BRACKET NOTES - Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.
- Oklahoma has temporarily benefited with the Houston loss to Wichita State. The Sooners, West Virginia and Iowa are now positioned above Houston in seeding order. OU comes in as the final two-seed today and matched up with Southland leaders, Sam Houston State, which is a fun Southwest flavored opener. Houston is still fairly safe as a three-seed and have a stronger resume than Virginia at this point. Today, the Cougars draw a matchup against Colgate.
- Florida State made another big statement at home on Monday by beating Virginia. The only thing holding FSU back from getting higher than any of the Big 12 teams above them, is a lack of information on road games. FSU has the nice win at Louisville, but are just 1-2 overall. Until they can demonstrate a bit more away from home, it will be hard to reach the nirvana of the top eight or so.
- USC continues to steamroll through the Pac-12. The main thing holding the Trojans back is a lack of top-end opportunities.
- Maryland is back in the field after sweeping Nebraska. The Terps are now two games over .500 vs. D1 competition, but also have Rutgers on Sunday. Makes their case unique. Maryland has the top-end wins to skyrocket past the bubble in terms of seeding. You’ll notice they are a nine-seed today because of that. But they are on thin ice for selection still. A clear delineation between selection and seeding. In other words, Terps fans should not worry about Maryland playing in the First Four. They are either in with a nice seed or entirely out. Remaining schedule is favorable, so hopes and expectations are high here.
- Minnesota is the team that needs to be really looked at hard. The committee will always value what you do away from home, and selection committee Chairman Mitch Barnhardt confirmed this year is no different on the air. The Gophers are 0-8 on the road with only one true road game left, at Penn State in early March. Trying to simulate the discussion in the committee room about the Gophers is a fun thought. I think you can make strong cases for inclusion (wins over two number-one seeds and only team to beat Michigan thus far and over Iowa at the Barn), so the debate would be hot and heavy in that room. I see the Gophers still being invited for now, but very thin ice - for completely different reasons than Maryland.
- The first eight teams out: UConn, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis, Utah State, Richmond, Wichita State (in as AAC leader today), St. John’s and Ole Miss all have an argument right now to be included. I still believe Stanford’s resume with their ridiculous journey this year is still a notch above these eight in terms of achievement. So the Cardinal remain in the field.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
America East - Vermont
American - Wichita State
Mountain West - Boise State
NEC - Wagner
Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (AAC, Wichita State)
FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: UConn, St. Bonaventure, Saint Louis, Utah State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Richmond, St. John's, Ole Miss, Georgia Tech
THE DRAW - HEADLINERS
(8) Louisville vs. (9) Indiana. Regional rivals, tons of history.
First Four: Drake vs. North Carolina. Cinderella type story vs. Blue Blood program for a spot in the main bracket.
(5) USC vs. (12) Belmont. Evan Mobley vs. Nick Musczynski in the paint. Andy Enfield coached in the same conference (ASUN) as Belmont back in 2011-12.
(4) Florida State vs. (13) Wright State. Battle of two teams who can completely catch fire.
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