Coming on the heels of a wild week of upsets, we enter the first weekend of February. The bracket picture has suddenly become less clear than any point of the season. So what does that mean? We need more games! Fortunately, we do have quite a few key matchups coming this weekend on paper. I will break those down for you today. Also, don’t be suprised to see a few more shocking upsets, as we did on Wednesday.
Looking ahead to the busy weekend, I added a few thoughts on the most important matchups as it pertains to bracket forecasting. These are most effictively done in three categories.
Heavyweight games: Games that will impact the top 16 teams on the seed list. Better known as protected seeds.
Bubble games: Games that will most influence teams inside or outside of the bubble.
Conference Leader games: The opportunity for the lead in any given league to change hands.
HEAVYWEIGHT GAMES
5. Iowa at Indiana, Sunday Noon ET FOX
Hawkeyes are the focus here. After suffering another heavyweight loss at the hands of Ohio State last night, they are increasingly under the microscope. Particularly the defense, who has dropped significantly to #135 in Adj. Defensive Efficiency per Ken Pomeroy. The Hoosiers put the clamps on Iowa’s vaunted offense the first time around, can they do it again? IU is in bubble trouble and can really use the victory.
4. Kansas at West Virginina, Saturday 2PM ET CBS
Two of the Big 12 powers that are trending in the wrong direction, collide tomorrow. For the winner, it will be a great springboard into the final monthe of the regular season. For the losing side, it will create further questions than answers. KU comes in a fringe 5/6 seed and WVU enters on the 4/5-seed fringe.
3. Texas at Oklahoma State, Saturday 3PM ET ABC
Longhorns head to Stillwater licking their wounds a bit. Texas was beaten by Baylor on Monday in a game that got away from them late. On the bright side, the Horns are 5-0 on the road this year. It currently serves as an impressive outlier on their resume. To keep that going, Texas needs to beat a hungry Oklahoma State team. Cowboys are also coming off a loss, at TCU on Wednesday. Adding to the Pokes motivation is the revenge factor (Texas nipped Oklahoma State, 77-74 on 12/20).
2. Wisconsin at Illinois, Saturday 2:30PM ET FOX
The Illini come in as the hotter team, winners of three in a row. The Illini are teedering on the 2/3-seed line coming in, while Wisconsin isn’t far behind. This is the first of two scheduled meetings between the two heavyweights. For the Badgers, a major road win opportunity here which would really improve their already strong resume.
1. Alabama at Missouri, Saturday Noon ET ESPN
Two straight weeks that the Tide are in our feature game of the weekend and two straight weeks at the Noon EST slot on ESPN. Bama fans hope this one goes more successfully, as last week they fell short at Oklahoma. Mizzou is a team with a stellar resume and a ton of doubters. Would a win over Alabama silence the critics once and for all? For Bama, this road win would potentially push them into a one-seed position sooner than later.
CONFERENCE LEADER GAMES
5. Southland: Nicholls State at Sam Houston State, Saturday 6PM ET ESPN+
Sam Houston State and Nicholls are two of the four teams logjammed with one-loss at the top of the Southland Standings. The Colonels got a blessing from the scheduling gods and do not play SFA or Abilene Christian this year. So this game looms large, especially for Nicholls, to take control of the conference race.
4. Summit: South Dakota at South Dakota State x2 Friday 8:30PM ET ESPN3/Saturday 8:30PM ET ESPN3
A showdown series in the Summit League. Coyotes have kicked the rust off a 1-6 start to the season to get off to a red-hot 8-0 start in league. The Jackrabbits have big non-conference wins (Utah State, Iowa State, Bradley), but an unfortunate program shutdown has limited them in conference to a 4-0 record. If history teaches us anything, these two teams will really get after each other this weekend. Great viewing ahead here.
3. Big Sky: Montana State at Weber State Saturday 2PM ET
Weber State put up 96 points in game one last night and handed the Bobcats their first loss in Big Sky play. That leads us to an important game two. A Weber sweep would create a 5-time race for the league, whereas a Bobcat win would keep them in control of the conference.
2. SoCon: Wofford at Furman, Saturday 6PM ET ESPN+
This rivalry is one of the best kept secrets in the country. The two schools have a strong distaste for one another. The game should be very intense. The Terriers and Paladins are two of the schools with two losses in the highly competitive SoCon. The winner stays in control of their destiny, while the loser will need help.
1. Pac-12: UCLA at USC, Saturday 10PM ET ESPN
The battle for Los Angelese takes on additional significance this time around. The Bruins (8-1) and Trojans (7-2) are separted by a single game and the winner has control of the league title race. Also an important win will be added to the resume of the winning team.
BUBBLE GAMES
5. St. John’s at Providence, Saturday 2PM ET FS1
The Johnnies are enfuego! Five in a row and win over Villanova on Wednesday. A road win at Providence would begin to tip the scales toward a favorable inclusion to the next bracket. As for the Friars, they took a tough loss to Seton Hall this week and need to start racking up wins. They really need this one.
4. Maryland at Penn State, Friday 7PM ET FS1
Both the Terps and the Nittany Lions share the same challenge: getting above .500 by a couple of games vs. D1 competition. Maryland is closer, just a win away from NCAA tournament consideration and Penn State is three wins away. PSU however has the higher Ken Pomeroy rating today, so this is an intriguing one. The losing team will have a lot of work ahead to get into the tourney picture.
3. North Carolina at Duke, Sunday 6PM ET ESPN
Incredibly bizarre to be breaking this one down in the bubble watch section! I think we know what’s at stake here for Duke. They need wins, and probably a cluster of them. No better way to get rolling than against your rival. UNC can add another quality road win should they pull off the win. Expect some drama as always in this one.
2. St. Bonaventure at Saint Louis, Saturday 2PM ET CBS Sports Network
Fitting that these two matchup. These are two of the toughest teams to understand, thanks to lengthy program shutdowns. Both programs have promising talent and the Bonnies have only lost once. Bonnies can solidify their grip on first place and a tournament profile with a win. For the Billekins, they need to bounce back desperately after disappointing losses to Dayton and La Salle.
1. Seton Hall at UConn, Saturday Noon FOX
UConn finally returns to the court tomorrow. After 11 days off, will be interesting to see how ready they are for a hungry Pirates team coming off an impressive win at Providence. Neither team is on solid ground right now for making the tournament, creating a quintessential bubble matchup.
Enjoy the weekend everyone!
~Rocco Miller