Not long ago, doing a Preseason Bracket was a cool idea, but never a must. Why try to predict something that is primarily based on performance when there are no qualified performances to date? The answer today is easier: The College Basketball community loves preseason content and team comparisons. How does my team stack up nationally? Where would we potentially travel to in March? What’s our seed? The list goes on..
With the endless amount of data available and schedule analyzing that I’ve done, it has now become more of a comprehensive exercise. Putting this together really prepares me for the season, so this has become an overall rewarding effort. In addition, the bracketing exercise itself is a valuable exercise (about 5-7 hours in length per bracket) any time of year. Looking for repeat matchups, following bracketing rules, what happens if BYU makes it and can’t play on Sundays, etc. The popularity of Bracketology increases each year and there is a lot to explore, review, and consider.
Why do these Ten leagues get so many At-large Bids these days?
Part Two of the bracket preview brings us to the Multi-Bid conferences. With the power of TV Contracts and Coaching Salaries, the very large majority of control in College Basketball resides within these ten leagues. That also translates to a lot of bids. In 2019, 35 of 36 At-Large Bids came from these ten conferences. The exception was Belmont, who had a fantastic resume but barely squeezed into the First Four. The inherit advantages for the ten leagues at the top of College Basketball is simple: more opportunities. Until the committee decides to not consider quality wins more important than a quality record, then the built-in advantage for power leagues will always be protected. The NCAA Tournament revenue model provides distribution per conference. For each tournament game in which a conference member participates, that equals one share for the conference. The more shares for the conference, the more the league will be able to reallocate to their conference members. These ten leagues today are steadfast at sending as many members to the NCAA Tournament as possible, motivated not only by success but monetarily.
Breakdown
Let’s get into these teams who are fighting to get to the dance and eventually Atlanta in April. After spending months reading, listening, and tracking personnel changes, I’ve put my best guesses for this season together. You will notice that some leagues have a different league champion than the projected Auto-Bid winner. This was done by design, as it is realistic to see this in at least a couple of conferences. With the Pac-12 and AAC appearing to be stronger this season, I am projecting four bids from each league. SEC is leading the way here with seven bids. And things are balanced between the Big XII, ACC, and Big Ten – six bids a piece. In the A-10, I am calling for Davidson to steal a bid and VCU/Dayton earn at-large slots. St. Mary’s out of the WCC, joins Utah State out of the MWC as at-large selections as well. Gonzaga and New Mexico are my picks to win the Auto-Bids. All in all, I am forecasting all 36 At-Large bids going to these ten leagues. Hopefully I am wrong and we see a few go to the other 22, but this is our starting point.
Without further ado, here is how I see the power conferences shaking out this year. We can all get a good chuckle at this come April:
Look for our complete Bracket posted later today and 1 thru 68 Seed List. Happy Hoops season!