WAKE FOREST/XAVIER
We are diving in head first this morning. Wake Forest and Xavier happened to both lose overtime games to non-tournament teams, Boston College and Butler, respectively.
Wake Forest has the 338th ranked Out of Conference schedule and their best away wins are against Virginia, Virginia Tech, and Florida State, none of whom are going to the tournament as of now. There are nine wins against Quadrant 4 that you can likely ignore. So what’s left?
An overall 14-9 record with three of the nine losses in Quad 2B or worse. A total of two wins over tournament teams, both at home vs. North Carolina and Notre Dame. A total of four losses to non-tournament teams (neutral vs. BC yesterday and at Louisville are the Q3 losses). Wake just simply doesn’t have enough to get in at this point it seems. And any power conference team with this poor of a schedule is typically dismissed when dangerously close to the cut-line. Sorry Deacons fans, it was a great year but a likely trip to the NIT is ahead.
Xavier is a squad that has been ice cold. The ways in which they blew yesterday’s loss to Butler, was pretty staggering, and after Paul Scruggs fouled out the writing was on the wall. So where do the Musketeers stand?
Xavier played a much more respectable schedule than Wake Forest did, and only had four games land in Quadrant 4. The remaining record for Xavier is 14-13. A tough record to stomach when compared to other teams and no high-quality away wins (upper half of seed list). They had three losses that were Quad 2B or worse: The Butler game yesterday and both DePaul and St. John’s at Home. The Musketeers did get one road win at a tournament team - Creighton to go along with Q2 road wins at Butler and DePaul. The Musketeers won a total of five games against tournament-worthy teams, which is much stronger than Wake Forest. They lost a total of four games to non-tournament teams. So in my view, you can still see Xavier get selected. But my very last team in and a good week from Dayton or Indiana or others or any bid thief sends them to the NIT.
THURSDAY - ON TAP
Thursday of Championship Week is so special and critical. The selection committee has now been meeting for over 24 hours and Thursday really represents the last guaranteed chance to make a statement. The closer to Sunday we get, the less likely that anything will change with the committee voting unless there is a major upset or shakeup. This applies to seeding mainly. The selection process is still carefully looked at thru the weekend for the 36 at-large selections.
For the Bubble, Wyoming is still in the first four today. They play UNLV, and we will have live coverage for you!
In the event, UNLV wins - I believe Wyoming will be on thin ice. But perhaps remain above Xavier. That will be interesting to compare if we land there. The other element is the Rebels themselves. UNLV along with Utah State and Fresno State are really talented enough to win this entire tournament and take a bid away. Clearly, that would hurt Wyoming dearly. UNLV is playing hot now as well, just a ton of intrigue going into this game for bracket lovers.
The Indiana Hoosiers play Michigan. A Wolverines team who is likely safe now after another crucial road win last weekend at Ohio State. Indiana likely needs to not only beat Michigan but also Illinois to reach the field. The reason? IU is just 11-12 when you take away Quad 4. None of those results will reach Quad 3. So I believe they need to get at least to a .500 record (13-13) and to do that they need two wins.
Notre Dame will take on Virginia Tech. This adds some real intrigue as the Irish are feeling a tiny bit better after the Wake Forest/Xaver saga. Irish do want to get this win to ensure selection. For Virginia Tech, they can actually add a quality win against a tourney-level team. The Hokies can get a little more of a look with a win tomorrow, however, I feel they are still pretty far away at this stage.
Creighton takes on Marquette. Interestingly, this is a huge relief for the Jays. They will not have the risk of losing to a non-tournament team and should get in regardless of the result. However, a trip to Dayton could definitely be in order if Creighton loses early here.
The Notre Dame Fighting Irish need to beat Virginia Tech in order to feel this good again and ensure a bid.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2021-22 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken)
