benefited from Elon’s upset over UNC Wilmington to claim the inside track in the CAA. The Cougars will need to have their “A-Game” this week on the road though if they wish to stay in command. The always tough Delaware/Towson road swing begins this Thursday night.
Houston seized control of the Big XII race last night with its win over Iowa State. No damage done to the at-large bids, of course.
Norfolk State overtook N.C. Central for pole position in the MEAC race. It was a great, high-energy matchup last night.
Southern U. took a loss to Texas Southern on Monday evening, which puts Grambling back in front of the SWAC race.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top-seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: New Mexico, Cincinnati, Utah, James Madison
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Drake, Villanova, Princeton, Providence
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