Bracketology 02.08.20 - Bracket Reveal Saturday

Welcome to Bracket Reveal Saturday
- The NCAA will be revealing the top 16 overall seeds in what has become an annual February tradition called the NCAA March Madness Bracket Preview. The show takes place today at approx. 12:30pm EST during the pregame show prior to Kentucky at Tennessee. The purpose of the reveal is to get the selection committee together to do a dry-run of the selection, seeding, and bracketing process. They will only work through the top four seed-lines for the interest of time. Reports have said they evaluated approximately 24 resumes to determine the top 16. This allows us bracketologists to get a glimpse inside the thinking of the new committee in 2020 and additional insight on the NCAA’s year and a half year-old metric, the NET.

Some questions I have personally:

1. Where will Dayton land? It has been difficult to pin-point where Dayton belongs, due to their lack of opportunities.

2. San Diego State is undefeated. Do I have them correctly #4 overall, or does the committee give them more credit?

3. Maryland won a big road game at Illinois tonight, is that enough to get them a 2-seed? (Hint: I say yes)

4. Who lands at #16 overall? I believe Penn State does, but an argument can be made for Kentucky or even Michigan State to a lesser extent.

Regardless of the reveal, it will be an amazing day of basketball. And an insightful opportunity to be even further prepared for Selection Sunday. I will also be participating in a teleconference hosted by Kentucky AD Mitch Barnhardt, which allows media members to ask questions to committee members about the Bracket Show. I will report back with updates and further information here on bracketeer.org.

Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s Coverage
The excitement continues here at bracketeer.org on Saturday with the game coverage of Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s, in what promises to be one of the biggest games I will cover this season. Tip-off is set for 10pm EST. Be sure to follow along here and on twitter.

Bracketology Notes:
- In this bracket update, the major move happened late Friday with Maryland gaining a much needed quality road win. After further comparison, I like Maryland’s body of work just above Florida State. It was just enough to get the Terps on the 2-seed line. FSU and Maryland were both already in the South region, so the change worked out to be a simple swap between two and the three seed lines.

- Another difficult decision between Ohio State and Marquette took place for the final six-seed. Ohio State has accumulated higher quality wins but also has more stains on their resume. By comparison, Marquette does not have as great of wins, but they’ve gone relatively unscathed with the only “bad loss” coming against Providence at Home. Historically, the committee will slightly favor a team with the bigger wins in these cases if all other parts are close to equal. That gave me just enough confidence to seed Ohio State as the final six-seed.

- Xavier and Rhode Island continue to crawl up the board. Both are playing very well and now hold the top two 10-seed positions. Xavier won at DePaul and Rhode Island won at UMass earlier this week.

- The last four teams for selection was as difficult as ever today. Virginia and Memphis held on to two of the spots, and Stanford tumbled into another spot after losing at Utah. That left Mississippi State, Arizona State, Purdue, ETSU, and VCU for the final spot. After a deep dive into all five resumes, Arizona State to me stood out due to what they’ve accomplished away from home. The Sun Devils have the most quality Away/Neutral wins out of the bunch, and this is always a key consideration for selection. Especially the final selection. So the Sun Devils win out for now.

- Cincinnatil broke into the field as the new AAC Auto-Bid representative, effectively replacing Tulsa. Cincy had a season-changing win at Wichita State on Wednesday evening and Tulsa got beat at home against UConn, which opened the door for the Bearcats to leap into a share of the conference lead. Since Cincy has beat both of their fellow co-leaders Houston and Tulsa, the Bearcats claim the inside track to the top seed in the AAC Tourney.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Cincinnati
Big Sky - Montana
CAA - Charleston
Ivy - Princeton

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Cincinnati)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Purdue, Mississippi State, VCU, East Tennessee State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Minnesota, NC State, Richmond, Georgetown
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Bracketology 02.03.20 - Bubble Focus

Bracketology Notes:
- No changes yet on the top line. I wrestled with the idea of reordering Gonzaga, Kansas, and San Diego State in a few different varieties. My conclusion was that there wasn’t enough clarity yet to justify the shuffle. All three resumes have strong characteristics that are defensible, so I’m going to let this play out. Louisville and Duke were the beneficiaries of some carnage around them on the seed list. Seton Hall, FSU, Villanova, and Oregon all took a loss this past week. Speaking of Villanova, Creighton made the biggest move to #13 on the Big Board after getting a very impressive double digit win at Villanova.

- Auburn picked a nice home win over Kentucky on Saturday night plus the Tigers still have just two losses, both respectable (at Florida and at Alabama). Admittedly, I may be a little too low on Auburn, but I just simply like the resumes above them better for now. Their SEC counterpart, Arkansas, is coming off an important win at Alabama that now has the Razorbacks sitting comfortably in the 7-seed range.

