What is a Bid Thief?
One of the several joys of doing Bracketology throughout Championship Week is the constant monitoring of the conference tournaments. More specifically the 10-12 tournaments that have at least one lock to make the field of 68 as an at-large. This opens up the possibility for another non-locked team to steal that league’s automatic bid by winning the conference tournament. More importantly, this takes a bid away from a projected at-large team. Such teams are commonly known as a bid thief. This season, we had the Atlantic 10 play early and that knocked us down a bit in leagues to monitor. The picture is pretty clear that the leagues most likely to have bid thieves (also known as bid stealers) are in this order for 2021:
Conference Liklihood Rankings for 2021
American
Big East
Mountain West
Pac-12
SEC
ACC
Big 12
B1G
That leaves us with just eight for this season. A longshot for Western Kentucky in Conference USA to recieve an at-large, so I did not include CUSA in the preview.
In 2020, the Mountain West Tournament was played early in March and Utah State went from a fringe bubble team to into the field. Sadly the 2020 NCAA’s never happened as we know. Can the Aggies repeat in 2021?
Way back in 2019, we witnessed four different bid thieves win their tournaments. A rather large amount. Saint Louis (A-10), Saint Mary’s (WCC), Murray State (OVC), and Oregon (Pac-12) would not have made the 2019 field without winning their respective conference tournaments. The overall annual average is nearly 2.4 bids stolen per year. You should come to expect two to three bids taken from each bracket you follow during the season. Here at Bracketeer.org, there is special attention placed on this part of the equation.
You will notice on all of the bracket projections on this website, there is a section at the top called “Bids Stolen.” Selection Sunday is right around the corner, just five days away. The major conference tournaments are getting underway now.
It is time for a full review of what is still out there to be potentially taken away from the pool of at-large bubble hopefuls. Conferences are listed in order of liklihood of a thief.
AMERICAN
Houston is in. Wichita State is projected to be the last team above the First Four.
Potential Thieves
Memphis is the team to watch here. The Tigers took Houston to the wire this past Sunday and have the athletes and to go win this tournament. Also the draw allows the Tigers to face Houston in the Semifinals, which would give them a shot a revenge. Following that up with a title win won’t be easy on the following day.
SMU So much potential for this talented group. The Mustangs only had one bad loss all season, home to Cincinnati and struggled through a lengthy pause to end the season. They enter the AAC Tournament without playing a game since February 8th. Still, Kendric Davis and co. have the talent to win this whole thing, will be interesting to see which players are available on Friday.
Cincinnati falls under the Darkhorse category most. The Bearcats need to beat both SMU and likely Wichita State to get to the title game. Cincy did lose to Vanderbilt last week and a run seems improbable.
UCF would need to play their best ball of the season to get past Memphis right now, and then there is Houston after that - I don’t see it happening.
The Rest South Florida, Tulsa, Tulane, ECU, Temple: Good luck!
BIG EAST
Villanova, Creighton and UConn are in. St. John’s, Xavier and Seton Hall are on the outside of the bubble, all three likely need a trip to the Tournament Final in order to be selected, or even strongly considered. Xavier would be the exception. Musketeers could get a win over Creighton in the Quarterfinal round, which would be significant.
Potential Thieves
St. John’s The list must start with the Johnnies, as they are essentially at home at MSG. The Red Storm just took down Seton Hall this past Saturday and will need to do that again in the quarterfinals. Then SJU would be paired with either Villanova or a cinderella story. This Nova squad is without Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore. This bodes very well for an upset. If SJU gets to the title game, the drama and stakes will be high on Saturday.
Seton Hall If you just read about St. John’s above, you see the same path here for the Hall. Three straight wins is all that separates the Pirates from stealing a bid from a bubble team.
Xavier Several forecasters still have the Musketeers in the field. Here at Bracketeer.org, we disagree with that liklihood. Xavier can make a statement by taking care of Butler and then also Creighton. If they do that, things look a bit brighter.
Providence Friars were a projected tournament team at the beginning of the season, and they are coming off a win over Villanova. Perhaps Coach Cooely and guys are up for another run at it?
Marquette/Georgetown winner: Winner of this one gets the aforementioned shorthnaded Villanova team. Decent chance at a stunner for either.
The Rest Butler, DePaul - Doesn’t feel like much of a run will happen, but crazier things have happened.
MOUNTAIN WEST
San Diego State is in. Colorado State and Boise State are projected to be in the First Four. Utah State is on the outside of the bubble, all three likely need a trip to the Tournament Final in order to be selected. This bracket creates some dramatic scenarios. Boise State needs to beat a Nevada team who swept them last month and CSU-USU are on a crash course for a crucial semifinal.
