A shortened season filled with spontaneous program shutdowns tells us one key point: each individual game has more weight this season to a program’s resume than ever before. This Sunday will mark the end of January. We will have conference tournaments starting in late February. That doesn’t leave a lot of time left for resume building opportunities. With that said, be sure to keep your eye tonight on Michigan State at Rutgers, Stanford at Arizona and Memphis at SMU.
Looking ahead to the much busier weekend, I added a few thoughts on the most important matchups as it pertains to bracket forecasting. These are most effictively done in three categories.
Heavyweight games: Games that will impact the top 16 teams on the seed list. Better known as protected seeds.
Bubble games: Games that will most influence teams inside or outside of the bubble.
Conference Leader games: The opportunity for the lead in any given league to change hands.
HEAVYWEIGHT GAMES
5. Michigan State at Ohio State, Sunday 1PM ET CBS
Spartans are jumping straight into the fire following a 20-day absence. A team who needs wins and road wins, gets a major chance on Sunday. For Ohio State, another quality win keeps them trending up with a path to a #2-seed.
4. Virginia at Virginia Tech, Saturday 6PM ET ACC Network
Hokies have had this one circled all offseason. Helping matters for Virginia Tech was an impressive performance on Wednesday at Notre Dame. However, UVA comes in red-hot themselves and winners of seven straight. Much like Ohio State, the Cavs can make a push for a #2-seed with another quality road win.
3. Kansas at Tennessee, Saturday 6PM ET ESPN
Both teams are sitting in my 3rd tier. Kansas can add a second big road win (already won at Texas Tech), which would give them likely enough clout to be a projected 3-seed again. Tennessee’s quality of play has dropped in their past three outings, this is an opportunity to create a springboard of momentum heading into the critical month of February and solidify the resume.
2. Iowa at Illinois, Friday 9PM ET FS1
Overall, this is a B1G powerhouse matchup. Two teams in the top seven of the NET rankings square off in Champaign. Both still have plenty of work to do. Iowa has a realistic shot at getting into a #1-seed by the end of the year. Hawkeyes need to shake off their loss to Indiana and get a big road win like this to make that a reality. Illinois is a team with a very high ceiling this season, but are a disappointing 1-4 in Q1 games. If the Illini want to be in strong position to make the Final Four, they need to show they can beat the Iowa’s of the CBB world.
1. Alabama at Oklahoma, Saturday Noon ET ESPN
The Big XII-SEC Challenge pairings were announced during preseason. Had I told you then that the Tide and Sooners would be in the most impactful game, you likely would’ve laughed at me. Heck, even if I told you that in December, same laugh. Well, here we are. The Tide are on a 10-game win streak and the Sooners have won four straight including the past two over Kansas and Texas. Something has to give on Saturday.
Alabama/Oklahoma are on powerful win-streaks and on a collision course Saturday afternoon in Norman.
CONFERENCE LEADER GAMES
5. SWAC: Alabama A&M at Prairie View A&M, Saturday 4PM ET
AAMU is one of the surprise unbeatens in College Hoops. Bulldogs are 4-0 and now 2-0 in SWAC play following a lenghty program shutdown. PVAMU might be the favorite to win the league, and the game will be played in Prairie View. Let’s hope for a tight battle, it would be great for the SWAC if AAMU can compete with the top of the league.
4. Sun Belt: Louisiana at Texas State x2 Friday 5PM ET ESPN+/Saturday 5PM ET ESPN+
Sun Belt was split into two divisions - East and West to help limit travel. This is now the second series between the Bobcats and Cajuns. The Cajuns are the only team thus far to knock off current Sun Belt leader Texas State (5-1) in league play. Two more battles coming up this weekend in San Marcos.
3. WAC: New Mexico State at Grand Canyon x2 Friday 9PM ET, Saturday 9PM ET
So many storylines, I don’t know where to begin. NMSU has had a nightmare campaign with three different shutdowns and not being permitted to play in their own state. The Aggies only managed to play one D1 game thus far, an unfortunate loss to CS-Northridge. This is a major trash-talking rivalry on the West Coast, that the Aggies have complete ownage over the Lopes throughout GCU’s short D1 history. New GCU Head Coach Bryce Drew has pieced together a formaidable roster. Is this the year the Lopes finally break through and make it a true rivalry? We will learn quite a bit in these two games.
2. Southland: Sam Houston State at Stephen F. Austin, Saturday 4PM ET ESPNU
Bearkats have won 10 straight including a showdown victory recently over fellow title contender, Abilene Christian. Now, SHSU has to go on the road to beat perennial Southland powerhouse Stephen F. Austin. SFA is likely to serve their NCAA ban this season, yet that also would make games like this even bigger. It certainly won’t be easy for SHSU, figures to be intense in Nacogdoches on Saturday.
1. Mountain West: Boise State at Colorado State, Friday 11PM ET FS1
A late night, Friday night treat in the Mountain West. Both of these teams are not only fighting for the MWC regular season crown, but also potential at-large bids. CSU stunned the Broncos on Wednesday in a 22-point statement win. Should be much closer in round two.
BUBBLE GAMES
5. Arkansas (Bubble) at Oklahoma State, Saturday 4PM ET ESPN2
Arkansas has climbed up to #28 in NET and are playing efficient basketball. Their resume could still use a bump. Great opportunity here on the road against a tough Oklahoma State squad.
4. Stanford (Bubble) at Arizona State, Saturday 10PM ET ESPN2
Stanford’s win over UCLA last week gave the Cardinal a bit of room to breathe. But here they are this weekend on the always rough desert swing. To make matters more risky, ASU is currently 4-8. A loss to this team would not reflect well for Stanford.
3. Loyola-Chicago at Missouri State, Sunday 3PM ET CBS Sports Network
Loyola-Chicago is skyrocketing up the NET rankings. Missouri State just lost two tight battles against 15-0 Drake. This sets up for a crucial 2-game battle in Springfield. This opener on Sunday will set the tone for if Missouri State can hang in the at-large picture long-term. It will also serve as a fringe Q1/Q2 road opportunity for the Ramblers.
2. Villanova at Seton Hall (Bubble), Saturday 3:30PM ET FOX
For a regular season game, it doesn’t get much bigger than this for the Hall. After Wednesday’s brutal loss vs. Creighton and a 2-pont loss to Villanova last week - this win became paramount. The Pirates already have seven losses and can’t afford to keep letting them pile up. Besides, a win over the Wildcats would do wonders for their tourney hopes.
1. Saint Louis at Richmond, Friday 6:30PM ET ESPN2
This has suddenly shaped up to be quite the bubble matchup. SLU finally returned to action earlier this week. That came along with some rust in a tough home loss to Dayton. The Billikens now are 7-2 and do not have a significant road win. Putting them immediately in the large group of bubble teams. Speaking of, Richmond keeps hanging around the bubble themselves. Despite bad losses to La Salle and Hofstra, the Spiders do have two Q1 wins right now and that starts to stand out in current bubble comparison exercises. Big game all-around.
Enjoy the weekend everyone!
~Rocco Miller