This past weekend was productive for a few bubble teams of the 2021 NCAA Tournament. Particularly in the SEC where Arkansas picked up its best win of the season so far with an overtime victory at Missouri, and LSU took down Tennessee at home for its best win of the season. The Valley teams split with each other, and that keeps Drake and Loyola-Chicago both in the thick of the at-large bid conversation. And Western Kentucky handled their business by sweeping a fiesty Rice team.
As for the heavyweights, Michigan came back off pause and won after being down by as many as 14. Baylor extended its pause and it remains to be seen how many or if key games need to be made up. Ohio State is still red-hot. Oklahoma outlasted West Virginia in a classic 2OT thriller. And we had confirmation from the Selection Committee on Saturday that the Top 16 here at Bracketeer.org were the same 16 they had. More on that in tomorrow’s bracket post. Stay tuned!
There are a number of matchups moving forward that will have a big impact on the bracket both for those closer to the top of the field and those that are fighting their way into consideration as bubble teams. Looking to the matchups early this week. There are a few that stand out, and everyone should be paying attention. If you are new to this column, we prefer to break this into three categories: Heavyweight games (typically teams impacting the Top 16), Conference Leader Games and Bubble Games.
HEAVYWEIGHT GAMES
5. Florida at Arkansas, Tuesday 7PM ET ESPN2
The Hogs are hot, and have to be feeling confident after the big win in Columbia over the weekend. Arkansas finally nabbed their first win over a tournament-caliber opponent and did it on the road against a Top-16 team. That’s what the doctor ordered. As for the Gators, they have been off since February 3rd when they were upset by South Carolina. Can the Gators make it to Fayetteville full strength and ready for a resume boosting road win? We shall see.
4. Rutgers at Michigan, Thursday 9PM ET FS1
Wolverines are finally back on the court, and they returned with a great final stretch at Wisconsin to win a key road game. Important to remember that the Wolverines are in a tough stretch now and play at Ohio State on Saturday. Is this is a trap game against a tough Rutgers team?
3. Iowa at Wisconsin, Thursday 7PM ET ESPN
First of two meetings between these two rivals. This year’s series may be the showcase perhaps of any season? In any event, both schools can improve their resume with a key win here. Intrguing battle when Iowa has the ball. The Wisconsin D is a top-10 defense in efficiency and Iowa’s Offense is the best in the game, efficiency wise.
2. Texas at Oklahoma, Wednesday 9PM ET ESPN
This games was moved from Tuesday to Wednesday due to bad weather. Thankfully it is on the schedule still. We have two bitter rivals here and not many teams are hotter than the Sooners. OU is coming off a double OT win at West Virginia. The Horns are looking to avenge a prior one-point defeat to the Sooners back on January 26th.
1. Virginia at Florida State, Today 7PM ET ESPN
Tonight is the night! Yes, Florida State is back on the court after surviving overtime to beat Wake Forest on Saturday. Virginia is coming in hot, winners of four straight and 11 of their last 12. Last season, these teams played a couple of low scoring games (61-56 and 54-50), favoring UVA’s pace. I’d expect that type of game tonight. Whoever gets this victory will solidify their profile. UVA looking to get on the Two-seed line, FSU has a chance to get up to the four-seed line.
CONFERENCE LEADER GAMES
5. SWAC: Prairie View A&M at Texas Southern, Thursday 9PM ET ESPNU
In the past couple of seasons, these have been the two programs at the top of the SWAC and it is typically a treat to see them get after each other in a growing rivalry. This season Jackson State is spoiling the party, still undefeated. But PVAMU is also 6-0 and looking to keep pace. The Tigers come in 4-2 and a win Thursday keeps hope alive for a SWAC title. Panthers won the first meeting, 71-67.
4. America East: Vermont at UMBC Thursday 7PM ET ESPNU
The Retrievers have asserted themselves this season as a bonafide contender in America East’s regular season race. Typically this league belongs to Vermont in recent years, and the race fades away early. Not so much this season. UMBC at 9-3 has a slight edge over 8-3 Vermont. Retrievers host the first of two on Thursday night on National television. Should be a great battle.
