BRACKET NOTES
Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.
- Depsite the loss last night, Ohio State remained secure as the final one-seed. Aiding the Buckeyes were losses by Alabama, Illinois and Iowa this week. Villanova has played fewer games, but should they continue to win and win the Big East Tournament, I can envision the Wildcats taking the fourth one-seed by Selection Sunday. On the two-seed line, I have West Virginia trading places with Iowa. It actually wasn’t as simple as I had expected. Despite losing last night convincingly, Iowa actually saw their resume improve somewhat. The Hawkeye road win at Michigan State now means more because the Spartans are on the board (more on them in a minute). The comparison between WV and the Hawkeyes is a narrow one. Ultimately I tilt to the Mountaineers due to stronger road wins (TTech, TX, OK St) and equal (eight) wins against the board as Iowa.
- The middle of the bracket (anywhere from 15-27 on the Big Board) is a complete mess. I am giving Tennessee the benefit of the doubt at number 15 due to the bracket reveal, although the resume says they belong lower. Arkansas has a really clean resume (nothing bad at all) and I think that earns them the final protected seed (16th overall) instead of Creighton - who has three ugly home losses in quad three.
- UCLA is the new leader of the Pac-12 following USC’s loss to Colorado. The Bruins still don’t have the greatest resume, but giving them a nudge here to the eight-seed line for being in first. San Diego State also took over first place in the Mountain West after winning the first leg over Boise State last night. That is just enough to push the Aztecs up to the nine-line. Boise State remains in relatively the same position for now, however getting swept would put the Broncos in some dangerous waters.
- Everyone’s favorite topic - the Bubble. Well, let’s start with Michigan State. Spartans have had a ridiculous week. Last Saturday, they won at Indiana. Then of course they beat Illinois and Ohio State at home this week, to completely turn things around. As things stand, the Spartans belong in the field. With losses from Seton Hall, Xavier, Stanford and others this week - the final spot was very difficult. I’m sticking with Richmond, who has the most impressive body of work away from home. As for Xavier and Stanford, I think the scales have tipped and they need to go get another tourney-caliber win to get back in the field. As for Georgia Tech and Duke, tons of upside with both here. G-Tech still has the home losses to Mercer and Georgia State that they cannot escape, perhaps one more key win flips their fate. Duke has the nice home wins over Virginia and Clemson, but they have nothing better than NC State on the road. Both GT and Duke face each other next week, so this could easily sort itself out on the court. Richmond is nowhere near comfortable in this final spot.
- The 13-seeds are stronger than ever today. Belmont took a tough loss last night at Eastern Kentucky, and that dropped the Bruins down into this seeding area. Nick Musczynski missed the game, however. Assuming he gets back to full strength, the Bruins are just as dangerous. Also, Furman joins the mix. The Paladins have tremendous upside with guys like Mike Bothwell, Noah Gurley and Clay Mounce. Not a team a four-seed would be excited to face. By now you should know about Toledo and UC Santa Barbara. UCSB has won 11-straight and posess P6-level talent. Gauchos’ PG Devearl Ramsey is second in the nation in assist to turnover ratio. Toledo throws a five-out attack at opposing defenses, which makes them incredibly difficult to defend as anyone on the floor can hit from deep. Let’s see if this quartet can get to the dance. If so, watch out.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
MVC - Drake (own tie-breaker if both Bulldogs and Loyola-Chicago tie)
MWC - San Diego State
Pac-12 - UCLA
SoCon - Furman
Southland - Abilene Christian
Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly unlikely, annual average is 2.4 per season)
NCAA ALTERNATE TEAMS: Xavier, Stanford, Georgia Tech, Duke
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Indiana, Ole Miss, Minnesota, Utah State
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