Today’s Big Board reflects today’s bracket:
BIG BOARD
Inside the Bracket
Bracketology Big Board January 9th, 2020
1 Seed Contenders
To me it is clear that Kansas and Duke are worthy of the top two spots. But from there, it gets interesting between Baylor, SDSU, Gonzaga, and Butler. With Baylor’s victory in Lubbock over Texas Tech earlier this week, it is enough to convince me that they belong. Only one team won in Lubbock last season (Iowa State), clearly a very hard thing to accomplish. For the fourth #1 seed I am going with Gonzaga reluctantly. The Zags have showed weakness lately and the win over UNC continues to lose value and their lone loss to Michigan (by 18) contunues to look less elite. You could make a really strong argument for San Diego State here, and I am higher than most on the Aztec body of work.
2nd Tier
Smaller group of squads fit this criteria to date. The Auburn Tigers may be undefeated. but their schedule hasn’t afforded them any elite win opportunites at this point. Not to worry Tiger fans, those elite opportunities are coming. The Florida State Seminoles aren’t getting the love in the rankings yet, but they are building an excellent resume with wins at Louisville, at Florida, at Wake, neutral wins over Purdue and Tennessee. Hard to find resumes this early in the season with that many quality wins away from home, especially for a power conference team.
3rd Tier
Unlike the 2nd Tier, this list continues to grow. Seton Hall has really made a jump back up recently and is sitting comfortably in this tier today. Some may question Memphis here, but I am keeping them for the time being, as my preseason expectations were high. One more rough loss for the Tigers and they will tumble, they have a resume built more on sand than concrete.
In Safely
I like these five squads to be safely in. In Safely essentially means they have done enough resume-wise to not be at risk of taking a bad loss and being completely out of the field. Teams like BYU here out of the WCC will have additional chances at bad losses, so pay attention to that closely.
In, But Not By Much
If you enjoy long lists, this group is for you! This view serves as a nice visual of how many teams are that close to being out in the event of a bad night, especially if it happens against a bad team. The last two selections (Utah and ETSU) were very tough. I am impressed just enough with Utah’s body of work to justify selection, and ETSU barely edges out Xavier with their impressive five road wins including last night’s win over UNC-Greensboro.
BIG BOARD
Bracketology Big Board 12.06.19
Have you ever heard of way too early Bracketology? It’s real. The College Basketball universe cannot live without Bracketology in today’s landscape of technology. Even Joe Lunardi is putting out new brackets before December. Crazy, right? I have always been a firm believer as a Bracketologist, that you need to get moderately into January to have enough necessary data to evaluate any given tournament resume. So what, you say? Just give me a bracket! How bout this..I’ll compromise with you and give you the full picture, but no brackets yet!
On a near daily basis I am updating the Bracketology Big Board. The earlier in the season we are, the more teams that are in the mix for an At-Large bid. We still have tons of teams alive! The reason is because many teams have not even sniffed the meat of their schedules at this point. However, several other teams have played quality games to date, such as Florida State or San Diego State. A subset of teams give us decent data today to make projections and the rest of the teams, simply do not.. So my compromise with you is to share my up to date Big Board. Think of the well-known Todd McShay Big Board for the NFL Draft. Except we are still four months and change until Draft Day, aka Selection Sunday.
The teams below were grouped into columns based on both results and efficiency. Then their bodies of work to date and overall team outlook were compared against one another within each column.,
BIG BOARD
Seeds 1-68 represent the projected NCAA Tournament Seed List.
2019-20 Preseason Seed List
The Top Seeds (1-4)
Kansas, yes Kansas, is the projected #1 Overall Seed in this year’s bracket. Kansas has an embarassment of riches talent-wise and are projected to win the toughest league and have a strong non-conference slate. Disclaimer: Going back through the past five years of seeding, only one B1G team has received a #1 seed and that was Wisconsin in 2015 (#4 on the seed list that season). The ACC has had a #1 seed every year during that span including THREE top seeds last season. That trend continues here for the #2 overall team, UNC. Michigan State, the team largely picked first in all polls, comes in as the third #1 seed. The Florida Gators are also the 1-Line as the fourth overall team. Florida has an incredible roster in place and should dominate many of their games. However, Kentucky is picked to win the SEC Auto-Bid.
