Bracketology

Bracketology 01.31.25

Closing January with Moves!

Movement across the landscape since Monday. Here is a quick rundown of how things fell by Friday A.M.

  • Tennessee played its way off the 1-seed line but hosts Florida tomorrow

  • Houston jumped the shark and now has road wins at Kansas, West Virginia, and UCF to go along with ridiculous performance measures.

  • Kentucky adds another quality road win at Tennessee and bumps back into the top ten overall

  • Razor thin differences between teams 14 (Wisconsin) thru 21 (Memphis) and its the difference of a couple of seed lines right now.

  • Same for 22 (Texas Tech) thru 29 (Saint Mary’s). Some great performance teams are being compared to much stronger resume teams, creating some mud in the middle.

  • UConn and Gonzaga continue to fight a bad resume, and the Huskies may be in deeper danger if they cannot get back to full strength or if they take a couple of bad losses to add to the Colorado loss.

  • Bubble is dicey and uncomfortable. The way it should be! Most discomforting is the SEC getting 13 of 16 members into the dance. Although the margins for Texas, Georgia, and Oklahoma are thin. Vanderbilt needs more road work.

    • Making things more uncomfortable is sub-.500 Ohio State (7-8 ) in meaningful games being included. The precedent here would require extraordinary wins, and I think Purdue on the road and Kentucky in MSG qualify by a smidge. It is close. Do not be deceived by the Buckeyes’ 10-seed. That was primarily a result of the secondary seeding process, where tOSU excels. Consider them the last team in.

  • Nebraska helped its case with the win over Illinois last night but remains 7-8 in meaningful games and does not have the road resume that Ohio State owns.

  • BYU needs road work. SMU needs higher-quality wins, but I remain impressed with the no-bad losses from the Mustangs.

  • Indiana and North Carolina are hanging around, clearly, both have massive games coming up next. Not picking them to win, but opportunity is all you can ask for when bubbled.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Nebraska, Indiana, BYU, Wake Forest

NEXT TEAMS OUT: SMU, UC San Diego, North Carolina, North Texas

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.28.25

What’s that smell? Is it a Groundhog? Is it going to be February by this weekend?!

Another full week and wild Big Monday are now in the books for our 2024-25 College Hoops journey together. As the data materialized, the mysteries have expanded.

  • Can the SEC break the record of 11 bids by a single conference?

  • Will the A-10, American, MVC, and Big West be limited to one participant each?

  • Do Auburn and Alabama have friends in Lexington? Will they root against each other in Lexington?

  • In a year where Seattle hosts the first two rounds, Gonzaga will not be there?

The list is quite long, and there are many mysteries about what March may look like. You came here today to better understand what it would look like if the year ended this morning.

TOP SEEDS

Over the past 60 or so hours, our tightest battle at the top has withstood a flood. Iowa State and Tennessee may be even closer together now, then they were on Friday.

In summary, Iowa State had the edge after Saturday’s rally to pummel Arizona State late. That is because Tennessee fell just shy in a rock fight at Auburn. The combined results added to the body of work of both programs clearly favored the 17-2 Cyclones. Those Cyclones were well on their way to even greater Seed List heights with under three seconds left last night in Tucson. Then this happened:

From that point on, Arizona polished off an 11-point OT win. A stunned Cyclones team got on a plane back to Ames late last night.

A lot to process following one result, and in the end it goes down as part of the ISU story, a win became a loss. Bridging the gap even closer with Tennessee. Ultimately, the decision to stick with the Cyclones within today’s forecast is the right one based on what we understand about both teams. Iowa State has a slightly better high-end road record (4-2) despite than loss than the Vols (3-3) and slightly better records in each quadrant breakdown, despite each team having three losses overall. This race for the final 1-seed has been good theatre and should only continue with Tennessee hosting Kentucky tonight.

The other really big mover was Houston. A team who had all of the signs to be a top team nationally and dominant performances, still lacked any kind of heavyweight win after falling short in Vegas. Nobody could have predicted they would win in such a momentous fashion at Phog Allen Fieldhouse. The final stretch required missed free throws, a steal, extremely difficult threes, and more:

Houston woke up on Sunday with the high quality road win it was searching for and its best win of the season by a mile. The Cougars will continue to fill out its resume as we go along in the Big XII. The scariest part is that they already have the credentials to be on the 2-seed line.

MIDDLE SEEDS

Arizona’s win over Iowa State gave it a shot in the arm. That shot included a boost above a few teams in the Tuesday AM re-boot of building the seed list. Cats are a 5-seed.

Maryland may have had the best week of anyone. Blowing out shorthanded Illinois in Champaign, and handing Indiana a brutal blow in the closing moments in Bloomington. Road concerns have evaporated for now in College Park.

