Happy Tuesday everybody!
College Basketball delivered perhaps its most surprising Saturday to date. With a handful of teams winning that had 20% or less chance to win pregame, according to Ken Pomeroy. Namely, Kansas State. The Wildcats had a 5% chance to win at Hilton Coliseum, per the model, and not only achieved the win but outright dominated the Cyclones.
The Big XII delivered two stunners on Saturday with Texas Tech stunning Houston despite multiple ejections. The Red Raiders had less than a 20% analytical chance of winning the game, yet pulled off an amazing road win. They are the highest riser, and have achieved 3-seed status thanks to a perfect 5-0 true road record anchored by the Houston and BYU road wins. Texas Tech is the only team to win at BYU this year, and the only team to win at Houston this year. If that remains, what an impressive pair of bullet points for a resume.
I had several thoughts on at-large level teams in the bracket during Monday’s Fielding The 68 Show.
Here is the full episode:
MONDAY NIGHT RECAP
Iowa State is back in the news following a drubbing at the Phog, in a 69-52 setback. Back-to-back blowout losses to the Cyclones have changed the tone around where they stand. After further analysis, I feel confident that the ISU resume is not quite where Texas A&M or Houston is. This pushed ISU to the best of the 3-seeds for the forecast. Quite stunning for a team that was a one-seed a few days ago. They will get some much-needed rest now:
Kansas earns a third high-quality win. That did enough to win out in the comparison with Michigan State late in the evening. Kansas moves up to a 3-seed, Spartans are the highest of the 4-seeds.
Heading into Monday, you may have noticed that Pittsburgh was the last projected team in the field. It was not an easy choice because Pitt, Georgia, and UCF all had different qualities to like and dislike. The Panthers made all of the forecasting struggles disappear in two poor hours of basketball, resulting in a lop-sided home loss to Virginia. Knights somehow make their way back into the bracket for now.
McNeese and Norfolk State survived crazy endings to stay on top of the Southland and MEAC respectively. The Spartans Brian Moore, Jr. had this miraculous buzzer-beater to beat N.C. Central:
Southern survived in OT against Jackson State to remain a perfect 9-0 in SWAC play. Northern Colorado remains in charge of the Big Sky thanks to a rally in the second half to eventually bury Idaho State.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: Arizona State, SMU, Ohio State, Indiana
NEXT TEAMS OUT: USC, UC San Diego, Pittsburgh, Xavier
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8