Rest of Protected Seed Summary (Teams 5-16)
Kentucky, Duke, and Gonzaga have very strong arguments to be a preseason #1 seed and they fall here for initial projections. In the next tier, I really like what I’m seeing early from Ohio State. The Buckeyes have climbed this board consistently all offseason and landed at 10 to start the season. I see Texas Tech as being pretty strong by March but may have a few struggles earlier as they break in 11 newcomers. Fortunately they do not have a strong schedule and should have just enough juice to be a protected seed. Similarly, I see Oregon getting stronger as the season goes on. They figure to get N’Faly Dante back in mid-December and may not hit their full potential until January or February.
Middle of the Field (Teams 17-40)
Purdue and Florida State look to be right in the mix for protected seeds, I have them falling just shy. In the next tier, a lot more guesswork is happening. I think Baylor and Seton Hall have a little more risk to them this season than many are giving credit to, but both are still clear tournament teams. Houston and Ole Miss are two clubs that I’m very high on compared to the national consensus. Ole Miss has two dynamite guards in Tyree and Shuler, plus have a talented supporting cast. Houston got a nice boost with the news that Quinten Grimes was immediately eligible and I see them winning the AAC Tourney which moves to the state of Texas this year. Washington and Arizona also got boosts with recent waiver decisions for former Kentucky players Quade Green (UW) and Jemarl Baker (AZ). Those two squads can feel more comfortable for now in the “In Safely” column. Creighton was a team that recently dropped to #39 overall. They had been much higher prior to the recent injuries to Epperson and Mintz. Wishing them a speedy recovery. Wichita State is a team who ended last year on a high note and gained valuable experience, I have a good inkling about the Shockers this season.
Bubble Trouble (41-46, and Knocking on the Door)
Utah State has slipped down into the First Four with the recent news of Neemias Queta being out, potentially for a while. USU will need to build their resume during these next eight weeks and need all of their stars available. I am calling for New Mexico to steal the MWC Auto-bid, since the Lobos will not be At-Large worthy. I struggled for many days between Georgetown and Michigan as the final team in the field. I think Georgetown has slightly more chemistry with Ewing, but I like Michigan’s schedule more. So I’ll take Georgetown for now. Will be interesting to look back at this in five months. Missouri and TCU have really climbed the board based on some deeper research and for the Frogs beating both Mississippi State and Washington in Scrimmage play.
The Rest (49-68)
If you saw the Part 1 of the Bracket Preview , you will understand how these picks were made. In general, I think teams from ETSU all the way through Colgate on this list have a shot at advancing and maybe even to the second weekend. My personal hope is that we see some of these teams overachieve in non-conference play so we can flirt with more potential bid theives in March and get more wide-spread participation in the NCAA Tournament.
SEED LIST 1-68
2019 Preseason Bracket Preview: Breakdown of the Multi-Bid Leagues
Home of the 2020 Final Four: Atlanta, GA
Not long ago, doing a Preseason Bracket was a cool idea, but never a must. Why try to predict something that is primarily based on performance when there are no qualified performances to date? The answer today is easier: The College Basketball community loves preseason content and team comparisons. How does my team stack up nationally? Where would we potentially travel to in March? What’s our seed? The list goes on..
With the endless amount of data available and schedule analyzing that I’ve done, it has now become more of a comprehensive exercise. Putting this together really prepares me for the season, so this has become an overall rewarding effort. In addition, the bracketing exercise itself is a valuable exercise (about 5-7 hours in length per bracket) any time of year. Looking for repeat matchups, following bracketing rules, what happens if BYU makes it and can’t play on Sundays, etc. The popularity of Bracketology increases each year and there is a lot to explore, review, and consider.
