BRACKET NOTES
Teams are selected, seeded, and bracketed as if today is Selection Sunday.
Selection Sunday is here! It is a special day for many in the College Basketball world. After not making it this far last season, I am feeling extra appreciative overall that the 2020-21 season was able to be played in some capacity. It has not been a smooth ride for anyone involved. Great sacrifices were made by thousands of people to get these games played and several stumbles certainly occured. I truly hope next season is a much improved experience and we can have teams play an entire regular season safely and with a more authentic experience for the players and staffs. In the mean time, we are close to the finish line here in 2021. So let’s review whats left for the committee to do.
- Most of the major decisions on seeding (top four seeds) should be wrapped up now. I have Houston getting that final 2-seed today, with a contingency that they drop the Cougars to the final 3-seed with a loss to Cincinnati. Speaking of the Bearcats, they hold all of the cards today. If Cincy can pull up off the major upset over Houston, another bid is gone - and that likely spells doom for Wichita State’s hopes of inclusion. Other decisions in the middle of the seed list and bottom of the seed list were likely deliberated all evening long last night. I will conitinue to evaluate these decisions myself leading up to the 6PM EST deadline.
- Bubble picture: I think there is an argument to made for three teams for the final spot. I believe those three teams are Wichita State, Syracuse and Ole Miss. The Shockers are getting destroyed in a couple of the listed predictive metrics (BPI-96, POM-74) on the team sheet, however they do have solid resume metrics (KPI -33, SOR -42). The Shockers also boast a regular season championship and an attractive 6-3 Away/Neutral record. Syracuse has solid metrics across the board, which makes the Orange very tempting to include. However, Syracuse only has one top 100 road win and an Away/Neutral record of just 3-8. Based on all factors, I think Wichita State would be the more favorable choice for the committee. Ole Miss is a wildcard in play here. Rebels do have four losses in Quad 2B and below (including to Wichita State) hurting them. In contrast, the Rebels have the best collection of road wins and the strongest road win (at Mizzou) of the bubble contenders. So, you can make a case for any of the three here. I am going with the Shockers for now. For Colorado State, unfortunately I do not see a path for selection any longer.
- More work to do in 13-16 seed area is ahead for me. A lot of new faces emerged and some deeper comparisons are going to be done today. Look for some tweaks potentially later this afternoon.
Bracket projections are based on 2020-21 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.
Projected At-Large Bids Stolen: 2 (Georgetown - BIG EAST, Oregon State - PAC-12)
NCAA ALTERNATE TEAMS: Syracuse, Ole Miss, Colorado State, Saint Louis
NEXT TEAMS OUT: Xavier, Seton Hall
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