College Basketball has gone by at a rapid pace from where I am sitting. Here we are on February 21st and just 20 short days away from Selection Sunday. Fortunately, a ton of crucial games are either scheduled to be played or will inevitably happen in conference tournaments to help us fine tune the Bracket Forecasts just in time to give you the best understanding of what the committee is likely discussing on each part of the bracket.
Keep in mind that the first balloting process will likely conclude prior to Friday, March 11th action. The first ballot selects the top 32 teams in the field regardless of conference championships being concluded or not. Many will be in progress. That kicks off the next set of balloting to see where teams get stacked ranked, selected, and eventually seeded. A lot of the bracket work you see done here on the forecast, is all put together with this in mind. We should be able to draw a line on the Top 32.
This past Saturday, the actual NCAA Selection Committee put together a Bracket Preview Show that included the Top 16 Teams and a Regional preview. Here were the results:
Bracketeer’s forecast was pretty spot on. Duke and Villanova flipped for the final 2-seed and Illinois and Wisconsin flipped between the 3-seed lines and 4-seed lines, when comparing the Committee work to Bracketeer.Org. The Top 16 as a whole was correctly forecasted, which was a positive reassurance that my understanding of the process and presumed priorities of the committee are mostly in line.
REST OF THE SEED SUMMARY
MIDDLE SEEDS
One team that had perhaps the best shot to get into the Top 16, but didnt, is ranked fourth in the NET. That’s the Houston Cougars, who went out and won a road Ovetime game at Wichita State this weekend. With Texas suffering a home loss, Houston now has just enough to be ahead of Texas on the 4-seed line today.
Arkansas continues to build and build its resume. A 10-point home win over Tennessee is the latest big Hogs victory. The quality metrics agree that the Hogs are Top 20 team, averaging out at 19.33 across three ranking tools. This should give Arkansas the excellent opportunity to be a 5-seed, their highest projection of the season.
BUBBLE
The Indiana Hoosiers find themselves in the deep end of the ocean without much support. The cruel reality is that the Hoosiers have just the Notre Dame win on a neutral court and a single road-win (at Maryland) to show for their body of work away from Bloomington. Hoosiers will get two road chances this week, beginning with Ohio State tonight and Minnesota this coming Sunday. IU is also just 8-9 vs. the Top 3 Quadrants with a 313th ranked non-conference strength of schedule. With five games to go plus the B1G Tourney, IU likely needs a total of four wins out of the next six contests to help balance that. A marquee win, like at Ohio State Monday, would help tremendously.
North Texas continues to win at a compelling rate. UNT finds themselves 20-4 and winners of 12 in a row. Perhaps I am in the minority of many other bracketologists, but I have a deep respect for teams that can win in leagues like CUSA at this rate, with all of the tough travel demands and Thursday-Saturday week-to-week format. The Mean Green have navigated this wonderfully. A thrilling road win at UAB was the icing on the cake. The way they took this win away from UAB late will sting the Blazers for days to come. Here is how it ended:
On the outside looking in today for the first time all season is BYU. The Cougars’ loss to Saint Mary’s, of course is not a bad loss at all. But we’ve reached a juncture in which things are not going BYU’s way any longer when compared to other teams. BYU’s win over Oregon is not as shiny at the current moment, because of the Ducks current three-game losing streak and being well off the cutline for now. That knocked BYU down to three wins against the field instead of four. Also, the quad records are shakier today. BYU is 7-8 vs. the top two Quadrants and that is a tough spot. Not to mention, the Strength of Resume metric has dipped into the ’60s (now 64). All signs say NIT for now. This can improve however if BYU closes with the two home wins and gets a quality win or two in the WCC Tournament.
AUTO BIDS
Both Vermont and Cleveland State have now clinched the regular-season title in each of their respective leagues. Major kudos to each. Vermont has ruined America East competition. Catamounts have skyrocketed to #62 in the NET thanks to their uber-efficient play. Cleveland State has hung tough despite a few bumps in the road lately. Coach Dennis Gates has a hungry and veteran team. The Horizon League Tournament will be a battle, but at least for CSU, they start in the top posititon to advance.
Princeton re-enters the field this morning after a revenge win over Yale. The Tigers have a potent offensive attack and are a threat should they get to the NCAA’s.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)
FIRST FOUR OUT: North Carolina, Michigan, Florida, Virginia
NEXT TEAMS OUT: BYU, Belmont, Dayton, Kansas State
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