MONDAY RECAP
The biggest headline belongs to West Virginia, who rallied to pick up its best road win of the season at Iowa State last night. The win puts the Mountaineers back on the good side of the bubble. Once WV is in the field, they are well positioned for a decent seed and likely to avoid the First Four in Dayton due to outstanding performance measurements backed up by a mostly solid resume (minus the subpar Quadrant records).
Next, was Nevada falling by a considerable amount at Wyoming. The Pack also were hurt by New Mexico’s sudden loss against San Diego State on Saturday, because Nevada owns two wins over New Mexico - who for now is a non-tournament team. That leaves Nevada with two home wins against the field, SDSU, and Boise State. When compared to Boise State, the Pack do have the edge in Q1 results, but because two of the four are against the non-tourney Lobos, I believe you need more layers. That is where the Broncos really begin to shine. In the Top 2A for example, Boise State is 8-4, compared to Nevada’s 5-6. The Broncos’ win over Texas A&M happened on a neutral court and they add the home win vs. Nevada for their equal total of two NCAA-level wins. All other records favor Boise State and so do the metrics. Nevada has fewer bad losses. They both are 11-seeds with the major difference being Nevada is now a forecasted First Four team.
Baylor handled Oklahoma State on the road despite a late rally by the Cowboys. The Bears just keep stacking wins, with or without Keyontae George. For OK State - the losses are outweighing the wins at this point and they have a crucial finale at Texas Tech. A much-needed win for at-large hopes.
North Carolina was the last team in the field yesterday and holds that position still after collecting a road win at Florida State. Heels are still right on the edge and likely need to beat Duke this weekend.
New At-Large teams today represented below in the Field of 68:
West Virginia (11-Seed)
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2022-23 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely, Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken)
FIRST FOUR OUT:
Wisconsin
Oklahoma State
Utah State
Michigan
NEXT FOUR OUT:
New Mexico
Charleston
North Texas
Clemson
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