Why do these Ten leagues get so many At-large Bids these days?
Part Two of the bracket preview brings us to the Multi-Bid conferences. With the power of TV Contracts and Coaching Salaries, the very large majority of control in College Basketball resides within these ten leagues. That also translates to a lot of bids. In 2019, 35 of 36 At-Large Bids came from these ten conferences. The exception was Belmont, who had a fantastic resume but barely squeezed into the First Four. The inherit advantages for the ten leagues at the top of College Basketball is simple: more opportunities. Until the committee decides to not consider quality wins more important than a quality record, then the built-in advantage for power leagues will always be protected. The NCAA Tournament revenue model provides distribution per conference. For each tournament game in which a conference member participates, that equals one share for the conference. The more shares for the conference, the more the league will be able to reallocate to their conference members. These ten leagues today are steadfast at sending as many members to the NCAA Tournament as possible, motivated not only by success but monetarily.
Breakdown
Let’s get into these teams who are fighting to get to the dance and eventually Atlanta in April. After spending months reading, listening, and tracking personnel changes, I’ve put my best guesses for this season together. You will notice that some leagues have a different league champion than the projected Auto-Bid winner. This was done by design, as it is realistic to see this in at least a couple of conferences. With the Pac-12 and AAC appearing to be stronger this season, I am projecting four bids from each league. SEC is leading the way here with seven bids. And things are balanced between the Big XII, ACC, and Big Ten – six bids a piece. In the A-10, I am calling for Davidson to steal a bid and VCU/Dayton earn at-large slots. St. Mary’s out of the WCC, joins Utah State out of the MWC as at-large selections as well. Gonzaga and New Mexico are my picks to win the Auto-Bids. All in all, I am forecasting all 36 At-Large bids going to these ten leagues. Hopefully I am wrong and we see a few go to the other 22, but this is our starting point.
Without further ado, here is how I see the power conferences shaking out this year. We can all get a good chuckle at this come April:
Look for our complete Bracket posted later today and 1 thru 68 Seed List. Happy Hoops season!
2019 Preseason Bracket Preview: Projecting the One-Bid Leagues
Bracketology. Here we are for another ride. Year #9 for me publically breaking down brackets and working for those elusive answers from Selection Committee members. The fun of thinking through endless scenarios within the infrastructure of unbalanced College Basketball scheduling began many months ago. Now it is time to reveal these thoughts.
We begin the 2020 campaign by looking at the projected one-bid leagues. One-Bid leagues are quite possibly my favorite and most frustrating part of doing Bracket work. I believe these leagues are not only intriguing to follow but in many cases overlooked by the committee when it comes to seeding. It is hard to imagine many or any debates between teams like Colgate, Gardner-Webb, and Bradley getting a 14 or a 15 seed in the committee room for example, but that is actually a pretty big deal for those leagues and the schools itself (it also can ding guys like me on Bracket Matrix scoring). The scales have been also tipped in more recent seasons for these leagues to not be able to schedule many or any opportunities for quality wins and it is increasingly more and more difficult to send more than one team to the dance from these 22 conferences specifically. Last season we saw breakthroughs with Buffalo, Wofford, Belmont all being inside the bubble and providing a two-bid opportunity for the MAC, SoCon, and OVC respectively. Only the OVC capitalized with Murray State winning the Auto Bid. We can only hope to find three leagues in this position in 2019-20. But it is really hard to predict where they will come from.
Many of my peer bracketologists will look at these leagues very quickly, and assume “okay this team is picked first” or “this team is currently in first” and just plug them into the bracket accordingly. Admittedly, once we get into conference play I do change my projections to reflect the league champion in each league based on who has the inside track to the Conference Tournament #1 seed. It also works as an agent to recognize more programs throughout the season instead of just plugging in the same team every new bracket post.