Missouri picked up another quality win over Ole Miss. The Tigers have come together as a team quite nicely, and are winning games through ball movement and elite spacing. The results have them creeping up the board right now, and with the road win at Florida already possessed - this could be a team who rapidly rises with continued consistent high-level play

BUBBLE

The SEC continues to do things to my forecast that are unprecedented. This time around it is Georgia who goes under the microscope. The conference has 13 at large worthy teams in a 16-team league. Even Arkansas and LSU can still wake up and make a run. So its complicated to forecast this out. I took a peak at KenPom projections, who still has most of the bubble hopefuls (besides LSU/Ark) going 7-11, 8-10, or 9-9. In each individual scenario, the team in question (primarily looking at Oklahoma, Texas, Vandy, and Georgia right now) still had a “selectable” resume. Maintaining a .500 record in meaningful games (which deducts Q4 results).

Human nature suggests that one, two, or more teams will hit a wall to make this easy. Or perhaps a scandal or a new coaching search rumor? Anything?! So far it hasn’t become clear. With Georgia specifically, they’ve become the 13th team in the pecking order. I like what I’ve seen from them in fairness. The Bulldogs are missing a decent road win. Its only road win is a Q3 win at rival Georgia Tech, who is having a rough go (currently 148th in NET). UGA lost all five of its hardest games in Quad 1A and added an Arkansas loss last week. There is enough reason to pick them apart in a committee setting where other conference commissioners may be less enthused about a 13-bid SEC. Combine that with the fact that losses are coming to the big picture Bubble in the SEC, it felt okay to exclude the Bulldogs today.

That’s because Wake Forest and Arizona State do have quality road wins! Especially ASU, who won at West Virginia earlier this month, and own wins over Saint Mary’s and New Mexico away from home. Give me a squad like the Sun Devils who has the proof away from home! In Wake’s case, they do own the Quad 1A win over Michigan at this moment and match UGA’s “no bad losses”. The 5-4 Away/Neutral record for the Demon Deacons is also a tad more impressive that Georgia’s 3-5 record here, although the competition levels are different.

CONFERENCE RACES

Big change occured on Monday with South Alabama stunningly losing at UL Monroe.

This allows the Red Wolves of Arkansas State to re-emerge into the Forecast. Arkansas State had a very strong non-conference effort, highlighted by the win at Memphis. This version of ASU belongs as one of the coveted 12-seeds, and that pushed Samford to a 13-seed, and pushes Utah Valley to a 14-seed.

The Jacksonville Dolphins (ASUN) and Cleveland State Vikings (HLMBB) are amazingly running through their leagues right now. JU has won seven straight to suddenly emerge as the lead fish in a league where Lipscomb and North Alabama are getting most of the attention. Similar vibes at Cleveland State, who was mostly looked at as an after-thought in preseason. CSU has been a model of consistent winning for almost two full months, during this 12-game win streak.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1: MVC (Bradley). The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Georgia, North Carolina, SMU, Indiana

NEXT TEAMS OUT: North Texas, BYU, Ohio State, Xavier

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.25.25

Greetings on this fine Saturday morning!

Friday night yielded a a few tweaks to the field, yet nothing substantial. Purdue’s demolition of Michigan earned them enough cache’ to jump up the seed list a few spots, but didn’t change much for Michigan. The Wolverines were expected to lose the game and they were well positioned as a five-seed.

The VCU Rams stayed in control of the A-10 race. Rams, George Mason, and Saint Louis all have just the one loss at the top and VCU/Saint Louis have a rematch next Tuesday.

UCLA added a road win at Washington. No major change, but this Quad 2 road win still helps the Bruins build a stronger foundation. They now have a pair of road wins in the vault thus far (also, Oregon).

If you missed any of the FIELDING THE 68 Show, we covered nearly all of the heavyweight teams, the Bubble, and squads in the mid-range. You can re-watch that here:

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1: MVC (Bradley). The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Indiana, North Carolina, Texas, Cincinnati

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Santa Clara, SMU, Ohio State, Northwestern

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.18.25

Happy Saturday to all!

There is no doubt that the 148 games today and 11 more on Sunday will create chaos in the current pecking order by Monday. I did, however, go through around 100 or so resumes yesterday. Pair that exercise with a few interesting Friday results, I figured it would be worth sharing where the forecast stands heading into another wild Saturday.

UCLA and Indiana did just enough last night to move the needle and find a home in the bracket. The season-long data is still less than 60% mature, so road wins or top-tier wins will move the needle further at this earlier stage of the forecasting process.

Temple also represents the American Conference after winning over Memphis, which took Arizona State out of the field.

BRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 2: AAC (Temple), MVC (Bradley). The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Arizona State, Maryland, Wake Forest, Texas

NEXT TEAMS OUT: UC San Diego, Vanderbilt, SMU, Iowa

FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8

Bracketology 01.13.2025

WELCOME TO MID-SEASON

We’ve arrived!

The 2025 midway point is essentially here for the upper echelon of College Hoops. Power programs are sitting near or at 16 of their 31 games, so I’d argue that 50% or more of the season-long data is ready for review.

