By Rocco Miller
Who sleeps in May? We certainly don’t. There are several basketball games to schedule for 2026-27, and NOW we’ve got to put a field together in baseball. How fun!
Bracketeer has you covered this week. We plan to provide daily updates to the field beginning on Thursday morning. Be sure to check the Inside The Bracket tab for the latest forecasts from now until Selection Monday.
A wild week is upon us in the oftentimes chaotic College Baseball world. Unlike hoops, stunners in Baseball’s ultimate decision week, with automatic bids on the line, the committee cares about these games tremendously. So much to appreciate within less than a single week.
The DSR has been added to NCAA Team Sheets to assist the committee with a team strength metric, similar to KenPom or Torvik in College Basketball. The KPI and almighty RPI remain as resume-based sorting tools. For decades, the RPI has established thresholds in baseball on hosting, Top 8 seeds, selections, etc. Now, with an extra element in play, it will be interesting to see how things deviate from historic criteria.
If that wasn’t enough, the seeding process has changed. At least if you are a 2-seed. The Top 32 is somewhat on an S-Curve now. In groups of four, each 2-seed will be aligned with a balanced one-seed. So the 13-16 national seeds will have a corresponding 17-20 national seed coming to town as a stiff test in regional play. That process repeats until we get to the 29-32 group, which will head to the top four hosts in the country. I personally like the larger variety that this format offers in certain cases. The regionals can feel somewhat similar each year. Now, I think you can play pretty much anywhere and see a different type of opponent early in the tournament.
Behind the scenes, a field has been built by yours truly every week down the home stretch of the 2026 season. My interest level has expanded now into hourly RPI check-ups, several team comps, and strong committee member considerations within each selection and slot.
LAYING THE CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK GROUNDWORK
Several components will help determine the 35 teams selected as at-large teams. Several SEC and ACC teams know they are in and are playing for positioning. Many others are looking to get hot this week and come up from below 50th today to snatch a spot away.
Across nearly every conference tournament, we can see surprises come in all shapes and sizes, which will shake up our daily field.
Each projection this week will shift to the top-rated unbeaten team within each conference tournament. So even if the 1-seed remains in the loser’s bracket, the projection here will be updated to reflect the team still unblemished.
This forecast approach gives a unique look at how each forecast differs with a variety of projected champs until Sunday, based on performance this week. It also helps keep my process of simulating the committee discussions in a regular state of adjusting and open-mindedness.
Yale will be in the Field following its Ivy Tournament Title clinching win on Sunday. Congrats to Yale!
2026 Ivy Tournament Champs - Yale.
There are 28 more conference tournaments on the horizon or wrapping up. The Patriot League Title Series is still ongoing, with Holy Cross one win away (vs. Bucknell) from punching just its second baseball ticket to the NCAAs since 1978. They had the same opportunity last season, before losing games two and three to Army. Let’s see if the Crusaders can finally break through today or tomorrow.
Let’s cut to the chase. These 28 conference tournaments, I believe, can be categorized into three columns:
One-Bid League Tourneys
Serious Bid Thief Tourneys
Heavy-Bid (3 or more) Tourneys with major host/bubble implications
ONE-BID TOURNAMENTS
The America East, ASUN, Atlantic-10, Big East, Horizon, Ivy (Yale), MAAC, Missouri Valley, Mountain West, NEC, OVC, Patriot, Southland, SWAC, Summit, WCC, and WAC have all been deemed one-bid leagues. These leagues all have varying formats to pay attention to. But regardless, they are only sending one team into the field.
I like both SEMO from the OVC and Gonzaga from the WCC; however, I do not foresee an at-large path. SEMO has a 38 RPI, which is impressive. The Redhawks have a single bye as the OVC 3-seed; the format would still require two losses if SEMO is within the at-large pool instead of OVC Tourney Champs. SEMO does not have a Q1 win at all, and will not get one this week. Too many spots will likely be gobbled at that point in the week, and simply will make the Redhawks an afterthought to the committee.
Gonzaga’s issue is that they had opportunities and lost series to Oklahoma and Texas State in their two cracks at greatness, and also dropped series at Creighton, Minnesota, and Hawai’i in non-conference. All of them were played on the road, which is helpful, but they really needed a series win in there somewhere. Lastly, a one-off game at Oregon was also a loss. Today, it’s a dominant conference record of 22-5 that could maybe get GU discussed. But with an RPI of 49, it will tank further with a loss this week, or god forbid, two losses.
