What a crazy week this was already. Ohio State, Illinois, Alabama, Iowa and several other top teams have already suffered a loss. We suddenly have a Michigan State team who came back to life, and we have a resurgent St. Bonaventure team who is climbing up to levels that would make it easy for the committee to select them. The temperture only increases from here, folks. Leagues like the A10, MVC, WCC and others will wrap up their regular season in the coming days. Championship Week already commenced with the opening round of the Horizon League. On Saturday we welcome the America East and Big South opening round games. A lot happening across the 31-conference landscape.
There are always matchups that stand out above the rest each week. Now it’s crunch time. Everyone should be paying attention to these games this weekend as they will have likely the biggest impact to the next bracket projection. If you are new to this column, we prefer to break this into three categories: Heavyweight games (typically teams impacting the Top 16), Conference Leader Games and Bubble Games. Final thought for this week: The Heavyweight games are so good this weekend that Texas-Texas Tech and LSU-Arkansas missed the cut. I will add, LSU really needs a road win over a tournament team to get above an eight-seed. Let’s see if the Tigers can do it. In the mean time, check out the highlights from round one of Boise State at San Diego State, an overtime thriller!
HEAVYWEIGHT GAMES
5. Oklahoma State at Oklahoma, Saturday 3PM ET ABC
Bedlam round one is here. The Big XII is not like the Mountain West or Missouri Valley with back-to-back scheduling formats this season, but it played out this way due to make-up games/rescheduling. Game two will happen on Monday in Stillwater. In round one, its an opportunity for the Cowboys to add a prime road win over their rival. Oklahoma State is stuck in the mess of the 15-24 range of the seed list today. For the Sooners, this is a chance to get right back on the horse after slipping up at Kansas State earlier this week.
4. Florida State at North Carolina, Saturday 4PM ET ESPN
Hard to find a more dominant team lately than Florida State. The Seminoles have tremendous length and athleticsm to really put the clamps on opposing offenses. Well, this matchup is a potential clash of the bigs, as UNC is one of the few teams out there that can size up with the Noles. For the Tar Heels, who are coming off a very disappointing home loss against Marquette, a win here would help everyone forget about what happened on Wednesday and keep them safely above the bracket cut-line.
3. Illinois at Wisconsin, Saturday 2PM ET ESPN
The Badgers were beaten badly in the first matchup. Furthermore, this Wisconsin team still does not have a win against a team currently seeded higher than eight, so they can really use an elite win here to anchor off of to position themselves for a run at a protected seed. For Illinois, they are chasing the one-seed line and another high-caliber road win like this helps a lot. Ayo Dosunmu has a broken nose, I presume he will play - but how effectively?
2. Iowa at Ohio State, Sunday 4PM ET CBS
First meeting of the season for these two. Interestingly, both enter this one coming off of losses to Michigan schools. Iowa comes in after being thoroughly beaten by Michigan. The Hawkeyes are currently on the two/three seed cut-off and a win likely makes them a two-seed again. Ohio State comes in off a loss to Michigan State in which HC Chris Holtmann was ejected late. Buckeyes will want a better performance and may need it to remain a projected one-seed.
1. Baylor at Kansas, Saturday 8PM ET ESPN
The Bears put their undefeated record on the line tonight in Lawrence. Baylor finally returned to action this past Tuesday, and had a lot of issues vs. Iowa State in a narrow victory. Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua was still recovering from Covid earlier this week, unknown yet if he’ll be available. Kansas has been playing their best basketball of the season, winning five of their past six. Jayhawks may be a little extra hungry for two reasons: Be the first to knock off Baylor, and KU is coming off a tough OT loss against Texas.
CONFERENCE LEADER GAMES
5. Summit: North Dakota State at South Dakota x2, Saturday 4:30PM ET/Sunday 4:30PM ET ESPN3
Behind the tutelage of Todd Lee, this USD Coyotes season has been a roaring success. The Coyotes will likely need to sweep the third-place Bison on this final weekend of Summit League play to lock up the top-seed in the tournament. Sharpshooter A.J. Plitzuweit and Stanley Umede have been a lethal combo. For the Bison, a sweep over South Dakota would guarantee them at least a second-place finish. The other team in the mix is South Dakota State, who beat Kansas City last night. Jackrabbits have just one more game to go and will sit back and scoreboard watch this vital NDSU-USD series, should be a great one.
