The Bracketology Big Board is the final look at the NCAA Tournament picture prior to the Selection Show.
Inside the Bracket
Bracketology Big Board - Early Selection Sunday
Today’s Bracket was posted earlier, feel free to read the full write-up there. We will have one more update just before the Selection Show today. Below is a look at the complete landscape.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - GEORGIA TECH
Big East - GEORGETOWN
Big XII - TEXAS
Conference USA - NORTH TEXAS
MAAC - IONA
MAC - OHIO
Pac-12 - OREGON STATE
SWAC - TEXAS SOUTHERN
The Bracketology Big Board is current through all games played on March 13th, 2021.
Big Board 03.13.21
Today’s Bracket will be posted shortly, here is a look at the complete landscape. Utah State was yesterday’s big winner by manhandling Colorado State by 12. I believe this checked an important box for the Aggies, getting a quality win away from Logan. The bubble is still chaotic as we have a handful of bid thieves still in play today, namely Oregon State and Georgetown.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big Sky - Eastern Washington
MAAC - Fairfield
MAC - Buffalo
Southland - Abilene Christian
The Bracketology Big Board is current through all games played on March 12th, 2021.
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Big Board 03.12.21
Today’s Bracket will be posted shortly, here is a look at the complete landscape. The bubble got wider with the early exits from UCLA and Louisville over the past two days. Neither team is 100% safe, but should survive as long as no unexpected bids are taken for the bid pool.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Florida State (Virginia out of ACC due to Covid-19 issue)
MEAC - Norfolk State (NC A&T out of MEAC due to Covid-19 issue)
The Bracketology Big Board is current thru all games played on March 11th, 2021.
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Big Board 03.11.21
Today’s Bracket is here for your viewing pleasure. Please refer to this for added thoughts on where certain teams stand heading into an immense Thursday of College Basketball. Also I added thoughts on some of them most impactful bubble matchups today.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
MAAC - St. Peter’s
The Bracketology Big Board is current thru all games played on March 10th, 2021.
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Big Board 03.10.21
Full bracket pairings will be posted shortly in the Bracketology section.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
CAA - DREXEL (CHAMPIONS)
NEC - MOUNT ST. MARY’S (CHAMPIONS)
Summit - ORAL ROBERTS (CHAMPIONS)
Sun Belt - APPALACHIAN STATE (CHAMPIONS)
The Bracketology Big Board is current through all games played on March 7th, 2021.
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Bracketology Big Board 03.08.21
Full bracket will be posted shortly in the Bracketology section. Please refer to the Bracketology post for a complete summary on bracket movement.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Virginia
America East - Hartford
CAA - Northeastern
NEC - Bryant
OVC - MOREHEAD STATE (CHAMPIONS)
Patriot - Colgate
Southland - Nicholls
Sun Belt - Georgia State
The Bracketology Big Board is current through all games played on March 7th, 2021.
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Big Board 03.06.21
Full bracket is here. Please refer to this for added thoughts on where certain teams stand heading into an immense Saturday of College Basketball. Also a full preview of the day is on the Bracketolgy tab.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
WAC - Utah Valley
The Bracketology Big Board is current thru all games played on March 5th, 2021.
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Big Board 03.04.2021
WEDNESDAY RECAP
Coming into an action packed Thursday, the Big Board gets a fresh update. Wednesday gave us some subtle moves. Specifically, Seton Hall dropping to UConn to fall to 12-11 overall. With the loss, the Pirates also dropped to 2-7 against teams in the field and just 6-10 against all of Quadrant 2. As much as I like the Pirates on the court, that is simply too high of a rate of losing without enough marquee wins to warrant an invite to the dance. Hall needs to win Saturday at St. John’s and likely a deep run next week at MSG in the Big East Tournament in order to get back over the hump. UConn continues to ascend up the board, the main reason they are not “In Safely” yet is due to their schedule. A home loss to Georgetown this weekend would put them back under the microscope, but if the Huskies get that win they’re getting in almost certainly.
Mizzou may have had the most impactful win of the day for seeding. They moved back safely into 5-seed territory after the win in Gainesville. Tigers have a list of marquee wins that are difficult for anyone to match, however the three bad losses still do damage to the seed position. Transitive property from this result and the improved Mizzou profile notably helps Ole Miss a nudge. The Rebels are still on the outside looking in, but the Ole Miss sweep over Mizzou looks a bit better this morning. Rebels currently have only won nine out of 19 games against the top three quadrants, a win this weekend vs. Vanderbilt gets them to .500. We will be taking a long look at the Rebels on Saturday night should they get the win, the Q3 poor record is the primary remaining outlier for exclusion. Rebels have stronger wins than both Xavier and Boise State.