For preseason purposes however, I believe it is more effective and thoughtful to predict both outcomes: The Regular Season Conference Champion and the Conference Tournament Champion. Not all tournaments are created equal, FAR from it. Some are on campus, some are in neutral locations and the bracket format varies tremendously from league to league. For these reasons, I have two sets of predictions and the Auto Bid winners will be applied to my upcoming Preseason Bracket. For extra fun, I’ve also added a Darkhorse team to track this year and Player of the Year and Newcomer of the Year picks for each conference.
One-Bid League Predictions:
FINAL SEED LIST - Selection Sunday 03.17.19
Bubble Breakdown and Seed List 03.11.19
Today’s bubble took some very careful analysis and interpretations of what the committee values the most in this very interesting mix of teams. Some of them, as you can tell, are very difficult to compare. The catergories below are common for trying to get a grasp on the entire selection and seeding process. One key area ommitted is wins against the field. That was done somewhat purposely for today, due to so many non-power conference teams in the mix. Here is the full breakdown and how I ranked the teams for now:
And next, here is the Full Seed List for today. You will see that the above bubble chart kicks off with #36 Washington and goes from there.
Bracket Notes and Seed List 03.05.19
Protected Seed Summary (Teams 1-16)
We saw some shuffling in the Top 8 after Tennessee manhandled a Reid Travis-less Kentucky squad, and Michigan State lost to Indiana (again). The net effect was Tennessee jumping up to the final 1-seed. The main reason for this is the real lack of bad to go along with the quality wins. The Vols do not have the quantity of big wins as UNC or Kentucky, but the Vols have really done nothing wrong. Their three losses came away from home and all against current protected seeds, its as clean of a resume as you can find. Meanwhile, the Spartans slide down to the 8th overall position, and remain a 2-seed for now.
Houston’s loss dropped them down a few spots, but they remain a 3-seed. LSU’s resume just keeps getting better after a win at Alabama. Tigers are an amazing 8-1 in true road games this year. I struggled with Kansas or Texas Tech for a 3-seed. This ultimately went to Texas Tech. I think Kansas has a better body of work to date, but the injury concern I think is enough to be debated in the committee room to push Kansas to the 4-seed line. Marquette joins them there after a surprising home loss to Creighton over the weekend. The final spot now belongs to Kansas State by a narrow margin. Another road win last night for the Wildcats against a team in the field (TCU) was enough to get them above Virginia Tech for today
Middle of the Field (Teams 17-40)
I’ve noticed Cincinnati creeping up into the 6-seed range in other brackets, however I am not ready to put them ahead of Nevada or Buffalo just yet. I am impressed with the quantity of road victories for both the Bulls and Pack to go along with strong metrics. Auburn is up to the last 7-seed after a home win against Mississippi State. The Tigers are tough to place due to a real lack of away wins. A win over Alabama in Tuscaloosa tonight can help that a bit. UCF’s win at Houston was a big time needle mover. The Knights now can back up their metrics (NET #30) a bit more and have moved to a 9-seed.
Bubble Trouble (41-49, and Knocking on the Door)
TCU lost again last night, and at home. They are slipping fast and their current roster is shorthanded with no chance for the missing players to return. TCU-Texas this weekend could be a real bubble burster for the loser. Seton Hall is also hanging by a thread after losing at Georgetown. As you’ll see by the Seed List graphic, the Big East is all over the bubble picture. The reality is we may only see one of them actually get in, and today that would barely be the Pirates.
The Rest (49-68)
This part of the bracket will become a lot more clear throughout the week. Championship Week is underway! Libscomb and Liberty both advanced to the A-Sun Semi’s last night. Tonight the much anticipated OVC Tournament kicks off with early round action, and we have several others starting as well. Colgate and Campbell won tiebreakers after their final game to suddenly steal the 1-seed in their respective conference tournaments.
SEED LIST 1-68
Bracket Notes and Seed List 02.25.19
Protected Seed Summary (Teams 1-16)
Kentucky has moved onto the 1-seed line, and fourth overall in seeding position. This was a tough decision because Michigan St. (5) now has a signature win and 11 Quadrant one victories. The difference for me was the two bad losses for the Spartans against Illinois and at home against Indiana. Of course, this was all made possible because Tennessee lost again, this time at LSU.