- TJ Haws and his gutsy three-pointer from long distance to beat Saint Mary’s on Saturday night not only created a frenzy in Provo, but it really shows that this team can win the big games. The Cougars resume was creeping toward the cut-line, thanks to Haws they are much safer now. Rhode Island completed the season sweep of VCU on Friday night in convincing fashion. You cannot find many teams hotter than the URI Rams out there currently, now winners of eight in a row.

Bubble Talk:
- Virginia is back in the projected field for the first time since the early part of the season. The ‘Hoos have been playing better basketball of late, evidenced by their win over Florida State. In an ACC with three superior teams and not much else, bubble teams like Virginia need to pick up wins against the big three (Louisville, Duke, FSU) to really begin feeling better about their tournament chances. UVA now has an above .500 record against the top two quadrants, a Quad 1A win, and a 5-3 Away/Neutral record. Just enough to stand out above the rest.

- Memphis is in serious danger of losing a spot soon. The Tigers managed to survive this week against UCF and UConn in close calls. Just when Tiger fans thought they could breathe, the news of D.J. Jeffries came down. Jeffries will miss 4-6 weeks with a knee injury, a major blow to this Memphis roster. Memphis had impressive wins in non-conference at Tennessee and vs. NC State, sadly those are not looking quite as valuable today. Like UVA, Memphis has a winning record still against the top two quads, and a 5-3 A/N record, which puts them projected for the First Four.

- Mississippi State is a team trending in the right direction. It has taken the Bulldogs a lot of work to get out of the early season hole they played themselves into. A home loss to Louisiana Tech, a semi-home loss to New Mexico State, and an 0-3 start to SEC play had things looking bleak in Starkville. Since that time the Bulldogs are 5-1 with lone loss coming at Oklahoma by one. MSU now boasts wins at Florida and against Arkansas, plenty to build on going forward.

- Today’s last team in is Xavier. The Musketeers have been on the wrong side of the bubble lately, but a dominant win against a projected 2-seed, Seton Hall, has completely changed things. Xavier proved they can beat just about anyone when they are clicking, makes them a potentially dangerous tournament team. Being in the Big East, many more big games are ahead to improve their seed and the only perceived bad loss thus far on the resume is at Wake Forest.

- Arizona State, VCU, Georgetown are the first three teams out today. I am singling them out intentionally to discuss. Usually by this time of year their are not enough good resumes to fill 36 at-large slots. Well I think these three have a really good case to be fair, and today we actually have 39 worthy resumes for selection. That is destined to change with thousands of games to be played, but a stronger bubble than usual exists thus far. Keep in mind, Tulsa is stealing one projected bid still. So if no bids were stolen, ASU would have a spot in the field. East Tennessee State is not far off the mark either. Keep all of these teams on your radar closely. Below is a quick glimpse at the bubble picture.

2/3/20 Bubble Watch. Cut line is between Xavier and Arizona State.

New Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Louisville
B1G - Maryland
Big Sky - Eastern Washington
C-USA - North Texas
MAC - Bowling Green
MEAC - North Carolina A&T
Pac-12 - Colorado
SoCon - Furman
Summit - South Dakota State

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Tulsa)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Arizona State, VCU, Georgetown, East Tennessee State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: DePaul, Richmond, NC State, Cincinnati
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Bracketology 01.20.20 - Louisville Leap

Bracket Notes:
- The top seed line survived the weekend. Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas, and SDSU all picked up wins. However, between the 2 thru 4 seed lines we saw a lot of chaos. Butler lost twice last week and fell into a 3-seed today, and also lost their position to play in St. Louis and/or Indianapolis. Louisville makes the biggest jump up after getting a colossal road win at Duke, which really polishes a resume that needed some help. Iowa snuck onto the 4-seed line after several teams above them lost over the weekend.

- Houston’s win in Wichita on Saturday put the Cougars away from the bubble-picture for now and into the meat of the bracket. They arrive today on the 8-seed line and they’ve surpassed weaker resumes like Indiana, Oklahoma, and Rutgers.

- Virginia Tech’s home loss against Syracuse puts them in the danger zone of missing the field. History tells us the Hokies poor non-conference schedule strength puts them at risk of being able to earn one of the final at-large bids. They are out as of today.

- Purdue would normally be our last team in, but we do have a bid thief for today. The Tulsa Golden Hurricane currently own the tiebreaker and would be the top-seed in the AAC Tournament if it started today. I prefer to capitalize on such scenarios to demonstrate the liklihood of a bid being stolen in March, and to learn a few things about more teams each week. So for today, congrats Tulsa and I’m sorry Purdue. Tulsa gets Memphis at home on Wednesday, so we will see if they can hang on.

