Time is ticking quickly in the Bracketology world. The selection committee’s process of balloting began yesterday and for many schools, today may be the last major day of significance into what ultimately becomes of the final landing spot in the bracket. The committee has already selected 25 teams on their initial ballots. Another 46 are under consideration for various reasons, this includes a handful of one-bid league champions (like Liberty and UNC-Greensboro for example). A handful of the 46 teams teams will ultimately become automatic qualifiers this week, all others will fall into the at-large pool.
For the past five years or so, I’ve had the privledge to serve on a mock selection committe with our friends at HoopsHD.com. We carefully follow the committee’s process step-by-step. The purpose of this exercise is to go through and experience what is being discussed about teams, and what is not. It’s a tremendous experience for independent bracket forecasters. At the end of the day - all NCAA Tournament selection and seeding decisions are done as a group, not an individual. Not me, not Lunardi, not Palm, but a group of mostly experienced leaders in college sports that make up this committee. In order for me to maintain accurate forecasting, I must always live in that mindset of group-think.
Today is an essepecially important day for certain teams:
Michigan State vs. Maryland. My big question comes if Maryland loses. The Terps are currently 14-12 vs. D1 competition, a loss leaves them just one game above .500. If my research is correct, the last team to get in just two games above .500 was 2001 Georgia. I am fairly certain that no team just one game over .500 has been selected. None of this necessarily disqualifies Maryland with a loss today, but it does put them on the immediate hot seat. The simple path would be to just beat the Spartans to make this a non-issue during a Covid year and shortened season.
Syracuse vs. Virginia. The Orange have a shot here. Playing real well in their past few outings and creeping closer to the cut-line. A win today would help significantly as it would give Syracuse a win away from the Carrier Dome with real substance.
Seton Hall vs. St. John’s. Both teams are looking to make a run to the finals and are likely fortunate to be on the same half of the bracket as shorthanded Villanova. Red Storm won this same matchup this past Saturday. Today’s losing team will likely be left out of the field.
Nevada vs. Boise State. The Broncos were swept at Nevada not long ago. Here we are again with another matchup in Las Vegas to open the tournament. Boise State’s loss to Fresno State put them in a dangerous position to be excluded. Broncos likely need to solve Nevada today to feel even moderately okay on Sunday.
Duke is rumored to be out of the ACC Tournament due to a Covid-19 positive test. If so, a strange season for the Blue Devils comes to an abrupt end today. They needed to beat Florida State for any chance of inclusion. Unfortunately they won’t get the opportunity it appears. And in all liklihood the Blue Devils will turn down an NIT offer.
New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
MAAC - Saint Peter’s
Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely, annual average is 2.4 per season)
NCAA ALTERNATE TEAMS: Syracuse, Utah State, Saint Louis, Xavier
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: St. John's, Memphis, SMU, Seton Hall
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