Bracketology 02.24.20 - What a Weekend!

Bracket Notes:

- What a weekend we had across College Basketball. A weekend that saw 10 of 32 conference leaders lose. A weekend that saw the maximum of three #1 seeds losing, due to two of them facing each other. Maryland also lost, and knocked themselves out of the opportunity to get onto the top line. The new #1 overall spot belongs to the Kansas Jayhawks after the major payback win in Waco over Baylor.

The comparison between the two resumes (KU and Baylor) is close. Baylor has the slightly better record, but Kansas has the 11 wins over the field compared to eight for the Bears and the much stronger out of conference schedule. They are virtually even in most other areas. Kansas by a nose here.

Dayton was pursuing the top line after San Diego State’s stunning home loss to UNLV. It turned out that the Aztecs prevailed as the fourth #1 seed due to having a stronger overall body of work. Surging Creighton is really helping the SDSU cause actually, Iowa and BYU are helping tremendously as well. This really establishes SDSU still as more deserving than Dayton for now, another loss would perhaps tip the scales for the Flyers.

As for the Blue Jays, they have not lost since the Bracket Reveal Show (5-0) with wins at Seton Hall, at Marquette and over Butler. Creighton was in consideration for a four-seed on the show, but has seen several teams above them fall during their win streak. The overall body of work compares favorably by a slim margin over Maryland and Florida State.

- Ohio State and Michigan have had rollercoaster campaigns in 2019-20, but have recently stepped up their play. The Buckeyes beat up Purdue over the weekend and Michigan took care of Indiana with ease. The Wolverines also had the majority of their struggles without Isaiah Livers, losing five of those ten contests. Could be a factor in the committee discussions.

- Arizona State, has made an exceptional jump to first place in the Pac-12 Conference. ASU’s resume is improving after each win, which now has them as the top eighth seeded team. The final 8-seed came down to Saint Mary’s and Indiana. The Gaels have done significantly more than the Hoosiers away from home in an otherwise tight comparison. Interestingly enough, the two will face each other in today’s projected bracket.

- Providence is not only a projected tournament selection today for the first time all season, but they really jumped up on the seed list with their now five total wins over Top 21 teams on the seed list. The sweep over Georgetown doesn’t hurt either. Friars are up to a 10-seed today, but need to be continue winning going forward. They are 16-12 today and need to stay a couple of games over .500 to stay in the field at minimum.

It was an exciting win for the Friars over #19 Marquette on Saturday, February 22nd, 2020. www.friars.com

- UCLA is another team skyrocketing up the Big Board. The Bruins stayed red hot over the weekend by completing the very rare sweep over the mountain schools. The final at-large bid came down to a very close four-way race between Memphis, Stanford, Oklahoma, and UCLA. The Sooners have played themselves into a rough position after being safe most of the year. They currently have just one win over the projected field (West Virginia at home) and that win is losing weight too. OU has just a 5-9 Away/Neutral record and they are also 8-11 against the top two quadrants. Trouble in Norman. UCLA has easily the strongest wins among the quartet, a sweep over Colorado and a win in Tucson are under their belt. However, the Bruins non-conference strength of schedule is a risky 215. Stanford also is a risky 214. That ended up being the ex-factor to select Memphis as the final team in today. The Tigers, coming off an important win over Houston on Saturday, also have a 7-5 record against the top two quadrants and a .500 record (5-5) in games away from FedEx Forum.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Cincinnati
Big XII - Kansas
MEAC - North Carolina A&T
OVC - Belmont
Pac-12 - Arizona State

Noteworthy projected matchups:
(2) Dayton - (15) Wright State: Battle of Dayton to be played in Cleveland.
(8) Texas Tech - (9) Houston: Lone Star State showdown in Spokane.
(3) Villanova - (14) Hofstra: Jay Wright against his former school.
(7) Wisconsin - (10) Florida: Rematch of 2017 Sweet 16 matchup won by Gators on Chris Chiozza buzzer beater
(7) Arizona - (10) Providence: Rematch of OT thriller in 1997 Elite Eight.