HIGH POINT AND CAMPBELL HAVE A SLIGHT PULSE
High Point has worked its way up to 41 in the RPI and has a massive road series win at Florida to go along with a split with Wake Forest. The major issues are seven Quad 4 losses, including a home series loss to Longwood, which really hurts. They also lost a one-off game to Campbell, in the event these two teams get compared. Still, the road series win at Florida is so huge that I have to keep HPU on the consideration board if they fall at the Big South Tournament.
A potential committee note on HPU— Craig Keilitz, the executive director of the American Baseball Coaches Association, serves as a liaison between the coaches and the various NCAA baseball-related committees. Now, Keilitz, it is presumed, will have a seat at the table when this oversight committee meets. This should be viewed as a win for the coaches, who often feel like they have little to no representation on the committees. Keilitz served as AD at High Point from 2009-2014, FWIW.
Campbell took the CAA by storm, going an amazing 26-4. The Camels also held their own against top-notch competition, going 5-4 in their nine chances against Top 55 RPI teams. They beat Coastal Carolina, High Point, and ECU at home. While also winning at N.C. State in mid-week action. Eight total losses in Quad 4 could be the killer, or the 58 RPI. FWIW, the DSR tool has Campbell at 46th, which is a higher ranking than several stellar mid-majors. I like Campbell more than High Point entering the week
THE UNIQUE CASE OF KENT STATE
Kent State enters the MAC Tournament as the 2-seed behind Miami University. The Golden Flashes 24-9 record was terrific, but ultimately a home series loss to the RedHawks (25-8) was the difference in the 11-week MAC race. Kent State may be stuck at 52nd in the RPI, but they have two crucial positives going for them if the season ended today.
A series win at Tennessee. The Vols finished strong in SEC play,, and the early-season result has aged wonderfully for Kent State. Only High Point in this range of teams can boast a better road series win at the top of its resume.
Randale L. Richmond. Need I say more? Kent State’s AD is on the baseball committee and has the chance to really influence this theoretically narrow decision. In 2025, the SELA resume was not as strong as Kent State’s at the top. However, SELA AD Jay Artigues was the Chairman, and SELA was the first team out on the selection show. Kent State has an even stronger case with an SEC-level road series in hand.
Despite all of this deep info and potential boost to Kent State’s hopes, the games played in Avon, Ohio, this week at the MAC Tournament should inform us whether Kent State belongs or not. The final spot in today’s field narrowly went to Kent State over Troy or Texas State based on these factors.
SERIOUS BID THIEF ALERTS
These are the MOST important conference tournaments that will impact “bracket math”. I’ve got five identified as absolute must-watch for the highest likelihood of bid theft:
American (Three straight years of bid thieves!)
Big West
CUSA
SoCon
Sun Belt
The American Conference Tournament features a double-bye structure for the co-champions UTSA and East Carolina. Both squads have sliding RPIs down the stretch, but ECU maintains a strong DSR, and the Pirates’ AD Jon Gilbert is on the selection committee. So I am just going to assume ECU is in regardless of performance. UTSA needs to play well, there is no doubt. The rest of the field is fascinating. UAB crumbled down the stretch and now has to win it all. The 3-seed Rice is on fire and may be the pick to win this. All eight teams have talent, should be fiery in Clearwater all week.
The Big West is either a one-bid league with UC Santa Barbara dancing alone, or one of these other contenders steps up this week and takes a bid. UCSB has top-notch pitching, so it won’t be easy. The 2-seed Cal Poly comes in as co-champions and hot.
Hawai’i squeaked into the field of five in Irvine. A compelling pitcher for the Rainbow Warriors, with Isaiah Magdaleno completely dominating in his starts down the stretch. How will Hawai’i use him in this bracket structure? They have to beat CSUF to keep playing, but what if they pulled that off and we got to see Magdaleno face future top pick Jackson Flora, in a potential semifinal game. Intensity at the Big West Tournament will be high, regardless, as UC San Diego and Cal State Fullerton have been pests all season long.
If there were an annual award for The Most Interesting Conference Tournament in the World, then Conference USA is the award winner for 2026 in my book. The Jacksonville State Gamecocks took the league by storm. Missouri State was consistently near the Top 25 in RPI all year. And Liberty won the head-to-head series over JSU and added a potpourri of quality wins in the mid-week. So, entering a massive week of pool play, all three are sitting on the good side of the bubble. The Flames are most at risk at 36 in the RPI. They will at least need to put a win or two on the board, I believe.