We are experiencing a sport-shifting season in many ways. The Big 12 has had the upper hand on all other leagues for the majority of the past decade. A major reason was the combination of having blue blood (Kansas) to allow other competing programs to build stronger programs themselves and the league remaining smaller in size than the Big Ten, SEC, and ACC. Well, I’m sorry to share that those days of having an edge are over with the Big 12 becoming the Big 16 this year, and losing the annual quality of Texas and Oklahoma.

The SEC (16) and Big Ten (18) are also massive in quantity and quality. Half of their league members will naturally be around or above .500 in the conference by the season’s end. This creates a vacuum of bids for these super leagues and arguably guarantees a large cluster of bids for these two leagues. That’s the case thus far in 2025 with the SEC having a superior non-conference.

Based on non-conference, an argument could be made for the SEC to have 14 of 16 members dancing. However, this notion of 14 teams getting in from the same league is pure fantasyland. Simple math tells us, that teams will accumulate losses within the league schedule. It is an unbalanced schedule in leagues as big as the SEC or bigger, much like non-conference resumes are unbalanced. However, I can not nor should not project a 6-12 SEC team or worse for inclusion into the field. A prospective NCAA hopeful would need to be at least six games over .500 in non-conference to offset that win percentage, and even so the committee would likely have better candidates. A 7-11 league team can be realistically selected (2019 Oklahoma, 2022 Iowa State, and 2023 West Virginia), but NCSOS strength will be critical, as the Big 12 learned several times over in recent history. It should also be noted that the Big 12 expanded last year and nobody below 9-9 in conference had the goods to get in.

Oklahoma (2024) was in a strong position to get in last year until four to five bid steals occurred during Championship Week, and in the end, the Sooners couldn’t complain because of an 8-10 showing in league play and a 12-12 record in meaningful games, despite no bad losses.

For Illustration Purposes: 2024 Oklahoma had a combined 12-12 record in meaningful games. Just 4-12 however in its toughest 16 contests, and the committee ultimately left them behind.

And here are the 2024 Big 12 Standings, last season’s top league in America:

Nobody made it in that finished under .500 which is a cautionary tale for this year’s super conferences. Particularly teams that didn’t have strong non-conference schedules. Early warning signs are flashing bright red this season for Vanderbilt (330 NCSOS) and Maryland (314 NCSOS).

All this being said, the SEC has had a historic start to the year as a collective whole.

The most bids ever to a conference were the 11 bids rewarded to the Big East in 2011. I do believe the SEC would max out at 11 despite some potential of 12-13 belonging in the field. And as we saw in the Big 12 last year, some teams will naturally not play well or come apart (as happens in almost every year). So let’s see how the dust settles in eight weeks. I will go ahead and run with 11 bids today (Mizzou going to Dayton). I believe it would be a big achievement for the league to get 11 in, despite the ambitious expectations right now.

BUBBLES FOR DAYS

January calls for a month of hope, more than a time of regret. For the power conference teams, there are tons of more opportunities at the highest level to reverse the course of its season or to improve to a better seed.

For those in traditional one-bid leagues, congratulations on making it this far! It’s truly an achievement, now you have to just keep doing it for two more months with no stumbling.

Today’s bubble had no shortage of contestants. Eight of the 26 realistic hopefuls found a home in the bracket. Those that missed the cut had some common themes that need work:

Have not beaten a team in the projected field: SMU, Texas, Vanderbilt, Indiana

Have not won a road game in the top two quadrants: Maryland, Dayton, SMU, Wake Forest

Under .500 in meaningful games (non-Q4): Ohio State, Arkansas, Texas, Cincinnati, Villanova

For UC San Diego, it has been an incredible story. The Tritons’ home loss to Seattle U. is still sitting in Quad 4 and it hurt to lose that one by 13. Otherwise, UCSD is one of the great stories in the sport. First-year eligible for the NCAAs after just concluding its four-year D1 transitional period. A bevy of former D2 and under-recruited stars make up the rotation and a healthy dose of ball protection. It’s a wonderfully run system under Eric Olen that I saw firsthand as they won the Boardwalk Battle in November. The Tritons have a golden road win at Utah State and back that up with a Q2 road win at UCSB. The Big West offers one more swing at UC Irvine on February 8th to give UCSD another likely Q1 opportunity. UCSD just missed the cut today. This could be a terrific WAB (Wins Above Bubble) case study, which unfortunately has the Tritons at 56th this morning.

The combo of Mizzou, Iowa, UCF, and Creighton make up the quartet forecasted to Dayton. They each have issues for different reasons but were better options based on merits than the teams highlighted above.

bRACKET

Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.

Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1: MVC (Bradley). The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.

FIRST FOUR OUT: Maryland, UC San Diego, Indiana, Wake Forest

NEXT TEAMS OUT: Vanderbilt, Ohio State, Arkansas, Texas

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