Can you believe the first conference tournament will begin next Thursday, February 25th? Thats right. The Horizon League will kick off perhaps our longest “Championship Week” ever by hosting the 5 thru 12 seeds participating in play-in rounds. The league wisely added a buffer in case they need additional time for make up games. I don’t know that I’m ready for teams seasons to start ending so quickly, but it always happens so fast. All we can do is enjoy the ride.
BRACKET REVEAL RECAP
This past Saturday, the actual Selection Committee formalized their Top 16 teams and had Dan Gavitt alongside Mitch Barnhardt (Committee Chair) answer a few questions about the selections. Here at Bracketeer.org, we did pretty well. Had the Top 16 all identified correctly, and mainly thought more of Missouri than Oklahoma. Not a major miss there, as they were swapped between three and four seed lines. Here is how it went down:
A main takeaway for me is that Oklahoma is strong in top-end wins (over Bama, at Texas and now adding at West Virginia). The Sooners also have important home wins over Kansas and West Virginia to go along with no bad losses. But OU is just 5-5 overall against the top quadrant and 6-5 against the top two. Missouri had wins at Tennessee and at Arkansas, to go along with big wins over Illinois, Bama and Oregon (neutral). Yet the Tigers have slipped against non-tournament foes (both Mississippi schools and Auburn). This tells me that the committee not only likes the top-end wins but they are also pay attention perhaps to who you lose to.
Houston and Virginia came in 8th and 9th respectively, same as where we had them. UH is lighter on opportunities and lost twice to non-tourney foes (Tulsa and ECU on the road). The Cougars do have strong metrics though and wins over Texas Tech on neutral court, a win over Boise State and a sweep of SMU. Virginia was missing, and still is missing a Quad 1A win to anchor with. The Cavs best win is at Clemson which is in 1B currently and they have a single non-tournament foe loss to San Francisco. UVA also is slightly below Houston in most metrics as well, and two games behind the Cougars in total record vs. top three quadrants. All of this was just enough, to keep Houston on the two-seed line.
How all of this impacts team comparisons down bracket remains somewhat of a mystery, but at least we have more information to work with than before. Besides, five of the 16 have already lost since the show. Other key confirmations where road wins and overall principles will be unaffected this season, despite no crowds and varying extremes in schedules/games played. Full speed ahead to March!
BRACKET NOTES - Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.
- Seed lines five thru eight went through a shake-up. I think USC is at a point where the need to be above teams like Kansas and Virginia Tech, because the Trojans are winning at a higher clip - especially on the road. And those wins matter. Arkansas picked up the perfect win for a team that had no bad on the resume, but was lacking a tourney-caliber win. Not only did the Hogs get that win, they got it on the road. In turn, the Razorbacks shot past the entire bubble picture and on to the eight-seed line.
- Loyola-Chicago took a leap of faith over the weekend, despite splitting at Drake. Allow me to explain, as this is an area often confused with the selection and seeding process. As of Friday, the Ramblers were my first team out. My view was that the resume needed a strong win to anchor with. Loyola has that now, and everything about their predictive metrics fly off the shelf. Ramblers are up to number 37 on the big board and can probably afford another loss, depending on who its against and by how much. Also, we have made the swift move to call the Ramblers the official MVC leader now. That leaves Drake hanging on to a spot in the play-in game.
- The final spot was really difficult between St. Bonaventure and UConn. I think there is a case to be made for each. Bonnies have a “clean” resume right now, no losses to frown on outside of the top two quadrants. UConn can’t boast that, but the Huskies do have better road wins and the injury case with Bouknight. We will stick with St. Bonaventure until further notice, but this is really tight. Also, remember that Utah State is currently stealing an at-large bid away. So if that were not happening, we would have room for both (not likely). Keep in mind, an average of 2.4 at-large bids per year are stolen during Championship Week. So hoping for none or one is typically unrealistic.
- New quality metrics teams are entering as Conference leaders today. Between Wright State, UCSB, and Colgate, we have a trio of talented rosters. If these three get in the tournament, entertainment value increases and 4/5 seeds are in for a scare or worse.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
A10 - VCU
Big West - UC Santa Barbara
CAA - James Madison
CUSA - Western Kentucky
Horizon - Wright State
MVC - Loyola-Chicago
NEC - Mount St. Mary’s
Patriot - Colgate
Summit - North Dakota State
Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (MWC, Utah State)
FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: UConn, Richmond, Saint Louis, St. John's
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Ole Miss, Maryland, Georgia Tech, SMU
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