Dallas Baptist finished strong by also beating JSU in a series, making the Pats a big threat to win the auto bid. DBU does not currently own a Q1 win and has an RPI stuck in the 70’s, so its all or nothing this week for this proud program. Louisiana Tech has been arguably hotter down the stretch and has the better wins with four in Q1, but too many low-end losses have the Bulldogs fighting for their lives this week. Those who follow this league closely would not be shocked to see any of these five win it all in Kennesaw this weekend. And that brings us to Kennesaw State, which is hosting this event in its new ballpark. It is easy to overlook KSU’s 25-26 record, but when you dive in, you will see they have at least one win against CUSA’s finest and wins at Georgia and over Mercer. So this team is capable of committing bid thievery this weekend.
The SoCon got extremely interesting thanks to the week that Mercer just gave us. Winning at powerhouse Georgia Tech and road sweeping a Top 60 ETSU club completely launched the Bears’ RPI to the Moon. Now sitting at 26th in the country, it’s increasingly difficult to imagine a field not including Mercer. There is potential scrutiny on the horizon, however. Mercer has just the one Q1 win, and every series win is against teams at Troy’s (bubble out currently) level and below. Mercer’s best path is another hot showing this week and then hope the RPI stays Top 30 or better. Then, it will be difficult for the committee to exclude this scorching hot ball club.
The double-elimination format puts Mercer at some risk in its first couple of games. Should Mercer fall, there are several quality clubs eager to take this automatic bid and contribute to shrinking the bubble. Games will be played in Greenville, SC.
Life in the Sun Belt is always juicy when it comes to College Baseball. The Southern Miss Golden Eagles are an unbelievably consistent program. Once again, they found a way to win the league and look very strong for a host, and they have selection committee support from USM AD Jeremy McClain. If things go well in Montgomery this week, I think they have all of the pieces in place to be a Top 8. Which would be a program pinnacle.
Coastal Carolina finally had a string of good fortune catch up with them. The Chanticleers are dealing with injuries and dropped the final regular-season series to Louisiana. They have dropped out of hosting position, and it appears the only path back is a run to the title this week, and ideally an elite win over Southern Miss somewhere along the way.
The trio of Louisiana, Troy, and Texas State has been fascinating to track. The Cajuns have the RPI (40) and KPI (33) edge over the others. Troy won series over both teams head-to-head, and Texas State has some interesting elements that impress. For this moment, ULL goes into the field as one of the final teams in. Troy and Texas State are two of the first teams out. This bracket is fascinating, with the conference tournament representing the last chance for these teams to make a statement. When you factor in bid steals, there is a good chance that they all get left out. No pressure, Cajuns, Trojans, and Bobcats!
POWER LEAGUE BIDS
This section is designated for the big three leagues. The SEC, ACC, B1G, and Big XII. They will have more influence (by a mile) than the other 25 leagues on bid allocation.
SEC - 11 teams are locked in (Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia, Ole Miss, Mississippi State, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Texas A&M). Those six squads you see in bold are locks to be a host. I believe we will see at least seven hosts on Selection Monday (maybe more). The battle between Mississippi State, Arkansas, and previously Ole Miss (lost already to Mizzou, and locked into a regional 2-seed position) should play itself out in Hoover. If two of these teams go deep into the single-elimination week, we could have up to eight SEC hosts in the regionals.
Kentucky lost to Vanderbilt in an intriguing opener. Kentucky’s loss puts the ‘Cats in a situation where they finished at 13-18 and just 2-8 in SEC series results on the year. It’s a precarious moment at Kentucky, even if the DSR (29 at press time) and RPI (36 at press time) say that UK is going to be okay. Anxious five days ahead in Lexington.
Vanderbilt has an interesting road now. With 15 SEC wins, they’d typically be safe. But not this season. The Commodores were 3-7 vs. the SEC in weekend series results. And have a handful of ugly non-conference losses. Vandy is still floating around 70th in RPI and 40th in DSR. The latest KPI says 55th and climbing. Hard to imagine that one win in Hoover was enough, regardless. The Florida matchup looms large on Wednesday.
The story all year in the ACC has been the dominance of Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets pummeled Boston College on the road last weekend to finish an incredible 25-5 in league play and the top-ranked team per the DSR in the nation. G-Tech will be a top two seed come Monday, and an angle exists to be #1 overall if UCLA is stunned in Omaha this week.
