Today reminded many in the College Basketball community that there are more important areas of life than debating a bracket projection or College Basketball. Hopefully this bracket post is a welcome distraction for you. One way or another, we had this set and ready this morning. Without further ado..
Welcome to the first of several Big Boards (we hope) in 2021. As you know by now, this season has been like no other. So before we breakdown the Bracketology teams, lets go over a few ground rules, shall we?
Today’s Big Board Parameters:
For all Big Board updates, Auto Bids: I continue to move forward with my Preseason pick to win the conference until they have a loss in conference. I did make one notable exception, with Kentucky. At 3-6 overall and other bid theives in the projection (Wichita State and UAB), I did not want to have the bracket represent three bids taken away at this stage, especially from a power conference with the unlikihood of a bid stolen.
Any teams with a noticebale shortage of games - Ex: Virginia, Duke, UConn, etc. A more predictive analysis is still being used to slot them. I had Duke and Virginia at the top of the food chain in preseason, and they have taken noticeable drops in tiers - however I don’t have enough data yet to support removing them from the field.
As an extension of #2, we have Auto-Bid teams like New Mexico State, EWU, Mount St. Mary’s, and Siena with very minimal data. They will continue to survive until they lose a conference game.
Teams that have played a prudent amount of games are being moved around the board more and more on their merits. Example, Michigan started on the bubble and his shot all the way up to 6 after a hot start with several games played. On the flipside, I’ve seen enough to move North Carolina completley out of the field for now due to the amount of games they’ve played and how they’ve performed.
The Big Board represents a comparison of teams within the reasonable tiers they are placed in. In less than two weeks, a complete bracket exercise will be conducted using the policies and procedures set forth by the NCAA Selection Committee.
Tier Summary
Top Seeds - The first four are about as established as you can ask for. Texas winning at Kansas made that clear. Gonzaga, Baylor maintain the top two spots with relative ease. You could make an argument for Texas to be above Villanova, but its mostly pointless at this stage because the Wildcats defeated the Longhorns in Austin.
2nd Tier - Hard to defend Michigan’s wins over the rest, but what I can defend is their undefeated record. In a cluster of teams with big wins, yet some losing - the Wolverines stand tall. Also, I thought initially that Missouri’s loss to Mississippi State would knock them further, but the resume for today is still very strong and the Tigers sit 12th overall.
3rd Tier - A mix of pathways like West Virginia falling and Minnesota/Clemson climbing within this bunch. These five teams have both significant upside and significant downside possibilities ahead.
In Safely - The higher end of these teams have had success already - like Virginia Tech and Alabama of late. Towards the bottom, remains more of a mystery- Duke and Virginia, as covered above.
In, Not by much - Kudos to Boise State and Western Kentucky for playing their way inside the bubble to date. Still have a lot of work to do to make an at-large bid a reality, however both also have solid chances to win auto bids as well. On the flipside, we still don’t know a lot about Arkansas or SMU’s resume - so the play-in game feels fair.
Knocking on the Door - Syracuse was projected out in preseason, and with limited games and the lack of quality wins, the Orange remain out. Drake has had a lot of attention and well-deserved. The Bulldogs are 13-0 and destorying teams, unfortunately no wins against the Top 150 yet meant we left them just out for now, but a huge two-game series with Loyola-Chicago in Des Moines this weekend can change that. We do have two projected bids stolen today, so if you want to imagine those spots going to at-large teams - you can pencil in Seton Hall and Providence.
Auto Bids - Some changes to highlight since preseason: Navy was the only team to sweep a Patriot League series, welcome aboard Midshipmen. UAB is in for now, despite not playing a CUSA game. The reason is because WKU has a loss, and the Blazers had a slightly better resume than North Texas of the unbeaten teams remaining. UIC, under new HC Luke Yaklich makes an appearance after a 2-0 start. They have a slightly better overall resume than Cleveland State in the Horizon, despite the Vikings impressive 6-0 league start.
Seeds 1-68
Projected Bids Stolen: 2. (Wichita State, UAB).