4. Pac-12: UCLA at Colorado Saturday 10PM ET ESPN2
Bruins just took over first place late on Thursday, following the USC loss to this Colorado team. Now it’s UCLA’s turn to try and crack the code in Boulder. It’s a tall order, Colorado is 10-1 at home this year and traditionally has one of the biggest home-court advantages in the country due to altitude. The Buffs have been stuck in the seven-seed range for a while, this another opportunity to maybe move up the board. In the event of a UCLA upset win, it would not only keep the Bruins in first, it also does wonders for their resume.
3. SoCon: Furman at Wofford, Saturday 7PM ET ESPN+
Two bitter rivals with so much at stake today as the Paladins visit Spartanburg. For Furman it’s simple, a win over Wofford would be their first Southern Conference regular season title since 2016-17 and their first outright title since the 1979-80 season. Wofford comes in with the opportunity to spoil the party for their rival, but also earn at least a co-championship on their senior day. Emotions will be running high in this one.
2. ASUN: Liberty at Bellarmine, Saturday Noon ET ESPNU
Good for the Atlantic Sun Conference. Good on them for making this a reality. The conference first of all worked with both programs to ensure this game was on the schedule after previous cancelations. The league also made the move to make at a winner take all - built for television game instead of a two-game series, which could’ve left us in a co-champs situation. Bellarmine is one of the great stories of this season. The Knights transitioned this year to D1, and have been on fire in league play. After an 0-2 start, they are now 10-2. Tied with league favorites, Liberty. This game will mean the pinnacle for the Knights’ season and they host it.
1. Mountain West: Boise State at San Diego State, Saturday 4PM ET CBS Sports Network
We teased you earlier, you had to know this was coming - right? Two tournament hopefuls Boise State and SDSU are playing for first place again this afternoon in San Diego. If this is anything like the first game, buckle up. Boise State will be looking to earn a split and avoid the possibility of being exluded from the tournament. Broncos were already swept earlier this month at Nevada, they do not have as much margin for error as the Aztecs.
BUBBLE GAMES
5. VCU at Davidson, Saturday 2PM ET ESPNU
Davidson is hanging by a thread to get a tournament at-large bid. Wildcats were just swept by St. Bonaventure and the opportunity may already be gone. At minimum, a home win in the finale against one of the top A-10 teams in VCU, would be a major confidence boost heading into the A10 Tournament. VCU looks to add another quality road win to their resume. A loss for the Rams brings them under further evaluation scrutiny, which is not ideal.
4. Michigan at Indiana (Bubble), Saturday Noon ET FOX
Earlier this week, Indiana fell out of the field entirely. This is an easier decision for the committee when Indiana or any team is just a game above .500 or at .500. Today, Indiana comes in at 12-11 with this major opportunity against Michigan in front of them. On the plus side, the Hoosiers have a sweep of Iowa, which is a positive outlier in their favor. It comes down to winning games now. It starts or stops with the Michigan game today.
3. Creighton at Xavier (Bubble), Saturday 5PM ET FOX
Xavier is free-falling like no other lately. You ave to feel for this Musketeer program, who just has not returned to the same level of play since returning from an activity pause due to Covid-19. In losing three of their last four, Xavier has not looked very competitive in the losses. In comes a streaking Creighton team with its sights on a protected seed. Big chance to turn it around today for the Musketeers, they are currently my first “NCAA Alternate team”.
2. Louisville at Duke, Saturday 6PM ET ESPN
This is a quite the bubble scenario. Duke has everyone’s attention again after beating Virginia last week and blowing out Syracuse this week. The Blue Devils are still needing to pick up a quality road win, they’ll have to wait til next week. The Louisville game provides Duke the opportunity to beat another tourney-caliber team and leave less doubt about if they belong in the field. Louisville finds themselves also quickly slipping on the bubble after inconsistent play all year, and a lack of results away from the KFC Yum! Center. A win in Cameron today would really calm the doubters and keep them solidly in the projected field.
1. Michigan State at Maryland, Sunday 2PM CBS
Two of the wilder bubble case studies in recent memory will collide on Sunday in College Park. Both teams are playing their best basketball as well, which has to make this game appealing even to the casual fan. The Terps just handled Rutgers on the road and have won four-straight. Michigan State comes in on cloud nine. They’ve had an unbelievable week as mentioned earlier. Spartans are back in the picture, but they’ll need to stay locked in for this tough road game. Should be a great contest.
Enjoy the action this weekend everyone!
~Rocco Miller