The bubble picture got really interesting with N.C. State losing in the ACC Tournament’s first game against 16-seeded Duke. The Pack finished 14-17 in ACC games. Here is a glance at their bubblicious team sheet:
N.C. State has already tumbled down to #49 following the loss in RPI. Home series wins over BC and Miami are the hope for Pack fans, in addition to some mid-week quality victories. Quite honestly, this is a team that could quickly be removed from the field if bubble teams emerge or some bids evaporate.
Virginia Tech may be the other team to watch this week. Because the Hokies’ strongest series win is against N.C. State, which has its own issues. The Hokies take on a Notre Dame team on Wednesday that has nothing to lose, increasing the danger level for missing the field.
Florida State has hopes for a Top 8 selection with a strong week. AD Michael Alford is of course the Selection Chairman. Perhaps FSU’s biggest issue is losing to Florida three times, making it really tough to pass the Gators in the selection pecking order. The oth er issue was getting swept at Stanford, but FSU has put in some good work down the stretch to finish strong.
Kansas Baseball has done the unthinkable and won the Big XII for the first time, and it is the first league title of any kind since the Jayhawks won the Big Eight in 1949. Head coach Dan Fitzgerald and his staff have brought the program from last place in the Big 12 to first place in four seasons. KU also picked up two wins over Nebraska and won big road series at Oklahoma State and Cincinnati on the road. The Jayhawks were swept late in the season by West Virginia at home, jeopardizing the KU dream of hosting a regional. They will need some wins this week to secure a host spot.
West Virginia is the new belle of the Big XII ball. The Mountaineers came within one game of winning the league, thanks to that stellar sweep in Lawrence. West Virginia has a road series win at Liberty, boosting its Quad 1 (8-4) win count. WVU looks to be in good shape to host, but also needs to show up well this week at Globe Life Field.
Oklahoma State, UCF, and Cincinnati enter the week as solid 2-seeds. Cincinnati would become interesting with a run to the title because the Bearcats already have a great RPI at 22, yet the DSR tool has Cincy buried in the 30’s. The Cowboys are fans of the DSR (currently #22) and can improve their 29th-ranked RPI, so they are a team to watch as well. Arizona State is a fringe 2-seed, but with a 19-11 conference record, the Sun Devils are in the field firmly.
TCU has to hold on this week. The Horned Frogs sit at 40th in the RPI and will play a high-stakes game against Kansas State today. Frogs played five total series against NCAA Tournament-level opposition and went 0-5 (UCLA, WVU, UCF, OK State, ASU). They did win one-off games over Arkansas and Kansas, and clearly scheduled well. Will be anxious for TCU without some progress this week in nearby Arlington.
Big Ten Baseball is here to stay. The addition of the western teams and the re-emergence of Nebraska have the conference in a position to send four really strong teams into regionals, and perhaps a fifth team can play its way in this week.
UCLA has been historically dominant, finishing 28-2 and being ranked #1 in the nation for nearly the duration of the season. Oregon battled throughout the home stretch to play a war with UCLA and lose the series in an intense battle. Ducks clipped both Nebraska and USC in critical series wins. If they end up stuck on the host bubble, that head-to-head series win over the Huskers becomes a major feather in the cap for Oregon.
Nebraska has been surging. However, the Huskers have a Kansas (0-2) and Oregon (series loss) problem—currently two of the primary contenders for these final host slots. On the flipside of that outlook is the fact that Nebraska has played its way into the Top 10 of the RPI, and they have a bye in this event, limiting the downside of playing this week. Lastly, the big edge of playing in Omaha for the B1G Tournament gives Nebraska a realistic goal of winning the automatic bid and making the committee consider them for a Top 8 host. Fasci
Michigan is on the bubble squarely. They opened the tournament with a win over Rutgers and now face Washington tonight with two cracks at advancing to the quarterfinals. A home series win over Oregon continues to give Michigan hope for a bid. Michigan also lost to both of the MAC hopefuls — Miami-Ohio and Kent State, and was swept at home by RPI #83 Ohio State late in the year.
FORECAST - BASED ON WHAT IS KNOWN
We made it to the finish line! All 29 auto bids and league tournaments have been categorized. You have a much more organized view of what is at stake this week. Tournaments are likely to create chaos. Host spots and Top 8’s still have room to shift. Let’s enjoy.
Today’s Forecast is here.
REGIONAL FORECAST
LAST FOUR IN
TCU
Louisiana
Kent State
Troy
FIRST FIVE OUT
N.C. State
Michigan
Texas State
Vanderbilt
Louisiana Tech