Villanova played very well over Creighton. Best wishes to Wildcats star and future legend Collin Gillespie, who went down with a knee injury. MRI is coming today. The Cats went with a bigger lineup with Gillespie out and it did create some improved defense down the stretch to secure the win. Creighton will still be the two-seed at the Big East Tournament, but gets passed up by Mizzou now on the Big Board and find themselves in the six-seed area.
Oregon controls their own destiny for the Pac-12 top seed. Knocking off UCLA last night got them one step closer and they are really turning it on and finally healthy. In-state rival Oregon State is next this weekend. Beavers have been playing well lately themselves, we should witness a highly emotional battle on Sunday. Beavers have a chance to earn the important fifth seed with a win. With no Arizona in the Pac-12 Tournament, the 5-seed recieves a bye. Great Civil War storylines for all.
In Conference Tournament play, Belmont held serve and so did the second-seeded Morehead State. The format also provides a day of rest today for the top two teams, while seeds three through six battle it out tonight. That could be important for Belmont’s Nick Muszynski who played just 18 minutes in the game last night. Bruins will have a much stiffer test in the semifinals against either Jacksonville State (last meeting was a one-point win) or Murray State (long-time arch rivals now in OVC).
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big Sky - Southern Utah
Pac-12 - Oregon
Southland - Sam Houston State
The Bracketology Big Board is current thru all games played on March 3rd, 2021.
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Big Board 03.03.21
The Big Board is representative of today’s bracket. As I always have done, teams are sorted into different columns to help showcase the vulnerability of dropping or the chances to advance up the board for each program. Be sure to check back to see all of the bracket pairings.
The Bracketology Big Board is current thru all games played on March 2nd, 2021.
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Bubble Breakdown and Big Board 03.02.21
It’s the first bracket of March, and a 16-day Championship Week is already underway. It was time for a comprehensive look at the bubble today and looking forward.
Very careful analysis and interpretations of what the committee values the most in this very interesting mix of teams and limited data was used to decipher who belongs in and out for today. As you’ll notice, many team comparisons are ridiculously difficult. The main catergories below are common for trying to get a grasp on the entire selection and seeding process. In addition, I’ve added an extra column for Quad 2A results. For those unaware, last year the actual NCAA Team Sheets were revised to split Quad 1 and Quad 2 evenly in half. This allows committee members to break up the results into a deeper understanding. As we get into bubble territory, I have found the 2A column to be pretty useful. Another key area is wins against the field, you’ll see that in the first column prior to the listed wins against the field. Here is the full breakdown and how I ranked the teams for now:
Some quick thoughts on what’s needed for each Bubble Team:
Rutgers - Win at Minnesota or win opening B1G Tournament game and in. Lose both and probably out, would be 13-12 overall.
Loyola-Chicago: Mostly safe. Worst case scenario is lose opener on Friday to Southern Illinois (currrently 218 NET) or Bradley (149 NET). A loss to SIU would put them under the microscope I believe.
North Carolina: Hosting Duke then off to the ACC Tournament. A home loss to Duke likely would send UNC to the 8-9 game of the ACC against Syracuse or NC State. So potentially another non-tourney loss, but not a disasterous loss. Of this list UNC seems to be most safe due to their remaining schedule, but never can be sure with bid steals potentially out there.
VCU: Conference tournament this weekend vs. Rhode Island or Dayton. VCU likely needs to get this first win to breathe easier. Opportunity does exist for a non-conference game should the Rams exit early. One win should be enough, unless they lost to a cinderella team in the following round.
UConn: This Huskies team has proven with little doubt that they are much different and better with a healthy James Bouknight. He is healthy, and they are in now. It’s not a get out of jail free card though. Huskies head to Seton Hall tomorrow and a tricky finale on Saturday vs. streaking Georgetown. Going to need to at least take care of the home win this week.
St. Bonaventure: Bonnies put themselves at more risk by losing last night vs. Dayton at home. The A10 draw gives them either Richmond or Duquesne. Duquesne has a NET of 139 today, so a loss to the Dukes would add a second Q3 loss. In that scenario, Bonnies are likely to explore non-conference options before Selection Sunday. A trip to the semifinals however, should have SBU in good shape.
Georgia Tech: This is where the bubble gets extreme. Yellow Jackets are barely in, make no mistake about it. But my belief is once they’ve been selected, they deserve to be a bit higher on the board due to the quality of wins they’ve collected. Big one tonight with Duke, and a sneaky road test at Wake Forest this weekend. The formula is simple sweep this week or they need probably a semifinal run in the ACC’s (depending on bracket).
