BUBBLE ISSUES
Today’s delay is largely due to a current crisis within the bubble picture. There are flaws everywhere. As Thursday night ended, I knew there was a high likelihood of taking Ohio State into the field following the Buckeye home win over Maryland, despite still being under .500 in games that mean something (non-Q4). That is because they are the only team that has won on the road at Mackey Arena, the seed list at the top says that it’s the sixth-best road win money can buy. Plus the wins over Kentucky and Texas away from home provide supplemental evidence to the committee’s favorite quote. “Who did you play? Where did you play? How did you do?”
What I did not anticipate was a surplus of bubble illnesses. Teams like Arkansas, USC, Xavier, and others are a win or more away from .500 and do not have a road win quite as heavy as Purdue like the Buckeyes do. The Razorbacks are the closest but Kentucky has endured multiple home losses. Despite the supreme nature that provided John Calipari his dream revenge triumph this past Saturday, it doesn’t pack the same punch that Ohio State’s win at Purdue packed.
Another issue is there are no projected bid thieves. It would be a surprise if none occurred next month.
With SMU, they have such a clear divide in results. Performing amazingly well in all games vs. non-NCAA forecasted squads. Yet, falling every time to the NCAA-level teams. There is no stamp of approval within the win set yet, despite the very impressive 8-2 road/neutral record.
Vanderbilt has its own special ailment with its non-conference strength of schedule at 329 of 364 teams, they don’t have a lot of hope to be selected if this close to the bubble. Its best road win remains LSU, which is solid but its not convincing enough to be “safe.”
San Francisco joins the party after snapping its 11-game losing streak against Saint Mary’s. It was a massive milestone for the Dons, who remain perfect at home. The Dons’ best road win is still Pepperdine, deep in Quad 3, and the best neutral win is over Quad 3 Loyola-Chicago. The Dons have a chance for stronger consideration, should they win at LMU tomorrow.
UCF, Arizona State, and Pittsburgh have clearly taken on too much water to continue floating on the good side of the bubble.
Indiana and North Carolina? Both are at least two good wins away.
Ahh! Santa Clara. We love the Broncos! The KPI has them #47. They are the ONLY team to win at McNeese and Gonzaga. So much to love! The problem is four subpar losses and the other models have punished the Broncos. I independently am fascinated by all of this, but I cannot expect the committee to agree on them being included.
Still searching for two teams at this point!
UC San Diego keeps resurfacing…BYU keeps resurfacing.
The Cougars took a loss at home to Arizona in a big spot earlier this week. Plenty of reasons exist to leave them out now. However, there is nothing deliberately leaving BYU out. So they are they stay in for today.
And for the final spot in the field, we’re going to be bold and take the Tritons. This team is one of two to win at Utah State this season, and of course, making all kinds of history in its first season eligible for the dance. The biggest issue with the choice is that after the Utah State road win, all other wins don’t show up until Quad 3. UCSD likely needs a win at UC Irvine tomorrow in round two of the Big West Showdown regardless. Congrats for today, Big West!
Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: Vanderbilt, Arkansas, SMU, San Francisco
NEXT TEAMS OUT: UCF, Arizona State, USC, Xavier
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