What’s that smell? Is it a Groundhog? Is it going to be February by this weekend?!
Another full week and wild Big Monday are now in the books for our 2024-25 College Hoops journey together. As the data materialized, the mysteries have expanded.
Can the SEC break the record of 11 bids by a single conference?
Will the A-10, American, MVC, and Big West be limited to one participant each?
Do Auburn and Alabama have friends in Lexington? Will they root against each other in Lexington?
In a year where Seattle hosts the first two rounds, Gonzaga will not be there?
The list is quite long, and there are many mysteries about what March may look like. You came here today to better understand what it would look like if the year ended this morning.
TOP SEEDS
Over the past 60 or so hours, our tightest battle at the top has withstood a flood. Iowa State and Tennessee may be even closer together now, then they were on Friday.
In summary, Iowa State had the edge after Saturday’s rally to pummel Arizona State late. That is because Tennessee fell just shy in a rock fight at Auburn. The combined results added to the body of work of both programs clearly favored the 17-2 Cyclones. Those Cyclones were well on their way to even greater Seed List heights with under three seconds left last night in Tucson. Then this happened:
From that point on, Arizona polished off an 11-point OT win. A stunned Cyclones team got on a plane back to Ames late last night.
A lot to process following one result, and in the end it goes down as part of the ISU story, a win became a loss. Bridging the gap even closer with Tennessee. Ultimately, the decision to stick with the Cyclones within today’s forecast is the right one based on what we understand about both teams. Iowa State has a slightly better high-end road record (4-2) despite than loss than the Vols (3-3) and slightly better records in each quadrant breakdown, despite each team having three losses overall. This race for the final 1-seed has been good theatre and should only continue with Tennessee hosting Kentucky tonight.
The other really big mover was Houston. A team who had all of the signs to be a top team nationally and dominant performances, still lacked any kind of heavyweight win after falling short in Vegas. Nobody could have predicted they would win in such a momentous fashion at Phog Allen Fieldhouse. The final stretch required missed free throws, a steal, extremely difficult threes, and more:
Houston woke up on Sunday with the high quality road win it was searching for and its best win of the season by a mile. The Cougars will continue to fill out its resume as we go along in the Big XII. The scariest part is that they already have the credentials to be on the 2-seed line.
MIDDLE SEEDS
Arizona’s win over Iowa State gave it a shot in the arm. That shot included a boost above a few teams in the Tuesday AM re-boot of building the seed list. Cats are a 5-seed.
Maryland may have had the best week of anyone. Blowing out shorthanded Illinois in Champaign, and handing Indiana a brutal blow in the closing moments in Bloomington. Road concerns have evaporated for now in College Park.
Missouri picked up another quality win over Ole Miss. The Tigers have come together as a team quite nicely, and are winning games through ball movement and elite spacing. The results have them creeping up the board right now, and with the road win at Florida already possessed - this could be a team who rapidly rises with continued consistent high-level play
BUBBLE
The SEC continues to do things to my forecast that are unprecedented. This time around it is Georgia who goes under the microscope. The conference has 13 at large worthy teams in a 16-team league. Even Arkansas and LSU can still wake up and make a run. So its complicated to forecast this out. I took a peak at KenPom projections, who still has most of the bubble hopefuls (besides LSU/Ark) going 7-11, 8-10, or 9-9. In each individual scenario, the team in question (primarily looking at Oklahoma, Texas, Vandy, and Georgia right now) still had a “selectable” resume. Maintaining a .500 record in meaningful games (which deducts Q4 results).
Human nature suggests that one, two, or more teams will hit a wall to make this easy. Or perhaps a scandal or a new coaching search rumor? Anything?! So far it hasn’t become clear. With Georgia specifically, they’ve become the 13th team in the pecking order. I like what I’ve seen from them in fairness. The Bulldogs are missing a decent road win. Its only road win is a Q3 win at rival Georgia Tech, who is having a rough go (currently 148th in NET). UGA lost all five of its hardest games in Quad 1A and added an Arkansas loss last week. There is enough reason to pick them apart in a committee setting where other conference commissioners may be less enthused about a 13-bid SEC. Combine that with the fact that losses are coming to the big picture Bubble in the SEC, it felt okay to exclude the Bulldogs today.
That’s because Wake Forest and Arizona State do have quality road wins! Especially ASU, who won at West Virginia earlier this month, and own wins over Saint Mary’s and New Mexico away from home. Give me a squad like the Sun Devils who has the proof away from home! In Wake’s case, they do own the Quad 1A win over Michigan at this moment and match UGA’s “no bad losses”. The 5-4 Away/Neutral record for the Demon Deacons is also a tad more impressive that Georgia’s 3-5 record here, although the competition levels are different.
CONFERENCE RACES
Big change occured on Monday with South Alabama stunningly losing at UL Monroe.
This allows the Red Wolves of Arkansas State to re-emerge into the Forecast. Arkansas State had a very strong non-conference effort, highlighted by the win at Memphis. This version of ASU belongs as one of the coveted 12-seeds, and that pushed Samford to a 13-seed, and pushes Utah Valley to a 14-seed.
The Jacksonville Dolphins (ASUN) and Cleveland State Vikings (HLMBB) are amazingly running through their leagues right now. JU has won seven straight to suddenly emerge as the lead fish in a league where Lipscomb and North Alabama are getting most of the attention. Similar vibes at Cleveland State, who was mostly looked at as an after-thought in preseason. CSU has been a model of consistent winning for almost two full months, during this 12-game win streak.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1: MVC (Bradley). The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: Georgia, North Carolina, SMU, Indiana
NEXT TEAMS OUT: North Texas, BYU, Ohio State, Xavier
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