MID-WEEK SUMMARY
The first notable change is Marquette. The Golden Eagles, of course, are navigating life without Tyler Kolek for the time being and dealt with team illnesses at Creighton. Certainly, no shame in losing to either the Jays or UConn, but the wins have also somewhat cooled off. Marquette is down to arguably six wins against NCAAT competition, and if you remove extra bubbly St. John’s and Villanova, that number shrinks by two. Baylor and Kansas have done more damage at this stage plus the committee will certainly have concerns if Kolek’s status remains in question.
It was a surprise to see San Diego State included in the Bracket Preview as a 4-seed, but now I think the committee would have the Aztecs below the SEC trio of Kentucky, Auburn, and Alabama, along with Illinois. Aztecs lost on the road to all of the six MWC teams who are part of the top seven. Pretty surprising that they didn’t beat one of them out of six tries, following the loss at UNLV this week.
The 5-seed line has an opening for the final spot following Washington State’s home loss to Washington. Clemson held serve against Syracuse this week, and I believe they are back with this group of teams. BYU and South Carolina both missed opportunities to move up, but no real harm in their losses.
A larger cluster exists between the 6-seed and 7-seeds. Very difficult to separate the 8-pack of Dayton/Florida/Gonzaga/Nevada/Saint Mary’s/Utah State/Washington State/Wisconsin. Not a lot of commonalities between this variety pack. Hopefully, this weekend will help clarify the matter further.
Seton Hall was a big winner to help get in a more stable position and send Villanova in the extreme danger zone with 13 overall losses. The Wildcats finish tomorrow with a must-win home win over Creighton. A win gives them a sweep over the Jays. It’s a polarizing at-large resume, but a 14th loss would provide a de facto TKO to the NIT most likely.
Iowa has been Idle all week, but must’ve been fun for the Hawkeyes to see a few teams fall. Massive game for the Hawkeyes this Sunday vs. Illinois. A loss gives them the unlucky 13 total and a lopsided 12-13 record once Q4 games are ignored.
Colorado is in a better position following a road win at Oregon. That likely sent Oregon into auto-bid or bust territory. For the Buffs- another road win at Oregon State is a must. The injury woes all year have prevented CU from being consistent, I think that is likely to be discussed by the committee in the extreme bubble category.
Providence needs this win over UConn of course, and if they can do it - likely the Friars are back on the good side of the bubble
Stetson will host Austin Peay in the ASUN Championship Game. The Hatters enter the projection for the first time.
Toledo benefited from the massive MAC upset this week where Eastern Michigan upended Akron. The Rockets are in the field today as the league’s representative.
BRACKET
Bracket projections are based on the 2023-24 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on which team has the inside track to the top seed within its conference tournament.
Forecasted At-Large Bids Stolen: 3: AAC (South Florida), A-10 (Richmond), Sun Belt (Appalachian State). The Annual Average = 2.3 Bids taken per year.
FIRST FOUR OUT: New Mexico, Villanova, St. John's, Memphis
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Providence, Utah, Pittsburgh, Drake
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