Bracketology 01.25.25

Greetings on this fine Saturday morning!

Friday night yielded a a few tweaks to the field, yet nothing substantial. Purdue’s demolition of Michigan earned them enough cache’ to jump up the seed list a few spots, but didn’t change much for Michigan. The Wolverines were expected to lose the game and they were well positioned as a five-seed.

The VCU Rams stayed in control of the A-10 race. Rams, George Mason, and Saint Louis all have just the one loss at the top and VCU/Saint Louis have a rematch next Tuesday.

UCLA added a road win at Washington. No major change, but this Quad 2 road win still helps the Bruins build a stronger foundation. They now have a pair of road wins in the vault thus far (also, Oregon).

If you missed any of the FIELDING THE 68 Show, we covered nearly all of the heavyweight teams, the Bubble, and squads in the mid-range. You can re-watch that here:

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1: MVC (Bradley). The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Indiana, North Carolina, Texas, Cincinnati

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Santa Clara, SMU, Ohio State, Northwestern

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Bracketology 01.18.25

Happy Saturday to all!

There is no doubt that the 148 games today and 11 more on Sunday will create chaos in the current pecking order by Monday. I did, however, go through around 100 or so resumes yesterday. Pair that exercise with a few interesting Friday results, I figured it would be worth sharing where the forecast stands heading into another wild Saturday.

UCLA and Indiana did just enough last night to move the needle and find a home in the bracket. The season-long data is still less than 60% mature, so road wins or top-tier wins will move the needle further at this earlier stage of the forecasting process.

Temple also represents the American Conference after winning over Memphis, which took Arizona State out of the field.

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (Temple), MVC (Bradley). The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Arizona State, Maryland, Wake Forest, Texas

NEXT TEAMS OUT: UC San Diego, Vanderbilt, SMU, Iowa

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Bracketology 01.13.2025

WELCOME TO MID-SEASON

We’ve arrived!

The 2025 midway point is essentially here for the upper echelon of College Hoops. Power programs are sitting near or at 16 of their 31 games, so I’d argue that 50% or more of the season-long data is ready for review.

We are experiencing a sport-shifting season in many ways. The Big 12 has had the upper hand on all other leagues for the majority of the past decade. A major reason was the combination of having blue blood (Kansas) to allow other competing programs to build stronger programs themselves and the league remaining smaller in size than the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC. Well, I’m sorry to share that those days of having an edge are over with the Big 12 becoming the Big 16 this year, and losing the annual quality of Texas and Oklahoma.

The SEC (16) and Big Ten (18) are also massive in quantity and quality. Half of their league members will naturally be around or above .500 in the conference by the season’s end. This creates a vacuum of bids for these super leagues and arguably guarantees a large cluster of bids for these two leagues. That’s the case thus far in 2025 with the SEC having a superior non-conference.

Based on non-conference, an argument could be made for the SEC to have 14 of 16 members dancing. However, this notion of 14 teams getting in from the same league is pure fantasyland. Simple math tells us, that teams will accumulate losses within the league schedule. It is an unbalanced schedule in leagues as big as the SEC or bigger, much like non-conference resumes are unbalanced. However, I can not nor should not project a 6-12 SEC team or worse for inclusion into the field. A prospective NCAA hopeful would need to be at least six games over .500 in non-conference to offset that win percentage, and even so the committee would likely have better candidates. A 7-11 league team can be realistically selected (2019 Oklahoma, 2022 Iowa State, and 2023 West Virginia), but NCSOS strength will be critical, as the Big 12 learned several times over in recent history. It should also be noted that the Big 12 expanded last year and nobody below 9-9 in conference had the goods to get in.

Oklahoma (2024) was in a strong position to get in last year until four to five bid steals occurred during Championship Week, and in the end, the Sooners couldn’t complain because of an 8-10 showing in league play and a 12-12 record in meaningful games, despite no bad losses.

For Illustration Purposes: 2024 Oklahoma had a combined 12-12 record in meaningful games. Just 4-12 however in its toughest 16 contests, and the committee ultimately left them behind.

And here are the 2024 Big 12 Standings, last season’s top league in America:

Nobody made it in that finished under .500 which is a cautionary tale for this year’s super conferences. Particularly teams that didn’t have strong non-conference schedules. Early warning signs are flashing bright red this season for Vanderbilt (330 NCSOS) and Maryland (314 NCSOS).