We have a slew of new Conference leaders today represented below as Automatic Bids:
ACC - Florida State
AAC - Tulsa
America East - Vermont
CUSA - Western Kentucky
MAAC - Monmouth
Pac-12 - USC (See unbelievable highlights below, if you haven’t already)
Summit - North Dakota State

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Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Bids Stolen: 1 (Tulsa)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Purdue, Virginia Tech, Xavier, Washington
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Minnesota, Saint Louis, Virginia, Arizona State
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Bracketology 01.18.2020 - Weekend Primer

Bracket Notes:
- San Diego State is the final No. 1 seed, but loses its West Region route to Gonzaga in the process.  The Aztecs perfect resume is the difference for now in comparing them to Butler. They are the last remaining undefeated team and have wins away from home against: Iowa a 5-seed, Creighton a 6-seed, and BYU in position to be a 9-seed.

- Speaking of BYU, they were moved in a rare occurance down to the 10-seed line for today due to an impossible 9-seed line scenario that would’ve not met their Thursday-Saturday requirement.

- Virginia Tech has a non-conference strength of schedule that is in the mid-300’s. This will be a major issue for the Hokies as long as they stay in the hunt for an at-large bid. No team has recieved an at-large with a higher seed than a 9-seed with a 250+ NCSOS. For today, since I do think they’ve earned a spot based on current reults, we will include them and place them as a 9-seed.

- Washington slips back into the field for now after an impressive win over Oregon State. The race for these final spots is beyond complicated. The main things I am looking at for now are NCSOS, Records away from home, records against teams in or near the field, and combined Q1/Q2/Q3 records. Got all that? Okay good.

- We welcome the Manhattan Jaspers and Hartford Hawks (postgame interview below) to the field for the first time after they each took out previous conference leaders’ Quinnipiac and Stony Brook respectively. East Tennessee State is locked in as the new SoCon leader after Furman fell on Friday night at Wofford.

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Bids Stolen: 0 (Unlikely. Still rolling with zero for now.)

*-BYU bumped to 10-seed due to bracketing rules.

Bracketology 01.14.20 - Welcome to 2020!

The first official bracket projection of 2020 is here! What that means is for the first time since the preseason, all teams have been selected, seeded, and placed into the bracket using the NCAA’s policies and procedures. So here is my best personal simulation of the committee’s annual exercise based on the results that have happened to date.

Seeding Summary:
- Baylor edged out Duke with a slightly better overall body of work. The win at Kansas really tips the scales for now.
- Auburn is inching closer to the top two lines, but still needs to play and win a challenging road game (Q1) before I can guarantee that leap. The chances are coming soon.
- Villanova has emerged from a slow start to the season to creep up into the 12th overall spot, and the final 3-seed. The Wildcats now hold two elite (Quad 1A) after beating Creighton on the road. Villanova is the only team to win at Creighton this year.
- Wisconsin snuck up the list after my deep review. Badgers have three (two elite) impressive road wins, a strong strength of schedule, and the Badgers’ NET rating has them in the Top 25 for today.
- Illinois went from a bubble team to an 8-seed in a week. The Illini won at the aforementioned Wisconsin and beat Rutgers in a defensive battle. Some of this Big Ten canibalism is actually benefitial for the majority of the league.
- Charlotte is the last remaining unbeaten team in Conference USA and slips in as the final 14-seed. A projected matchup against FSU in Tampa, would be fun for the 49er fans.

Final Selections:
- Unlike previous Big Board updates, for this exercise I was able to evaluate more comprehensive Quadrant data. And comparing up to 40+ bubble resumes is not easy to do! So you’ll see a reshuffle of the teams in today’s post.
- VCU, Utah, Xavier, and NC State head to Dayton. The real surprise was Xavier here. I had them barely out last week, then they lost at home to Creighton. So why are they in?….After careful examination, the Musketeers have a 5-5 record against the top two quads, and a perfect 3-0 record in Quad 3. Thats 8-5 in the top three quads. In comparing them to the others below them, it stands out as a stronger body of work.
- Miami, USC, Washington, ETSU are the first four out of the field. Miami and USC were previously lower, they are both one quality win away from jumping in. Miami’s win at Illinois is aging well, and they are 6-5 against the Top three quads. The NET ranking at 82 needs a boost however.
- Big Ten has 11 teams in the field. And they are in quite comfortably for today.

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly unlikely by March, but we will roll with it for now.)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Miami, USC, Washington, ETSU

NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Virginia Tech, Tennessee, St. John's, Minnesota

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