Boise State: Broncos have one game left vs. Fresno State tonight. A win is needed there. Then the Broncos enter the Mountain West Tournament looking to avoid a bad loss (anyone besides the top three) and can likely lock up a bid with a run to the tournament final.
Michigan State: Similar to Georgia Tech, the Spartans are looking to get selected and then likely to move above the cut-off line by a few slots at least, due to their impressive wins. Here’s the kicker, Spartans host Indiana tonight then get two cracks at Michigan later this week. This provides a tremendous opportunity for MSU to be safe with a split vs. Michigan. The overall big concerns today are the NET and SOS, but one win over Michigan could alieviate any concern - especially a win in Ann Arbor.
Xavier - I am a little less impressed with Xavier than most. The committee repeatedly states, who did you play? Where did you play them? How did you do? The problem for the Musketeers is a lack of evidence away from the Cintas Center and their middling predictive metrics. Two road wins at Georgetown and Marquette would help quite a bit, and for insurance - a Big East Tournament win.
Drake - The Bulldogs need to get to the final of the MVC Tournament and play Loyola-Chicago. If so, they should be in. If they miss the final, or lose in the final against another Valley program - it spells very nervous times on Selection Sunday. Let’s hope Drake can get Tank Hemphill back and mostly healthy this weekend.
Colorado State - CSU has New Mexico and at Nevada still this week. The road test at Nevada is particularly dangerous, but also an opportunity to reinforce their resume strength. In the MWC Tournament, a semifinal appearance at minimum is likely required. CSU may still need to win it all in Vegas though, if multiple bid steals happen across the country.
Wichita State - Current AAC leader and in the projected field. Could get an at-large by winning until the AAC final and losing to Houston. If the Shockers lost to anyone else, it would have to be SMU or Memphis to stay in the discussion. For now, tomorrow’s game with Tulane is an obvious must win.
Seton Hall - Pirates have a nice quintet of road wins over top two quadrants, but they also possess three negative results as shown in the “2B losses or worse” column. The Pirates can play their way in. A big home game on Senior Night tomorrow vs. UConn and a local road game at St. John’s this weekend. Decent chance that Seton Hall could meet Xavier in the four vs. five game at the Big East Tournament (current standings has this), if so could be for a bid. Let’s see how it plays out.
Western Kentucky - Hilltoppers continue to hold on to their neutral court win over Alabama like gold. The Tops host ODU twice this weekend, need a sweep. A run to the CUSA final and losing to Marshall/UNT/LA Tech would keep them in the hunt for at-large. For now, still the projected CUSA champion.
Utah State - USU’s sweep over Nevada got them closer to the cut-line. Unfortunately, the games with Wyoming and Fresno State this week do not provide much opportunity. Need to win both and hope for help. USU’s performance at the MWC Tournament may also require a run to the finals.
Duke - Blue Devils are still in control of their at-large destiny. Two opportunities on the road this week at Georgia Tech and at UNC. Both are near the bubble themselves, so Duke either needs both wins or a split then a run at the ACC tounrament - semifinals or further sounds right.
Saint Louis - The Billekins were crushed by shutdowns and unfortunately only played five road games, winning only at Fordham. Not good. SLU will be looking to make up for this on neutral courts in Richmond during the A10 Tournament. A run to the title is necessary for at-large consideration or perhaps a non-conference ROAD win. Perhaps at Drake, should they lose this weekend? Madness.
Winthrop - To save a few headaches, lets hope the Eagles win two more and get the Big South Auto bid. If not, they would finish with two losses. That will warrant a committee room discussion at minimum. Therefore, we are keeping them on the at-large radar for now.
Stanford - Behind the eight-ball badly now. But the good news is a road win at USC would help considerably on Saturday. Without that, the Cardinal likely have to win the Pac-12 tournament or make the Championship Game.
Indiana - Hoosiers are 12-12. This is simple math, somehow they need to land two games over .500. So a win at Michigan State and at Purdue this weekend is essential. Then at least one win at the B1G Tournament to land at 15-13? Crazier things have happened. And even a split this week means they need two wins at minimum next week, so an additional option. Don’t get it twisted though, things are pretty bleak.
Ole Miss - Rebels have a poor 8-10 record vs. the top three quadrants. Absolutely must sweep Kentucky and Vandy this week. Then likely need a win over a team in the projected field in the SEC Tournament to feel close.
St. John’s - Johnnies are also in must-win mode. Providence and Seton Hall visit this week. A sweep there, gets their quadrant records in a bit better shape. Cannot take back the home loss to DePaul though. Another win over the field is likely required in the Big East Tournament. Anything can happen in the Garden.