All this being said, the SEC has had a historic start to the year as a collective whole.

The SEC keeps climbing in the highest single-season conference ratings in the KenPom era:

• No. 1 - ACC, 1996-97 (+21.37)
• No. 2 - SEC, 2024-25 (+20.71)
• No. 3 - ACC, 2003-04 (+20.32)
• No. 4 - Big 12, 2016-17 (+19.81)
• No. 5 - Big 12, 2021-22 (+18.74)

Up almost .40 in…
— Blake Lovell (@theblakelovell) January 13, 2025

The most bids ever to a conference were the 11 bids rewarded to the Big East in 2011. I do believe the SEC would max out at 11 despite some potential of 12-13 belonging in the field. And as we saw in the Big 12 last year, some teams will naturally not play well or come apart (as happens in almost every year). So let’s see how the dust settles in eight weeks. I will go ahead and run with 11 bids today (Mizzou going to Dayton). I believe it would be a big achievement for the league to get 11 in, despite the ambitious expectations right now.

BUBBLES FOR DAYS

January calls for a month of hope, more than a time of regret. For the power conference teams, there are tons of more opportunities at the highest level to reverse the course of its season or to improve to a better seed.

For those in traditional one-bid leagues, congratulations on making it this far! It’s truly an achievement, now you have to just keep doing it for two more months with no stumbling.

Today’s bubble had no shortage of contestants. Eight of the 26 realistic hopefuls found a home in the bracket. Those that missed the cut had some common themes that need work:

Have not beaten a team in the projected field: SMU, Texas, Vanderbilt, Indiana

Have not won a road game in the top two quadrants: Maryland, Dayton, SMU, Wake Forest

Under .500 in meaningful games (non-Q4): Ohio State, Arkansas, Texas, Cincinnati, Villanova

For UC San Diego, it has been an incredible story. The Tritons’ home loss to Seattle U. is still sitting in Quad 4 and it hurt to lose that one by 13. Otherwise, UCSD is one of the great stories in the sport. First-year eligible for the NCAAs after just concluding its four-year D1 transitional period. A bevy of former D2 and under-recruited stars make up the rotation and a healthy dose of ball protection. It’s a wonderfully run system under Eric Olen that I saw firsthand as they won the Boardwalk Battle in November. The Tritons have a golden road win at Utah State and back that up with a Q2 road win at UCSB. The Big West offers one more swing at UC Irvine on February 8th to give UCSD another likely Q1 opportunity. UCSD just missed the cut today. This could be a terrific WAB (Wins Above Bubble) case study, which unfortunately has the Tritons at 56th this morning.

The combo of Mizzou, Iowa, UCF, and Creighton make up the quartet forecasted to Dayton. They each have issues for different reasons but were better options based on merits than the teams highlighted above.

bRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1: MVC (Bradley). The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Maryland, UC San Diego, Indiana, Wake Forest

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Arkansas, Texas

Preseason Bracketology 2025

The 2024-25 Season is upon us. It’s time for the preseason bracket exercise. This forecast is based on a number of factors including but not limited to: perceived team strength, perceived coaching strength, roster evaluations, strength of schedule evaluations, and conference tournament locations and format.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1: A-10 (Saint Louis). The Annual Average = 2.5 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Kansas State, New Mexico, Georgia, Villanova

NEXT TEAMS OUT: South Carolina, Iowa, West Virginia, Syracuse

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER/X: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology - FINAL Forecast for 2024

This is it. Please join us for live reactions and a Selection Sunday Preview over at Field of 68.

🏀 IT'S FINALLY TIME!! 🏀

7 hours. 18 personalities. Wall-to-wall brackets.

You don't need to go anywhere else for your Selection Sunday reaction and breakdowns.

TUNE IN TONIGHT AT 5:30PM ET:https://t.co/431QFhRYwd pic.twitter.com/CtIBqR3Avv
— The Field of 68 (@TheFieldOf68) March 17, 2024

BRACKET

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 4: AAC (UAB), ACC (N.C. State), A-10 (Duquesne), Pac-12 (Oregon). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: St. John’s, Michigan State, Indiana State, Seton Hall

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Pittsburgh, Providence, Wake Forest, Princeton

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8