WEEKEND SUMMARY - UPPER ECHELON
Programming Note: I will be on the FIELDING THE 68 Live Show later today at 5PM ET, be sure to tune in for a deeper breakdown on the majority of at large level teams. You should be able to watch it right from here:
The story at the top, is the Florida Gators. The Gators critical win at Auburn has turned the race for a 1-seed into a five-horse race. Florida tightened the gap significantly with the strong group of four we had on Friday - Auburn/Duke/Alabama/Tennessee.
Duke also fell to Clemson on the road, and they are now coming up short in direct comps against Alabama.
That left Duke, Tennessee, and Florida for the final two 1-Seeds. Ultimately the heavy road win volume for the Vols and the Duke’s dominant performance-rankings kept them both up there at this point. Florida heads to Mississippi State tomorrow in another quality road opportunity, with a chance to impress once again.
Texas A&M left no doubt that they belong as a 2-seed. The Aggies impressed in another high quality road victory at Missouri.
Arizona exacted revenge on Texas Tech to split the season series. Both of these teams are performing at a high level, and are secure in 3-seed territory until further notice.
St. John’s earned the road win at UConn and it absolved remaining work the Red Storm had yet to exhibit. A road win over the field was needed to get firmly into protected seed range. Now its even better than expected as SJU won out on direct comparisons with teams like Kansas, Michigan State, and Wisconsin. That allowed the Red Storm to move all the way to a 3-seed.
WEEKEND SUMMARY - TROUBLING BUBBLE
I was at UC San Diego’s momentous road win at UC Irvine over the weekend, and one can hope that a committee member was there too or perhaps tuned in on ESPNU. The Tritons took a two-point halftime lead and ballooned into an 18-point road win over a Top 10 defense in America. UCSD now has two high level road wins, which is vital for bubble tiebreaker decisioning. UC Irvine remains in the field as the projected Big West AQ. UCSD was the last team in on Friday, and they will remain in the field as an at-large.
Wake Forest did what they needed to do, sweeping the Bay Area road trip. Demon Deacons are pretty clearly in at this point especially considering what the rest of the options on the bubble look like.
One kind of mess comes from power conference carnage. Ohio State and Texas keep yo-yoing back and forth with a .500 meaningful record or a couple games short (which they both are today). Buckeyes have seven games left, and need to win at least four of them. Their next three are at home. I still really like this squad and their pieces, so they could/should be right back into the field with a win over Washington on Wednesday.
As for Texas, I am less optimistic but the SEC provides nonstop opportunities. Same holds true for Arkansas. Hogs narrowly fell to Alabama, but its another sign that they’ve corrected a lot of early season struggles. More opportunities are coming quickly.
Another kind of mess is trying to sort out SMU, San Francisco, VCU, Boise State, and Santa Clara. The headaches begin with the ponies. I cannot believe they landed as the last team in today, but at the end of the day they are 8-2 in road/neutral games included a couple of true road wins in Q2. Which is better than San Francisco’s road damage thus far. The Dons win at Q3 LMU on Saturday helped, but still more work to do on that end of things. Dons have the Saint Mary’s home win, which is better than any team SMU has beat by a mile. SMU got the ultimate nod due to overall body of work, they’ve been perfect in games vs. non-NCAA level without a hiccup. Dons have losses to WSU, Bradley, and Santa Clara. Not bad losses in my view, but three non-NCAA teams as of now.
The surprise is VCU. The more I thought about their case to get in, the more I appreciated it. They are .500 or better at every category. The Q4 loss that hurts against Seton Hall, happened way before the Pirates had issues, and is somewhat explainable. Rams have won half of their challenging road games in the top two quads (Dayton, St. Joe’s, URI). Another road win at Loyola-Chicago is particularly interesting because it is the only Ramblers’ home loss all year. The other interesting point that VCU may want to add to its presentation is nobody has blown them out. I covered their loss at New Mexico that ended in a seven-point loss, and they played them hard. The bad loss to Seton Hall was in OT. Its worst loss, at Saint Louis, was by single digits.
San Francisco was the odd team out, but would have been the next option today. Dons are listed third on the “First Four Out” because Ohio State and Texas are likely right back into the bracket if they win during the mid-week.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2024-25 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely): The Annual Average = 2.4 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: Ohio State, Texas, San Francisco, Arkansas
NEXT TEAMS OUT: BYU, North Carolina, Santa Clara, Boise State
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @RoccoMiller8