The first official bracket projection of 2020 is here! What that means is for the first time since the preseason, all teams have been selected, seeded, and placed into the bracket using the NCAA’s policies and procedures. So here is my best personal simulation of the committee’s annual exercise based on the results that have happened to date.
Seeding Summary:
- Baylor edged out Duke with a slightly better overall body of work. The win at Kansas really tips the scales for now.
- Auburn is inching closer to the top two lines, but still needs to play and win a challenging road game (Q1) before I can guarantee that leap. The chances are coming soon.
- Villanova has emerged from a slow start to the season to creep up into the 12th overall spot, and the final 3-seed. The Wildcats now hold two elite (Quad 1A) after beating Creighton on the road. Villanova is the only team to win at Creighton this year.
- Wisconsin snuck up the list after my deep review. Badgers have three (two elite) impressive road wins, a strong strength of schedule, and the Badgers’ NET rating has them in the Top 25 for today.
- Illinois went from a bubble team to an 8-seed in a week. The Illini won at the aforementioned Wisconsin and beat Rutgers in a defensive battle. Some of this Big Ten canibalism is actually benefitial for the majority of the league.
- Charlotte is the last remaining unbeaten team in Conference USA and slips in as the final 14-seed. A projected matchup against FSU in Tampa, would be fun for the 49er fans.
Final Selections:
- Unlike previous Big Board updates, for this exercise I was able to evaluate more comprehensive Quadrant data. And comparing up to 40+ bubble resumes is not easy to do! So you’ll see a reshuffle of the teams in today’s post.
- VCU, Utah, Xavier, and NC State head to Dayton. The real surprise was Xavier here. I had them barely out last week, then they lost at home to Creighton. So why are they in?….After careful examination, the Musketeers have a 5-5 record against the top two quads, and a perfect 3-0 record in Quad 3. Thats 8-5 in the top three quads. In comparing them to the others below them, it stands out as a stronger body of work.
- Miami, USC, Washington, ETSU are the first four out of the field. Miami and USC were previously lower, they are both one quality win away from jumping in. Miami’s win at Illinois is aging well, and they are 6-5 against the Top three quads. The NET ranking at 82 needs a boost however.
- Big Ten has 11 teams in the field. And they are in quite comfortably for today.
Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly unlikely by March, but we will roll with it for now.)
FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Miami, USC, Washington, ETSU
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Virginia Tech, Tennessee, St. John's, Minnesota
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