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Cincinnati)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Stanford, Oklahoma, UCLA, Richmond
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: UNC-Greensboro, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgetown
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Bracketology 02.22.20

Pre-Saturday Bracketology from Bracketeer.Org

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
ASUN - Liberty
NEC - St. Francis (PA)
Pac-12 - Arizona
SoCon - East Tennessee State

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 0 (Highly Unlikely)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Mississippi State, Stanford, Providence, Purdue
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Cincinnati, UNC-Greensboro, South Carolina, Memphis
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @roccomiller8

Bracketology 02.18.20 - Lessons Learned

A Look Back at 2019:
Around this time of year I find it very useful to take a look back at lessons learned from previous selection committees. The NET era began in the 2018-19 season, thus we only have one true season to do an apples to apples comparison with. Among the snubs of the 2019 NCAA field were two teams I’d like to highlight, TCU and Texas. A rather fascinating duo at surface level, considering they were both members of the Big XII, the top-rated conference last season. So, why did the committee leave these teams out? Why were so many bracketologists wrong about TCU (including Rocco)? Let’s dive in…

2019 Texas
First, here is the 2019 Texas Resume via Warren Nolan, please note that Texas won the NIT and the NIT results are included below post Selection Sunday:

The Horns were projected by many for most of the season to be a tournament team. Texas had big wins under their belt over North Carolina (N), Purdue (H), Kansas State (A), and Kansas (H). The one piece of criteria in which folks overlooked, is a simple yet important detail. The amount of total losses the Longhorns racked up over the year and in the ultra competitive Big 12 Conference - 16 total. No team with over 15 losses in a season has been selected as an At-Large. Texas would have broken the model, but did not. This was a clear message from the committee that the 16+ loss mark is a deal-breaker.

2019 TCU
Our next case-study requires a bit more deep-diving to really get to the outcome. This is the resume of the 2018-19 TCU Horned Frogs, another team who made a run to the NIT Final Four. So please disregard the late March/early April results:

Before we dig in, here is the complete 1-68 Seed List from last year for your review. You will recall that Belmont, Temple, Arizona State and St. John’s were the last four teams selected and it was also announced that the first team out was UNC-Greensboro.

How can this occur when 182/195 bracketologists on the Bracket Matrix projected TCU in the field, you ask?

Let’s take a closer look. TCU was just 3-9 against the top quadrant with one win in Q1A (At Iowa State). The At Texas win was in the NET 40’s on Selection Sunday, making that win a Q1B win at time of selections. The Frogs were 6-4 against Q2 (removing the NIT wins). They only had two true road wins during the season (Iowa State, SMU). The three neutral court wins came against teams well outside of the field (USC, Ind. State, Bucknell). And they contributed three total home wins over the field (ISU, Florida, and Baylor).

Given the above information, I think TCU’s fate boiled down to two main sticking points.

1) Winning pct. against the top two Quadrants: 3-9 vs Q1, 9-13 vs. top 2 Q’s.
2) Did not accomplish enough away from home. The Frogs had 10 true road opportunities in the top two quadrants and only won twice (Iowa State, SMU. Only Iowa State made the field).

So, how does this apply to 2020?

Some of you may know where I am going with this, and if you said the 2020 Big Ten Conference, you are correct. The Big 10 has more teams (14) than the Big 12 (10), and that basic fact adds even more complexity than we faced in 2019. The decisions and precedents set last year are more than likely to have impacts on a multiple Big Ten programs on March 15th. Let’s take a look at who they might be.

Compares to 2019 Texas (16 losses):
1) Purdue: 14-12 overall record. Remaining Games: At Wisconsin, At Iowa. Home: Michigan, Indiana, Rutgers. Boilermakers have to go at least 3-2 here. A third loss means they will hit 16 losses in the Big 10 Tournament.
2) Minnesota: 12-12 overall record. Remaining Games: At NW, At Wisconsin, At Indiana. Home: Indiana, Maryland, Nebraska. Gophers do not have the same level of wins as Purdue, they need to go 4-2 or 5-1 to have any chance from here.
3) Indiana: 16-9 overall record. Remaining Games: At Minnesota, At Purdue, At Illinois. Home: Penn State, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Hoosiers do not have the resume strength without some of these wins. It’s all on the line for the Hoosiers here, they will need to win at least two games mathematically - but likely need three or four of these wins.
4) Wisconsin: 15-10 overall record. Remaining Games: At Michigan, At Indiana. Home: Purdue, Rutgers, Minnesota, Wisconsin. Badgers have a great current resume, but a late collapse would be the best comp to Texas of these four teams. Badgers still need to get at least two wins to be anywhere near safe.

