Happy February Eve! We’re about to embark on the “dog days” of College Basketball as we enter the crucial month of February. Several teams who we thought were going to be Tournament mainstays this season are slipping, and others who were prematurely written off (always a rookie mistake by the CBB community) are beginning to really gel. Were talking about Kentucky’s, Texas’s, Arkansas’s, VCU’s, and the UNC Wilmington’s of the world. The types of teams you really need to be watching closely and playing their best ball of the season.
This coming week, a new Bracketology show on @TheFieldof68 will debut. The first episode is tomorrow and airs live at 6 PM EST, and same time again on Friday. I’ll be on both episodes this week, be sure to check it out. Also, @HoopsHD continues to crank out nonstop content with the HoopsHD Report on Mondays, Under The Radar Show on Wednesdays, and a Bracket Reveal Show each Thursday. I do my best to join their panel on a weekly basis.
SEED SUMMARY
TOP SEEDS
Auburn and Gonzaga are shoo-ins for the top two teams off the board. Auburn handled their business over Oklahoma this weekend and Gonzaga did their typical thing against inferior WCC programs - by blowing out Portland.
Baylor took a loss at Alabama. However, still feel more than comfortable calling the Bears the third team selected here. That was Baylor’s first loss away from home, and the Bears, in general, have stood out as a dominant team away from Waco. Not to mention, the fact that all of the metrics are solid, averaging a 3.33 ranking across the three predictive (KP, SAG, BPI) metrics listed on NCAA Team Sheets.
The real deliberation begins with determining that fourth top-seed. For Today, I am going with Purdue. I do believe four teams are worth diving into for this place. Kansas, who we had as the fourth #1 seed on Friday, took a rough home loss against Kentucky, you may have heard (highlights below). Arizona and UCLA are both eager to be a 1-seed, however, they lack the top-end road juice that Purdue and Kansas have. For instance, Purdue and Arizona both have won at Illinois, which is excellent. Purdue though has the supplemental high-end away wins to back it up, at Iowa, and Villanova + UNC on a neutral. Kansas still has a plethora of quality wins (seven vs. the field if you count North Texas), but the metrics took a hit with this Kentucky game debacle. Purdue wins out for now.
PROTECTED SEEDS
As seen above, Kentucky was the major winner over this weekend by going into Phog Allen at destroying Kansas. This has done a few helpful things for the Wildcats overall profile:
Elite Road Win
Up to 8th in NET
4.67 AVG in Team Sheet Predictive’s
9th in SOR (Strength of Record)
Given the factors above, I believe Kentucky currently sits in a stronger position than Villanova for the last 2-seed on the board. Kansas, Arizona, and UCLA join them there.
The 3-Seed line consists of the aforementioned Villanova Wildcats, Duke, Wisconsin, and Houston. Really no changes here as all four teams handled their business this weekend and continue to solidify their cases as a top-end seed. Villanova dropped from a two to a three, only due to Kentucky jumping over them.
The 4-Seed line is headlined by a Providence team that just quite simply refuses to lose. Another big-time win in the closing moments occurred on Sunday in a two-point win over Marquette. Texas Tech looks as strong as ever after blowing out Mississippi State. Michigan State had a fun win over rivals Michigan, however, it wasn’t all gravy for the Spartans during the resume review. Both Spartan wins over Minnesota, which was previously a “win over the projected field” are now not. Minnesota has simply fallen off the board. Spartans will need to find someone new to go after as Michigan is also not a tournament team at this stage. Lastly, Alabama comes soaring in to crash the Top 16 overall party after yet another marquee win over Baylor. The Tide lead the nation with SIX Quad 1A wins! Nobody else has more than four.
The scheduling machine, Nate Oats, once again has Alabama picking up big wins and has not played a single Quad 4 opponent this season.
MIDDLE SEEDS (5-9)
This is the part of the S-Curve that gets difficult to project. Teams like Iowa State and Marquette have five-plus wins over the projected field, however, the quality (predictive) metrics aren’t in love with them. Marquette was able to overcome some of the metrics challenges with amazing resume wins at Nova, at Hall, and others. Whereas the Cyclones did not have enough juice to hold up in comparison to the five’s and six-seeds.
Saint Mary’s was the beneficiary of many teams falling around them and the Gaels played highly efficient basketball simultaneously. The Gaels have been on some shaky ground in weeks past, but now look as solid as ever after getting the win at San Francisco and reaching the Top 25 of a few key metrics. TCU also took a leap of faith by beating LSU over the weekend. The Horned Frogs now own three wins vs. the projected field and hold a 5-3 record against the top 2A quadrants.
BUBBLE BREAKDOWN
Full disclosure, there is not a lot of joy yet in breaking down the bubble.
There are too many teams in the hunt. I looked at 38 teams for 15 spots.
Most teams have areas to cause concern and many have defacto disqualifiers, either via quad unbalance, Resume’s in the 85+ territory, or metrics in the 85+ territory.
Several are simply just looking for a win vs. the field or a quality win away from home. In this area, we feel for the smaller schools that do not have the opportunity and have less sympathy for power teams like Mississippi State or North Carolina who still do not have a single Top two-quadrant away victory yet.
Going through all of these resumes, exposed a key team that is emerging - the VCU Rams. A quick look at the recent Bracket Matrix shows that only four of 98 people had the Rams in their brackets this past Friday. VCU went on to get another quality road win at rival Richmond this past Saturday and I have a strong belief that the selection committee would have deliberation in regards to the health of Ace Baldwin, Jr. Clearly the Rams have been on another level with Baldwin available. The numbers are starting to fall into place: 56th in NET, 47th in SOR, and four away wins in the top two quads (includes Davidson). We’re sold for today and sending the Rams to the First Four.
Wake Forest was the major exclusion here. Wake actually graded out as a first four team in the general sorting of all factors. However, historical precedence tells us that a team with an NCSOS of #326 would not be one of the final teams selected. The committee is notorious for discussing, “who did you play,” “where did you play them,” and “how did you do?”If you are a Wake fan, this is nothing personal, just what I believe what the committee would likely do in this situation.
VCU is not only catching the A-10 by surprise, they are now doing it to Bracket Makers.
Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (MVC, Drake)
FIRST FOUR OUT: Wake Forest, Creighton, UAB, Stanford
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Florida, Notre Dame, Belmont, New Mexico State
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