Bracketology Notes:
- All previous bracket projections have been modified to fit what we learned during Saturday’s NCAA Bracket Preview show. The main adjustments since the show occured with Seton Hall’s win at Villanova, which yielded a Pirates jump over both West Virginia and Florida State. The Mountaineers themselves lost to Oklahoma following the show. That also allowed Maryland to assume the final 2-seed (which was projected here on Friday). Auburn was able to pass Villanova and Oregon after they each lost on Saturday. And Kentucky snuck up to the 14th position as a result of Butler also losing.
- Penn State became the most difficult team to place following the NCAA Preview teleconference. I learned during the call that their Non-Confrerence strength of schedule is a big issue preventing them from entering the top 16. I would personally vote to have them as a 4-seed, but now I will need to proceed with caution after Saturday. So the Nittany Lions sit in the 5-seed range today. Also, Houston has gained control of the AAC after demolishing Wichita State on Sunday. This means no more bid steal projection is coming from the AAC and Houston has moved into 7-seed position.
- Oklahoma was teetering with the bubble last week, but a vital win over West Virginia has the Sooners in a much better position now. Purdue made some impressive noise last week by destroying Iowa and then winning convincingly at Indiana over the weekend. It was the first road win over a projected tournament team this season for the Boilermakers. The two wins not only improved their NET and resume, but also put the Boilers four games over .500. A key column to follow for bubbling Big Ten teams, given all of the competition on a nightly basis.
Boilermakers earned their first road win over a projected tournament team - Indiana. Courtesy: BTN.
- The last four teams for selection was a challenge again today. I looked at ten teams for what amounted to seven spots. Northern Iowa is an auto-bid in that mix, the other six spots are the final at-large bids. The last bid came down to struggling Wichita State or Mississippi State. The Bulldogs do have a better NET (41) than the Shockers (50), but the MSU top two quad record is just 4-6 right now. If Missisippi State takes care of business with their remaining schedule, they will eventually pass resumes like Wichita State on the seed list. For today, the Shockers are in.
- ETSU was also selected as an at-large. With Furman taking the Automatic SoCon Bid, that now gives us a projected two-bid SoCon. The chances of this playing out will require ETSU to lose in the conference tournament to a team like Furman or UNCG, maybe Wofford or WCU. Then surviving a major sweat on Selection Sunday. The Bucs moved up 11 places to #43 in the NET last week following two road wins, putting themselves in decent shape for a bid. With the AAC not stealing a bid in this projection, our total bid stealer count remains one overall.
New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Houston
Big Sky - Montana
CAA - Hofstra
Ivy - Yale
MAAC - Rider
MEAC - N.C. Central
SEC - Auburn
SWAC - Prairie View A&M
Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Furman)
FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Mississippi State, VCU, Memphis, Utah State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Richmond, Cincinnati, NC State, Georgetown
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