You can see above that the 20-game conference schedule of the Big Ten makes it a nearly impossible mathematical possibility for the league to send over 11 members to the NCAA’s, even in a year like this one. Nine is the most likely number based on what we know thus far.

Compares to 2019 TCU (rough Quad records, and/or lack of wins away from home):
1) Purdue: Again the Boilers are in double-danger based on what we know. They are 3-9 vs Quad 1 (one win over Q1A), 7-10 against the top two Quads, and two additional losses in Quad 3 to add to the concern.
2) Minnesota: 4-10 vs. Q1/6-12 vs. Top 2 Q’s. Gophers have a lot of work to do.
3) Indiana: 4-7 vs. Q1/6-9 vs. Top 2 Q’s. Also Hoosiers lack any road wins over any Q1 or Q2 opponents. Two neutral court wins over UConn and Notre Dame give Indiana something to build on, but a true road win is likely needed down the stretch.
4) Rutgers: 2-6 vs. Q1/7-7 vs. Top 2 Q’s. It is well-known at this point that the Scarlet Knights need another win or two away from home. The only one to speak of is at Q3 Nebraska thus far.

In summary, both 2019 Texas and 2019 TCU will continue to be relavant examples for the rest of the 2020 Big 10 season and something to keep in mind while watching the string play out.

Bracketology Notes:

- Our rock steady top four, has become a rock steady top seven. Duke, Dayton, and Maryland are stabilizing in the five, six, and seven spots respectively. Teams in the 8-20 positions is where things get pretty difficult. Florida State found themselves as the eighth team selected, but mainly due to Seton Hall, Louisville, West Virginia, and Auburn all losing over the weekend. It made FSU practically the last man standing. You factor those four teams losing over the weekend combined with more impressive wins from Creighton, Penn State, and Kentucky plus a resurgence from Oregon and you start to comprehend the chaos in this area of the Seed List. I’ll admit I am slowly bringing Penn State up based solely on the negative Bracket Preview information we witnessed. Despite that, it is enough to get the Nittany Lions into the final 3-seed position today.

- Ohio State and Michigan have had rollercoaster campaigns in 2019-20, but have recently stepped it up. The Buckeyes beat up Purdue over the weekend and Michigan took care of Indiana with ease. Arizona also pulled off a Bay Area road sweep, and their NET is up to 8th besides a somewhat unparallel resume.

Remy Martin and Alonzo Verge Jr. each had 22 points Sunday at California as Arizona State collected an 80-75 win. ASU shot 47% from the field and received a double-double from Romello White (10 points and 10 rebounds). The win is ASU's fifth in a row, the program's first five-game Pac-12 win streak in 10 years.

- Speaking of Bay Area sweeps, the Arizona State Sun Devils pulled it off themselves. ASU now posseses six true road wins and the resume continues to improve and they have finally cracked the top 50 in NET. Bobby Hurley’s bunch is getting hot at the right time. Tomorrow night will be massive in the SoCon as ETSU hosts Furman. Each team has just two losses in conference, with Furman currently holding the tiebreaker. The Paladins have been a projected bid-stealer here for the past couple of weeks, this is an opportunity to really gain separation. I will be reporting live from ETSU tomorrow for this one, follow along here at Bracketeer.org.