3. Mountain West: Utah State at Boise State, Wednesday 9PM ET CBS Sports Network
After having last week off, Utah State will need to bring their A-game to Boise. This is the first of two games of the series. Boise State really struggled with UNLV last week, but dodged a bullet by winning by two in the second game. For the league Standings, the Aggies hold a game advantage in the loss column. A sweep in Boise could go a long way to winning the league title, conversely a Boise State sweep gives them control back.
2. American: Houston at Wichita State, Thursday 7PM ET ESPN or ESPN2
The league championship may hang in the balance here. Even more key for Wichita State is this may very well be their final chance at an at-large bid. Currently the Shockers are about the ninth team out and will not get many more opportunities before Championship Week. For Houston, this is a chance to get their swagger back and be firm on the two-seed line, plus have a sweep over the Shockers and a grip on the AAC crown.
1. Atlantic 10: VCU at Richmond, Wednesday 7PM ET CBS Sports Network
The battle of Richmond doesn’t get much bigger than this year’s version. VCU has just claimed the first-place lead after knocking off Saint Bonaventure. Richmond has been shutdown, but got a tune up win yesterday over non-D1 St. Mary’s. The Spiders are on the cusp of being a tournament team, and this is massive for those hopes. A win for Richmond (4-2) would also keep them in the A10 Title chase.
BUBBLE GAMES
5. Arizona at UCLA (Bubble), Thursday 9PM ET ESPN or ESPN2
UCLA had a rollercoaster week last week at the Washington schools. A lethargic loss at Washington State and a narrow win at Washington left many wondering about the Bruins outlook ahead. A deeper look under the hood will reveal that UCLA has just a 3-5 record against the top two quadrants with a 48th ranked NET. Thin ice status is here for the Bruins and Sean Miller’s Arizona program would love to spoil it further.
4. Xavier at St. John’s (Bubble), Tuesday 8:30PM ET FS1
The Musketeers are back on the court, that’s the good news. The bad news is Xavier did not look great in their return over the weekend. A home loss to UConn that included a second half meltdown of sorts. St. John’s is the bubble team today, but that can soon be Xavier if they don’t solidify their resume with a quality road win. The Johnnies remain hungry after Butler snapped their six-game win streak last week. SJU currently is within a few spots of the cut-line and this is a home game they absolutely need.
3. Colorado at Oregon (Bubble), Thursday 11PM ET ESPN2
Perhaps a Bill Walton game here? We shall see. Either way, this is a key game for both clubs. Oregon played really well to get a desert road sweep over the Arizona schools last week and don’t want to give one back on their home court. Colorado was just upended by Cal and I’m sure the Buffs are eager to right the ship here in another Pacific Coast road swing.
2. Minnesota at Indiana, Wednesday 9PM ET Big Ten Network
This is a quite the bubble scenario. Both the Gophers and Hoosiers are in the field today. However, both resumes have flaws. Lets start with Minnesota, who is 0-7 in road games. Gophers really could use a road win to feel great about their chances of being selected and only two road games are left! This one with IU and a game near the finish at Penn State. Key chance to lock themselves in here. As for Indiana, they are doing their best to stay above water, aka .500. The sweep over Iowa carries a lot of weight but if Indiana can’t protect home court they will lose their grip on a winning season and that would likely cost them a bid.
1. LSU at Ole Miss, Thursday 5PM SEC Network
These two teams come in riding high. The host Rebels, are playing their best basketball of the season and are winners of their past four contests (including wins over Tennessee and Mizzou). LSU just took down Tennessee themselves on Saturday evening in what may have been their top performance of the year. So this should be a high-quality game, we hope. Tigers are pretty comfortably in the field now, yet the Rebels are still on the periphery. Perhaps an Ole Miss win will be enough to get them into the projected field by this weekend.
Enjoy the action this week everyone!
~Rocco Miller