Utah State The Aggies are so close to selection, and a main reason why they aren’t projected to be included is due to their lack of road wins. Perhaps a semifinal win over Colorado State moves the needle just enough. Time will tell. USU can repeat as champs and take all of the guessing away, then turn the Selection Sunday very hot seat over conference rivals Colorado State and Boise State.
Nevada In the past few weeks this team has defeated Boise State twice and Colorado State. Playing great basketball. They also only need three wins. They play Boise State again in the quarterfinal round, and then likely San Diego State should they win.
UNLV Always have to mention the Rebels as they are the host. On the court, this team was smoked by Wyoming in the finale, so it is a longshot.
The Rest Fresno State, Wyoming - Could make noise. San Jose State, New Mexico, Air Force - Done.
SEC
Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, LSU, Florida are locks. Ole Miss is our final team in the field, but in reality they still have plenty of work to do. We will include them in the report, since they are very much at risk overall.
Potential Thieves
Ole Miss If the Rebels just win the SEC Tournament our problems are resolved. Otherwise the Rebels almost certainly need to beat LSU on Friday. Before that can happen, Ole Miss needs to handle South Carolina. Frank Martin teams usually do not go away quietly in tournament settings.
Kentucky This is it for the Wildcats. Do they have a miracle run in them to save their season? I give them a small chance to pull it off, still a very talented group. Will need to beat Mississippi State and Alabama right out of the gate to make things interesting.
Mississippi State Same path as Kentucky, just not as much talent. I do not see four wins coming from this group in a four day span.
Georgia Bulldogs had Alabama on the ropes for a while last weekend, before letting it all slip away. If UGA can harness some of that prowess again, they could shake things up this week.
The Rest South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M are longshots.
PAC-12
Oregon, Colorado, USC, are locks. UCLA is on the cusp, and needs a decent showing in Las Vegas to solidify an at-large. Stanford needs to win the whole tournament.
Potential Thieves
Stanford has been in turmoil late in the season. It has been unfortunate because this is an outstandingly talented squad. Injuries and a long season of travel have seemingly worn down this team. Let’s see if playing Cal in the opener wakes them up and sparks a run.
Oregon State Beavers are ranked seventh in our liklihood rankings. The main reason is they only need three wins. The challenge is tough however, opening against UCLA and then will likely face rival Oregon in a potential semifinal.
Utah Been good in flashes this season. Have not done a lot of damage outside of the mountains this season. Still some playmakers on this Utes team that could make things fun.
The Rest Arizona State and Washington State have shown they can hold their own at times, but both have been way too inconsistent to make a serious run I believe. Washington and Cal cannot be expected to even win more than one game. This league is mainly down to Oregon State or bust for a thief to occur.
ACC
Virginia, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech and Georgia Tech are locks. Louisville is essentially there baring a ton of thieves this week.
Potential Thieves
Syracuse The Orange are creeping inch by inch toward the cut-line. Syracuse measures up well in most metrics when compared to other bubble teams. However, the resume lacks anything that impressive on the road, and thats a key issue. The Orange have a final chance to knock off both NC State and Virginia. Win those two games and I think Syracuse changes the landscape of their body of work. To be extra sure, they can just keep winning and steal the bid all together.
NC State Wolfpack have been playing their best basketball of the season, and that’s not great news for the Syracuse faithful. NC State is looking at the same path needing two wins minimum for serious consideration. Let’s see if the Pack stay hot.
Duke need to win five games, likely impossible. Especially considering the lack of defense lately.
The Rest Notre Dame, Wake Forest, Miami, and BC are very much longshots. Pittsburgh was already eliminated.
Highly Unlikely Bid Thief Conferences
Big 12, Big Ten
Potential Thieves
TCU Swept Oklahoma State this season, but had no such success or luck against the other six tournament caliber squads. Deep longshot here.
Indiana Writing has been on the wall for a while. The Hoosiers suddenly making a run this weekend from the 10-seed position certainly feels unrealistic.
The Rest Kansas State has way too big of a mountain to climb. Iowa State is toast. Penn State leads the rest of the B1G options, but they all have the impossible task of needing five wins against superior competition.
Summary
It is difficult to envision any of these teams winning their tournaments this week and pehaps none will. But do we ever see these things coming? Usually not.
Here is a complete Bid Thief Board with Thief Liklihood Rankings that will be tracked and updated this week:
TOP 20 in left two columns. Teams on far right will be in play in order of bids stolen.