- Cincinnati was able to survive at East Carolina on Sunday, giving them control of the American. With Arkansas and NC State losing over the weekend, Cincy now has the resume to be invited to the dance regardless. The two at-large spots now belong to Georgetown and Richmond. The Hoyas were phenomenal in their win on the road at Butler and now have a worthy body of work that warrants selection. Richmond picked up the final bid after a narrow comparison against Utah State. The Spiders win over Wisconsin, at URI, and overall body of work was barely enough.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Cincinnati
ACC - Duke
MAAC - Siena
MEAC - Norfolk State
Pac-12 - Oregon
SEC - Kentucky

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Furman)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Utah State, Purdue, Alabama, Mississippi State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Stanford, NC State, Arkansas, South Carolina
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @roccomiller8

Bracketology 02.14.20

A quick Friday projection for Valentine’s Day Weekend. Be sure to come back here on Monday for a full breakdown.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
OVC - Austin Peay
Big South - Radford

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Furman)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Cincinnati, Utah State, Stanford, Richmond
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Georgetown, Memphis, VCU, Mississippi State
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @roccomiller8

Bracketology 02.11.20 - Purdue Pounces

Bracketology Notes:

- All previous bracket projections have been modified to fit what we learned during Saturday’s NCAA Bracket Preview show. The main adjustments since the show occured with Seton Hall’s win at Villanova, which yielded a Pirates jump over both West Virginia and Florida State. The Mountaineers themselves lost to Oklahoma following the show. That also allowed Maryland to assume the final 2-seed (which was projected here on Friday). Auburn was able to pass Villanova and Oregon after they each lost on Saturday. And Kentucky snuck up to the 14th position as a result of Butler also losing.

- Penn State became the most difficult team to place following the NCAA Preview teleconference. I learned during the call that their Non-Confrerence strength of schedule is a big issue preventing them from entering the top 16. I would personally vote to have them as a 4-seed, but now I will need to proceed with caution after Saturday. So the Nittany Lions sit in the 5-seed range today. Also, Houston has gained control of the AAC after demolishing Wichita State on Sunday. This means no more bid steal projection is coming from the AAC and Houston has moved into 7-seed position.

- Oklahoma was teetering with the bubble last week, but a vital win over West Virginia has the Sooners in a much better position now. Purdue made some impressive noise last week by destroying Iowa and then winning convincingly at Indiana over the weekend. It was the first road win over a projected tournament team this season for the Boilermakers. The two wins not only improved their NET and resume, but also put the Boilers four games over .500. A key column to follow for bubbling Big Ten teams, given all of the competition on a nightly basis.

Boilermakers earned their first road win over a projected tournament team - Indiana. Courtesy: BTN.

- The last four teams for selection was a challenge again today. I looked at ten teams for what amounted to seven spots. Northern Iowa is an auto-bid in that mix, the other six spots are the final at-large bids. The last bid came down to struggling Wichita State or Mississippi State. The Bulldogs do have a better NET (41) than the Shockers (50), but the MSU top two quad record is just 4-6 right now. If Missisippi State takes care of business with their remaining schedule, they will eventually pass resumes like Wichita State on the seed list. For today, the Shockers are in.

- ETSU was also selected as an at-large. With Furman taking the Automatic SoCon Bid, that now gives us a projected two-bid SoCon. The chances of this playing out will require ETSU to lose in the conference tournament to a team like Furman or UNCG, maybe Wofford or WCU. Then surviving a major sweat on Selection Sunday. The Bucs moved up 11 places to #43 in the NET last week following two road wins, putting themselves in decent shape for a bid. With the AAC not stealing a bid in this projection, our total bid stealer count remains one overall.

New Conference leaders since previous bracket. Represented below as Automatic Bids:
AAC - Houston
Big Sky - Montana
CAA - Hofstra
Ivy - Yale
MAAC - Rider
MEAC - N.C. Central
SEC - Auburn
SWAC - Prairie View A&M

Bracket projections are based on 2019-20 NCAA Committee Principles and Selection Process. Projected Conference Champions are based on projected Auto-Bid winners.

At-Large Bids Stolen: 1 (Furman)

FIRST FOUR TEAMS OUT: Mississippi State, VCU, Memphis, Utah State
NEXT FOUR TEAMS OUT: Richmond, Cincinnati, NC State, Georgetown
FOLLOW ME ON TWITTER: @roccomiller8