Houston is slowly climbing their way up the S-Curve, and they are now on Michigan’s heels. Wolverines need to hold serve to stay in the 2-seed area. The Cougars big opportunity comes in the season finale at Cincinnati, if they win that and take home the AAC tournament, it will be really hard to keep them off of the 2- seed line.
Kansas took a step backwards after falling badly to Texas Tech. They still have the nice wins from earlier this season, but there are several yellow and red flags pertaining to the current Jayhawks. Post-injury they haven’t been able to win the signature games and have a couple of bad results to boot. This could raise a lot of questions in the committee room. I have the Jayhawks now at 14th overall. Meanwhile, rival Kansas State has snuck in this week at 16th overall.
Middle of the Field (Teams 17-40)
Nevada leads things off at #17. There has been plenty of chatter about the Pack and how to seed them. On the positives side, Nevada has 12 wins away from home (tied for the most nationally). They also play in rowdy environments every where they go and I believe the committee respects this to a degree. Their NCSOS rating is better than teams like Kansas St, Iowa St, and Maryland. So given the data points to actually compare them to a power conference team, Nevada is still holding strong. The Bracket Reveal show two weeks ago had them #14 overall and this is a small deviation from that.
Villanova picked a bad time to start struggling. They’ve now lost three straight against St. John’s, Georgetown, and Xavier. No bueno. They have slipped into the 7-seed area and need to right the ship quickly.
TCU made a big leap up to the #34 spot overall after completing the season sweep of Iowa State. Horned Frogs fans can begin to sleep a little better for now.
Bubble Trouble (41-49, and Knocking on the Door)
Minnesota’s loss to Rutgers and Seton Hall’s recent funk has entered both squads into this uncomfortable danger zone. Meanwhile Florida, is passing teams like the Gophers and Pirates due to gathering a signature win at LSU. The reality is we are likely to see a few bids taken away from a couple of these teams due to conference tournament winners snagging auto bids. So if you are a bubble team in this area, there is no such thing as “safe.” The cutoff line will be very fluid during Championship Week, just as it has all season here at bracketeer.org.
The Rest (49-68)
The UC-Irvine Anteaters have not lost since the first Black and Blue Game vs. LBSU on January 16th. That is now nine wins in a row. They also have wins at Saint Mary’s and at Texas A&M to support their resume strength. UCI has played their way up to the 13-seed line and are increasingly are looking like a team you don’t want to see in the dance.
Wright State got some serious help over the weekend when already-eliminated Cleveland State stunned Northern Kentucky. This broke the tie for first in the Horizon League and has the Raiders in line to be the top seed during Motor City Madness.
SEED LIST 1-68
Bracket Notes and Seed List 02.18.19
Protected Seed Summary (Teams 1-16)
I am doing my best here to be mindful of what the committee’s Bracket Reveal show taught us all last month. It gets tougher and tougher by the day, as several of those teams have lost. And some of the next set of teams (17-25) have achieved some key results. LSU had the big win at Kentucky last week, and after Kentucky’s blowout over Tennessee at the exact same venue, LSU comes away looking the most impressive after the week.
I have Tennessee edging out Gonzaga still on the seed order, mainly becuase of the head to head victory over the Zags in Phoenix. They also each have a blowout road loss on their resume now, so that is somewhat of a wash.
Texas Tech has managed to emerge into the Top 16 for now, with 12 Quadrant 1/2 wins and no losses to teams outside of the below Top 32. The Red Raiders NET rating of 10 won’t hurt them either. Each of the 5-seeds are close, very close.
