DREAMS DASHED
We witnessed some high drama over the weekend. Drake got two stiff tests at sub-200 (NET) Valparaiso and fell way short on Sunday en route to their first loss. The pressure was mounting for Drake, who has been playing with unprecedented attention this season, maybe now the Bulldogs can get things rolling again. Boise State was swept at sub-100 Nevada, and suddenly are in danger. Indiana completed a sweep of percieved powerhouse Iowa. What did this do to each of these teams’ tourney hopes? We will address these topics and more in today’s Bracketogy forecast.
FINAL WEEK OF COMMITTEE MYSTERY
A tradition that Bracketologists are embracing more each year is the CBS Bracket Preview Show. This week the NCAA Selection Committee will meet for a couple of days, presumably over Zoom this year, to disccus who the top 16 teams on the Seed List should be. They select the teams, then seed them and bracket them in the same manner as the group will do next month. It is a sneak peak for the College Basketball community for what to expect in March. I mostly appreciate how this exercise will reveal how the committee is comparing teams and what they value most. Last season, they had Dayton fifth overall, when I had them ninth. It immediately told me they were rewarding a strong NET and other predictive metrics. The KPI, POM, SAG, BPI, SOR are all listed on the team sheet as well, which favored the Flyers. Perhaps that team this year is the Houston Cougars. UH has two road losses in conference to non-tourney teams (Tulsa and ECU). Outside of that, UH has beaten everyone including Texas Tech, Boise State, and SMU twice. Where the committee places the Cougars could go a long way in revealing what things look like further down the bracket. Until Saturday, I will continue beating down my preferred evaluation path based on more foundational history with many of the same sitting committee members.
BRACKET NOTES - Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.
- We have another flip/flop in the top overall spot and it is closer than ever. Gonzaga’s win last night over BYU combined with Baylor’s recent program pause has allowed the Zags to narrowly pass the Bears at this moment. Baylor’s schedule is much tougher down the stretch, and they continue to control their number-one overall seed destiny. Today however, Gonzaga has two more wins (11-0) away/neutral, and has more wins in each of the quadrants, and a narrow KenPom lead (if that means something to the committee).
- Oklahoma continues to surge up the pecking order, landing this morning in the 12th position - good for the final third-seeded team. Sooners compare favorably to the teams below them with the strength of their top end wins. In the Big 12, life is rough and OU keeps treading well above water. Iowa took a fall down to the four-seed line after being swept by Indiana. Hawkeyes continued to slip in throughout this exercise, there just is not a ton to like about the resume. Fortunately, the NET remains strong at nine and Iowa has more chances to prove everyone wrong.
- Purdue continues to live large as long as Ohio State stays a high end seed. The Boilers sweep of the Buckeyes plus a road win over Indiana is carrying a lot of weight today. But is not guranteed forever. Purdue fans need to continue rooting for the Buckeyes, strangely.
- Two peculiar resumes really stand out: Creighton and Clemson. The Jays have three Q3 home losses to go along with a stellar 9-2 record vs. the top two quadrants. And Clemson simply cannot get much done away from Littlejohn Coliseum lately. The Tigers have been dismantled in each of their past three road contests. With all of that said, these two find themselves on the seven-seed line today.
- Seton Hall and Indiana made important moves over the weekend to solidify themselves into today’s bracket. Both the Pirates and Hoosiers are playing with an age-old Selection Committee unspoken rule: no team less than two games over .500 have been selected as an at-large bid. Will the committee make any exceptions this year? It remains to be determined. For now, all projections are based on that still being the case. SHU and IU can breathe easy for a moment. The good news for each program is if they are both selected, they will likely be seeded well above the bubble, as they each have excellent wins thus far.
- With Utah State in first place, a bid was stolen. A bid that would have gone to VCU. The first five teams out of the field today are on the cusp of making it happen: VCU, Loyola-Chicago, Richmond, UConn and Saint Louis. A few teams included in the field today have substantial remaining work to do to feel safe. LSU and Arkansas are two that stand out with a real lack of tourney caliber wins, and are really just hanging on with their metrics for now.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
Big Sky - Eastern Washington
MWC - Utah State
NEC - Fairleigh Dickinson
SoCon - Wofford
Summit - South Dakota
Sun Belt - Texas State
Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 (Conference USA and MWC, UAB & Utah State)
FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: VCU, Loyola-Chicago, Richmond, UConn
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Saint Louis, Maryland, Georgia Tech, Pittsburgh
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