SMU - Mustangs have lost nine games to cancellations. They will be a real interesting case study on what the committee does, assuming the don’t win the auto-bid. The Mustangs are scheduled to finally get a home game in this Sunday vs. Tulsa. It would be their first game in a month. They’ll need to win, and then its off to the AAC Tournament. SMU overall has decent metrics, and I feel the committee may be compelled to make them an “alternate team” should they not win the AAC.
Minnesota - Only one path left: must win at Penn State (Gophers are 0-9 on road). Must beat Rutgers in finale. Hard to see this happening though with the way the Gophers have played of late. Another win or two would likely be needed at the B1G Tournament as well.
Memphis - The Tigers don’t have many wins besides Wichita State to point at. The Tigers do get a massive opportunity at Houston on Sunday, so we leave them in the at-large discussion based on that.
Providence - Has the nice road wins, and four wins over the field. You’ll see that stands out here. Just simply too much losing has outweighed the success. This week another crack at Villanova comes and tomorrow a road chance at St. John’s. Win both and things get interesting again.
Syracuse - The Orange are only 2-7 away from the Carrier Dome, and that’s about all you need to know. Nothing above the NC State road win, which won’t cut it. This week a home finale with Clemson is left, which would add a third win over the field if the Orange can win. But I still think the Orange need a deep ACC Tournament run to have a legitimate at-large chance based on their lack of calories on the road this season.
Davidson - Essentially need to win the A-10 Tournament. Only VCU exists thats in the field, can’t play them til the Semi’s and thats still not enough for at-large.
With all of that above, you will see the Bubble teams represented in the “In, Not By Much” and “Knocking on the Door” columns. Here is the rest of the Big Board following Baylor’s thrilling win at West Virginia. New Bracket and updated board also coming tomorrow.
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Bracketology Big Board 02.26.21
The Big Board is representative of today’s bracket. As I always have done, teams are sorted into different columns to help showcase the vulnerability of dropping or the chances to advance up the board for each program. Be sure to check back to see all of the bracket pairings.
The Bracketology Big Board is current thru games played on February 25th, 2021.
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Bracketology Big Board 02.22
The Big Board is representative of the bracket that will be posted today. As I always have done, teams are sorted into different columns to help showcase the vulnerability of dropping or the chances to advance up the board for each program.
The Bracketology Big Board is current thru games played on February 21st, 2021.
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Bracketology Big Board 02.19
The Big Board is updated to reflect the bracket posted today. As I always have done, teams are sorted into different tiers to showcase the vulnerability of dropping or the chances to advance for each program.
The Bracketology Big Board is current thru games played on February 18h, 2021.
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Big Board 02.16
Today’s Big Board is updated to reflect the bracket posted today. This was posted prior to any of the games on February 16th. As I always have done, teams are sorted into different tiers to showcase the vulnerability of dropping or the chances to advance for each program.
The Bracketology Big Board is current thru games played on February 15h, 2021.
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Big Board 02.12.21
Today’s Big Board is updated to reflect the bracket posted today. This was posted prior to any of the games on February 9th. This will be the final board until the CBS Bracket reveal show on Saturday. Once those results are in, we will have a reimagained projection on Monday. Let’s hope its not too far off what you see below.
Big Borad is current thru games played on February 11th, 2021.
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Big Board 02.09.21
Today’s Big Board is updated to reflect the bracket posted today. This was posted prior to any of the games on February 9th.
Big Borad is current thru games played on February 9th, 2021.
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Big Board 02.06
We’ve got an action packed Saturday coming our way. Be sure to review my Bracket Watch primer for a rundown of impactful games being played this weekend.
Ahead of the first Saturday in February, here is a look at the Bracketology Big Board.
Thru Games played on Febrary 5th, 2021. Complete bracket coming early next week.
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Big Board 02.01.21
Time for a fresh look at the Bracketology Big Board.
Today’s Big Board is updated to reflect the bracket posted today and Louisville’s win over Georgia Tech. This was posted prior to any of the evening games on February 1st.
Thru some games played on February 1st, 2021.
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Big Board 01.30.21
Saturday is here! Be sure to review this Bracket Watch primer for a rundown of impactful games being played this weekend. The Big XII-SEC Challenge is upon us, minus Texas at Kentucky. The challenge will provide key opportunities out of conference for several schools in contention for the tournament. Another important game not listed in the primer to keep your eye on, is Texas Tech at LSU.
Ahead of the final Saturday in January, here is a look at the Bracketology Big Board.
Thru Games played on January 29th, 2021. Complete bracket coming early next week.
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