Middle of the Field (Teams 17-40)
Iowa has a geographical DREAM draw here, and that was all done not purposely, but actually by following the procedures. There are slim hopes for Hawkeye fans that the route from Des Moines to KC to Minneapolis could actually come to fruition. But if and when we see further shake ups with the two seeds for example, the dream will fade quickly. In today’s bracket, Kansas City just happened to have the only bottom half of a bracket without a Big Ten during placement, which gave the Hawkeyes the green light. As a whole, teams 15-25 are really tight right now, and you can make solid arguments against my order today for a line up or down. Today’s placement is where I think the committee would theoretically place them.
Wofford has made a leap up into the “In Safely” column. The Terriers are on a tear, pun intended. Their resume is basically dead even with Washington except for the NCSOS, which gives the Huskies a very slim advantage. The next debate would be if teams with great wins coupled with ugly losses should be above UW or Wofford? I believe that the committee prefers the clean resumes over the likes of Baylor, Syracuse, and Seton Hall for now. Wofford and UW both possess great Away records as well. This situation is as fluid as it gets and if we are in a situation like this on Selction Sunday - it would be a hot debate in the committee room.
Auburn would also be controversial to be placed at 38, with a NET of 24. But I cannot move the Tigers above any of the teams above them currently until they start winning quality games on the road and/or get deeper help with losses from the teams above.
Bubble Trouble (41-48, and Knocking on the Door)
The Bubble picture actually recieved a little bit of good news for once, as some of the cutline teams actually won over the weekend. In fact: ASU, Oklahoma, and Temple all won on the road. This is the kind of clarity weve desperately needed for a while. But it is still ugly. The two stolen bids from Davidson and Bowling Green are really helping me, and I am sure the committee wouldn’t mind a few bid thieves at selection time.
Florida picked up a good win at Alabama, who also is now squarely in the bubble mix. That’s the problem, if Alabama is a bubble team, then how good of a win was that for Florida in the bigger picture? Time will tell. But I left the Gators out of the field because of a 3-5 road record and with zera wins against Quad 1A (top half of Quad 1).
Furman is incredibly tempting to select. I actually like their results more than Florida, UCF, and Clemson. However. The NCSOS ranking of #279 is just way to big of a hurdle historically to get one of the final bids. Paladins will likely need to beat Wofford this upcoming week and hope more bubble teams lose to have a realistic shot at selection. I’d like to seed Furman as a 10 seed or higher in order to feel safe. I won’t feel safe placing them in Dayton, based on history.
The Rest (49-68)
Drake is in the field today. A team I was fortunate to cover in December when they defeated Rider. Coach DeVries has been sensational all year on building a quality roster with no time, and especially for keeping this team focused after the awful injury news to star guard Nick Norton. Watchout for the Bulldogs during Arch and maybe even March Madness.
Radford took a tough loss to Charleston Southern over the weekend, drops them down into a very dangerous 15-seed position for today. Hofstra’s stunning loss at 9-win UNCW over the weekend was enough to knock them down to the 13-seed area. New Mexico State benefits from that and now is a 12-seed in San Jose.
SEED LIST 1-68
Seed List 02.11.19
Seeds 1-68 + Who is on the Periphery
Seed List 02.05.19
Protected Seeds (Seeds 1-4)
The top three teams are fairly clear at this juncture after both Michigan schools went down last week. The tricky part is seeding teams four through nine. Each team has their own unique case to be the last #1 seed. Taking into account the location of all games played and subsequent competitiveness, I think Michigan is deserving by a narrow margin for the fourth #1 seed. Kansas falls to #9 overall and onto the three seed line for the first time, mainly for only having one key road win and five overall losses (list includes West Virginia). Louisville made a nice jump up last night, taking advantage of shorthanded Va. Tech on the road. I continue to be really impressed with the body of work that Wisconsin has put forward.
Middle of the Board (Seeds 5-10)
Although Iowa has four fantastic wins, none of them are on the road. They will need to prove that they can win a marquee road game or at least beat a team on the road who is in the projected field before I feel comfortable about giving them protected seed status. Nevada looks the part, but sadly has not played any Quadrant 1 games at this point. Kansas State is leading the Big 12 and playing well, but they still have to live with their losses at Tulsa, at TAMU, and home against Texas. Buffalo took a step back with a road loss at Bowling Green, but I believe the Bulls are still safe for now with their road win at Syracuse and four top two quadrant wins, without a real bad loss (Q3+). Oklahoma lost another home game last night, marking their third home loss in three weeks. Sooners are going the wrong direction, but still have the unique distinction of being the only team that has not played a Quadrant 4 game, which equals a very strong Strength of Schedule.
Bubble
Still mostly a mess this week. Bowling Green did us a favor by taking one of the bids away. The comparison between Temple and the first four teams out was very close. I ultimately leaned on Temple having the best win (Houston) and going a perfect 5-0 against Quadrant 2. They are beating the teams they are supposed to (besides Penn).
Auto Bids
Auto Bid tiebreakers are broken down on the Bracketology page.
Seed List 01.28.19
Bracket Notes and Seed List 01.21.19
Battle for the four #1 Seeds
I am curently seeing five deserving teams for four spots. Virginia, Michigan, Tennessee, Duke, and Michigan State. They are all deserving for the top billing as of today. Given the fact that UVA only lost on the road to Duke and has beaten teams like Va Tech, At Maryland, Wisconsin, Florida State and at Clemson in impressive fashion, I believe the Cavs are deserving of the number one overall seed. Next would be Michigan due to also only having the one road loss to Wisconsin now, but still having wins at Villanova and against UNC, Indiana, and Purdue. Next is Tennessee who barely has the edge over Duke by the slightest of margins. This really came down to Duke having a home loss to Syracuse and not quite enough to overcome an otherwise flawless Volunteer resume. Michigan State actually has more Group one wins (7) than these squads and can be argued in. But I have them in 5th position for now.
Final Spots
It still isn’t pretty between the teams near the bubble, mainly due to several teams lacking opportunities like San Francisco, UCF, UNCG, etc. So for now I am doing my best to go with teams that actually have quality wins away from home to work with and a decent start to their resume. Arizona edged out Butler for the final spot this week. I am sure a lot will change by next week.
Here is the Full Seed List
Bracket Building Overview and Seed List 01.14.19
2019 is here and this marks my eighth year doing Bracketology. I am ready to dig into the first full execise of selecting, seeding and building a bracket that is based on what we know at this point of the College Basketball season. Bracketology can be defined as the art and logistics of predicting the teams that will be selected in the annual NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament and where the games will be played. Here is a quick review on the process for anyone new to the website.
How the Teams are Selected.
Basics:
32 Auto Bids, 36 At-Large Teams
Projected Auto Bid Tiebreakers:
I love to add different variables to my updates in order to keep the bracketing pricnciples sharp in my mind. In order to do that, I have a slightly different way of selecting teams that represent each Conference’s Auto Bid. Here is a snapshot
1) Conference Leader in the Loss column
2) In the event of a head to head tie for 1st: H2H winner gets the bid; if the tied teams haven’t played each other, then I revert to the preseason pick; if neither apply, then I go to the resumes and make a selection as if they are At Large teams.
3) In the event of a multiple team tie for 1st: H2H record (all teams must have faced each other); if the tied teams haven’t all played each other, then I revert to the preseason pick; if neither apply, then I go to the resumes and make a selection as if they are At Large teams.
Here’s an example for today:
MWC has two teams with zero losses, Boise State and UNLV.
Have not met Head to Head or were preseason picks to win the league
UNLV gets the projected bid for having a better resume thus far.
Auto Bids are then complete, and the 36 At Large teams are then needed next. I work off of a large board with about 60-75 At Large candidates at any given time. As the season goes on, the list gets smaller. From there I simply follow all of the NCAA Principles and Procedures to make the selections. I pride my work on trying to make arguments good and bad for each team, and strive to end up with the common sense pecking order.
Here is our First Seed List of 2019:
2018-19 Preseason Seed List
FINAL Seed List
Seed List: March 5th, 2018
Seed List 1-68
